IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #19

[GrainneDhu]

A prosecutor emailed this link to me after attending an FBI criminal profiling seminar ...

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/11/12/071112fa_fact_gladwell

Thanks for the link!

I had read before that Brussel (the Mad Bomber psychiatrist/profiler) had not been anywhere near as accurate as he portrayed in his memoir.

I have a theory that many psychics (and profilers) are sincere in their belief that they are giving information via supernatural powers or via psychologically sound principles and they unconsciously train themselves in how to do cold readings successfully.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Earlier I posted a link to an article about a 13 year old girl who met a 12 year old boy via X-Box. Here is an update to that article:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oy-met-online-fear-lured-sexual-predator.html

"Now the 13-year-old is devastated that ‘Dylan’ could have been lying to her the whole time.

‘Dylan’ told her that he would even walk to her home in Cypress to see her, said that she could stay at his home in Hodgenville and said that his grandmother was aware of her trip.

‘I'm starting to have my doubts. I'm really scared. I don't know what type of situation she would have found herself in,’ Tressa Robinson told ABC.

The mother thinks that Beth must have had help to come up with her elaborate escape plan, especially the idea to change the car’s licence plates."

It sounds like this "12 year old boy" may have been a pedophile who lured the young girl. Thanks goodness she was stopped before she met him alone somewhere.

I worry that something like that may have happened to Lyric and Elizabeth.

 

[dotr]

A prosecutor emailed this link to me after attending an FBI criminal profiling seminar ...

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/11/12/071112fa_fact_gladwell

Thanks for sharing that very interesting article!!

 

[otto]

Thanks for the link!

I had read before that Brussel (the Mad Bomber psychiatrist/profiler) had not been anywhere near as accurate as he portrayed in his memoir.

I have a theory that many psychics (and profilers) are sincere in their belief that they are giving information via supernatural powers or via psychologically sound principles and they unconsciously train themselves in how to do cold readings successfully.

Rambling thought ... I think of ESP as being in the same category as deja vu ... we absorb information without thinking about it. When we stop to think about it, we know we've already seen it, but it seems new at the same time. We make decisions by synthesizing information. When we synthesize information related to a crime, we may think that we arrived at a decision, or assumption, by osmosis, esp, deja vu, or chain of evidence. Investigators and profilers probably use something like that.

 

[otto]

Coffee cup match ... Kwik Star large coffee cup?

 

[Reverie]

I must have heard it wrong then and thank you for correcting me. Do we know where the two girls had been as to why they were late?

They had been at a park, iirc.

Anyone know which park it was?

 

[HeavenLeigh]

Another possible abduction attempt -- this one in Missouri

http://fox4kc.com/2012/09/07/child-predator-possibly-spotted-at-cameron-park/

CAMERON, Mo. — Police in Cameron are asking the public to be on alert for a possible child predator who may have been trying to lure children to his car Thursday evening.
The heavy-set, gray-haired older man was with a small boy, possibly four to five years old. The suspect appeared to use the boy to entice other children toward his car, police said. The boy referred to the man as “grandpa”.

I apologize if this was already posted (I'm several pages behind). The link has been updated....apparently the man (Grandpa) came forward. Said he believed reports on news were about him & his Grandson, said it was a "misunderstanding", case solved, looks like no charges will be filed. Go figure, seems hinky to me.

 

[otto]

Thanks for sharing that very interesting article!!

Double buttoned! There are 7 pages ... in case anyone missed that.

 

[otto]

They had been at a park, iirc.

Anyone know which park it was?

The were at a park in Waterloo - in the North, I think. The were there four days before Lyric and Elizabeth disappeared. When they were late returning home, the family went to the park and looked for them, but couldn't find them. Just as they were dialing the police to report them missing, they walked through the door.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Rambling thought ... I think of ESP as being in the same category as deja vu ... we absorb information without thinking about it. When we stop to think about it, we know we've already seen it, but it seems new at the same time. We make decisions by synthesizing information. When we synthesize information related to a crime, we may think that we arrived at a decision, or assumption, by osmosis, esp, deja vu, or chain of evidence. Investigators and profilers probably use something like that.

I often do that with dogs. I'll be doing a consult and something pops out of my mouth that surprises me. But when I think it through, all the links are there, it's just that my subconscious didn't bother with showing the work behind the answer.

I think something like that happened with Aunt TB and her "gut feeling" to search Meyer's Lake. I think she knew that there were a limited number of public places the girls could go in Evansdale and that the only place that could not be completely scanned by someone sitting in a car was Meyer's Lake. I think she put it all together and her subconscious gave her the answer without showing the math.

 

[otto]

This is interesting:

"Serial killers, they concluded, fall into one of two categories.

1. Organized: Some crime scenes show evidence of logic and planning. The victim has been hunted and selected, in order to fulfill a specific fantasy. The recruitment of the victim might involve a ruse or a con. The perpetrator maintains control throughout the offense. He takes his time with the victim, carefully enacting his fantasies. He is adaptable and mobile. He almost never leaves a weapon behind. He meticulously conceals the body. Douglas and Ressler, in their respective books, call that kind of crime “organized.”

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/11/12/071112fa_fact_gladwell#ixzz262gNkom2

 

[otto]

I often do that with dogs. I'll be doing a consult and something pops out of my mouth that surprises me. But when I think it through, all the links are there, it's just that my subconscious didn't bother with showing the work behind the answer.

I think something like that happened with Aunt TB and her "gut feeling" to search Meyer's Lake. I think she knew that there were a limited number of public places the girls could go in Evansdale and that the only place that could not be completely scanned by someone sitting in a car was Meyer's Lake. I think she put it all together and her subconscious gave her the answer without showing the math.

Exactly like that. Like knowing that 8x9 is 72 ... experience. I have a vague memory of Dan saying that Lyric had mentioned Meyers Lake, or asked about it, and she was told that it was not allowed. The aunt may have overheard the children talking, or a "gut feeling".

 

[CHERIE.T]

This is interesting:

"Serial killers, they concluded, fall into one of two categories.

1. Organized: Some crime scenes show evidence of logic and planning. The victim has been hunted and selected, in order to fulfill a specific fantasy. The recruitment of the victim might involve a ruse or a con. The perpetrator maintains control throughout the offense. He takes his time with the victim, carefully enacting his fantasies. He is adaptable and mobile. He almost never leaves a weapon behind. He meticulously conceals the body. Douglas and Ressler, in their respective books, call that kind of crime “organized.”

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/11/12/071112fa_fact_gladwell#ixzz262gNkom2

Reading that gave me chills because Imoo at least one of the missing girls was (using words from the article)watched, selected and conned.
I fear there is a real likelihood the girls will never be found.

Anyone care to tell me if a new search with scent dogs would be helpful.:moo:

 

[otto]

2. Disorganized Crime: the victim isn’t chosen logically. She’s seemingly picked at random and “blitz-attacked,” not stalked and coerced. The killer might grab a steak knife from the kitchen and leave the knife behind. The crime is so sloppily executed that the victim often has a chance to fight back. The crime might take place in a high-risk environment. “Moreover, the disorganized killer has no idea of, or interest in, the personalities of his victims,” Ressler writes in “Whoever Fights Monsters.” “He does not want to know who they are, and many times takes steps to obliterate their personalities by quickly knocking them unconscious or covering their faces or otherwise disfiguring them.”

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/11/12/071112fa_fact_gladwell#ixzz262jBqgMr

 

[otto]

Reading that gave me chills because Imoo at least one of the missing girls was (using words from the article)watched, selected and conned.
I fear there is a real likelihood the girls will never be found.

Anyone care to tell me if a new search with scent dogs would be helpful.:moo:

This seems like an organized crime. The positioning of the bikes suggests one of three possibilities:

1. the children were lured to that remote location, where they parked their bikes, left the purse on the ground, and were abducted,
2. the children rode to that location, even though it was not allowed and grandma was watching, and were forced off their bikes, or
3. the bikes and purse were staged at that location.

Option 1 and 3 seem organized. Option 2 seems unlikely. IMO, there's a low probability that a weirdo jumped out of the bushes to ambush two young girls on a path that is rarely used. It seems unlikely that it was a random, spontaneous attack, especially since it requires that the girls were taken some distance to a vehicle that was not hidden.

Besides, leaving the purse right next to the water ... that suggested that they went into the water. They didn't go into the water, but the positioning of the bikes and purse ... that seems organized.

 

[otto]

This story has nothing to do with the girls or the lake where they vanished. Its about what was thought to be an attempt to lure a young girl, but is now reported as a misunderstanding.

Perhaps the little boy recognized the little girl from school, or church, and said hello ... and the little girl was totally paranoid about being kidnapped. There seem to be an awful lot of reported attempted abductions in the area. My favorite was the man wearing the long gold coat with a hat and blue sunglasses.

 

[otto]

More from the same article:

"Crimes don’t fall into one camp or the other. It turns out that they’re almost always a mixture of a few key organized traits and a random array of disorganized traits."

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/11/12/071112fa_fact_gladwell#ixzz262ru9qY2

 

[Jax49]

Perhaps the little boy recognized the little girl from school, or church, and said hello ... and the little girl was totally paranoid about being kidnapped. There seem to be an awful lot of reported attempted abductions in the area. My favorite was the man wearing the long gold coat with a hat and blue sunglasses.

People are jumping at shadows--not that I blame them. If I was local and had children I'd be terrified. And, I can't even begin to imagine how the kids feel.

 

[Ollipop]

I am local, I have children. It IS scary, but we're careful not to allow our children to live in fear.

Today they played outside, in the yard, alone, while my wife and I were inside. Yes, we could hear their voices. Yes, we are very friendly and familiar with our neighbors, who were also outside.

Whereas before we'd never have given the situation a second thought, today we were constantly checking on them w/o letting them know we were (looking out windows, listening closely, etc). There are 6 children under 10 living on this block of my street, and 3 others who visit their relatives regularly. The parents ALL know each other, and ALL have our eyes peeled when we are outside.

Our kids are very aware that the girls are still missing, but I can't honestly say they (or we) are constantly fearful. I couldn't say that 7 weeks ago.

 

[otto]

People are jumping at shadows--not that I blame them. If I was local and had children I'd be terrified. And, I can't even begin to imagine how the kids feel.

The 6 points described someone that has a connection to Evansdale and who was in Evandale for that reason on July 13, 2012, but who may have suddenly changed plans. It may be someone that was in Evansdale that day who kept appointments, It may be someone that had business in town, or who was camping in the area. It is someone who is rather non-descript and could be the neighbor,

I would be afraid for my children too.