Geographic Profiling

[dotr]

Is there a link to a detailed LISK map on the forum? I can't find one in the main index. TIA

There are several iirc, here is one of them for now.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=warn...UICSgC&biw=1304&bih=625#imgrc=ImyjlkbzoAVmDM:

 

[matou]

Thanks dotr. Is there a marked map with the original location or last known location of the victim (if known) and where they were located? I've been looking at geographic maps of long island and learning about the area. I notice that Atlantic City is south of there. I think the murderer lives south of Long Island, probably in New Jersey. I don't know much about this area at all, please forgive me!

 

[margarita25]

I wanted to take a picture of the great map of Ocean Parkway provided on the docuseries. Ill try tonight, assuming that is within TOS.

 

[margarita25]

So, diving into this whole geographic profiling thing, I'm going to start with a couple of my posts re: this from other threads:

"Thanks for reminding me about Rigel.

"Rossmo's formula is a geographic profiling formula to predict where a serial criminal lives. The formula was developed and patented[1] by criminologist Kim Rossmo and integrated into a specialized crime analysis software product called Rigel. The Rigel product is developed by the software company Environmental Criminology Research Inc. (ECRI), which Rossmo co-founded.[2]"

Source: Wikipedia / Rossmo's Formula:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossmo's_formula "

Source:
Forum CRIMES Serial Killers
AZ - Seven killed, 3 injured in West Phoenix serial shootings, April-June 2016
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...hoenix-serial-shootings-April-June-2016/page3

 

[margarita25]

Source link:
Forum CRIMES Serial Killers
AZ - Seven killed, 3 injured in West Phoenix serial shootings, April-June 2016
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...tings-April-June-2016&p=12691611#post12691611

One of my posts re: Rossmo:


"Interesting, I seemed to have referenced Rossmo and Nigel on November 15, 2015 in our Northern Colorado Shootings thread (link in my signature / "Possible Serial Shooter has Colorado Drivers on Edge").

Here is the content of that post:
(Source Link:
Forum CRIMES Crimes in the News
CO - Possible Serial Shooter Has Colorado Drivers on Edge #3
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...ado-Drivers-on-Edge-3&p=12188584#post12188584 )

"Wow, so I recorded an episode of Forensic Flies because I saw it was about "Geographic Profiling", something I've always been interested in since reading the article about Awareness Space re: Jessica Rideway's case, and mention quite frequently in cases:
http://www.boulderweekly.com/article...-to-clues.html

Well, the episode was about the Southside Rapist, a cop named Randy Comeaux, who was responsible for several rapes in an area of Louisiana over many years. LE saw an article about Geographic Profiling / Environmenal Criminology in Police Chief Magazine, so reached out to the man who developed a software called "Rigel" for this process called which plugs in the coordinates of the crime scenes and returns a probability chart of areas that the perp likely lives or works (this software was successful in identifying the neighborhood where this rapist, RC, lived). So, anyway, I was trying to find this software via google, and guess what just popped up? The developer of this software worked the Beltway Sniper case! What a coincidence and how cool if he could take a look at Noco. Hopefully I won't get sidetracked and see this one through so I get more information about all of this, the software, etc. I think this was back in 2005.

Eta, omg he's talking about "hot zones" in this article. This is the article I am reading right now:*

THE HOUND OF THE DATA POINTS

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING PIONEER KIM ROSSMO HAS BEEN LIKENED TO SHERLOCK HOLMES; HIS WATSON IN THE HUNT FOR SERIAL KILLERS IS A DIGITAL SIDEKICK -- AN ALGORITHM HE CALLS RIGEL.

SCIENCE

http://www.popsci.com/scitech/articl...nd-data-points

"Until he was called in on the Beltway Sniper investigation, Detective Kim Rossmo's most confounding case was the South Side Rapist."

Snip

"Rossmo's job was to help direct the manhunt. If he couldn't find the needle, he hoped at least to radically thin the haystack. And he would do so through the careful application of that most powerful of investigative tools: a mathematics equation.

Rossmo, 47, is the inventor and most zealous proponent of criminal geographic targeting (CGT), more commonly known as geographic profiling. He uses CGT to hunt society's most dangerous game: violent serial criminals -- arsonists, rapists and murderers whose taste for carnage seems only to sharpen with time, and who tend to programmatically continue their offenses until they are caught. There's no mistaking Rossmo for the FBI profilers down in Quantico's Behavioral Assessment Unit, the ones that movies like The Silence of the Lambs have turned into celebrities. He can't tell what kind of offender is terrorizing the town, how old or what race, whether he has delusions of grandeur or issues with Dad -- nor does Rossmo particularly care about those things. His interest is in the most neglected of the Five W's: Where did the offender strike? From this Rossmo can usually calculate where, most likely, he lived."

Snip

"The case intrigued just about everyone who heard about it. The notion of a master geographic profiler conjured those classic film scenes in which detectives gaze at a trail of red pushpins in a big map, then guess where the killer will strike next.

In fact, though, it's just the opposite.

"Geographic profiling isn't about prediction," Rossmo says. "Efforts to predict the location of crimes don't show a lot of focus." Instead of pushing forward into an unknown future, Rossmo's method pulls back to an origin, to the time and place the crimes were hatched. A center.

"You know those sprinklers where the little metal thing hits the water stream and it sprays around in a circle?" Rossmo asks. "You could look at that and say, There's a good probability that the next drop of water will land within this ring,' but it'd be hard to know precisely where. If you took the sprinkler away, though, and I looked at the pattern of water, I could tell you where the sprinkler was."Last edited by margarita25; 11-14-2015 at 10:41 PM.""

 

[margarita25]

(Note to self, summon the member to join us who did some initial formulas for me in NOCO)

Eta: that member is c4rtm4n; sending him/her a note now.

 

[CriminalMinds]

View attachment 104603 View attachment 104604
Serial killer should live in Queens NY central to all the activity

or has reason to spend much time there--feelss more likely to be minutes away from access to meadowbrook pkwy

 

[Neptune]

I did notice there was a coast guard station on Fire Island~~do you think that could have any connection to LISK?

I have not found a connection to Fire Island other than sometime in 2008 Maureen's cell phone accessed her voice mail and pinged a "water/cell tower on Fire Island" -- info I found in Robert Kolker's book Lost Girls. Notes I took in 2011 indicate Maureen used Boost cellular service and I looked up Boost's cell coverage and there was a map showing Fire Island cell coverage and a spot marked near this water tower 40°38'55.62"N 73° 9'15.89"W.

I looked in fishing forums about cell coverage in Great South Bay and apparently boaters can get cell reception off of cell towers on Fire Island, but it is spotty (this was back in 2011). The cell tower near the Coast Guard is at 40°37'29.37"N 73°15'37.02"W (almost literally across from the Oak Beach area 40°38'8.65"N 73°16'27.33"W) -- but it is not a water tower, as researched by Kolker.

My guess is LISK took Maureen's phone on his boat and when he was somewhere in the waters North of Fire Island he accessed her voice mail and it pinged from the water tower.

 

[margarita25]

Hey BigCityAccountant, :wave: , since you love numbers so much, here ya go, maybe you can help us with this one! :biggrin:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossmo's_formula

FORMULA:

Source link: http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...tings-April-June-2016&p=12691633#post12691633

 

[MrsD827]

Does anyone find it a coincidence that all of the bodies have been found by water? If he was/is a hunter he may also be an avid fisherman.

 

[margarita25]

Does anyone find it a coincidence that all of the bodies have been found by water? If he was/is a hunter he may also be an avid fisherman.

Welcome MrsD827

:welcome4:

 

[margarita25]

Anyone think this guy is married? I kind of do...I saw this show on ID, what's is called...oh "Evil Lives Here", I think. I've seen a few episodes where these guys are married and the wives are on the show, talking about their abuse, their mysterious absences late at night etc.

*this post has no scientific reference

*so what percentage of sks are married?

 

[FindHG]

Does anyone find it a coincidence that all of the bodies have been found by water? If he was/is a hunter he may also be an avid fisherman.

:welcome6:​

Yes, very fishy!!! Serial killers and water seem to go together, I've learned here on Websleuths, in more case that one would expect. Great observation, MrsD827, and thank you for joining.

 

[margarita25]

Snipped for space~~BBM

I'm with you thinking he was a boater or my alternate theory is a pilot. He was/is watching the site either through air or water, IMHO.

I did notice there was a coast guard station on Fire Island~~do you think that could have any connection to LISK?

The aspect of a possible aerial view is very interesting...

 

[BigCityAccountant]

Costello & Barthelemy: 0.16 mi = 257.495 m
Barthelemy & Barnes: 0.05 mi = 80.4672 m
Barnes & Waterman: 0.07 mi = 112.654 m
Waterman & John Doe: 0.28 mi = 450.616 m
John Doe & JT: 0.62 mi = 997.793 m
JT & Jane Doe 6: 1.43 mi = 2301.361 m
Jane Doe 6 & Baby Doe: 0.04 mi = 64.3737 m

So, here goes...(just approximating)

The distance between Barthelemy & Barnes was 80 meters. The distance between Jane Doe 6 and Baby Doe is 64. 80-64 = 16 meters.

The distance between Barthelemy & Barnes was 80. The distance between Barnes and Waterman is 112. 112-80 = 32.

16 x 2 = 32 coincidence? Perhaps?

32 x 2 = 64
64+12 = 80

There seems to be a pattern revolving around the number 16.

64/16=4
80/16=5
112/16=7
257/16=16.0625
450/16=28.16
except these two don't have a multiple of 16, unless there is some other multiple.....
997/16 = 62.3125
2301.361 /16 = 143.83

The first 3 are disconcerting..was there anything found at 96? Like possibly another victim? Victim #6, perhaps?? Are there 2 others at 16 and 32 meters??

Bumping off of this...

Do you suppose victim 1,2 and 6 could be IN the water? IE: 16, 32 and 96 from above. Assuming there are more victims. Which I believe there are.

JMHO

 

[BigCityAccountant]

Hey BigCityAccountant, :wave: , since you love numbers so much, here ya go, maybe you can help us with this one! :biggrin:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossmo's_formula

FORMULA:

Source link: http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...tings-April-June-2016&p=12691633#post12691633

.
Too much for my pea brain tonight....LOL

Shadowraiths~~ you don't have this in your app yet???

 

[CriminalMinds]

.
Too much for my pea brain tonight....LOL

Shadowraiths~~ you don't have this in your app yet???

i prefer old school geo-profiling: white board with interlacing circles, connecting dots, and narrowed down to small triangles

 

[shadowraiths]

.
Too much for my pea brain tonight....LOL

Shadowraiths~~ you don't have this in your app yet???

All of the data is there, and I've run the equations. Just haven't got around to adding it to my app... as it contains around 10 or so SK cases, and I need to figure out how to display the results in a "meaningful" way.

 

[shadowraiths]

i prefer old school geo-profiling: white board with interlacing circles, connecting dots, and narrowed down to small triangles

I tend to as well. lolol

 

[CriminalMinds]

I tend to as well. lolol

^5 (high five)