IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #18

[CHERIE.T]

<BBM>

How could it be a waste of time to check if the girls had drowned? Two bikes and a purse were found next to the shore. Even though the lake was leech infested and not a swimming lake, the facts that the bikes and purse were found there means that they could have disappeared into the water. That possibility absolutely had to be ruled out.

At the same time, land searches were done by volunteers, and investigators were trying to wrap their heads around the various possibilities. One by one, options were eliminated until the only possible explanation for the disappearance was abduction. If police had immediately assumed that it was an abduction, people would be complaining that they hadn't properly excluded the possibility of a drowning.

Children do "go poof" at lakes all the time ... they drown. The fact that the bikes and purse were at the lake when they were abducted suggests that the perp had a huge, potentially premeditated, advantage at the start. Everything was perfectly staged to suggest a drowning. How can investigators be criticized for investigating every possible angle, including the obvious: drowning?

<modsnip>
Kids do not just go poof. These girls did NOT drown which is why I made that comment.
<modsnip>

 

[Elley Mae]

This is july 16

http://abcnews.go.com/US/missing-iowa-cousins-cops-begin-draining-lake-search/story?id=16784357

Heather Collins said the family has strict rules with Elizabeth about how far she is allowed to go and how often she has to check in.

"If she goes more than one block, she tells us and she calls us when she gets there and she calls us when she comes home," Collins said. "This is not like her normal thing."

Heather Collins reported the girls missing about three hours after they left to ride their bikes.

bbm

 

[otto]

I know this wasn't directed at me, but my opinion only...

The girls were last seen at 12:15, I personally think they were abducted within about 5 minutes of that sighting and were probably killed between 1-1:30.

The police were notified between 2-3, IIRC and the bikes were located at 3:58.

My only basis for my theory is opinion and instincts. It's just what I think, I do not have any information outside of MSM.

The timeline you suggest of last sighting at 12:15, and abduction 5 minutes later, requires that they were abducted at the parking lot. If they were abducted at 12:20, then the bikes the were staged. Why would anyone go to the trouble of abducting two young girls, and staging their bikes, only to murder them within an hour ... and then make their bodies completely vanish? That's an awful lot of trouble to go to without a reason.

 

[otto]

<modsnip>
Kids do not just go poof. These girls did NOT drown which is why I made that comment.
<modsnip>.

I'm asking why it would be considered to be a waste of time to search a lake when the bikes and belongings of two children were found beside a lake? Please don't take this personally ... it's simply a question. How could anyone rule out the possibility of a drowning without looking in the lake?

 

[Darcyline]

From all reports I have heard they were actively and aggressively pursuing other possibilities while draining the lake so I don't really think it was a waste. It wasn't like the entire police force was sitting and watching it drain. They were searching houses, interviewing people, giving polygraphs, calling in outside help, and tracking down RSOs while doing it.
There may have been mistakes made in this case, but to me draining the lake isn't one of them. Of course, just my opinion

Frustrated that the girls still aren't home.

 

[iamnotagolem]

The timeline you suggest of last sighting at 12:15, and abduction 5 minutes later, requires that they were abducted at the parking lot. If they were abducted at 12:20, then the bikes the were staged. Why would anyone go to the trouble of abducting two young girls, and staging their bikes, only to murder them within an hour ... and then make their bodies completely vanish? That's an awful lot of trouble to go to without a reason.

Kidnapping two girls and wanting to get away with it seems like a good reason to me.

Like I said it's just my opinion. Staging the bikes (or simply dumping them) at the lake throws off the investigation and suggests drowning, whether that was the intention or not, it did happen.

 

[otto]

From all reports I have heard they were actively and aggressively pursuing other possibilities while draining the lake so I don't really think it was a waste. It wasn't like the entire police force was sitting and watching it drain. They were searching houses, interviewing people, giving polygraphs, calling in outside help, and tracking down RSOs while doing it.
There may have been mistakes made in this case, but to me draining the lake isn't one of them. Of course, just my opinion

Frustrated that the girls still aren't home.

Two points where I can see some mistakes are:

1. missing person's website information has included incorrect information, and
2. the area around the bikes was not contained, or protected, until the following day.

Some of the information on the missing person's website has been corrected, but conflicting information remains. Little can be done to change the fact that the area was not immediately contained. I'm guessing that police initially assumed that the girls were in the nearby area and that they would turn up in no time. Little did they know that they had been abducted, possibly behind the Auction Shop.

 

[otto]

Kidnapping two girls and wanting to get away with it seems like a good reason to me.

Like I said it's just my opinion. Staging the bikes (or simply dumping them) at the lake throws off the investigation and suggests drowning, whether that was the intention or not, it did happen.

If the theory is that they were abducted at 12:20 and dead within the hour - while at the same time moving bikes, transporting children and disappearing ... there's not much time to do anything other than commit murder. That seems like an awful lot of trouble to go through if someone simply wants to murder two children ... furthermore, why would anyone want to murder two little girls?

 

[iamnotagolem]

If the theory is that they were abducted at 12:20 and dead within the hour - while at the same time moving bikes, transporting children and disappearing ... there's not much time to do anything other than commit murder. That seems like an awful lot of trouble to go through if someone simply wants to murder two children ... furthermore, why would anyone want to murder two little girls?

Hypothetical..... Grabbed the girls and bikes at 12:20. 12-20-1:00 do what they want with girls/kill them (say in the back of a van since that seems to be a popular method). 1:00-1:03 drop bikes at lake. 1:04-? Dispose if girls bodies.

I think it is possible that he just subdued the girls in the back of the van (taser, rope, tape) disposed of bikes and then did whatever with the girls, and it is just as likely, I just personally don't think that is what happened. Again, just my opinion.

 

[otto]

I just discovered that what I've been referring to as Lotty's Lounge, in the parking lot between Brovan and Lafayette, is actually Lofty's Lounge. So ... maybe I need new glasses ... and maybe I should quit hallucinating.

No wonder I couldn't find any info on Lotty's Lounge ... it doesn't exist!

It has a facebook page.

 

[nikb]

Gotta ask at this point, what's the members theories? Do you think the girls are alive or dead?

I think they are alive, but it might just be blind hope at this point.

 

[iamnotagolem]

I think they are alive, but it might just be blind hope at this point.

As much as I disagree, I like hearing these theories, because it's much better if they are alive.

What is your theory? Why were the girls taken, where are they?

ETA: I would love to be wrong!

 

[brighidin]

Lyric lived with her grandmother at the time of the abduction. I don't recall that she ever lived at the Collin's home. Elizabeth was almost 9 years of age when abducted, Lyric was 10.

She did, and for quite some time. This is all available in the earlier threads. I know how old they are; that is why I said Lyric wasn't that much older.

 

[SapphireSteel]

You can read the entire CARP (Child Abduction Response Plan - a best practice guide by the FBI) at the link, it is compelling (exhausting) reading.

The manpower required to properly handle a child abduction is mind boggling and no amount of training could prepare or equip a small sherrifs department to do the job of 50 people when there's only 5 on staff.

When two kids go missing at or near a lake, it is part of the CARP to search that lake. To not do so is completely against procedure as well as common sense (the perp may also know this and used lake staging to slow down the investigation). Local LE did everything right as far as I can see, especially locking down the neighbourhood, going through with dogs, and properly identifying witnesses.

From CARP

The purpose of the initial response is to gather sufficient information to determine what occurred. The accuracy of this determination or assessment is crucial, in that an actual abduction requires a prompt and detailed investigation. During this investigation nothing should be assumed and everything should be verified. Far too often crucial details are overlooked because one investigator thought someone else had taken care of a particular aspect, or a witness’s account of the incident need not be verified because the witness “seemed credible.” A rapid and thorough investigation may also develop additional information that will indicate that the matter is not an abduction. It may be a pretense to cover up the homicide or domestic problems of the reported missing victim, or the child maybe lost or injured or may have run away.At this point the investigation can “stand down” and investigators can take the appropriate action to resolve that matter. It is much easier to redirect the investigation and resources at that point than to make up lost ground and recover overlooked or damaged evidence and/or lost clues because of a failure to initially use all available personnel and resources. A proper assessment should direct the investigation appropriately from the onset.

BBM - I think a proper investigation is what we've seen from the beginning, and what may be perceived as lack of police response is actually them taking "the appropriate action to resolve the matter".

CARP makes it clear that identifying likely motive and investigating in that direction is the focus from day one. It also makes it clear that random abduction is statistically the least likely scenario, and family involvement/coverup the most likely.

In my opinion, the investigation is going in one direction, which is why there have been no BOLO's or community warnings, and an apparent wind down.

I think Evansdale LE deserve a big gold star for the professional way they have handled this from the beginning. It is a massive job.

:star:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/51536616/FBI-Child-Abduction-Response-Plan

 

[nikb]

As much as I disagree, I like hearing these theories, because it's much better if they are alive.

What is your theory? Why were the girls taken, where are they?

ETA: I would love to be wrong!

Thanks for asking. After posting that I finished catching up on the thread and was thinking more. I realized my head thinks they're probably not alive, but my heart really wants them to be and I keep trying to "override" the logical possibilities. If that makes any sense.

I don't have a specific theory in mind. A number of possibilities, but no specific theory. When you asked those questions, where and why? I can't think of a good answer that also leads to them being alive.

If I were to re-answer the question I'd have to say no, I don't think they are alive. I desparately want them to be, though (as I know we all do).

 

[Considering]

Someone mentioned awhile back about the time it would take to secure the girls. I don't think it would take much time at all. After getting them into a vehicle, they would already be scared. It wouldn't take much time at all to put a girls' hands behind her back and secure them with a plastic security zip tie. Do the same with her feet, slap a piece of duct tape over her mouth, do the same to the next girl and he's finished.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Someone mentioned awhile back about the time it would take to secure the girls. I don't think it would take much time at all. After getting them into a vehicle, they would already be scared. It wouldn't take much time at all to put a girls' hands behind her back and secure them with a plastic security zip tie. Do the same with her feet, slap a piece of duct tape over her mouth, do the same to the next girl and he's finished.

For me, the issue is the KISS principle.

I am a firm believer that most creepers will go for the easiest, least risky way to get a child.

Standing about in view of lots of people for extended periods of time on the off chance what you're looking for will come by? You could be there all day and not see one. This is not a big town.

Then when TWO happen by, you somehow manage to physically get them off their bikes and tied up one by one? One little girl may be stunned with fear, but you can only HOPE for that reaction. What is more likely to happen is she starts screaming and pedalling faster, thereby increasing the chances of you being caught.

I just can't see this scenario being LIKELY.

Creepers operate in car parks, or by breaking in at night and stealing a child, or driving by one on a road and snatching it in and driving away.

They like quick, sudden, and unseen.

They don't tend to plan involved abductions requiring hanging around public places with car boots open, hoping a child that suits them will come along, then securing the child with zip ties and duct tape at the scene. They grab and go.

Kids are easy prey. This level of planning and risk is excessive and does not fit the profile of a random sexually motivated abduction.

:cow:

 

[Considering]

For me, the issue is the KISS principle.

I am a firm believer that most creepers will go for the easiest, least risky way to get a child.

Standing about in view of lots of people for extended periods of time on the off chance what you're looking for will come by? You could be there all day and not see one. This is not a big town.

Then when TWO happen by, you somehow manage to physically get them off their bikes and tied up one by one? One little girl may be stunned with fear, but you can only HOPE for that reaction. What is more likely to happen is she starts screaming and pedalling faster, thereby increasing the chances of you being caught.

I just can't see this scenario being LIKELY.

Creepers operate in car parks, or by breaking in at night and stealing a child, or driving by one on a road and snatching it in and driving away.

They like quick, sudden, and unseen.

They don't tend to plan involved abductions requiring hanging around public places with car boots open, hoping a child that suits them will come along, then securing the child with zip ties and duct tape at the scene. They grab and go.

Kids are easy prey. This level of planning and risk is excessive and does not fit the profile of a random sexually motivated abduction.

:cow:

:waitasec:

I didn't say anyone was standing about in view of lots of people looking for who will come by. I didn't discuss anything about how anyone got off of a bicycle. I didn't say anyone planned an abduction that required hanging around a public place with a trunk open while hoping that a child that suited him/her came along. I didn't say anyone was secured at the scene.

What I said was:

-after getting two children into a vehicle they would be scared.

-it would not take much time to secure a girl by securing her hands behind her back with a plastic security zip tie, securing her feet the same way, and putting duct tape over her mouth.

 

[SapphireSteel]

:waitasec:

I didn't say anyone was standing about in view of lots of people looking for who will come by. I didn't discuss anything about how anyone got off of a bicycle. I didn't say anyone planned an abduction that required hanging around a public place with a trunk open while hoping that a child that suited him/her came along. I didn't say anyone was secured at the scene.

What I said was:

-after getting two children into a vehicle they would be scared.

-it would not take much time to secure a girl by securing her hands behind her back with a plastic security zip tie, securing her feet the same way, and putting duct tape over her mouth.

Sorry I wasn't snarking...just extrapolating the theory.

:truce:

No it wouldn't take long to do it. In fact there is a famous case in Australia, Daniel Morcombe, where it literally took 2 minutes for him to disappear.

Mind you, someone was seen standing by a car near him...who later turned out to be his abductor.



Again, KISS came into effect...a random perp saw a boy standing alone at a bus stop on a busy highway, on impulse grabbed him. No tying up involved, I think he just picked him up, dumped him in his car and drove away.

Horrific.

 

[Tucarra]

I'm asking why it would be considered to be a waste of time to search a lake when the bikes and belongings of two children were found beside a lake? Please don't take this personally ... it's simply a question. How could anyone rule out the possibility of a drowning without looking in the lake?

In any and all circumstances, it would have been inexcusable to not search and empty the pond....an absolutely minimal expenditure of resources...

And could one even half-way imagine the second guessing and possible regret by ALL concerned, family and LE included, if this had not been done...?