IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #13

[JaimeInLA]

I think it's very possible that someone they had seen before had seen them riding their bikes on previous occasions, saw them that day and invited them up to see their puppies, kittens, aquarium, ect.. and had them bring their bikes INTO their garage. He/she brings the girls inside their house, closes the door, and then assaults them.

He/she knows they have to get rid of their bikes, closes their garage door, loads them into a vehicle and thinks where can I get rid of these- where's the best place to throw off an investigation? The lake.

We know the stats are unfavorable for children missing more than 3 hours. The girls weren't reported missing for 2 hours (which is the average time) and the search didn't find their bikes until about 3 1/2 hours after they were last seen. We know the biker may have seen the bikes around 12:30 and the girls were last seen on video about 20 minutes earlier. That is such a tight window for the abduction whether the bikes were staged or not.

These girls could have already been abducted, assaulted and removed from the area BEFORE they were even reported missing. No one would notice a pick up with a large tote in the back.

Again, MOO and just one theory.

Thanks for checking it out and reporting back! I have one correction to the above. TG did not see the bikes at 12:30. He called his daughter at 12:27. Prior to that call, he rode to a gas station and used the bathroom after seeing the bikes. He estimates the time he saw the bikes as 12:20. If the girls were seen on camera at 12:11, that leaves NINE minutes for them to ride 1.5 miles, get abducted, subdued or restrained, and the bikes to be walked 400 feet down that trail and staged... Not enough time!

I think the only thing that works with the timeline is the girls leaving their own bikes at the gate (where the dogs picked up their scent and followed it to the water's edge) and boarding a non motorized boat at the jetty. Then TG rides by, just as the boat starts heading east.

If the girls left their bikes at the gate, then walked back down the trail and around the end of the fence, TG would have seen them.

If the girls were led down the lake side of the fence to Maiden Lane, TG would have seen them.

The only thing that works for me (considering the timeline) is a boat ride, with a perp they knew, that quickly took them the 200 feet to the woods. The perp, had he seen TG, could have just said, "shhhhhhh! I don't want you to get in trouble!"

 

[GrainneDhu]

RE KATYDID23 and why other in family are not missing..The kids could of been taken POSSIBLY to keep DM from opening his mouth too much at trial to show people are serious here and what could happen. THey did go disappearing day after not guilty plea .POSSIBLE paddle boater POSSIBLY known to the family which IM not going to go over anymore its getting too much . :/ Im glad the judge didnt delay his DM court date too looong and THe girls are mostly what i give a hoot about right now at this point. He needs to get to court suit up and take whats coming his way however unfortunate that maybe. Thats What am going on till I read or hear some real news from the FBI.
I dont believe they biked all the way down there to meet a stranger off craigs list. whoever posted that ..not to be rude. I dont believe the boogey man was hiding in the grassy area waiting for perfect time all day .I dont believe it was unplanned. I dont believe my posting is going to help the situation at this point .SO ...... Hopeing and Praying

The problem is with the theory that the girls were grabbed to keep DM quiet is that he'd already taken the first step that way the day before. He had a plea bargain and decided to turn it down.

Plea bargains for drug charges almost invariably include a requirement to testify against other people. If DM intended to testify against anyone else he would have accepted the plea bargain.

However, he turned it down the day before the girls disappeared. That means that in some way, he's going to argue that he was not guilty as charged.

Now, I don't think a viable defence includes "yeah, these guys are all guilty but I'm not."

In other words, accepting a plea bargain would be bad news for his co-defendants but a not guilty plea was good news.

I think anyone he might have testified against would much prefer the status quo as of the morning the girls disappeared (DM pleading not guilty). They wouldn't do something to change that.

 

[JaimeInLA]

The problem is with the theory that the girls were grabbed to keep DM quiet is that he'd already taken the first step that way the day before. He had a plea bargain and decided to turn it down.

Plea bargains for drug charges almost invariably include a requirement to testify against other people. If DM intended to testify against anyone else he would have accepted the plea bargain.

However, he turned it down the day before the girls disappeared. That means that in some way, he's going to argue that he was not guilty as charged.

Now, I don't think a viable defence includes "yeah, these guys are all guilty but I'm not."

In other words, accepting a plea bargain would be bad news for his co-defendants but a not guilty plea was good news.

I think anyone he might have testified against would much prefer the status quo as of the morning the girls disappeared (DM pleading not guilty). They wouldn't do something to change that.

According to Wylma Cook, he had ALREADY given up info on others in the drug chain. That's why he was offered the plea bargain. Whether he turned it down or not is irrelevant. He had already narc'ed. The damage was done.

It is possible that one of the people he ratted out was angry enough to take Lyric as payback. Elizabeth - wrong place, wrong time.

 

[Copper]

I might have asked this already. Apologies if I have. Is there any chance the girls could have been just down by the water doing whatever, but not being abducted, and out of sight when TG rides by

 

[GrainneDhu]

I've been reading all you have been saying...but what my brain keeps going back to is why the Aunt who lives in Waterloo knew to look at the lake for the girls?

I believe there is a reason she knew they were there...(I am not accusing her) I just think she has a notion or thought as to why they went there maybe more than the parents...

Either exploring or meeting someone....

Just MY Opinion of Course

That gives me a question for the locals.

Of the parks and elementary school(s) in Evansdale, which would be most difficult to survey successfully from car? Would the others be easier to see completely from a car?

If Meyer's Lake was the only park that could not be completely surveyed from a car, then that might explain Aunt TB's gut reaction. It could be that she knew, on some subconscious level, that there was only one public place in Evansdale where the girls might not be able to be seen without getting out of a car.

I often have that sort of insight with dogs. People will tell me about their dog and the problem they are having, then something comes popping out of my mouth or keyboard that surprises even me. And then I work backwards from my suggestion and realise that my subconscious mind had already added up the clues and possibilities and done the math for me.

It's rational, it's just not the sort of rational people are used to.

 

[JaimeInLA]

I might have asked this already. Apologies if I have. Is there any chance the girls could have been just down by the water doing whatever, but not being abducted, and out of sight when TG rides by

Sure, I don't see why that isn't possible. Sure would help with the timeline!

Maybe TG was wearing earbuds and an iPod & wouldn't have heard anything.

 

[otto]

You can see PARTS of the trail, but not all of it. There are areas that have a noise barrier. I drove it today and I don't think anyone would notice anything from the highway. I'd be very surprised if anyone would notice something other than a car accident. You're just moving too fast.

Is the road construction in that area cleared up? It was single lane, slow traffic on July 13 due to road construction (per local posters).

 

[GrainneDhu]

Thanks Otto for your fabulous insight and photos!!!! Quick question - at what point on the bike trail does Maiden Lane come into play? Why would they have noticed Maiden Lane, or how would someone who was already on Maiden Lane have noticed the girls and accosted them? Where did he/she/they take the girls? How did they exit the area with both girls and leave the bikes where they were found? Thanks a million gazillion for your insight!!

Maiden Lane isn't visible from the trail and the trail isn't particularly visible from Maiden Lane, due to the trees.

I don't know the history of the area. I do know that it is common for developers to buy a plot of land and subdivide it, planning to put multiple homes on it. If they subdivide, they have to include plans for a street to access all the plots.

Maiden Lane appears to me to have been planned with that in mind. For whatever reason (the housing bubble broke?) the developer hasn't moved on the plan but the little proto-road (a strip of gravel that is overgrown with weeds) shows up on maps.

Ollipop, a verified local poster here, says he never noticed a road there before and he visits that area 2-3 times a week with his kids. The Iowa jungle has pretty much taken it over except for the little bit by the sewer lift station, which is kept clear by maintenance vehicles pulling onto the gravel whenever workers check the lift station.

For people who don't live here, what I mean by the Iowa jungle is that Iowa has some of the most fertile soil on earth. Even though our climate has dramatic extremes (winter lows to 30 F below, summer highs to 105 F), plants grow like crazy here. Any place that isn't regularly discouraged by mowing, wheels or pavement will sprout plants in less than a season.

One plant scourge that is very common is poison ivy. Birds carry the seeds from place to place and almost anywhere that doesn't keep after it will start to grow poison ivy. That little 4 acre patch of woods looks like a great place for poison ivy to me.

So unless the local kid pack talks about Maiden Lane, I wouldn't expect kids to go back there unless they were wearing long pants and something other than flipflops on their feet.

 

[Copper]

Is the road construction in that area cleared up? It was single lane, slow traffic on July 13 due to road construction (per local posters).

I believe the the eastbound side has opened, but now both east and westbound sides are reduced to a single lane.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I forgot to mention that IMO, the correct term is pedal boat, rather than paddle boat.

Like me, you have chosen not to fill out your locale.

However, I'm venturing to say you're not from Iowa because to an Iowan, one of those pedal powered thingies is a paddle boat.

And just to be sure, one of the WS'ers emailed LE and got an answer: yes, by paddle boat they meant a pedal powered thingie.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I'm in MN (cabin in WI) and I agree, people do often call them paddle boats but that's not correct. I only mentioned it because if it is an important part of the case, it is important that the correct name is used IMO. Just trying to get the correct term out there, that's all.

The term "paddle boat" is what is being used by LE.

ETA: and this is the year that the Hawkeyes are gonna bring home Floyd of Rosedale!

That's because LE is located in Iowa and knows that if they said "pedal boat" most people would be like me and go "huh? what sort of thing is that?"

 

[GrainneDhu]

If I remember correctly, the Collins were caring for Lyric during the time Misty was in prison. I wonder why Lyric was removed from the Collins and put in the care of the 70 year old Grandmother.

Misty was in prison and halfway house less than 18 months. She got out of the halfway house and was on probation. She went back to prison for 5 months ending in May 2012 for probation violation.

My guess is that Lyric was not removed from the Collins home. Grandma C took custody of her so that she would be living in the same home as Misty. This is just my guess, I'm not privy to the family's private decisions.

ETA: Misty was not in prison in 2012; she was back in the halfway house for probation violation.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Sure, I don't see why that isn't possible. Sure would help with the timeline!

Maybe TG was wearing earbuds and an iPod & wouldn't have heard anything.

I think that is very possible - not many people bike/walk/jog or do anything outdoors without wearing earbuds and listening to music or whatever, IMO.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Even if he/she/they or the girls didn't walk among the weeds and trees by the fence, the water would not have been that deep to wade through. And I'm sure a perp would. Not familiar with leech invested lakes, but would they be right at the edge if someone waded in? TIA

We need Ollipop to take photos of the SE corner of the lake from the inside of the fence from the jetty looking toward the woods and the trail.

HINT.......

Yes, leeches are attracted to movement in the water. And they like warmth, so they are found more in shallow water than deep water.

My experience as a kid tells me that the more likely a person is to be totally freaked out by finding a leech on them, the more likely it is they will have a leech.

And the more likely a given kid's mother is to lose it when she sees a leech wound (they bleed for literally 6-12 hours after the leech has been removed), the more likely the kid will get a leech. Not only are leeches gross and disgusting, they are tattletale vermin who should all be dead, Dead, DEAD!!!

Ahem. My inner child got control of the keyboard there.

My mom just laughed and said "it's a long way from your heart, you'll survive." But my friend's mom was constantly deciding my friend got into too much trouble when she ran around with the neighbourhood kid pack.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I need to go back and try to find out if Lyric went to Grandma when Misty was released or when Heather began having health problems.

In the very first thread to this case, a poster linked to court documents that showed that Grandma C got custody of Lyric in 2007.

That coincides pretty well with Misty's first release from a halfway house.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Lets just call it a creeper boat...

 

[hollyblue]

I think that is very possible - not many people bike/walk/jog or do anything outdoors without wearing earbuds and listening to music or whatever, IMO.

JMO, yes, and they are crusing for a brusin'. How can you stay aware when you can't hear a thing that's going on around you. More of a target for that very reason. Don't do that!!

 

[hambirg]

I keep wondering if someone had been stalking them. And the lunch time hour 12-1 makes me wonder abt a perp on their lunch hour.

I'm not caught up yet, but I had to comment. This is an EXCELLENT point!

IF the perp did snatch the girls on their lunch break, it would be important to find out who in the area, on local jobs, etc, didn't return from lunch.

I hope this is something LE is asking around about. It's just my gut. . .but I'm wondering about workers that are in the area just for work. . . contract jobs. . .etc.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I wonder why Klass Kids or some similiar organization hasn't gotten involved. I wonder if we will hear anyone from the family make a plea to the abductor(s). While following Lisa Irwin's case, I read that the FBI really encourages the family to make an emotional appeal to the abductor when they think that is what has happened to the child. I'm not faulting the family and I know there are issues in the family that are causing further strain on them, but it seems like we would hear atleast one passionate plea for the abductor(s) to release the girls. Why hasn't that happened? Did I miss it? I wish an organization for missing kids would work with the families.

I think you've missed several. Drew and Heather Collins have said that they have already forgiven the person responsible, please just let the girls go somewhere they'll have access to a telephone. Grandma Cook has said it's okay if the girls have already been hurt, just let them go somewhere public so they can come home.

I don't think you can get more imploring than that.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Septic tanks scare me. No one wants to have to look inside a septic tank when kids are missing. No one thinks it's weird if septic tanks stink. MOO

There was a case back in the 1970s in Iowa where the perp put the body into a septic tank on someone else's property (I'm going on memory here, not a media cite, so take this as a rumour).

The people who lived in the house called for a clean out because all of a sudden their septic tank smelled really, really, really bad. Not like it had ever smiled before. When the clean out guy got there and looked in, he could see body parts.

So if the girls' bodies went into a septic tank by an occupied house, it could be that the occupants would notice it fairly quickly.