IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #17

[katydid23]

Saphhire, I think Mr. DS and his wife RS are the owners of Cornbelt Auctions and Mr. P is their manager.

It's interesting that online an auction is advertised for Tuesday, July 12, 2012?

IMO only

really? wow.

I don't know what that means, but it is kind of intriquing.

 

[nikb]

<snipped for space> Mr C was also watering his lawn after it had rained all night and through the morning. It seems rather odd to be watering his lawn as soon as the rain stopped. Perhaps he's mistaken about the day and the girl. His wife was not home, so it doesn't matter what she says.

BBM As frustrating as it is, I've even seen conflicting information even about this point. Someone posted rainfall totals awhile back and the amount of rain was very small. Different locals have said both that it barely drizzled vs. raining a lot. There's been a drought (I think everyone at least agrees on that) so the ground could still be pretty dry with light rain.

 

[nikb]

Does anyone happen to have a link to the CCTV video where it actually showed the timestamp? I've got links I saved but none of them work anymore. I am starting to doubt my sanity. and wanted to look again to make sure that I really did see 12:11. Thanks!

 

[otto]

Didn't the same article state that a hurried pace is more like 15 miles ph?

From that tiny snippet of cctv, I believe they were hurrying.

:cow:

The article was a study regarding whether people accurately estimate their speed. It seems that children are more likely to accurately estimate their speed, whereas adults over-estimate their speed by 1 mph.

 

[hambirg]

Reposting for clarity -

Please understand I am not snarking at you, I had absolutely considered the abduction taking place away from the lake...it still may have...but this would mean specifically discounting Mr G's sighting.

I get strong indications that this witness is very solid. It appears I am alone in this on this forum. I do not believe for one second he "confabulated" the sighting, made it up, embroidered it, got his times or days wrong.

I do not believe it was a stranger abduction, at all. Never have. I believe the girls knew their abductor.

Add in Mr G, Mr C and Mr P, also Mr C's wife, and Mr G's daughter, and there are just too many (in my mind) CREDIBLE witnesses to the girls being at (or at least very nearby) that lake.

The dogs tracking their scent into the wooded area tends to confirm this.

All opinion only.


I actually said AT or NEARBY that lake....not definitely AT THE LAKE.

Credible witnesses being - Mr Gamerdinger who saw the bikes, his daughter who confirms the timing as he spoke to her on the phone at the time, Mr Carpenter who lives in Lake Ave (very nearby) who saw the girls go past, his wife who confirms he saw the girls go past, Mr P who has stated he cannot see how they got "that far in 8 minutes" thereby implying (to me at least) that LE have suggested they did indeed go that far in 8 minutes.

I can post links to all of the above if required but this is common knowledge.

My point is that these CREDIBLE individuals all had something to say regarding the girls, the bikes, and the timing.

My point was ALSO MY OPINION ONLY.

But if LE confirmed that the girls went to the lake in 8 mins, that puts them arriving at 12:27.

 

[Jules71]

Looking back at first thread...

Early morning the 14th it was reported they were last seen around 12:30:
http://www.radioiowa.com/2012/07/14/two-evansdale-girls-missing-since-early-friday-afternoon/

KWWL also reported late afternoon of the 14th they were last seen by their grandmother around 12:15.

Then at 5:45 pm the wfcourier says they were last seen at 12:15 behind Lederman's.

So Grandma did say they were last seen at 12:15 before the cctv came out. I had previously wondered if the cctv jogged her memory of the time - but it looks like she determined that time first.

I just don't get her getting worried 15 minutes after she saw them if they really did leave at 11:30 to ride bikes. They would have been gone for 45 minutes unseen already. Then she sees them at 12:15 and at 12:30 she is looking for them in her car. WHY? Did she see something out the window after they rode by that concerned her?

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

 

[SapphireSteel]

The article was a study regarding whether people accurately estimate their speed. It seems that children are more likely to accurately estimate their speed, whereas adults over-estimate their speed by 1 mph.

So is the "hurried" pace more like 15 mph?

Do you have a link for this article?

TIA

 

[SapphireSteel]

Looking back at first thread...

Early morning the 14th it was reported they were last seen around 12:30:
http://www.radioiowa.com/2012/07/14/two-evansdale-girls-missing-since-early-friday-afternoon/

KWWL also reported late afternoon of the 14th they were last seen by their grandmother around 12:15.

Then at 5:45 pm the wfcourier says they were last seen at 12:15 behind Lederman's.

So Grandma did say they were last seen at 12:15 before the cctv came out. I had previously wondered if the cctv jogged her memory of the time - but it looks like she determined that time first.

I just don't get her getting worried 15 minutes after she saw them if they really did leave at 11:30 to ride bikes. They would have been gone for 45 minutes unseen already. Then she sees them at 12:15 and at 12:30 she is looking for them in her car. WHY? Did she see something out the window after they rode by that concerned her?

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

She reluctantly let them go for a "short" ride at around 11.30, as they had plans and had to be home.

I read into this that they were expected home around 12.00 or 12.15 at the latest...indeed, they were caught on cctv at this time, just across the road from home.

Granma got annoyed and worried shortly after 12.15, but you're right, she said she SAW them at this time...so why not just call them in then?

:dunno:

 

[MNDad]

8 minutes...this case should be called the "case of the 8 minutes".

It also is the amount of time Mr P states his cctv was BEHIND his cell...which makes the cctv time stamp 12.11...add 8 minutes you have 12.20 (close enough).

I have long ago given up on trying to analyse time differences and decided that if Mr P thinks there is an 8 minute time frame for the girls to get to the lake, then thats what it is.

He did spend a day and a half with the FBI after all, and by all accounts is not a stupid man liable to "confabulation" or imagination.

:moo:

The FBI were at his business but would they real have him pull up a chair and give him a junior Elliot Ness badge? I doubt that he was privy to anything and probably wasn't even part of any conversations or even allowed to eves drop.

 

[hambirg]

The same cyclist who Abben claimed not to have heard of when asked, more than once?
Isn't interesting that he downplayed the witness into oblivion, but yet, we are presupposing that the FBI is working on a timeline that uses his sighting as a core component?
We all jumped to the conclusion that the TG sighting was the "other end" of the "eight minutes", but do we really know that?

Just jumping off your post Otto, not trying to disagree, just pondering....

That's called an investigation.

 

[Confusion]

Didn't the same article state that a hurried pace is more like 15 miles ph?

From that tiny snippet of cctv, I believe they were hurrying.

:cow:

I don't know if it means much, but my son had me "clock" him with my car once when he was 10. He kept up with me as long as I didn't go over 20 mph, but I made him turn around and go home after just a few of blocks. For the record, he was on a BMX, the street was level (no hills to speed him up or slow him down.), and after those few blocks he was pretty close to being wiped out. I think he could have gone a bit farther at that speed, and quite a lot farther at maybe 15 mph but I really think a lot depends on the kid, the bike and the roads.

 

[SapphireSteel]

The FBI were at his business but would they real have him pull up a chair and give him a junior Elliot Ness badge? I doubt that he was privy to anything and probably wasn't even part of any conversations or even allowed to eves drop.

So where did his statement come from then?

“It’s pretty hard for girls to get a mile and a half away ... in eight minutes,”

He is not talking about clocks here. He is talking about travel times.

:cow:

 

[nikb]

Finally found one of the many things I've been looking for:

http://m.wcfcourier.com/news/evansd...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

A few snippets, with my thoughts next to them in bold.

Pahl is the manager of Cornbelt Auctions, 3520 Lafayette Road, where a 24-hour camera captured the footage from its position behind the building. The time and date stamp — 12:11 p.m. July 13 — fits the police timeline of the case. Ah ha, the 12:11 time stamp. I thought I saw it on one of the released videos as well and can't find it, but was glad to find it in MSM.

However, Pahl said the camera’s clock is eight minutes slower than his U.S. Cellular phone. Here we go... the 8 minutes slower.

Pahl said FBI officials arrived within 20 minutes of learning about the video and “sat up here all Monday until about noon on Tuesday watching everything we had.”

“I think they marked every single car that went by,” he said. “I know they downloaded a ton of stuff off of this.” My thinking is it took a day and a half to watch the video and make note of activity on it, which makes complete sense to me. Not a day and a half questioning Mr. Pahl. IMO and unless I read this wrong. ​

 

[Sunlight]

So where did his statement come from then?

“It’s pretty hard for girls to get a mile and a half away ... in eight minutes,”

He is not talking about clocks here. He is talking about travel times.

:cow:

Exactly. So why should the travel time matter at all??? Why couldn't it be 15 minutes...like they were dinking around...what difference does it make what the estimated travel time is?

 

[TeenyTaurus]

"Pahl is the manager of Cornbelt Auctions, 3520 Lafayette Road, where a 24-hour camera captured the footage from its position behind the building. The time and date stamp — 12:11 p.m. July 13 — fits the police timeline of the case.

However, Pahl said the camera’s clock is eight minutes slower than his U.S. Cellular phone."

http://www.kcrg.com/evansdaledisapp...-Sighting-of-Missing-Girls-163897346.html?m=y

yep, I looked everywhere... paraphrased, not a direct quote.

 

[roseofsharon]

So where did his statement come from then?

“It’s pretty hard for girls to get a mile and a half away ... in eight minutes,”

He is not talking about clocks here. He is talking about travel times.

:cow:

I thought I saw Mr. P make this statement behind Cornbelt Auctions, during an interview with media?? imo

 

[MNDad]

So where did his statement come from then?

“It’s pretty hard for girls to get a mile and a half away ... in eight minutes,”

He is not talking about clocks here. He is talking about travel times.

:cow:

I agree with your question, but perhaps not your take away. I actually don't have the answer to that except perhaps he was doing his own math and he misunderstood what he had read about TG's sighting. If he adjusted the time based on his phone clock to the 12:19 and he thought TG's sighting was 12:27, it could be his own calculation and have nothing to do with anything the FBI said

 

[Confusion]

I just don't get her getting worried 15 minutes after she saw them if they really did leave at 11:30 to ride bikes. They would have been gone for 45 minutes unseen already. Then she sees them at 12:15 and at 12:30 she is looking for them in her car. WHY? Did she see something out the window after they rode by that concerned her?

SBM

I thought it was because DC got home about 12:30, so she could leave then. She said she could normally call for the girls and have them show up right away because they were within a couple of blocks. If she called for them and they didn't come, I think she probably went looking for them more out of anger than out of worry. She didn't sound very worriied until DC called her to come back later. MOO

 

[SapphireSteel]

I believe the 8 minutes is getting mixed up here.

There are two Mr P talks about, not one.

The first 8 minutes is the difference in clocks.

The second 8 minutes is the TRAVEL TIME between the auction house and the lake.

Like I said earlier, this should be renamed "The Case of the 8 Minutes'.

It's just coincidence...if he'd said the clock was 9 minutes out, or 5 minutes out, we wouldn't be so confused...

My opinion only of course.

:moo:

 

[nikb]

That would be the same cyclist. I don't think the FBI is working on an 8 minute timeline. The auction shop employee voiced an opinion about whether he could ride to the lake in 8 minutes ... he didn't think that he could.

Since I just finally found one of the articles I was looking for:
http://m.wcfcourier.com/news/evansd...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

“It’s pretty hard for girls to get a mile and a half away ... in eight minutes,” Pahl said. “I don’t even think I could ride a bike a mile in eight minutes.”

Two points - first I'm a very slow bike rider and I was scratching my head about someone saying they couldn't ride a mile in 8 minutes. I usually surprise myself with how far I get in a short time span. This is absolutely nothing against the guy, I just wonder when the last time he rode a bike was - specifically riding and having a way to track the distance.

Second thought is I noticed he didn't mention the lake, just a distance. I assume there's got to be some reason he came up with a mile and a half, and the lake is the likely option, but he didn't come out and say "the lake." (at least here, who knows what was reported elsewhere)