Beyond Belief said:
If something develops relatively close to Florida, the preferred track appears to be across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A more northerly track towards the Carolinas is also one of the model solutions. If something develops further from Florida, the preferred track is northeastward towards Bermuda. We'll just have to wait and see where the focus of development may be along the old front
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=458&tstamp=200608
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST WITH ITS SOUTHERN MOST PORTION EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR 30N
NEAR THE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR HAS BUILT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BRINGING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER. IN THE REGION OF CONFLUENCE
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH LIES A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 34N57W TO A 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 29N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED
WITH THE 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED AS SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THERE ARE
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN THE ATLC...NONE OF WHICH ARE
GENERATING ANY ORGANIZED AREAS OF CLOUDINESS MUCH LESS SHOWERS.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR
72W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDING NE THROUGH CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 68W. A FEW SMALL/BENIGN
UPPER LOWS LIE E OF THIS AREA...NEAR 27N48W...26N35W AND THE
LAST NEAR 15N33W. AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE COAST OF W
AFRICA OUT TO NEAR 35W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 20N.
ESSENTIALLY...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
AT THE SFC...FAIR WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRES RIDGING IS THE THEME
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N32W TO
ANOTHER 1020 MB NEAR 27N56W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N29W HAS A SFC
TROF WHICH EXTENDS TO 29N37W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED SQUEEZING OUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
THE LOW AND TRAILING TROF.
