Holly Bobo, missing from TN 2014 discussion #5 ***ARRESTS***

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  • #1,281
I have no clue what we are arguing over. LOL, for real. Who the heck cares about a post 2 weeks ago. I have been posting concerning Holly's case for 3 1/2 years and almost got put in "time out" (more than once) since I was insistent on hashing out the details surrounding the eye witness report (and also delving into what may have been going on in the family, which was a huge no-no...but dang, we had so little to sleuth). I have posted so many contrary things that an interested outsider would swear I have more personalities than Sybil. That's what happens when the wheels of your brain are spinning and your heart cares a lot.

As far as Clint's description of Camo Man goes, he could have been off some. Heaven knows, this has been discussed to death. I have done the very same thing he may have done = glanced at someone and later swore up and down it was so-and-so, when in fact, it was not. The mind is a powerful tool. And also easily fooled.

How many people were in on this before it started? That's the stuff I want to know. And I don't believe for a minute Holly was abducted simply because she was beautiful. Yes, she was beautiful. But this scheme seems to have been well devised and flawlessly (can you say "more or less" and use the word "flawlessly" or is that Sybil-like?) carried out and I don't think raping someone beautiful was the primary motivation. This story is just so big and so complex and has been from the start. I am beginning to wonder if we will ever know the whole truth. I pray we will. But as it stands now, we don't even have the entire cast of characters behind bars yet. What the heck is taking so long?

Great post and it so closely summarizes my feelings, I almost thought I wrote this. LOL

I too am still of the opinion that the motive had to have been more complex than a simple grab a beautiful girl to rape and kill her. It seems there are way too many people involved in this for that to be the sole reason.

One other thing keeps bothering me about this case, and has from the very beginning.
Were these criminals just this clever to be able to get away with it for so long (OR) did they have someone on their side that more or less kept them from serious LE scrutiny in the early days?

LE was at the scene of the crime within minutes of when she was abducted. Right after this happened, most of us felt it would be just a matter of a few days, and the perp would be arrested. As the days wore on, it became more and more baffling and confusing. And then the silence from LE. That silence was deafening.

So I am still very perplexed how a seemingly very solvable case could go unsolved so long. Right now, I can only see 2 possible reasons for this.
1-Just a very unskilled job of people that did not have the proper training to solve a case like this.
2-Someone or some people giving these perp(s) some sort of protection from being looked at seriously
 
  • #1,282
I have always felt the 'No, why?" heard by Clint from Holly was actually two statements. "No' protesting being taken and the "Why?' was said when she did not understand why the kidnapper was doing this to her.

Its like you're in my head ocean!
My thought exactly on this point aswell.
 
  • #1,283
Great post and it so closely summarizes my feelings, I almost thought I wrote this. LOL

I too am still of the opinion that the motive had to have been more complex than a simple grab a beautiful girl to rape and kill her. It seems there are way too many people involved in this for that to be the sole reason.

One other thing keeps bothering me about this case, and has from the very beginning.
Were these criminals just this clever to be able to get away with it for so long (OR) did they have someone on their side that more or less kept them from serious LE scrutiny in the early days?

LE was at the scene of the crime within minutes of when she was abducted. Right after this happened, most of us felt it would be just a matter of a few days, and the perp would be arrested. As the days wore on, it became more and more baffling and confusing. And then the silence from LE. That silence was deafening.

So I am still very perplexed how a seemingly very solvable case could go unsolved so long. Right now, I can only see 2 possible reasons for this.
1-Just a very unskilled job of people that did not have the proper training to solve a case like this.
2-Someone or some people giving these perp(s) some sort of protection from being looked at seriously

Now you are striking with a hot iron, Hatfield. Something high up is amiss. Would bet on it.
 
  • #1,284
Its like you're in my head ocean!
My thought exactly on this point aswell.

I have always thought the abductor said, "Do you know why I am here?"
And Holly responded, "No, why?"
The "Because" would solve so much.
 
  • #1,285
"If the authorities possessed unequivocal DNA evidence, they would have successfully used this evidence to coerce the suspect for a full confession or plea agreement by now."

I don't believe that for even a nano-second. Perry Mason moments, where the suspect says, "Oh wow, you figured it out, okay I confess" are popular on TV dramas that get wrapped up in an hour, but real life plays out very differently.

What's going to motivate LE to offer a plea deal, if their evidence is so rock-solid that they think they can hang him? And why would he confess if nothing to be gained?

Besides, as the OJ Simpson case showed, having DNA evidence isn't a guarantee of a conviction. If these perps are smart (and that seems to be the case), they know that juries have their own mind and prosecutors can bungle any trial.

One more reason to think that the lack of a plea agreement so far means nothing whatsoever - the defendants didn't even get all of the evidence (including good, bad, and exculpatory) in the entirety until a few weeks ago. Why would they ever even consider a plea without first learning what LE has found?

Great post.

You are right. We see defendants plead NG all the time and the evidence brought forth at trial against them was overwhelming. These two already know there will be no pleas accepted.

I think even after all of the discovery is turned over to the defense there will be no plea deal on the table. It seems the DA is very confident with the evidence he has in these cases and on to trial it will go. Even if one or both of the attorneys offered up a plea the DA will tell them to go pound sand.

What is often telling to me in cases is when defendants waive their right to a speedy trial. Constitutionally they have that right to exercise that right and sometimes it can be an advantageous strategy used by the defense because it throws the state off kilter by not allowing them a long period of time to get all their evidence together.

I have seen several cases where LE was still uncovering evidence right up until the trial date. Before a trial as far as LE is concerned it is always a 'work in progress' investigation. On one occasion I even saw the Judge allow new evidence to come in right in the middle of the trial. I cant remember which case it was now and it was some years back. Iirc, it had to do with what one of the defense witnesses testified to and whatever he said caused LE to investigate further. This witness had refused to speak with LE or the DA before trial, which of course was their right to do so. I remember the Judge allowed the state to re-open their CIC to put the newly found evidence in.

Yet both of these defendants didn't demand that their case be expedited in order to show they are innocent. Instead they are comfortable sitting in a jail cell awaiting a trial that will probably not happen until late 2015 or more especially if this turns out to be a death penalty trial.

While full discovery is still probably not in yet since TBI still says this is an ongoing investigation.... that doesn't really matter... because both defendants already know if they left evidence behind linking them to Holly or not.

They have a pretty good idea themselves what was found in the SWs. Word gets around as to what was taken and I am sure ZAs grandfather has filled him in on all the details on what was taken from the home and property when the searches were done. I am sure JA also has visitors who has told him what was taken in his SW as well.

Any truly innocent person would opt for a speedy trial so they could be cleared of the charges in the most expedient manner available.

With them not choosing the speedy trial options makes me believe even they know they are going to be convicted of the crimes charged but would rather postpone the trial date as much as possible. Being detained in a jail is far different than being housed in a maximum security prison or on death row where DR inmates are locked in their cell 23 out of 24. By staying in jail as long as possible they are living a less restrictive/structured life.

That is also why I believe Pearcey would rather postpone his case than go to trial in a short period of time. I feel that is why Pearcey refused to turnover his phone code so that his phone could be checked. If an innocent person knew they held the 'key' to their freedom and innocence, code key in this instance, they would give the police what is needed so the matter could be cleared up and their lives returned to them. But in Pearcey's case he would rather use the stall tactic of not turning over the code to unlock what he says is not there.:D

It is like when a homeowner stands in front of his safe trying to shield it from the home invaders then trying to convince them there isn't anything in the safe when the invaders know perfectly well they are lying.:)

So imo, there will be no plea deals offered or accepted by the DA for ZA and JA.

This DA was going to take them to trial even before Holly's remains were found. That speaks volumes as to the amount of evidence the TBI and the DA truly have. Neither one has any bargaining power although I believe being the sociopaths they both are they would never give up information anyway.

This DA isn't going to deal. Not with the top two anyway. He is going to try his very best to send both of these vile sickening people to at least LWOP and the DP if they opt for that choice.

To me it is quite telling that both ZA and JA would rather remain in jail for years giving up their freedom... instead of quickly having a trial held so they could clear their name. The devil is in the details.

IMO
 
  • #1,286
Great post and it so closely summarizes my feelings, I almost thought I wrote this. LOL

I too am still of the opinion that the motive had to have been more complex than a simple grab a beautiful girl to rape and kill her. It seems there are way too many people involved in this for that to be the sole reason.


Respectfully snipped and BBM:

:goodpost: Exactly ... and very well stated, Hatfield !

Yes, way too many people involved -- and -- maybe ? more perps will be charged, according to TBI . . .

:moo:
 
  • #1,287
Oceanblueyes's above mention of the search warrants of the Adams property has brought a question to my mind that may have already been answered somewhere. If so, I apologize. Who is the actual owner of the Adams property that was searched? I'm thinking it was the grandfather. If so, wouldn't the warrants have to have been served on him? Also, wouldn't he be the one given the list of items removed from the property as evidence?
 
  • #1,288
Oceanblueyes's above mention of the search warrants of the Adams property has brought a question to my mind that may have already been answered somewhere. If so, I apologize. Who is the actual owner of the Adams property that was searched? I'm thinking it was the grandfather. If so, wouldn't the warrants have to have been served on him? Also, wouldn't he be the one given the list of items removed from the property as evidence?

ZA inherited the property from his deceased father.

http://heavy.com/news/2014/03/holly-bobo-disappearance-suspect-zachary-adams/

Zach Adams: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know

According to Fox 17, Adams inherited the house on Adams Lane in Holladay from his father when he passed away.
<sniped - read more>
 
  • #1,289
Originally Posted by Hatfield View Post
Great post and it so closely summarizes my feelings, I almost thought I wrote this. LOL

I too am still of the opinion that the motive had to have been more complex than a simple grab a beautiful girl to rape and kill her. It seems there are way too many people involved in this for that to be the sole reason.

Hatfield, birds of a feather flock together.. Imo, the motives; sexual/drug/meth induced, and behavioral profile of the abductor was posted within the first few weeks after HB's abduction. I agree that no one could have predicted the number of perps involved. HB's case is an anomaly due to the high number of suspects and POIs involved..
 
  • #1,290
How do we know the items were 'planted?'

I really see this no different than other cases where items of the victim were found later on elsewhere scattered about but not at the abduction scene.

In Sierra Lamar's case for one example, among many, there was nothing of Sierra's left close to the abduction site. However; a mile away her cell phone was found and even further away her backpack and clothing was found stuffed inside. Were these items planted? Not in my opinion. They were simply discarded by the perpetrator at some point and time because he did not want to be caught with them in his possesssion.

Just because none of Holly's personal possessions were left behind at her home doesn't mean there she had familiarity with her abductor.

He may have simply made sure she dropped none of her items because if seen it would immediately draw attention that something unexpected had happened to Holly. Since the perp did not know Clint was home that day I have always felt the kidnapper wanted others to assume that Holly had ridden to school with someone else that morning.

I am sure he wanted to get her away from her home without her kicking and screaming which would draw attention that a kidnapping was taking place.

I just don't see any evidence that shows Holly knew her kidnapper.

I have always felt the 'No, why?" heard by Clint from Holly was actually two statements. "No' protesting being taken and the "Why?' was said when she did not understand why the kidnapper was doing this to her.

I don't think Holly had any familiarity with any of the involved perps. She lived a very different life than any of them. She may have known them by sight since they were notoriously known in the community for their criminal activities but she would have never gone anywhere willingly with any of them. That is why the kidnapper had to draw blood. He was having to force Holly to go with him.

IMO

My opinions only, no facts here:

A good post.

I don't disagree. The items may have not been planted. But equally, the items may have been planted. Either theory is practically un-testable, but I have developed hypotheses, regardless. What do any of us really know about the facts of the investigation? Almost everything we say is a hypothesis at some level. Of the two sites (not counting the remains site), the cell phone has the best chance of being placed days later. As you will see in my upcoming post, I believe that the luch sack was tossed the day of the kidnapping. I will explain my reasoning there as to why its location does not seem entirely random.

Where you say "In Sierra Lamar's case for one example, among many, there was nothing of Sierra's left close to the abduction site. However; a mile away her cell phone was found and even further away her backpack and clothing was found stuffed inside. Were these items planted? Not in my opinion. They were simply discarded by the perpetrator at some point and time because he did not want to be caught with them in his possesssion." You are exactly right. Which begs the question, why would the kidnapper be worried about having a simple lunch sack IF Holly is still in the vehicle with him? She is far more incriminating and problematic than than the lunch sack. Why even roll down the window and/or pull over to toss the lunch sack? Could it be that Holly was no longer in the vehicle when the lunch sack was tossed?

The purported "no, why?" statement could be a response to the question "will you go with me now?"

Your last paragraph in your post, helps me in bringing up a couple of points. You say "I don't think Holly had any familiarity with any of the involved perps." I agree, and that is why am I proposing Holly had interpersonal familiarity with her kidnapper- because neither of the arrested main suspects are the actual kidnapper. On another minor matter, while writing my timeline I read many accounts of the blood at the kidnap scene. It sounds like a very small amount was present. In advanced First Aid classes, one of the interesting tests that the teachers present is this: they pour a measured amount of fake blood on the floor (I mean so much that it looks like the Texas chainsaw massacre). Then they ask you "did the victim survive". Well almost all students claim confidently that the victim could not have survived. Then you find out that the amount of blood on the floor is only 1/5 of the amount that you can safely lose. I believe that the amount of blood at the kidnap scene was so minor, that it could have been a few drops from being bumped on the nose, maybe during a scuffle. If Holly was clobbered or cut majorly with a knife, the amount of blood at the scene would have probably appeared shockingly great.

Sleuth On!
 
  • #1,291
ZA inherited the property from his deceased father.

http://heavy.com/news/2014/03/holly-bobo-disappearance-suspect-zachary-adams/

Zach Adams: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know

According to Fox 17, Adams inherited the house on Adams Lane in Holladay from his father when he passed away.
<sniped - read more>

My opinions only, no facts here:

I like heavy.com and have used it for some time. It is especially useful in the first day or two after a crime/arrest, when almost nothing is reported yet. They must have good sources.
 
  • #1,292
I suspect she was probably punched/hit in the nose during a scuffle. Her brother didn't say anything about her limping or guarding any area. She may have been cut minorly with a knife, but I suspect it was a nosebleed.
 
  • #1,293
My opinions only, no facts here:

I will post PART III of my ongoing series soon. Just so this future post does not hit anybody here "out of the blue" I want to give a partial Preface and hear your responses.

There are several conundrums in the Holly Bobo case (as described in my timeline). I am still somewhat baffled that the kidnapper did not simply remove and hide Holly's "lunch bag", purse, cell phone, etc. at the crime scene (under her car or in the directly adjacent woods). In past posts I have opined that the kidnapper allowed Holly to take these items with her so that he could plant them later. I am beginning to wonder if that was not the initial motive (even if the kidnapper did decide later-on to plant evidence, which I think he did).

Remember the story is that the kidnapper spent 10 to 15 minutes with Holly before taking her away. The timing of the scream heard by the neighbor and Holly's brother's own testimony have necessitated this time span. When a kidnapper spends ten to fifteen minutes arguing and/or pleading with the victim before abducting them, something is revealed- this is not your typical snatch-and-grab abduction, where the kidnapper and the victim do not know each other. Also, 10 to 15 minutes represents enough time for the kidnapper to decide what he intends to do and how to do it. In 10 to 15 minutes, even the Three Stooges would decide to remove and conceal any extraneous evidence at or near the crime scene, so this evidence could not be traced to their ultimate destination.

Cutting to the quick, what if the kidnapper allowed Holly to take her loose personal items with her because he wanted to "perpetuate in his own troubled mind" that the abduction was not a forceful action? In this manner, the kidnapper preserves Holly as someone still dressed up to go to school with all of her daily accoutrements, in the false hope that everything will be normal once he spends a little more time with her. The kidnapper believes that once Holly realizes "how great" he still is, she still has all of her normal daily belongings with her and complete normalcy is preserved.

In my reformed opinion, the kidnapper knew Holly better than a stranger and better than a distant relative living across town. Some former association of greater importance is implied by my hypothesis.

OK, let us duke it out here about this subject! But I must warn you that I am a former boxer. I had a legendary left hook. Well, at my age the left hook has become so slow and weak that it might be defeated by a butterfly. But as Richard Nixon would say- "I am NOT a punch-drunk ex-boxer" (or a crook!).

Sleuth On!

^ This sums up my thoughts on the case. I'm not convinced they have arrested the right folks. They way they're choosing to release evidence is suspicious to me and I have serious doubts that the mentally handicapped Dylan could've kept this quiet for so long, not to mention all the other folks involved. But if they do have the right people, it definitely wasn't a sexual motive. Groups of people don't snatch women for sexual purposes. Also, a stranger isn't going to sit there and have a 15 minute conversation with her. That's weird. Now, as to whether she had a personal relationship with her...maybe. Or maybe it was like this:

Kidnapper: "Where the bleep is Drew/Clint/your ex/your cousin, etc"

Holly: "I don't know! Why?" (Or do you know where X is? and she answers "No, why?")

Kidnapper: "That bleeping bleep owes us money! You're going to take us to him!"

Then they hold her captive for a few days. Whoever the other person is doesn't pay up, so they kill her.

This was not a random abduction, and it was not a sexual motive.
 
  • #1,294
I have always thought the abductor said, "Do you know why I am here?"
And Holly responded, "No, why?"
The "Because" would solve so much.

IMO the abductor asked "Is X here?"

Knowing who X is would answer a lot of unanswered questions.
 
  • #1,295
The other thing to keep in mind is that she would have been aware that her brother was in the house, so all she needed to do is run around screaming and the cavalry would arrive.

But she apparently did not do any of that, so either she knew the attacker and believed he would not injure her or she was deliberately trying to lead him away from the house.
 
  • #1,296
The other thing to keep in mind is that she would have been aware that her brother was in the house, so all she needed to do is run around screaming and the cavalry would arrive.

But she apparently did not do any of that, so either she knew the attacker and believed he would not injure her or she was deliberately trying to lead him away from the house.

I am using your post as a springboard. Perhaps Holly's strategy was one of delay,delay,delay. Holly knew by having a dialog with her assailant it would accomplish two important things. 1)it kept her close to home a little longer 2)raised the probability of an intervention & rescue. MOO
 
  • #1,297
This is not meant to be critical of anyone's observations or conjectures, nor to discourage them. But this is what I see on things like motive, camo man ID, the "No why" words, etc.

I enjoy all the various scenarios and ideas regarding the abduction day happenings, motives, camo man ID, and so on, but ultimately I don't see anything gained by working from that angle, because we don't have (known to us) evidence learned from there (or later) that limits those possibilities and eliminates wrong ones.

And identifying the perps BARD is about limiting or eliminating other possibilities.

For example, we can come up with almost any motive. If we pick one, we do so because we picked it, and not because the others have been eliminated (except by our own choice of assumptions).

Or we can take the "No, why" answer and make it indicate anything we want, simply by changing the question to one that fits our assumptions.

We can take the description of camo man, and the way it was derived, and make it into about anyone male of general height and weight, and the presence of exterior camo wear broadens those possibilities even more.

The fact that HB items were found in various places, we can take it to mean that either HB was taken that path, or that she wasn't. Same with the cell phone. We learn little that's solid, and any thoughts may turn out to be completely backwards.

As to whether LE has more evidence of that abduction site, motive, camo man ID and so on, based on anything to be gleaned from that initial act, I would suspect not. I believe the case has to be solved based on things found at the ZA property, at the remains site, and from witnesses, and unfortunately we are unlikely to know any of that until we get to trial.

In the meantime, LE may (and hopefully does) know a lot about those other places, with which they will be able to narrow the possibilities, but all we know in total is that
1 HB was taken, and a few of the details of that event
2 Later some of her stuff was found here and there
3 Dylan (whose testimony may or may not be reliable, based on his diminished mental capacity) has said HB was in the custody of ZA/JA after she was taken
4 LE claims there was a video to corroborate that, but LE has never seen it, and its existence rests on the word of one person against that of others
5 The remains of HB were found about 10 miles from where she was taken, near the interstate. We don't know when they were put there. A bucket was also there.
6 A search of ZA property was conducted. No idea if a single thing of value to the case was actually found.

I argue back about various of the theories from time to time, but my belief is not that those theories are wrong necessarily, but only that any statement that this or that "MUST" be true is going too far, since we don't have anything but our own personal assumptions to use to narrow down motive, process, events, and so on by what we know. Hopefully LE knows a lot, but unfortunately we won't until there's a trial and we see what has been found.
 
  • #1,298
This is not meant to be critical of anyone's observations or conjectures, nor to discourage them. But this is what I see on things like motive, camo man ID, the "No why" words, etc.

I enjoy all the various scenarios and ideas regarding the abduction day happenings, motives, camo man ID, and so on, but ultimately I don't see anything gained by working from that angle, because we don't have (known to us) evidence learned from there (or later) that limits those possibilities and eliminates wrong ones.

And identifying the perps BARD is about limiting or eliminating other possibilities.

I see what you are saying SteveS. I both agree and disagree. And forgive me if ive understood your post wrong and this in fact makes no sense.

I think looking at the angles of the "no why” and the camo man are in fact relevant. Because by determining exactly in what context this statement was made and what the motives of camo man were, we eliminate or confirm exactly WHO camo man is.
If there is very little or no actual incriminating evidence against JA, ZA or the brothers and it is found that in fact someone else was the abducter, it creates reasonable doubt in regards to the current accused.

There is so much we dont know of what LE knows and what evidence they have but i dont ever think mulling over any detail, big or small, is ever unneeded.

So throwing around ideas and speculation on even the minute details is helpful in my opinion. It gives you the information needed to eliminate possibilities.

It only takes one person to think of something or a situation that noone else has.
 
  • #1,299
I see what you are saying SteveS. I both agree and disagree. And forgive me if ive understood your post wrong and this in fact makes no sense.

I think looking at the angles of the "no why&#8221; and the camo man are in fact relevant. Because by determining exactly in what context this statement was made and what the motives of camo man were, we eliminate or confirm exactly WHO camo man is.

If there is very little or no actual incriminating evidence against JA, ZA or the brothers and it is found that in fact someone else was the abducter, it creates reasonable doubt in regards to the current accused.

There is so much we dont know of what LE knows and what evidence they have but i dont ever think mulling over any detail, big or small, is ever unneeded.

So throwing around ideas and speculation on even the minute details is helpful in my opinion. It gives you the information needed to eliminate possibilities.

It only takes one person to think of something or a situation that noone else has.

FS, let me make clear that I was talking about what WE know ...which is certainly not the same as what LE knows. (Or, at least, hopefully there is a massive difference.)

And in this context, I was focusing on the evidence of the initial act, where we like to talk about, but where we know little - - and where I think LE doesn't know much (if any) more than we do.

On that stuff, we like to talk, because we have some snippets. And I agree that throwing around the possibilities is interesting. But, as long as we don't have any concrete evidence to eliminate other of the possibilities (and we don't, because there isn't any to have), then each of our possibilities only adds to an ever-growing stack of stories to explain what may have happened - - of which, none may eventually turn out to be the right one.

They are fun and interesting to discuss, of course. But they don't lead us to a solution, because each has to work from completely invented ideas and there's nothing to eliminate any other story.

All of the snippets that we have are broad and malleable.

For example, let me give feedback on the statements you made specifically as to some particular pieces of "evidence."

You said: "I think looking at the angles of the "no why&#8221; and the camo man are in fact relevant. Because by determining exactly in what context this statement was made and what the motives of camo man were, we eliminate or confirm exactly WHO camo man is."

So let's start with the "No, why" statement and work to "(determine) exactly in what context this statement was made." How would we determine context? By looking at the words that were said to create that response. Well, then what words were said? Umm, we have no idea. So we don't actually know context, nor can we know or determine it, and while we can make up various (thousands) of possibilities, each of those could be right and there's no way to disprove any of the others.

Would it he helpful to know what that question was, that was asked? Sure. But there's no way we can possibly say that this proposed question was definitely right, or that that one was wrong. We either know it, or we don't (and we don't). I'll be glad to play "what if the question was _____ " games with you, if you wish, and it will become quickly apparent that we can come up with plenty of great ones that could very easily have been the "context" and that take us in all kinds of differing directions.

The same applies to the identification of camo man. Would it help if we knew for sure who it was? Of course. Can we know? Based on what evidence we have, no. Our problem is that we have a witness, but the witness assumed it was someone that it wasn't, so made no real effort to see more, and we have no way to definitively identify him after the fact because the evidence about camo man comes through what CB saw (and didn't see).

You mentioned the motives of camo man. How would we ascertain what those must have been? We can't. We can merely invent our own idea, based on our own assumptions, which are no better or worse than any other idea based on very different assumptions. We have nothing concrete to eliminate alternative possibilities.

As a result, if we focus on these items of evidence that we have no way to define, it can't really take us anywhere in the case. We simply end up with a massive pile of possibilities, some of which we might mention and most of which we don't, but all being very possible because these particular pieces of evidence have such broad possibilities.
 
  • #1,300
FS, let me make clear that I was talking about what WE know ...which is certainly not the same as what LE knows. (Or, at least, hopefully there is a massive difference.)

And in this context, I was focusing on the evidence of the initial act, where we like to talk about, but where we know little - - and where I think LE doesn't know much (if any) more than we do.

On that stuff, we like to talk, because we have some snippets. And I agree that throwing around the possibilities is interesting. But, as long as we don't have any concrete evidence to eliminate other of the possibilities (and we don't, because there isn't any to have), then each of our possibilities only adds to an ever-growing stack of stories to explain what may have happened - - of which, none may eventually turn out to be the right one.

They are fun and interesting to discuss, of course. But they don't lead us to a solution, because each has to work from completely invented ideas and there's nothing to eliminate any other story.

All of the snippets that we have are broad and malleable.

For example, let me give feedback on the statements you made specifically as to some particular pieces of "evidence."

You said: "I think looking at the angles of the "no why” and the camo man are in fact relevant. Because by determining exactly in what context this statement was made and what the motives of camo man were, we eliminate or confirm exactly WHO camo man is."

So let's start with the "No, why" statement and work to "(determine) exactly in what context this statement was made." How would we determine context? By looking at the words that were said to create that response. Well, then what words were said? Umm, we have no idea. So we don't actually know context, nor can we know or determine it, and while we can make up various (thousands) of possibilities, each of those could be right and there's no way to disprove any of the others.

Would it he helpful to know what that question was, that was asked? Sure. But there's no way we can possibly say that this proposed question was definitely right, or that that one was wrong. We either know it, or we don't (and we don't). I'll be glad to play "what if the question was _____ " games with you, if you wish, and it will become quickly apparent that we can come up with plenty of great ones that could very easily have been the "context" and that take us in all kinds of differing directions.

The same applies to the identification of camo man. Would it help if we knew for sure who it was? Of course. Can we know? Based on what evidence we have, no. Our problem is that we have a witness, but the witness assumed it was someone that it wasn't, so made no real effort to see more, and we have no way to definitively identify him after the fact because the evidence about camo man comes through what CB saw (and didn't see).

You mentioned the motives of camo man. How would we ascertain what those must have been? We can't. We can merely invent our own idea, based on our own assumptions, which are no better or worse than any other idea based on very different assumptions. We have nothing concrete to eliminate alternative possibilities.

As a result, if we focus on these items of evidence that we have no way to define, it can't really take us anywhere in the case. We simply end up with a massive pile of possibilities, some of which we might mention and most of which we don't, but all being very possible because these particular pieces of evidence have such broad possibilities.
I respect what your saying and i agree, without the information we need we can basically only throw stories around but I really feel like it was a long winded way to say we are all wasting our time. JMO
But like i said, it only takes one person to come up with something different, a different angle and theory. That could change the entire direction of a case that noone thought possible and actually end up being a case cracker.
 
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