IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[Marilynilpa]

First the boat, then cocoa, now horses?:truce:

Well, I never personally bought into the paddleboat story, and the cocoa was brought up by someone else. But the horses thing was just an idea someone threw out to possibly explain what could have happened. I don't think we should disregard anyone's ideas at this point.

 

[CoeTrawk]

Okay ... let's add the fact that one bike is a BMX and the other is ridden by a 4'11" girl that weighs 145 pounds. For me, that means they are riding slower than the average cyclist.

Additionally, there are 8 minutes between the time on the video camera (12:19) and the time that the cyclist called his daughter from the washroom (12:27), but the cyclist estimated that he saw bikes at 12:20. That makes 1 minute between the video time and the cyclist time.

But the average cyclist would be riding well under 8:00/mile. I think anyone with a pulse can ride a mile in 8 minutes. For some its easier than others, sure. But I believe even our girls could do it if they weren't dillydallying.

 

[cindysue]

I think the perp could have set up the meeting that day. The girls were riding their bikes for 45 minutes before the CCTV. They could have seen a truck and trailer with horses in it, kids love horses. The perp could have said, if you meet me down by the lake, I'll unload the horses and let you take them for a ride. The girls race to the lake, jump off their bikes and run to the truck and trailer and into the hands of the perp.

Well that could be possible, but if you think how fast they went poof then it had to be someone that knew exactly where they were gonna be at that time!! Imo

 

[katydid23]

I think the perp could have set up the meeting that day. The girls were riding their bikes for 45 minutes before the CCTV. They could have seen a truck and trailer with horses in it, kids love horses. The perp could have said, if you meet me down by the lake, I'll unload the horses and let you take them for a ride. The girls race to the lake, jump off their bikes and run to the truck and trailer and into the hands of the perp.

THAT ^^^^^ is what I have always believed, for a few reasons.

1. Grandma said in one of her interviews that they left at 11:30 and never returned. It was only that one sighting in the parking lot that she had with them that day. So where were they from 11:30 to 12:15?

No one has come forward to say they were seen riding at the park or the school or buying a soda at the mini-mart. Maybe they have some witnesses, but nothing has been leaked so far.

2. KIds that age have a very short attention span. I don't think someone could have set this into motion a day or two earlier. The kids would have told someone or asked someone, decided against it or forgotten about it, imo. The perps would have had to be in touch by cell or IM or something, if it was a long term plan.

But if they hung out with someone at a yard or a home that morning, and were invited to do something really cool, then i think it could have worked to the perps advantage.

The girls may have ridden back to the pking lot because they knew Grandma would see them and that would give them more time for their cool adventure. imo

 

[katydid23]

Well that could be possible, but if you think how fast they went poof then it had to be someone that knew exactly where they were gonna be at that time!! Imo

Exactly. I think they hung out with the perp earlier that day and were invited to do something very tempting. [ horses, puppies, ice cream, swimming pool, etc]

They were told to meet at the lakeside trail at 12:30 and not to tell anyone.

imo

 

[SapphireSteel]

What is your opinion, if you don't mind sharing? We are just throwing around ideas and picking and choosing from theories to see what fits the best.

It's not very long ago that a homeless person, a Craigs Lister, and owners around the Lake were being cast as villains too, by some posters.

Seems that was "different"

:dunno:

 

[SapphireSteel]

But the average cyclist would be riding well under 8:00/mile. I think anyone with a pulse can ride a mile in 8 minutes. For some its easier than others, sure. But I believe even our girls could do it if they weren't dillydallying.

Coe, you're a local right?

Would the lake be slightly downhill from the Auction house?

 

[iamnotagolem]

Exactly. I think they hung out with the perp earlier that day and were invited to do something very tempting. [ horses, puppies, ice cream, swimming pool, etc]

They were told to meet at the lakeside trail at 12:30 and not to tell anyone.

imo

They had already been gone 45 minutes that is plenty of time for a perp to sell the bait, no matter what it was, he didn't even have to have bait. He could have just said he had puppies, horses, rainbows, unicorns, the bait doesn't matter he could have been talking to them getting to know what they liked and said he had it and would meet them at the lake with it. The girls knew they'd been gone a while and needed to check in with granny. They didn't necessarily need to rush to the lake, but probably wanted to spend the max amount of time with said bait before need to be home by 1 for granny to leave for her appt.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Well that could be possible, but if you think how fast they went poof then it had to be someone that knew exactly where they were gonna be at that time!! Imo

That's what I've been thinking, too. When TG swerved to avoid the bikes, I think Lyric and Elizabeth were in the wooded area either of their own accord (i.e., potty break) or they were already in the hands of their abductor(s). JMO.

 

[Marilynilpa]

They had already been gone 45 minutes that is plenty of time for a perp to sell the bait, no matter what it was, he didn't even have to have bait. He could have just said he had puppies, horses, rainbows, unicorns, the bait doesn't matter he could have been talking to them getting to know what they liked and said he had it and would meet them at the lake with it. The girls knew they'd been gone a while and needed to check in with granny. They didn't necessarily need to rush to the lake, but probably wanted to spend the max amount of time with said bait before need to be home by 1 for granny to leave for her appt.

BBM

You are absolutely right, the perp(s) could have used anything as bait to get the girls there.

It's also possible it was prearranged by Lyric or Elizabeth to meet someone at that place and at that time. IMO

 

[SapphireSteel]

They had already been gone 45 minutes that is plenty of time for a perp to sell the bait, no matter what it was, he didn't even have to have bait. He could have just said he had puppies, horses, rainbows, unicorns, the bait doesn't matter he could have been talking to them getting to know what they liked and said he had it and would meet them at the lake with it. The girls knew they'd been gone a while and needed to check in with granny. They didn't necessarily need to rush to the lake, but probably wanted to spend the max amount of time with said bait before need to be home by 1 for granny to leave for her appt.

The thing is, the girls were caught on cctv riding AWAY from granmas at 12.15.

That would imply to me that they had gone home as requested at the time they were requested, and for some reason WENT BACK OUT AGAIN.

They were expected home around 12.15, grandma had already started worrying/searching by 12.30.

:moo:

 

[iamnotagolem]

It's not very long ago that a homeless person, a Craigs Lister, and owners around the Lake were being cast as villains too, by some posters.

Seems that was "different"

:dunno:

I don't have a specific person in mind, it could be any number of people. People we've heard about, people who are unknown to us.

I'm just really trying to figure out the easiest theory, I hate having to work to make things fit. It's like trying to cram 3 pieces of toast in the toaster when you have two that fit just fine.

I think if the girls rode their bikes to the lake, they were either lured there with bait, or instructed to meet there by someone of authority to them. If they were lured, I would think (and I probably wrong) it would need to be something that would make sense to meet at the lake to see. The reason I mentioned horses is that if a perp said that they had puppies, I'd think the girls would be less inclined to go that far for puppies when you can get those out of the car at any park, or any street corner or parking lot. With horses they would want to ride then and the girls would be less suspicious of riding horses at the lake.

Excuse my rambling.

 

[RNER]

I think that at some point, we have to accept the facts that we have as facts. The first witness we heard about was through a comment that was brought over from Facebook. A woman said that her father was cycling on the trail, came around a blind curve and had to swerve to avoid a bike, or bikes, that were lying on the path. To be questioning today whether he was riding a bike ... it just doesn't make any sense to me. If he wasn't riding his bike, he didn't swerve, a blind curve is meaningless and the timeline of traveling from where he saw the bikes to the bathroom is extended by at least 10 minutes ... meaning that if he was at the bathroom at 12:27, he saw the bikes before the girls were seen on video. But ... that didn't happen. He was riding his bike.

Maybe it wasn't the girl's bikes that he saw! This would explain the lack of description of the bikes given to the public per LE/FBI.

 

[katydid23]

They had already been gone 45 minutes that is plenty of time for a perp to sell the bait, no matter what it was, he didn't even have to have bait. He could have just said he had puppies, horses, rainbows, unicorns, the bait doesn't matter he could have been talking to them getting to know what they liked and said he had it and would meet them at the lake with it. The girls knew they'd been gone a while and needed to check in with granny. They didn't necessarily need to rush to the lake, but probably wanted to spend the max amount of time with said bait before need to be home by 1 for granny to leave for her appt.

Especially if it was someone they knew or trusted. Even if they barely knew the person, girls that age are pretty trusting and naive. It could have been the father or uncle of one of their friends or someone who worked at the mini-mart or someone who they used to see biking or fishing at the lake. Or even, god forbid, a neighbor or family friend.

 

[iamnotagolem]

The thing is, the girls were caught on cctv riding AWAY from granmas at 12.15.

That would imply to me that they had gone home as requested at the time they were requested, and for some reason WENT BACK OUT AGAIN.

They were expected home around 12.15, grandma had already started worrying/searching by 12.30.

:moo:

That is why I get confused so much. I thought grandma initially said she last saw them at 11:30, then later said 12:15 after CCTV came out. If she saw them at 12:15 when they went by and were seen on CCTV why didnt she just call to them to come in?

 

[hambirg]

The only problem I continue to have with this theory is, why drop the bikes off at the lake when they could have been left anywhere, certainly somewhere more accessible than the lake trail.:waitasec:

Why drop off the bikes at all? Either leave them where the girls were abducted, or put them in the vehicle and dump the bikes later. Why take the time, after abducting two girls, to drive to the lake and discard the bikes?

That is why I have a hard time with the staged bikes theory. JMO

I know I said this earlier, but if the site of abduction was somebody's home. . .or near their home, they would not want to leave the bikes there.

And depending on the situation, they may not have had time to leave the bikes and dump them later. . .like if they were expecting someone home at a certain time, they would have had to get the bikes out of there quickly. . . .OR what if the vehicle was a work van. . .they wouldn't have the option of leaving the bikes in it.

All just MOO.

Also, I agree with others that think this timeline of the cctv and the sighting by TG is a problem. All we really know is that LE claims that the last confirmed sighting of the girls (not the bikes) is when they are caught on cctv at 12:15ish. If they rode directly to the lake, there is very little time for an abduction or luring if we assume that is the site of the abduction and it happened before TG rode by.

What if we assume that the girls hadn't been abducted yet? What about the man that told the aunt he saw the girls riding east at 2:30? But why wouldn't the girls had gone home when they knew they were suppose to go with grandma?

So many questions, so few answers! :banghead:

 

[iamnotagolem]

Maybe it wasn't the girl's bikes that he saw! This would explain the lack of description of the bikes given to the public per LE/FBI.

I've considered that, too. But the likelihood of that seems extremely low. I would think the likelihood of that would be just as likely as LE finding the wrong bikes by the lake.

I think it is possible that TG saw the bikes on a different day, unless he mentioned something to his daughter on the day that he saw the bikes. Was it typical of him to call his daughter during his potty break during his bike ride? If so, then he could have just confused the day of seeing the bikes and it really could have been different bikes.

 

[Sere-nity]

Just because somebody may be highly respectable by the community, does not mean they can do no wrong.

 

[SapphireSteel]

I've considered that, too. But the likelihood of that seems extremely low. I would think the likelihood of that would be just as likely as LE finding the wrong bikes by the lake.

I think it is possible that TG saw the bikes on a different day, unless he mentioned something to his daughter on the day that he saw the bikes. Was it typical of him to call his daughter during his potty break during his bike ride? If so, then he could have just confused the day of seeing the bikes and it really could have been different bikes.

TG was not confused.

He went to the police station later in the day to report what he'd seen, then spoke to officers on the trail the next day.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Just because somebody may be highly respectable by the community, does not mean they can do no wrong.

He has not been named as a POI so we cannot sleuth him.