IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #13

[ShyViolet]

I am referring to the non working cell phone that was in Lyric's purse. The one she played games on. I know the working phone was at home, but I am theorizing that the abductor did not necessarily know that the phone in the purse was non functioning. If the phone was used for games (such as angry birds) it would still be kept charged, it would just not have a minutes or a cell plan still associated with it.

I thought the non working cell phone and purse belonged to Elizabeth, while Lyric left her cell phone at grandma's?

 

[otto]

I just don't see the family and their problems being directly/indirectly involved in the disappearance. It seems to me if that were so, the full power of the FBI and state/local LE could blow that wide open, especially if the family has been cooperative about that. Seems to me they'd have an immediate set of POI and possible suspects to focus like a laser in on.

The purse really hangs me up. If it wasn't for the purse, some of my more simple scenarios would work well. For instance, if the purse wasn't there on the lakeside of the fence, it would be easy to say the girls knew the perp and were lured away. The perp could easily say, "come check this out. Leave the bikes, they'll be fine." But why would they leave the purse behind if everything was okay? And if the perp knew the girls and has their trust, why discard the purse where it was found. That would imply the abduction was taking place on the trail, which would be unnecessary if he was luring them away.

The bikes on the path and the purse on the lakeside of the fence, I can see only two ways for that to happen: either the girls were taken on the spot (which I still don't like) or the bikes and purse were staged (which I think makes sense, but it carries the same risks as snatching the girls on the trail and it doesn't fit the timeline well).

I feel bad for thinking harshly of LE before about wasting time searching the lake. Something is very wrong with this case. Nothing matches up at all.

The purse is interesting and could be the clue that leads police to believe that the scene could have been staged. Given that the bikes were on the trail side of the fence, next to a gate, and the purse was set down on the lakeside of the fence, it kind of looks like the girls simply parked their bikes, went through the gate, set down their purse and vanished into the water. The problem is that there were no shoes and no one would swim in a leech infested lake. It's like we have a suggestion (bikes, purse) that the girls went into the water, but the suggestion is incomplete.

The purse is set down near some rocks on a narrow shore with some debris (cardboard or board, logs, new plant growth) that is approximately 100 feet away from a forested area, but it does seem completely out of place. In my estimation, it would take about 1 minute to walk that distance and be out of sight in the trees.

I'm doubtful that the girls rode their bikes down the trail from the east side to the gate. Too many people have said that it is very creepy. I don't believe that someone walked between the double fenced area with two bikes and a purse. I do believe that Maiden Lane was where a vehicle was parked to take the girls away from the area. Is it possible that nothing matches up because one clue is wrong ... like ... staging rather than crime scene, cyclist tip, timeline, route ...

 

[Copper]

Thinking about whether the bikes were staged at the lake, makes me wonder, what would the police have focused on initially, if the bikes had disappeared along with the girls?

If the bikes were gone, I think it would be:

Runaway - quicky discounted

Family did it - less quickly discounted, but soon enough

Stranger abduction - without the bikes and the purse next to the lake, I think LE would have had to arrive at stranger abduction fairly quickly. It is hard to say this would have yielded any more results than we have now. I think while LE was focused on the lake, everyone else naturally assumed it was an abduction and sent in tips based on that mindset. And while LE was focused on the lake, I assume they collected all possible evidence anyway, not likely missing a crucial piece of evidence.

 

[TGIRecovered]

Do people fish down in that area?

The creepy camper does...he posted an online ad asking if anyone wanted to meet him there and do "it" while he fished. (Yeah, that's as gross as your pig farm!) :what:

 

[threecrazykids]

That is what I am wondering. google makes the bike trail appear to be particularly close to the water on that section of the trail. I wonder just how close. Was the perp attempting to toss the purse into the water? Were the bikes found there because of the proximity to the water along that stretch?

That darn purse. :shakehead:

Logically (in my mind) the space between the purse and the bikes isn't surprising if the girls were actually playing. I would assume when the girls got off the bikes she took the purse with her.

Not that the abductor didn't throw the purse, but like you said...if you're gonna toss it...hit the water.

FWIW - if the scene was "staged" the purse in the water would make MUCH more sense than on the edge of the water. Purse IN the water would likely draw them to search the lake.

 

[CHERIE.T]

:wagon:


Hello Jewel53!

I'm not the fastest typist either, so don't worry, you are in good company! I noticed that your first post was stuck at the bottom of a page. It's easy for us to miss one when the threads are running as fast as this one has been!

Count me among those who aren't putting much stock in to the placement of the bikes. Variables like the bike placement and whether they went through the gate or over the fence or around the fence are not that interesting to me. In my opinion, it has been talked to death but the rehashing of the lake scene never ends! Not your faukt, of course...you have only posted once!

I think that we are more likely to find the perp by looking at those who had motive and opportunity, and those who are involved in serious illegal activity.

* My best bet right now is the camper creeper who posted ads online, desperately seeking sexual encounters at the lake, and he is a RSO. Maybe he has pervert friends who helped, or maybe I'm just wrong about him, we'll see.

* I don't trust boyfriends of parents and grandparents as a general rule, and if family is involved in any way, I'm thinking it's someone who befriended or did "business" with the adults to get to the girls for sex and for money.

* My final suspect would be someone unknown to the family who lives near the lake and has observed the girls on other occasions. This type of person would have a loosely planned scenario in mind and simply execute that plan when the best opportunity presented itself.

It would be great if the girls are alive, but I fear they were used for whatever purpose and killed soon after. :moo:

Right now, as of today,I say no to the camper creeper because if he was the perp, IMHO LE would have him in jail.

Im agreeing with your final suspect because of 2 things.
Most kids are abducted by someone they know and
after reading the first thread again, there are things that
make me very hinkey.

 

[Jules71]

The creepy camper does...he posted an online ad asking if anyone wanted to meet him there and do "it" while he fished. (Yeah, that's as gross as your pig farm!) :what:

I don't believe he specifically mentioned Meyers Lake in his CL ads.

Also, just so everyone knows - it was misstated earlier that the camper creeper/CL ad guy is a RSO. He is not a RSO.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

 

[MNDad]

I have a thought that I can't share because it is based on nothing, but does anyone know who DM's bail bondsman was? Or how to find out?

 

[otto]

I was wondering, if you're going to get rid of the purse, why not just throw it in the lake? The purse was found ten feet east of the bikes and two feet north of the fence. Assuming the bikes were found close to the gate (is anyone sure where the bikes were found?), it would seem logical that the gate and the jetty is where the perp would be disposing the purse from, which would be the best spot to throw the purse into the water.

Right ... so the purse being on the shore rather than in the water, or taken away altogether, suggests that someone wanted the purse to be found next to the water ... which suggests staging. Someone may have thought that the phone could be pinged to indicate location ... so leaving the phone at that location could have been done to deliberately cause police find the phone there and to assume the children had drowned.

 

[nikb]

*********
BBM

Snipped from the article: Marcella Carpenter was out delivering newspapers with her granddaughter when deputies visited the house.

*********

I didn't get the impression Mrs Carpenter saw the girls that day, but they didn't say where she was at that time. She was delivering papers when the deputies came by. At least, that's the way I read it.

Oops I completely mis-read that. I think you're right, and thanks for the correction.

 

[otto]

Im positive that one of the family members said that Elizabeth left that cell phone at home.

Lyric left her phone at home, Elizabeth was carrying her phone in her purse. The phone could be used to call 911 but was otherwise only used for gaming.

 

[LittleMissContrary]

The purse is interesting and could be the clue that leads police to believe that the scene could have been staged. Given that the bikes were on the trail side of the fence, next to a gate, and the purse was set down on the lakeside of the fence, it kind of looks like the girls simply parked their bikes, went through the gate, set down their purse and vanished into the water. The problem is that there were no shoes and no one would swim in a leech infested lake. It's like we have a suggestion (bikes, purse) that the girls went into the water, but the suggestion is incomplete.

The purse is set down near some rocks on a narrow shore with some debris (cardboard or board, logs, new plant growth) that is approximately 100 feet away from a forested area, but it does seem completely out of place. In my estimation, it would take about 1 minute to walk that distance and be out of sight in the trees.

I'm doubtful that the girls rode their bikes down the trail from the east side to the gate. Too many people have said that it is very creepy. I don't believe that someone walked between the double fenced area with two bikes and a purse. I do believe that Maiden Lane was where a vehicle was parked to take the girls away from the area. Is it possible that nothing matches up because one clue is wrong ... like ... staging rather than crime scene, cyclist tip, timeline, route ...

This description just caused me to think of things a little differently. What if the purse and the bikes were not discarded in any order related to the perp staging, but rather as part of the abduction sequence.

Possible scenario: Girls ride bikes to the lake, and set the bikes down somewhere within visual range. Then as they are goofing off by the lake, throwing stones or gathering stones or flowers, etc. Lyric sets her purse down. Someone approaches them using some kind of a lure or story, and they begin to go back to their bikes. They are taken by force before they can escape on their bikes, leaving them in the path where the struggle occurred.


Two abduction methods I have read about recently (these are from verified incidents):
1. Man approaches boy in park with empty leash claiming he needs help to find his dog. (Interestingly enough, the mother of the little boy was watching him from their house across the street and as she started towards him, a white suv pulled up, the man hopped in the vehicle
and they sped off.
2. Man approaches two children and tells them that their mother has been injured and tries to get them in the vehicle. When they refuse, he attempts to force them into the vehicle.

There seems to be quite a bit of variety when it comes to the strategy. Usually when the trickery or lure bit does not work, they resort to force.

 

[CHERIE.T]

If these were my kids i would be knocking on those door in that neighborhood and questioning everyone who gets near that area over and over until I got somekind of information. People see things without realizing it. They need to be made to search their deepest memories. I think this perp was a regular in that area.

bbm
:seeya: Me too BB.
Id also like to know if the parents, other loved ones, strangers , if anyone
is holding vigils for the girls?

What about another ground search>
If they were my kids, Id not sit and do nothing...no way.
:moo:

 

[Copper]

The girls have been visiting Meyer's Lake for awhile. And not just the lake. Mr. C has seen them around often enough to know one of the girls. Which makes me think the girls have had some contact with the perp. Maybe the perp doesn't live in the area. Maybe he has been meeting the girls on Maiden Lane before hand.

On Friday, the girls have some time, from after 12:00 to 1:30 (I think, right?). Whether they go on their own or on the perp's urging, doesn't matter. They bike down to the lake. I would say the perp decided to meet the girls at the creepy spot on the trail or leads them there. Again, doesn't matter which. But the perp wants them there, because he wants the bikes there.

So, at the lake, the perp and the girls hang out, whatever. They are out of site whenever TG comes by. Eventually the perp lures the girls over to Maiden Lane, which the girls could already be familiar with, leaving the bikes behind on the trail. Back in the woods out of sight, the abduction actually happens.

Now, here is what's different from past theories.

Since the perp has lured the girls to the creepy part of the trail and and then lured them away from their bikes, he doesn't have to stage the bikes. The girls have already done that for him. But, the perp does stage the purse. He can do this relatively easily and safely by following the shore from Maiden Lane to where the purse was found. I don't think throwing the purse into the water would be any more helpful than just leaving it on shore. If the girls were playing around the water, they'd set it down and then play.

 

[otto]

Logically (in my mind) the space between the purse and the bikes isn't surprising if the girls were actually playing. I would assume when the girls got off the bikes she took the purse with her.

Not that the abductor didn't throw the purse, but like you said...if you're gonna toss it...hit the water.

FWIW - if the scene was "staged" the purse in the water would make MUCH more sense than on the edge of the water. Purse IN the water would likely draw them to search the lake.

If the purse had been in the water, I think people would have assumed that it was thrown over the fence, which would clearly indicate that someone other than Elizabeth put it there. As it stands, it gives the impression that Elizabeth set down her purse and the two girls vanished next to a drainage pipe at the lake.

 

[CHERIE.T]

Concerning strange vans following posters- could be undercover LE,or media looking for a story.
Having people focus on white vans might not be such a bad thing,especially if the perp drives something else. They will keep on regular route and not avoid "check points" thinking he/she/they are safe from scrutiny.In other words, wave that shiny white scarf to distract as the rabbit hops into the hat.

If someone here thinks someone is following them, they need to
call LE not tell it here. :waitasec: :moo:

 

[Anna1964]

I have a thought that I can't share because it is based on nothing, but does anyone know who DM's bail bondsman was? Or how to find out?

Last week I was searching for the bail bondsman in another case in a different state, and I located them in some sort of court records. Not much help, I know. Haven't checked Iowa yet.

 

[Jules71]

Right ... so the purse being on the shore rather than in the water, or taken away altogether, suggests that someone wanted the purse to be found next to the water ... which suggests staging. Someone may have thought that the phone could be pinged to indicate location ... so leaving the phone at that location could have been done to deliberately cause police find the phone there and to assume the children had drowned.

Yes! Now I have wondered if a cell phone that is powered on but not linked to an active plan pings to the nearest tower. I think it does because you can still use it to call 911 and usually you can still call customer service from the previous cell phone provider. Does anyone know for sure? I have wondered if the gps works to locate a phone like this. My son used to take an old cell phone with him for emergency purposes before he had his own.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

 

[CHERIE.T]

There would be fresh fingerprints on the bikes if they had been touched, wouldn't there?

Supposedly LE took the bikes for fingerprinting and DNA test. :moo:

 

[SapphireSteel]

I can't contribute much at the moment either, my guesses are strictly against :tos: <modsnip>.

I still believe this one will be wrapped quickly...just because there's no arrest, doesn't mean LE have "no idea" which I've seen posted on here too many times.

:banghead:

You may want to check out the case of Daniel Morcombe down here in Australia...similar sudden disappearance...it took 8 years for an arrest even though LE had a very good suspect (unnamed, unmentioned even) for most of that time.

The trouble is not LE, it is often the DA's office, which is political, elected, in charge of the public pursestrings, and quite capable of refusing to prosecute without what they view as "rock solid" evidence.

There is a world of difference between "rock solid" and "no idea".

Keep the faith. They didn't just come out and say "we strongly believe they are alive" (paraphrased) based on NOTHING...they actually said they had "physical evidence". We still don't know what that is.

I hope they still believe this and the silence is just part of the rescue mission.

I would kill to be a fly on the wall but I have complete faith in LE in this one.

:moo: