IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #17

[Sunlight]

Downstairs is unmanned if anyone wants to takeover.

 

[Snufamonbobball]

Well, I don't think that I'm going to be the one to solve this terrible crime, but one thing I can do is spread their story and faces. I sell on ebay and I put their NCMEC poster on all my listings.

I only wish there was more I could do.

 

[iamnotagolem]

Someone asked upthread why stage the bikes, I've gone back and forth on this, had several opinions on it.

What if, the perp kidnapped, killed the girls and took them and their bikes to the lake to dump them, they get the bikes to the lake but were interrupted by the family searching for them and couldn't dump the girls in the lake. Maybe they were trying to make it look like the girls drown. In fact, that may be the cause of death, maybe he drown them and was hoping they'd be in the lake a while before they were discovered to cover some of the evidence. Then once he was interrupted from the body dump he left and had to figure something else out?

 

[SapphireSteel]

I think we can assume the cctv is of the girls as LE have come out and said so.

One of the few things they have confirmed...

:cow:

 

[nikb]

I think we can assume the cctv is of the girls as LE have come out and said so.

One of the few things they have confirmed...

Yes I agree, I've been working with that assumption as well. It's just so hard to imagine someone making a definitive ID based on that video, IMO.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Yes I agree, I've been working with that assumption as well. It's just so hard to imagine someone making a definitive ID based on that video, IMO.

Not to me.

They were the only cyclists caught on the cctv that day.

Also, the FBI have ways to refine the images, and measure the height/weight etc.

I would find it far more difficult to believe it was NOT the girls, personally.

:cow:

 

[otto]

Yes I agree, I've been working with that assumption as well. It's just so hard to imagine someone making a definitive ID based on that video, IMO.

The video was analyzed on Monday, July 16/17. The information was released to the public on July 25.

If you see someone you know from a distance, it's sometimes the way they walk, or how they carry themselves, that first tells you that you know that person. I think that the grandmother and the parents would have been able to recognize Elizabeth and Lyric because of the way they carried themse.lves ... even on bikes in a blurry video.

 

[GateKeeper]

Well, I don't think that I'm going to be the one to solve this terrible crime, but one thing I can do is spread their story and faces. I sell on ebay and I put their NCMEC poster on all my listings.

I only wish there was more I could do.

WOW!! What a groovy Idea!!!

 

[otto]

Not to me.

They were the only cyclists caught on the cctv that day.

Also, the FBI have ways to refine the images, and measure the height/weight etc.

I would find it far more difficult to believe it was NOT the girls, personally.

:cow:

Good point ... they could estimate the height of the bikes & children through comparison to surrounding objects. In fact, they could also compare Elizabeth and Lyric's cycling speed to the average of 9 mph for children under the age of 13.

I don't think that we've heard that police were actively measuring anything behind the Auction Shop, so maybe the family simply recognized the way they rode the BMX & mountain bikes. I wonder if police have examined the rear of the Auction Shop and surrounding parking lots as carefully as they should. If not, it's not too late ... maybe it deserves a careful look. Maybe they'v'e excluded the possibility that the girls were abducted in the parking lot ... maybe they overlooked it because of the location of the bikes.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Good point ... they could estimate the height of the bikes & children through comparison to surrounding objects. In fact, they could also compare Elizabeth and Lyric's cycling speed to the average of 9 mph for children under the age of 13.

I don't think that we've heard that police were actively measuring anything behind the Auction Shop, so maybe the family simply recognized the way they rode the BMX & mountain bikes. I wonder if police have examined the rear of the Auction Shop and surrounding parking lots as carefully as they should. If not, it's not too late ... maybe it deserves a careful look. Maybe they'v'e excluded the possibility that the girls were abducted in the parking lot ... maybe they overlooked it because of the location of the bikes.

Don't forget they had the dogs all over town.

It would be a total waste of time and resources to examine an area where there was no scent found.

:moo:

 

[MotherOcean]

I'm now questioning whether or not the girls were ever on Lake Avenue. Mr. C's house faces Gilbert. He said that they would "ride their bikes right by our house... but they'd come down, turn around, and go back up the street."

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...-missing-Iowa-girls-after-their-disappearance

And, I found this post on thread #2:

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #2

Last night, they did pick up on a scent near a dock on the lake, so that area was the focus of attention for much of last night.
by Aaron Hepker - KCRG 2:33

LE removed the docks.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html

City crews, who started draining the lake on Monday, removed docks on Tuesday, carrying them past brick retaining walls topped with the remains of candles, teddy bears and roses from earlier vigils.


The girls could have ridden past Mr. C's house on Gilbert Drive, continued riding three blocks to the west to reach Elmer Avenue, turned there and entered the lake area from the parking area. I've been convinced that they came down Lake Avenue and took their bikes through the grassy area to reach the trail. If they arrived at the lake at the parking area, rather than near where their bikes were found, then that opens up a lot more possibilities in my mind. Someone could have seen them at the lake near or on the docks (perp. already parked there in the parking lot when they arrived or he/they could have followed them there - perhaps followed them from the skateboard park area) and then driven their vehicle to the wooded area at Arbutus, parked in the grassy area or Maiden Lane, and been waiting for them when they arrived near the jetty. If there are multiple perps. one or two could have followed them on foot/walked with them around the trail to the southeast corner and stayed there with them or nearby them while another perp. drove the vehicle around to Arbutus.

I have always thought that a vehicle never parked there near the wooded area but that one perp. drove up just as another perp. (or two) lead the girls to the vehicle. I couldn't quite make it work out right in my mind before but if the girls entered the lake area from the parking lot area (close to where the docks were), and then rode down to the area near the gate/jetty, then I can see it.

I think the girls could have been riding past Mr. C's house because they were riding past the skateboard park. It's at the corner of Evansdale Nature Trail and Gilbert. They were either turning around at the skateboard park, or turning around on Gilbert near Mr. C's house and going back east towards it.

 

[otto]

Don't forget they had the dogs all over town.

It would be a total waste of time to examine an area where there was no scent found.

:moo:

There would have been a scent, but police would have had to use tracking dogs right away ... I think I read that car exhaust can interfere with scent tracking (we have a tracking dog expert posting ... G-Drui???). If I recall correctly, dogs track from oldest to most recent. Tracking from the camera location may have answered some questions. I wonder if it could still be done - suppose it depends on the dog.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Here's what gramma said

And then another thing I want to say is down by the lake, going, not the bike path, somebody could have snatched them along the road. If there was two people in a van, they could have thrown those kids in their van with their bikes and there`s another way to drive by the houses and get to the end of that trail and they could have chunked the bikes down there with the children.

Here's what Misty clarified -

What she`s saying is at the end of the U that you were shown, the trail comes around here, the bikes were found here, You come to that end of it, this bridge is out into a wooded area and right here is a big patch of grass where you can pull your vehicles up on to and that`s where we parked our vehicles to get back on the trail and go back this way.

So that`s what she`s saying, that someone could have very well come into that grassy area on the south side of the trail that ends as far as being able to walk or ride a bike.


http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/17/ng.01.html

 

[SapphireSteel]

There would have been a scent, but police would have had to use tracking dogs right away ... I think I read that car exhaust can interfere with scent tracking (we have a tracking dog expert posting ... G-Drui???). If I recall correctly, dogs track from oldest to most recent. Tracking from the camera location may have answered some questions. I wonder if it could still be done - suppose it depends on the dog.

Indeed it could, I believe scent can be picked up months or even years later in the right conditions.

I actually think LE thought of this, they just haven't told us the results.

:websleuther:

 

[GrainneDhu]

Very cool info, thank you so much! This makes our evening strolls even that much more fun! There are so many places to hide out there, also it makes the walks more fun for the dog as well - he was all excited when he found him

Thank you!!

I know this is off topic for the thread but I just wanted to say that most dogs adore scent work.

A good scent dog, no matter if they are trained in SAR or trailing or HRD loooooves what they do and they are never happier than when they make a find. Dogs that find the work stressful get washed out in training, not because they lack the ability to do the job but because handlers have learned that such dogs burn out very quickly.

That is one reason why handlers prefer that the family not witness any of the search with dogs. No one wants the family of a dead victim to witness the handler jumping up and down with their dog out of the dog's joy at making a find. That is what is necessary to the training and emotional well being of the dog but the family doesn't need to see it.

 

[otto]

Here's what gramma said

And then another thing I want to say is down by the lake, going, not the bike path, somebody could have snatched them along the road. If there was two people in a van, they could have thrown those kids in their van with their bikes and there`s another way to drive by the houses and get to the end of that trail and they could have chunked the bikes down there with the children.

Here's what Misty clarified -

What she`s saying is at the end of the U that you were shown, the trail comes around here, the bikes were found here, You come to that end of it, this bridge is out into a wooded area and right here is a big patch of grass where you can pull your vehicles up on to and that`s where we parked our vehicles to get back on the trail and go back this way.

So that`s what she`s saying, that someone could have very well come into that grassy area on the south side of the trail that ends as far as being able to walk or ride a bike.


http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/17/ng.01.html

Shouldn't that read: "this bridges out into a wooded area"?

Yes, I think she's saying that someone could have driven off Arbutus on the East side of the wooded area, where there is a big patch of grass (staying close to the wooded area), parked near the fence - where the double fence ends, and gone around the back of the fence to toss the bikes on the path ... perhaps East of the gate, but part of the way down the path.

When I first tried to envision the possible scenarios, I thought the bikes and purse were further East - in part because of the photos of the cyclist talking with police (at the blind curve).

The only reason we assumed that the purse was on the shore near the drainage pipe is because Lyric's father said that they bikes were right at the gate. What if he was thinking in more general terms and by "right near the gate", he meant at that part of the long trail. What I mean is, did he mean "in the double fenced area" and used the gate as a reference? I'm not explaining this very well ...

 

[MotherOcean]

Shouldn't that read: "this bridges out into a wooded area"?

Yes, it should.

 

[GrainneDhu]

How much time would it take to secure two victims in a van, load two bikes, drive to the lake and unload the bikes?

I'm guessing that the first part of securing the two victims and loading the bikes would take less than 2 minutes.

The perp isn't going to carefully seatbelt them in. The easiest way to secure the girls would be zipties around the ankles and wrists.

Then load the bicycles into the van, possibly on top of the girls and go.

I think it would take longer to get across town with a vehicle than on bicycle because a perp driving a van wouldn't want to attract attention with reckless driving.

 

[Snowbunny]

All the away home from work tonight I've had these little girls on my mind. I haven't really been following this case until the past day or two and it just haunts me. It wasn't until last night that I looked up on a map that I realized just close to home this case was. This kind of stuff doesn't happen around here. I never realized that Evansdale was only a couple of hours from where I live. One thought that came to mind tonight on my way home from work is that there have been a lot of bikers coming from all directions all over the country to the bike rally which is held in Sturgis, SD. For those that are not familiar with the rally they come in the hundreds of thousands. This is not a small affair. Some will even start as early as the first part of July to head this way. Some will drive their bikes and others will haul them. Just food for thought!

 

[GrainneDhu]

FBI spokeswoman Sandy Breault said the reaction from the dogs Monday night indicated a "strong possibility" the girls had been at the lake, less than a mile from their grandmother's house where they were last reported seen Friday. However, Breault said because there were no confirmed sightings at the lake, authorities couldn't be certain.


RBBM...

That is an odd way of saying it.... :waitasec:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/07/17/fbi-dogs-join-search-for-missing-iowa-girls/

Dogs can make mistakes just as humans can. Dog handlers can make mistakes because they are human.

I think it is more likely than not that the girls were at the lake that day but without some sort of confirmed witness testimony, I cannot be 100% sure.

By confirmed I mean someone LE confirms as reliable testimony. I am sure that LE is keeping several details secret as a way to sort out tips. I imagine if an eyewitness included those secret details, it would be a confirmed sighting.

Which says to me that none of the eyewitness testimony so far is confirmed.