IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #17

[peeples]

I'm from Cedar Falls, the feeling among my group of friends is that the girls will not be coming home

 

[SapphireSteel]

12:19 - girls seen behind the Auction Shop
12:27 - the cyclist called his daughter

8 minutes...this case should be called the "case of the 8 minutes".

It also is the amount of time Mr P states his cctv was BEHIND his cell...which makes the cctv time stamp 12.11...add 8 minutes you have 12.20 (close enough).

I have long ago given up on trying to analyse time differences and decided that if Mr P thinks there is an 8 minute time frame for the girls to get to the lake, then thats what it is.

He did spend a day and a half with the FBI after all, and by all accounts is not a stupid man liable to "confabulation" or imagination.

:moo:

 

[elmomom]

12:19 - girls seen behind the Auction Shop
12:27 - the cyclist called his daughter

The same cyclist who Abben claimed not to have heard of when asked, more than once?
Isn't interesting that he downplayed the witness into oblivion, but yet, we are presupposing that the FBI is working on a timeline that uses his sighting as a core component?
We all jumped to the conclusion that the TG sighting was the "other end" of the "eight minutes", but do we really know that?

Just jumping off your post Otto, not trying to disagree, just pondering....

 

[LittleMissContrary]

Has anyone in LE actually confirmed the fact that the dogs tracked the girls scent to the lake? In my opinion, I don't think Abben would have stated that the bikes were there but that did not mean the girls were ever there if the dogs had tracked their scent to the water's edge.

Regarding Elk Run Heights, interesting to learn that there is a truckstop in that area.

I honestly feel we need to stop thinking in terms of what the LEO have said, and take a close look at what they have been doing.
It seems some hint of what they are thinking can be seen in the most recent search in the Elk Run area.

Was it a tip based move, or a theoretical move? Does it suggest that the police feel that a local person is the perp?

Anyone care to start throwing out some ideas?

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I'm from Cedar Falls, the feeling among my group of friends is that the girls will not be coming home

Im afraid you and your friends are going to be right.

The odds are against these children. Being found alive after this long is extremely rare.

Imo, I think they were most likely killed shortly after being abducted. To have them alive for much longer would be a high risk for the predator since he had to know LE would be looking for them. Having one alive kidnapped child would be risky but having two would even be more of a high risk.

IMO

 

[elmomom]

8 minutes...this case should be called the "case of the 8 minutes".

It also is the amount of time Mr P states his cctv was BEHIND his cell...which makes the cctv time stamp 12.11...add 8 minutes you have 12.20 (close enough).

I have long ago given up on trying to analyse time differences and decided that if Mr P thinks there is an 8 minute time frame for the girls to get to the lake, then thats what it is.

He did spend a day and a half with the FBI after all, and by all accounts is not a stupid man liable to "confabulation" or imagination.

:moo:

I don't remember any character witnesses for MrP, do you have a link?

 

[oceanblueeyes]

8 minutes...this case should be called the "case of the 8 minutes".

It also is the amount of time Mr P states his cctv was BEHIND his cell...which makes the cctv time stamp 12.11...add 8 minutes you have 12.20 (close enough).

I have long ago given up on trying to analyse time differences and decided that if Mr P thinks there is an 8 minute time frame for the girls to get to the lake, then thats what it is.

He did spend a day and a half with the FBI after all, and by all accounts is not a stupid man liable to "confabulation" or imagination.

:moo:

Everytime I see "8 minutes' now I think about the recent case where the pedophile came into the home and took the liitle girl out of her home..raped her ...murdered her and threw her body in the water. It took him all of 8 minutes to go in the home and carry this child out.

IMO

 

[Snufamonbobball]

If the girls were never at the lake, and the bikes were left at the lake to mislead LE, there is the possibility the girls went inside a house or garage, where they would have been trapped. This is what happened to Somer Thompson. She went inside a house to see a dog, and ran into a monster.

 

[LaylaD]

My apologies in advance if this has been discussed already... I'm trying to locate the news video for Perez's 7/17/12 recap of the case. The text of the news report is on the ABC site (http://abcnews.go.com/US/missing-iowa-girls-fbi-dogs-detect-cousins-scents/story?id=16798151) but the video linked to this text is for a different report.

Does anyone have a better link for the video? The video discusses both the FBI dogs, and Mr. C's statement (giving it a 12 noon to 1 pm timeframe).

Thanks for any insight on the missing video.

 

[otto]

It really seems to me that LE is not finding either sighting credible.

They seem to be going by the last time they were seen is when they were riding their bikes behind the stores when it was captured on video.

That's my understanding as well. Abben mentioned early on that the bikes may have been staged, and that the girls (on camera) appear to be riding in the wrong direction for going to the SE tip of the lake. When we add that the last credible sighting of the girls was at about 12:15 (camera), then I get the impression that police are seriously looking at the possibility that the girls were kidnapped in the parking lot.

 

[mahoolin]

I guess maybe I've been misreading a lot lately (there are a lot of things that would surprise me more :blushing, but I thought they said there were no confirmed sightings, not that the witnesses weren't credible. I really don't know how they'd confirm it, unless others saw the same thing at the same time. It really doesn't sound like anyone would be a confirmed witness unless they happened to be recording something with their phone or a camera (where were all of those shutterbugs that day?!)

You've got a good point there.

Not to play devil's advocate - I think both points of view in the discussion concerning the sighting of the girls and their bikes have valid points. I'd like to add mine.

In my opinion - the media has made Mr C and Mr G witnesses. It's through reading, researching and reports from locals that these two and those connected to them have been determined to be credible.

All we have without LE/FBI statements are people who spoke to reporters who then reported the circumstances of their sighting of the girls and/or their bicycles. We are clamoring for someone to help tie these bits and pieces of information together, so to us they're important.

I'm not saying they didn't see the girls or their bikes, l'm just saying it would be nice if it were confirmed by those conducting the investigation, and not just the internet community via MSM. That information might be withheld on purpose to protect certain aspects of the investigation though so it might not be happening any time soon...

If they have been officially named I'm unaware of it, so forgive if I've misspoken. :blushing:

 

[oceanblueeyes]

That's my understanding as well. Abben mentioned early on that the bikes may have been staged, and that the girls (on camera) appear to be riding in the wrong direction for going to the SE tip of the lake. When we add that the last credible sighting of the girls was at about 12:15 (camera), then I get the impression that police are seriously looking at the possibility that the girls were kidnapped in the parking lot.

I really got the impression that Abben doesnt believe these children were kidnapped at the lake.

Also he is not sure they are alive either like the FBI would like people to think they are.

I think they were kidnapped shortly after going out of site of the camera view. Somewhere in that area.

IMO

 

[SapphireSteel]

you've got a good point there.

Not to play devil's advocate - i think both points of view in the discussion concerning the sighting of the girls and their bikes have valid points. I'd like to add mine.

In my opinion - the media has made mr c and mr g witnesses. It's through reading, researching and reports from locals that these two and those connected to them have been determined to be credible.

All we have without le/fbi statements are people who spoke to reporters who then reported the circumstances of their sighting of the girls and/or their bicycles. We are clamoring for someone to help tie these bits and pieces of information together, so to us they're important.

i'm not saying they didn't see the girls or their bikes, l'm just saying it would be nice if it were confirmed by those conducting the investigation, and not just the internet community via msm. That information might be withheld on purpose to protect certain aspects of the investigation though so it might not be happening any time soon...

If they have been officially named i'm unaware of it, so forgive if i've misspoken. :blushing:

Absolutely!!!!

They really aren't being very considerate to us sleuthers, at all.

 

[otto]

The same cyclist who Abben claimed not to have heard of when asked, more than once?
Isn't interesting that he downplayed the witness into oblivion, but yet, we are presupposing that the FBI is working on a timeline that uses his sighting as a core component?
We all jumped to the conclusion that the TG sighting was the "other end" of the "eight minutes", but do we really know that?

Just jumping off your post Otto, not trying to disagree, just pondering....

That would be the same cyclist. I don't think the FBI is working on an 8 minute timeline. The auction shop employee voiced an opinion about whether he could ride to the lake in 8 minutes ... he didn't think that he could.

 

[jacy]

I must be the burnt-out bulb on the tree, I'm clueless!
.....wish we could get hints without fear!!!

Well, my bulb shattered on the floor and then I stepped on it. Looks like I have some reading to do. I was just talking with my husband a few minutes ago, feeling so deflated. Please, girls, prove me wrong.

 

[SapphireSteel]

That would be the same cyclist. I don't think the FBI is working on an 8 minute timeline. The auction shop employee voiced an opinion about whether he could ride to the lake in 8 minutes ... he didn't think that he could.

There is an excellent post a couple of pages back about average biking speeds for children.

It is well within the bounds of likliehood that they did indeed get that far, that fast...if not faster.

I believe the poster estimated 6 minutes.

:moo:

 

[oceanblueeyes]

You certainly could.

I don't think the credibility of a prominent Evansdale businessman who spent a day and a half HELPING the FBI is "gossip", and I have REPEATEDLY stated my posts are OPINION ONLY.

But he can be mistaken. We have learned in trials here that eye witnesses are the most unreliable and the number one cause that has led to innocent people being convicted of a crime they did not do.

People can really believe they saw someone but sadly they are often mistaken. I am sure even this LE department has had tips about sightings of the girls in other states and they turned out to be faulty.

But why in the world would the FBI question this man for a day and a half about him just seeing the girls supposedly? Why would it take that long.

I had to give an eye witness statement to LE one time and it didnt take me 30 minutes and that included talking with LE and writing out my statement.

IMO

 

[Sunlight]

The camera...8 minutes slower than the US cellular clock. That means 12:19 when the girls are seen on the cctv. So what is the significance of that? Compared to what? The only other verifiable time it can be compared to is 12:27, which is when the cell call was made.

Please, somebody straighten me out with some logic.

 

[threecrazykids]

Completely off topic but I was so amazed I have to share.

We have a yellow lab who I wanted to see just how much of a sense of "tracking" he was capable of. LOL The dog has never hunted, tracked anything so I thought I'd put him to the test to see how much instinct even the non-trained dog may have.

We have 30 acres of land out behind our house that has mowed trails that we walk our lab in almost every night. Tonight, I called my dog into the house, while I sent my husband out on a section of the trail that we have never walked with him. He brushed up against 2 overhanging branches on his way (intentionally).

We typically cut through the back yard to the fence opening and head to the left as the trail that goes straight goes directly to the end of the creek and really no where else to walk but towards the left. There are literally hundreds of cut ins, outs, turns, etc that the kids all mow so there is no rhyme or reason to the trails. HOWEVER, on our walk, we take the exact same path every night.

Anyway...I sent my husband out there about 10 mins before we left. I closed the blinds so the dog didn't see him heading out there. Once I could see from inside the house he was completely out of site I said to the dog "wanna go for a walk" to which of course he got excited.

We walked out the back door (opposite of the door my husband went out of). We got to the edge of our lot (where the dog's underground fence collar would go off) and he stopped and waited for me to give him the "ok" that he could go past and onto the acreage.

I'm not kidding you guys...he didn't even break stride. He went to the treeline along the back of our house - sniffed right at the 2 spots where he had brushed - and completely ignored our EVERY NIGHT walking path. He literally sprinted right to my husband who was crouched down behind a huge brush pile under a tree he's never been to in an area he's never walked.

I was completely amazed that he did this. I fully expected him to turn left when we got to the fence and continue our walk as we do every night. Nope...he didn't even as much as turn to the left...he went straight with his nose down and then raised up a couple times and found him immediately!

Coincidence or not...it was super cool to me that he found him that fast. LOL

Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming.:woohoo:

 

[Sunlight]

But he can be mistaken. We have learned in trials here that eye witnesses are the most unreliable and the number one cause that has led to innocent people being convicted of a crime they did not do.

People can really believe they saw someone but sadly they are often mistaken. I am sure even this LE department has had tips about sightings of the girls in other states and they turned out to be faulty.

But why in the world would the FBI question this man for a day and a half about him just seeing the girls supposedly? Why would it take that long.

I had to give an eye witness statement to LE one time and it didnt take me 30 minutes and that included talking with LE and writing out my statement.

IMO

I believe I saw an article that said that LE was there for that long to look at all the footage he had and that they got a bunch of stuff from it, but that only the girls were seen on bicycles. I'm sorry, I don't have the link handy. MOO