IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #16

[Confusion]

Now make that four people telling consistent accounts, because I'm counting Mr P and his "how could they get that far in 8 minutes" statement.
...
The only thing the perp/s could not take into account prior was Mr P, G and C.

Flies in the ointment.

:cow:

SBM
In addition to that, the 5th witness (WC) also fits with the time frame everybody else is working in. It almost feels like if one is lying, they all are, and that would make absolutely no sense at all to me. I can't see any reason for any kind of conspiracy between that group of unrelated people (as far as I can tell, not just family-wise). It seems that if WC lied about the girls riding past the house around 12:15, then Mr. P would have to have faked evidence and lied (with the only other possiblity that the bikers taped were not the girls.) I guess Mr.C or Mr.G could have been telling the truth if the other wasn't, but their times fit together too well not to support each other, and again, I see no reason for that to be the case unless they're both telling the truth... or Mr. C saw the wrong girls and/or Gr. G saw the wrong bikes.

 

[RNER]

Eliminate one of the tips and everything fits. Don't move it around - remove it. MOO

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

Add 2 different sets of bikes and everything fits also!

 

[RNER]

I think they are both telling the truth and I honestly can't see why others don't.

:dunno:

I agree with you!

 

[Confusion]

However, I hope that anybody who is smart enough to find a site such as this, is smart enough to see that we're only speculating (from a distance) on what LE might be withholding. If we posters have learned nothing else from following past cases, we've learned that LE is very good at keeping evidence "close to the vest" that they don't want leaked. And even when we think they've accidentally leaked an item, it turns out they "planted the item" on purpose. We've seen it again and again.

SBM

I don't know how smart you have to be to find this place, I did! :waitasec: On a more serious note, all I did was google the names of the girls because someone posted one of their missing posters on my FB page and for some reason it affected me more than most of them do. (maybe because both girls remind me of kids I actually know). The information I worry about being discussed isn't anything LE has "let slip". but things they haven't mentioned and/or have denied. There are some people here who are very good at digging up information seemingly out of thin air, and with all of the scenarios thought up, it's very possible that someone has/will hit on what really happened. I'm just worried about what the perp/s will do in that case if they're afraid LE will reach the same conclusion before they've figured out how to safely (for them) to release the girls.

 

[Bootsctr]

I am sure the family is grateful for everyone who has come forward and told what they saw. I know I would be thankful to anyone who stepped forward with any tidbit of information.

 

[RNER]

I am not certain where fareway is, I'm sorry. I am a member of another discussion group and this information was shared on there. I thought it may shed some light on the time line or factors in this case for those on this thread who r banging our heads trying to figure it out

Another person on another discussion group that I AM ALSO AMEMBER OF shared this information from facebook. I agree that the information about Fareway would be very helpful, but infortunately it has not been reported from a reliable source or confirmed by LE or media, therefore cannot be discussed here...at least not until released publicly. :what:

 

[SapphireSteel]

I don't think there were two different sets of bikes, only because it's extra work, with no real benefit. I think the girls actual bikes were needed so they could be staged to imply they had gone into the lake.

I think the bikes and the girls were picked up somewhere at/very close to the lake. The girls were rushing to the lake on some sort of a mission, as yet unknown, which explains why they got there so quickly.

Two scenarios fit best in my mind -

1. The girls were intercepted somewhere between Lake Ave and the lake itself. There were three perps. Two (perhaps very young) who volunteered to ride the girls bikes home for them, and staged them at the lake instead as part of a master plan. The girls willingly left their bikes with them to hop into a car with perp 3 who had promised x.

2. The girls actually got to the lake, and they were intercepted right there by one or two perps, one of whom was driving. They left their bikes with perp one and went willingly with perp 2 because they were promised x.

My opinion only.

 

[MNDad]

I don't trust anyone and think that each person is wrong or lying until proven otherwise. I know that everyone shoule be innocent until proven guilty, but I can't make statements that someone doesn't have a motive to lie, but I can say that someone doesn't have a motive that we know of.

I have had more theories than I can count and I am 100% convinced of them until something happens and I change my thought processes. I am probably wrong on everything, but I just don't think it is safe to automatically consider anyone credible.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Even small deceptions in cases like these, speak volumes.

 

[JaimeInLA]

I wonder if the Collins home or the Cook home needed plumbing service in the past few months? Lizzie is chatty and likes to make friends with people. Elizabeth Smart was taken by a man who did work in her home. For some reason, out of all the missing girl cases out there, she was moved to speak publicly about THIS case. Hmmm....

 

[GrainneDhu]

Two things I've been pondering. For a person to actually act on an urge to abduct two little girls, they are risking being in prison 4 ever. That is some huge risk. Either they are so driven by an urge to do something like this and risk it all..or...they think that what they are doing is not punishable to that degree, i.e., that it will be viewed as a custodial event..or just borrowing them for awhile...something crazy like that. I'm going with the first one..the urge..the pedo, but stranger things have happened.

I'd say the first with a healthy dollop of "I won't get caught."

Harsher sentences have little to no deterrent effect because the vast majority of people deliberately committing a crime don't think they will be caught.

 

[palaminodee]

Two things I've been pondering. For a person to actually act on an urge to abduct two little girls, they are risking being in prison 4 ever. That is some huge risk. Either they are so driven by an urge to do something like this and risk it all..or...they think that what they are doing is not punishable to that degree, i.e., that it will be viewed as a custodial event..or just borrowing them for awhile...something crazy like that. I'm going with the first one..the urge..the pedo, but stranger things have happened.

some individuals see themselves "as above the law" in my opinion...
they may get away with smaller stuff and keep escalating thinking they will never get caught...

 

[nikb]

I think they are both telling the truth and I honestly can't see why others don't.

:dunno:

I actually do too, but after the thought provoking comments yesterday responding to my post, I can see where one of them not telling the truth could change things dramatically. It's a scenario I hadn't thought of before.

A few random thoughts... all MOO.

I think that WC is a little unsure on exactly when the girls left or when she saw them last, but it was around 11:30-12:20. I think the Lederman's camera might've made her remember it was closer to 12:15. (totally innocent and understandable mistake/change IMO)

Mr. C. I think saw them somewhere from 12-1. Not the 3:00 his wife corrected him to say, since she wasn't even home at the time. I'm thinking maybe she was gone doing the newspaper delivering from 12-3 and that's where she got the time from. Even if she was home I'd think it's unusual that she'd be out watering with him unless it's something they do together regularly. Also think it's unusual that he'd even think to mention to her that the girls who apparently ride by regularly (Elizabeth at least) came by that day, until after the news reports started coming out.

Mr. G. I don't see why it took him so long to go to LE, but also don't see any reason for him to lie other than potential scenarios we can't discuss here. For some reason I think those scenarios are unlikely but it's just a gut feeling. No one's been ruled "in" or "out" so far, as far as I know. The few thoughts I've had about Mr. G's statements:

1. The bikes might've been more "neatly set down" than "laying across the path," (the semantics on this one still bug me - I'm not convinced the bikes were ever moved)
2. He saw bikes other than those belonging to the girls.
3. He didn't SEE the girls but had an iPod or something, so he didn't hear them for that reason, not because they weren't there. Or he was just really focused on his ride and dodging the bikes so he didn't notice or hear them.
4. He saw the girls quickly or from a distance but didn't realize they were both young kids, and/or didn't realize they were in trouble (which they might not have been at that point). I've never read that he said he didn't see anyone, just that he saw "no sign of the girls."

All MOO...

 

[Marilynilpa]

I wonder if the Collins home or the Cook home needed plumbing service in the past few months? Lizzie is chatty and likes to make friends with people. Elizabeth Smart was taken by a man who did work in her home. For some reason, out of all the missing girl cases out there, she was moved to speak publicly about THIS case. Hmmm....

BBM

She speaks about a lot of missing kids, IMO.

ETA: She is President of the Elizabeth Smart Foundation: http://elizabethsmartfoundation.org/elizabeth-ann-smart-president/

 

[GrainneDhu]

My husband has two brothers, one four years younger than him, the other eight years younger.

The youngest brother has a very clear memory of his great-grandmother sitting in her rocker in the kitchen, peeling apples to make pie, giving the peel to the great-grandbabies, chopping the apples and then putting them in the crust, etc. Just an ordinary sort of memory, nothing weird about it.

Except that great-grandma died about six months before he was born.

It's pretty clear how it happened. Great-grandma loved to bake and she was well known for the excellence of her apple pies. My husband also has memories of playing in the kitchen and Great-grandma giving him apple peel as a treat. The family often spoke of Great-grandma with great love and affection.

And voila, a confabulated memory was born.

I am certain my brother-in-law isn't lying. He really does have such a memory but it's a confabulated memory rather than a real one. Intellectually he knows that his great-grandmother did not live to meet him but the confabulated memory is impossible for him to discern from real memories.

Elizabeth Loftus has done research coming up with similar conclusions.

 

[iamnotagolem]

I've also wondered if the Collins hired anyone recently, had their A/C charged, ducts worked on, etc any type of work that would have initiated contact with perp and Elizabeth & Lyric. The girls likely talked to a worker in the house and if they saw him out in public they wouldn't shy away from him. In fact, the perp could have initiated his plan while at the house, weeks even months earlier. He could have talked about things the girls were interested in, or made a comment about something he had (like horses) and when he saw the that day he took the opportunity.

 

[HeinekenMan]

I have a theory. Here it is.

Someone came into contact with the girls on the trail. This person captured both of them. This person drowned or strangled both girls. This person decided he needed to dispose of the bodies. But the person needed a way to transport them from the trail. This person spotted a paddle boat. This person used the paddle boat to cross the lake. This person loaded the girls onto the paddle boat and paddled to a vehicle parked on the other side. This person loaded the girls into the vehicle and left the area.

A neighbor came home to find that his paddle boat was in the wrong place. LE used tracking dogs and tracked the girls' scent to the shoreline. They also discovered the girls' scent in the paddle boat. But they are keeping that information to themselves in the hope that the paddle boater will come forward.

Now, why would they believe that the girls were still alive? I don't have an answer for that.

And why would someone hurt the girls? I have a few theories on that.

1. A pedophile was after them.
2. They made jokes about someone, and the person became infuriated and chased after them.
3. The person was caught doing something and feared they would tell on him (masturbating in the bushes, smoking crack, etc., etc.)

 

[MNDad]

I've also wondered if the Collins hired anyone recently, had their A/C charged, ducts worked on, etc any type of work that would have initiated contact with perp and Elizabeth & Lyric. The girls likely talked to a worker in the house and if they saw him out in public they wouldn't shy away from him. In fact, the perp could have initiated his plan while at the house, weeks even months earlier. He could have talked about things the girls were interested in, or made a comment about something he had (like horses) and when he saw the that day he took the opportunity.

If I needed A/C work during this hot summer, I would probably call the company that placed an ad in every single issue of the newspaper that creatively impactful company in Evansdale puts out.

 

[eileenhawkeye]

I wonder if the Collins home or the Cook home needed plumbing service in the past few months? Lizzie is chatty and likes to make friends with people. Elizabeth Smart was taken by a man who did work in her home. For some reason, out of all the missing girl cases out there, she was moved to speak publicly about THIS case. Hmmm....

I believe Elizabeth is a correspondent for the Today show, regarding missing children, so I would assume she has commented on many recent cases.

 

[superbee]

Pretty creepy if she accepted a friend request from someone she now believes to be the perp or perps. I notice she says "even"...like "I even accepted this person into my circle of friends"..expressing a sort of guilt or regret that she trusted somebody..or a couple of somebodys...something like that...shudder.

She may be second-guessing herself or expressing regret at accepting them, but one good thing, it unlocks a page that would be closed until they were friended.