IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #13

[nikb]

I'm still thinking about maybe they were racing to/from the lake, or dared each other to race to/from the lake, or on foot through the "creepy" part, and back. Or they were arguing over some sort of kid-fight stuff, Lyric threw Elizabeth's purse, and they jumped off bikes while Elizabeth chased Lyric?Lyric wanted to keep riding and tossed Elizabeth's purse to cause a delay in leaving the lake? I hate to admit it but I would've done that to my brother, fling a toy to delay him from whatever.

I can see kids completely innocently doing any of the above. Clearly something went wrong in any of these scenarios, but maybe one's plausible for part of it? I'm just throwing ideas out there. The "racing" or "chasing each other" explains to me their scent by the water, in the woods, the scent disapparing (they ran to the woodsy area then headed back to their bikes), and possibly even the purse. I must say it makes me really sad to picture them playing around in any of these scenarios and something bad happening.

I'm barely beginning to form any theory other than "hmm I wonder" but that whole "dropped the bikes to chase each other for some reason" keeps coming into my head. IMO, MOO etc.

 

[SapphireSteel]

One, located at the parking area across the lake from the jetty.


I know you're hung on that comment by Pahl, but I interpreted it differently. He had said his phone was 8 minutes slower than the CCTV timestamp. Then he mentions how far someone could travel in 8 minutes. I believe you hear him relating that the LE that surrounded him kept discussing some 8-minute window, but I hear him commenting on what a difference 8 minutes would make in the timeline.
http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

SBM

thanks for the pic

You're right I am hung up on that comment by Pahl.

This comment -

“It’s pretty hard for girls to get a mile and a half away ... in eight minutes,” Pahl said. “I don’t even think I could ride a bike a mile in eight minutes.”

To me, Pahl believes the timeline for the girls to get to the lake is 8 minutes. He can't personally see how they biked that fast, obviously, but it's clear to me he is talking about a definite time frame, not a "this clocks faster than that clock" issue.

Or maybe I just want to believe that because we have so little else to go on...

:banghead:

 

[Ollipop]

...SBM...
Also....about Maiden Lane....are there any photos from street level that anyone can post? Also, is it gravel?

Pic 1: This is the entrance of Maiden Lane, taken from the driveway at the lift house. Note that it certainly doesn't invite traffic. If you didn't know there was a "road" back there, you wouldn't consider driving in. This was the first time I saw it, and I noticed tire tracks in the crushed foliage which really didn't photograph well. I came home and someone on here had posted the Bing map with Maiden Lane clearly marked, so I went back to get better pics.

Pic 2: Maiden Lane as seen from the trail.

Pic 3: Another shot of the entrance to Maiden Lane. I think the tire tracks are more visible in this shot (different camera, closer).

Pic 4: A few steps down Maiden Lane, looking back to the street. Note that it curves slightly and drops in elevation considerably. A car even just this far in is not visible from Arbutus.

Pic 5: The jetty from the best spot to access the lake from Maiden Lane. Note that the lake has been drained considerably, and you can see where its still muddy, and where the vegetation begins is where the water level was at. It would be difficult to drown in that spot if you knew how to swim (less than knee deep for almost the whole corner, not even sure a paddleboat could navigate that shallow with more than one person). Also, I would think any footprints along, or even just in, the water here would have been noticeable for days afterwards.

 

[Bettylou4you]

Hi. Long time reader, 1st time posting here. I have followed many other missing persons cases and wonder if this abduction could be related to the numerous other cases of young blonde women in the midwest. PI Bill Warner links many of these abductions with travelling road construction projects and 9 of them were abducted on days with 3 in the date. Both these conditions apply to these girls.


http://pibillwarner.wordpress.com/2...ed-by-a-facebook-predator-cops-have-no-clues/

 

[Confusion]

Hi. Long time reader, 1st time posting here. I have followed many other missing persons cases and wonder if this abduction could be related to the numerous other cases of young blonde women in the midwest. PI Bill Warner links many of these abductions with travelling road construction projects and 9 of them were abducted on days with 3 in the date. Both these conditions apply to these girls.


http://pibillwarner.wordpress.com/2...ed-by-a-facebook-predator-cops-have-no-clues/

These girls are much younger than all of those young women, and no really even close to the same type. Interesting theory though.

 

[Aunt B]

Thank you very much for the photos, Ollipop!

So, the lane is very, very overgrown....the ground is more like just dirt, as opposed to gravel, is that correct?

 

[Copper]

Ollipop, I have a quick question. Your second picture looking at Maiden Lane from the trail... is it pretty obvious there is open space back there? Would adventurous kids riding on the trail be able to see Maiden Lane and realize there is space to be explored... and then get back there by climbing over or doing an end run around the fence?

I am trying to get an idea how many people might know of Maiden Lane without knowing it's Maiden Lane.

 

[Jules71]

Hi. Long time reader, 1st time posting here. I have followed many other missing persons cases and wonder if this abduction could be related to the numerous other cases of young blonde women in the midwest. PI Bill Warner links many of these abductions with travelling road construction projects and 9 of them were abducted on days with 3 in the date. Both these conditions apply to these girls.


http://pibillwarner.wordpress.com/2...ed-by-a-facebook-predator-cops-have-no-clues/

Welcome! Glad you are here! :welcome:

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

 

[Ollipop]

SBM

thanks for the pic

You're right I am hung up on that comment by Pahl.

This comment -

“It’s pretty hard for girls to get a mile and a half away ... in eight minutes,” Pahl said. “I don’t even think I could ride a bike a mile in eight minutes.”

To me, Pahl believes the timeline for the girls to get to the lake is 8 minutes. He can't personally see how they biked that fast, obviously, but it's clear to me he is talking about a definite time frame, not a "this clocks faster than that clock" issue.

Or maybe I just want to believe that because we have so little else to go on...

:banghead:

Its really no different than me being hung up on Gamerdinger's time. But LE seems willing to completely overlook them both - or at least doesn't see the need to fine-tune the timeline for the public. I can see how you interpret it, and it makes sense, but if he and LE know that the video was captured at 12:19, and that Gamerdinger claims to have seen the bikes at 12:20, then where/why is he measuring the coverable distance in 8 minutes, I wonder. Moreso, why did the reporter not wonder the same, and make a modicum of effort to clarify? Do you think it is just coincidence that his phone's clock is off by the same amount of time that LE considers for the incident to occur. Is it possible his phone is the one that is off, not the camera? Could he be like me and easily confuse which clock was the faster, which was the slower?

Jumping off on a tangent, if the girls are seen on cctv at 12:19, or 12:11, or 12:03, then Gamerdinger's spotting of the bikes at 12:20-ish seriously limits the time available to stage the bikes. From anywhere in Evansdale, you could probably get to Maiden Lane quickly by vehicle, but not much more quickly than by bike. Then you'd still have to know exactly where and how best to navigate Maiden Lane, get the bikes and purse out, get them over the fence and down the path to the gate (unless they were found just over the fence from Maiden, I think the exact location is a bit vague but all comments point to the gate), then back over the fence to the vehicle before Gamerdinger whizzes by to whiz. It could happen, but wow, it seems it would just have to go perfectly.

We can choose to discount one or both of these sightings, but that seems counter-intuitive to me, like we're trying to make the facts fit our version of events, rather than the other way around.

Am I making sense?



Pic 1: My mind trying to make sense of all this. Note I'm getting nowhere, but exhausting myself in the process.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I think the problem has to do with policy, which presently seems to be to follow the evidence. From Day One and then as the days went by, LE zeroed in on the lake (and in hindsight, I admit they had excellent reason to do so). But if the girls were in the lake, either drowned or dumped, they'd be dead. And there would be nothing for LE to do for them if they were dead. But if the girls had been abducted, they could still be alive. And if they were alive, LE might still have been able to save them.

My point, as a policy LE needs to operation under the assumption missing children are alive to be found and saved and therefore the first priority is to find and save them. That might not be the most efficient use of resources, it might make LE look bad if they're wrong and it might prolong the suffering of parents and give them false hope if their child is indeed at the bottom of a lake. But I think it is a moral obligation to our missing children.

I honestly don't see any delay on the part of LE in looking for the girls as live victims. The first two days of the investigation, yes, they checked the lake with sonar, had divers in and dragged it. They had to; it is much more likely for two children to drown than to be abducted.

But at the very same time, they had over 1000 volunteers search 12 square miles of terrain (under absolutely horrid conditions). They checked the local RSOs. They interviewed the parents, apparently pretty intensively (MCM said that she spent 11 hours that first Saturday being interviewed by LE). They called in DCI and the FBI.

Draining the lake attracted a lot of media attention but it actually took a minimal amount of effort from the investigation. The FBI divers would never have been involved in the investigation if they hadn't been needed for the dives (they're specialists). The guys in kayaks paddling around were firefighters; again, not personnel that would normally be investigating disappearances.

The only LE personnel diverted were an officer to keep an eye on the cordoned off area. That was probably a low ranking patrol officer who would not ordinarily be involved in investigation anyway (disappearances usually go to detectives versus patrol).

LE got the parents' cell phones that first Saturday and started checking out the numbers they found that way.

I think that from sometime around 7 pm 13 July LE started treating this as a two pronged investigation: lost children or abducted children.

 

[Jules71]

Olli- so the area where the bikes were found was not taped off with police tape the night of the 13th, right? Total contamination of crime scene imo.

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[GrainneDhu]

Ollipop posted planning maps from 1930, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980 and 2011 early this morning. It shows that Maiden Lane has been in existence since at least the 1930s and that it became more overgrown between the 1970s and1980s after the highway was built. I speculated that it was a party spot for local teens until the late 1970s. The grandmother certainly knew about Maiden Lane. That suggests to me two possibilities: someone in their 40s that partied there in the 70s, or the offspring of someone that partied there in the 70s and heard about the area through the parent - a parent that fondly remembers partying in the area.

Or someone who discovered it on their own as a teenager exploring the area.

I know as a kid, I knew spots that adults apparently didn't know about. Part of it was due to being shorter and smaller than adults, so I could go places an adult couldn't go.

Part of it was plain old curiosity. Adults tend to be more goal oriented that kids are. An adult goes out the door with a plan for what they are going to do. As a kid, I went out the door with just a vague expectation that I would have some fun or have an adventure.

Or both.

As for the girls wanting to avoid the creepy section of trail, I find that hard to believe. That was exactly the sort of thing that attracted me as a child! A little bit creepy, a little bit scary, going somewhere like that gave adventures an edge.

Sort of like telling ghost stories at night. It's scary but somehow, I just couldn't resist them, either. Ghost stories gave the night some edge and made it more fun, somehow, to venture to familiar places.

 

[CHERIE.T]

I still think we need to adhere to the KISS method:

[ b]keep it simple silly. [/b]


Keep it simple, don't make things over complicated. Don't over think theories.

Moo

 

[pearl]

I'm just wondering about this. I wonder if the girls or one of the girls had gotten any new toy, stuffed animal, or clothes that the parents/guardians did not know where the item came from. Surely, LE searched the girls' rooms in their houses looking for clues.

 

[Ollipop]

Thank you very much for the photos, Ollipop!

So, the lane is very, very overgrown....the ground is more like just dirt, as opposed to gravel, is that correct?

Yes and no. It appears to have been a gravel road at some point. This morning I posted aerial photos of the area from the 30's, 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, and recently. I would doubt anyone has attended to the surface of this road since the 80's or 90's, but then, there is that temporary restraining fence running between "the road" (if you could call it that) and the lake. I have no idea what that is for, and I assume it was left there after all the recent work done at the lake during the previous draining. For the most part, it is dirt/grass/weeds in there.

Ollipop, I have a quick question. Your second picture looking at Maiden Lane from the trail... is it pretty obvious there is open space back there? Would adventurous kids riding on the trail be able to see Maiden Lane and realize there is space to be explored... and then get back there by climbing over or doing an end run around the fence?

I am trying to get an idea how many people might know of Maiden Lane without knowing it's Maiden Lane.

Yes. I have noticed the clearing back there on many occasions, even have seen people fishing from lawn chairs, so I knew there was room to maneuver in there, but I had no idea it was accessible from Arbutus, or that a vehicle could drive in there. I had always assumed the only way in was along the fence on the trail or from private property on the lake.

Pic 1: Looking through the gate towards Maiden Lane.

Pic 2: Maiden Lane, looking back towards the gate.

Pic 3: Three giant energy drink cans laying "in the middle of the road," on Maiden Lane

Pic 4: The trail and fences from Maiden Lane (facing SW)

Pic 5: From Maiden Lane, along the fenceline to the jetty (which has a pump on it facilitating the draining of the lake)

 

[CHERIE.T]

I'm just wondering about this. I wonder if the girls or one of the girls had gotten any new toy, stuffed animal, or clothes that the parents/guardians did not know where the item came from. Surely, LE searched the girls' rooms in their houses looking for clues.

That's a great question pearl.
Would go along with a perp trying
To gain the girls trust.

 

[Ollipop]

Olli- so the area where the bikes were found was not taped off with police tape the night of the 13th, right? Total contamination of crime scene imo.

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Not that I was aware of, but I didn't go that far. When they finally cleared the lake, and officially called it an abduction, is when all the tape I saw went up.

 

[CHERIE.T]

Nikki....welcome!*!
The last media- news report I read was dated August 7 and mentioned LEs booth at the fair.

 

[OceanEyes]

Yes and no. It appears to have been a gravel road at some point. This morning I posted aerial photos of the area from the 30's, 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, and recently. I would doubt anyone has attended to the surface of this road since the 80's or 90's, but then, there is that temporary restraining fence running between "the road" (if you could call it that) and the lake. I have no idea what that is for, and I assume it was left there after all the recent work done at the lake during the previous draining. For the most part, it is dirt/grass/weeds in there.



Yes. I have noticed the clearing back there on many occasions, even have seen people fishing from lawn chairs, so I knew there was room to maneuver in there, but I had no idea it was accessible from Arbutus, or that a vehicle could drive in there. I had always assumed the only way in was along the fence on the trail or from private property on the lake.

Pic 1: Looking through the gate towards Maiden Lane.

Pic 2: Maiden Lane, looking back towards the gate.

Pic 3: Three giant energy drink cans laying "in the middle of the road," on Maiden Lane

Pic 4: The trail and fences from Maiden Lane (facing SW)

Pic 5: From Maiden Lane, along the fenceline to the jetty (which has a pump on it facilitating the draining of the lake)

Just had to comment on the picture of the 3 energy drinks. I find it interesting that 2 cans are crushed and 1 isn't. It makes me think that they could be from 2 or more people.

 

[Confusion]

I honestly don't see any delay on the part of LE in looking for the girls as live victims. The first two days of the investigation, yes, they checked the lake with sonar, had divers in and dragged it. They had to; it is much more likely for two children to drown than to be abducted.

SBM

I agreee with your whole post, but didn't want to use the space to copy it all. From what I've seen, I think that they have a very good PD there even though they haven't found the girls (yet!), especially considering that they aren't normally dealing with abductions on a daily basis like some major cities do.

I think they've really done pretty much everything they can, although there may have been better ways to do some of them.