IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #20

[zoebella]

Hi everyone. I know us scanner peeps are supposed to keep the scanner in the scanner thread but is there anyone on here who can check the scanner feed on their end for me and report back in the scanner thread? I have two separate scanner tools I use and both are just these loud mechanical whirring sounds. I am not getting any real calls whatsoever.

I appreciate any help anyone can give me.

 

[superbee]

My feeling is this was planned by someone who knew at least one of the girls, maybe just on a casual basis. Someone whom they would not feel threatened by if they came across him/her along a trail or in a park, in a parking lot, etc.

If their abduction happened anywheres around the lake area, I wonder what the park and/or city maintenance people wear for work clothes? We hear Elizabeth especially was a friendly and chatty child, and if the girls saw a person they recognized, dressed in clothes appropriate for that area, I think they would not have been suspicious, and readily engaged him/her in conversation and probably gone along with them without much hesitation.

I think whomever took the girls had watched them long enough, or knew the family routines enough, to have several opportunities in mind. The abductor may be someone who is so close to one of the families they know the family routines without doing much stalking or observing.

The home the girls were at that day does not sit in the middle of a group of just homes, but there are businesses around there as well. So many opportunities for someone with bad intentions to observe 2 little gals innocently riding around on bikes, like kids should be able to do anywhere.

I feel this was not done by a total stranger, it is someone at least one of the families knows, if not all the families, and it will be another case of many being shocked at who the abductor really is. I don't think that person is a sexual deviant, but more someone with not all cylinders firing, a front for someone else behind the scenes, who wanted the girls for whatever reason.

 

[zoebella]

Thanks for the help with the scanner! So very much appreciated!! You all are angels, I hope you know that.

Back to the basement I go....

 

[CHERIE.T]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record .....but if the cops are "doing a lot under the surface", how long is it going to take them to solve this double abduction?
rhetorical question


Statistically the longer the girls are missing the less of a chance they'll be found.
Imoo LE doesn't have much to work with.Lastly and Personally I don't believe LE has a poi.

 

[CHERIE.T]

My feeling is this was planned by someone who knew at least one of the girls, maybe just on a casual basis. Someone whom they would not feel threatened by if they came across him/her along a trail or in a park, in a parking lot, etc.

If their abduction happened anywheres around the lake area, I wonder what the park and/or city maintenance people wear for work clothes? We hear Elizabeth especially was a friendly and chatty child, and if the girls saw a person they recognized, dressed in clothes appropriate for that area, I think they would not have been suspicious, and readily engaged him/her in conversation and probably gone along with them without much hesitation.

I think whomever took the girls had watched them long enough, or knew the family routines enough, to have several opportunities in mind. The abductor may be someone who is so close to one of the families they know the family routines without doing much stalking or observing.

The home the girls were at that day does not sit in the middle of a group of just homes, but there are businesses around there as well. So many opportunities for someone with bad intentions to observe 2 little gals innocently riding around on bikes, like kids should be able to do anywhere.

I feel this was not done by a total stranger, it is someone at least one of the families knows, if not all the families, and it will be another case of many being shocked at who the abductor really is. I don't think that person is a sexual deviant, but more someone with not all cylinders firing, a front for someone else behind the scenes, who wanted the girls for whatever reason.

Super bee, great post. :rocker:
I agree with most all you said.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Thank you for posting that GrainneDhu. That is really frightening. OT somewhat but I had a situation like that happen to me before that scares me to this day. I was in my early 20's and was pretty suspicious about the whole situation, but thought it was "ok" since I was in a familliar area, and easily within yelling distance of my boyfriend and his roommates - the store was right around the corner. I got a little too close to the driver who needed directions and had the "map" down pretty low so you had to get really close to the car to see it. He grabbed my arm but took off when I yanked it away and luckily people pulled into the parking lot. I realized later I could've been long gone before anyone noticed. It would've been incredibly fast. Probably even faster if you're talking about two young innocent girls vs. a pretty hesitant 20 year old.

Wow, what a close call!

I think that not only were you probably more suspicious than two young girls, you were also stronger. If you'd been 10 years old, you might not have had the strength to yank your arm away.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record .....but if the cops are "doing a lot under the surface", how long is it going to take them to solve this double abduction?
rhetorical question

Statistically the longer the girls are missing the less of a chance they'll be found.
Imoo LE doesn't have much to work with.Lastly and Personally I don't believe LE has a poi.

It takes as long as it takes.

The very fact that this has been going on so long makes it seem more likely to me that the perp had no traceable connection to either family. The perp may have had some sort of casual connection but not one such that anyone in either family would remember the perp when LE asked each member of the family to list anyone that may have done this.

I think LE may have a shortlist of suspects from viewing the surveillance footage from various cctvs around town but they don't have enough yet to pinpoint one single vehicle or person for sure.

Sadly, I think the girls were already killed before 14 July.

 

[CHERIE.T]

It takes as long as it takes.

The very fact that this has been going on so long makes it seem more likely to me that the perp had no traceable connection to either family. The perp may have had some sort of casual connection but not one such that anyone in either family would remember the perp when LE asked each member of the family to list anyone that may have done this.

I think LE may have a shortlist of suspects from viewing the surveillance footage from various cctvs around town but they don't have enough yet to pinpoint one single vehicle or person for sure.

Sadly, I think the girls were already killed before 14 July.

Hi GrainneDhu. thanks for replying. I agree with you about the likely deaths early on.

 

[nikb]

Can you imagine how the parents and granmas feel?
How do they go on day after day while knowing another
day passing means still no Lyric and no Lizzy!

I get upset when my husband and adult kids are late coming home!

HOW have they survived 8 weeks?
I literally would likely go insane ....I'd need meds 24/7.
I pray the girls are found ad come home.

No, I can't (re: how they feel). I can't even imagine how heartbreaking it is for the families/loved ones. Even if the girls are returned safe and sound (unlikely but I'm trying to keep hoping!), these past 8+ weeks have to be pure agony.

 

[nikb]

Wow, what a close call!

I think that not only were you probably more suspicious than two young girls, you were also stronger. If you'd been 10 years old, you might not have had the strength to yank your arm away.

Yeah it was pretty scary. It makes me wonder how many stories are out there like that, where the possible victim got away basically because of a fluke. In the instance I mentioned I could see the store clerk who I knew pretty well. He was helping a customer inside. The whole thing lasted well under a minute, but I could've been long gone before anyone would notice. Even if I yelled i think it would've been one of those "[to a friend] huh did you hear that? well if we hear another weird noise we'll go check it out" kind of things.

I've briefly mentioned my muscle condition earlier. I hate to say it but I was most definitely not strong enough to yank my arm away, without the massive adrenaline rush. IMO any average 10 year old would be much stronger than I was at that point, but they might not have that gut "fight or flight" response fully ingrained yet. I don't think it's something that can even be taught, it just happens, but I would bet that adrenaline rush has saved numerous kids (and adults for that matter)... IMO

 

[TxLady2]

I had thought about that too,but then that would make this a random act IMO .how could a perp just see two girls and make a plan in an instant (which is about how long it took I'm guessing) how he would abduct two girls without being seen. I just can't think of a senario that works with this being random because of the speed at which it happened and the setting also. Anyone follow what I mean?

I'm sort of catching up, but wanted to comment onthis. I am not sure I would call it a random act here, but some child predators usually act on opportunity, not a plan. Not all, but some. And it can happen in a matter of seconds. Some child is in the wrong place at the wrong time, and they seize the opportunity. It's happened many times before.
While I don't discount others' theories that it was a planned act, I still think it's possible that some perp just saw them and somehow managed to subdue them and get them into his vehicle and the rest is history. I don't know if the bikes were staged, or they just abandoned them to go and check something else out, and we may never know for sure. But I do not think there had to be two perps, because it is entirely possible that one could have done it alone. Child sexual predators don't normally work in pairs, from all that I've heard and read, and they don't always target one particular child... they may have a preference of age and/or sex, but many of them are opportunists and they take what they find.

 

[TxLady2]

If everyone factors in statistics, coincidence, instinct and the few known facts released by LE/FBI/DCI, I wonder how many people favor planned abduction over random abduction?

When I look at what we know, I interpret the facts and circumstances to be clear evidence of a planned abduction.

But others, looking at the same set of facts and circumstances, just as clearly see evidence of a random abduction.

The same is true of known/unknown abductor. I firmly believe the abductor(s) were known to the girls and at least one girl's family. This could be through friendship, church, work or other relationship.

But others looks at the same info and believe the abductor was a pedophile and unknown to the girls.

It's interesting how so many well-meaning, dedicated, smart people can look at the same situation and see it in so many ways!

Yes, it is interesting.
But what is even more interesting is that it could be both. A predator might have a sort of plan lined out, and still act when the opportunity arises. IOW, he is prepared, but he does not know the exact moment his opportunity will present itself. When it does, he acts on impulse but in a calculated manner.

I guess my question to those who think it was planned would be: HOW did he know when or if the girls would be at the spot where they were taken? They probably did not ride their bikes at the same time every day, nor did they have a specific route they took every day. So how could someone KNOW where they would be at that moment? It had to be random in that respect. If he targeted one or both of them, and had an elaborate plan in place, then that means he knew they were always in a certain place at a certain time, every day, and I don't think this was the case. So, IMO, it was halfway planned but also random. Maybe he knew which girl he wanted and he got a bonus when the other one was there, too.

 

[TxLady2]

I think there's a couple reasons why LE hasn't issued such warnings.

Right after it happened, what point would there have been to a warning? Even in my town over 90 miles away people were being very cautious with their children. Any parent who was not taking extra precautions would not have been influenced by hearing a warning.

Living in Iowa all my life, I've rarely heard any such warnings.

After Johnny Gosch was abducted, The Des Moines Register asked the local police if there was any reason to change their policies on carriers. The answer was no, so the Register didn't make any changes.

After Eugene Martin disappeared, I don't think the Register even consulted the police, they just changed their policies and fired all carriers under 16.

There still wasn't a community wide warning.

Then Marc Allen disappeared... and still no community wide warning.

The times I've seen warnings, it has been through the schools. Schools in the potential risk area notify parents directly, rather than relying on media alerts. I think this is actually a more effective system, especially now that there is no single media source that is likely to reach most people, the way radio and TV once was (in the days before cable TV).

Finally, in a sense, it's just not an Iowa thing to do. As Ollipop once observed, the Iowa way is to look as serene as ducks swimming on a pond while out of sight, we're all paddling like mad.

I think that really applies to the Elizabeth and Lyric case; LE looks like they're doing nothing but there's a lot going on under the surface where it can't be seen.

LE do not want to put the public in panic mode, because that makes their jobs harder. People would be calling 911 every time some stranger happened to look sideways at their child, and LE would have to waste their time responding when it turned out to be nothing.
Parents should not have to be told to be diligent with their childrens' safety, it should make them extra cautious when something like this happens, yet there will always be things happening at a time when a parent loosens the strings a little bit or is distracted by something else.

 

[TxLady2]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record .....but if the cops are "doing a lot under the surface", how long is it going to take them to solve this double abduction?
rhetorical question


Statistically the longer the girls are missing the less of a chance they'll be found.
Imoo LE doesn't have much to work with.Lastly and Personally I don't believe LE has a poi.

You are so right, statistically their chances of being found are reduced with every day. And you could also be right that they don't have a POI, we just don't know. But the only way they are going to narrow it down is to keep investigating, and I believe that's what they're doing.
When there is nothing they can tell the public, they aren't going to say anything. I hope this turns out like the Mickey Shunick case and all of a sudden they announce they've got their perp in custody.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Yes, it is interesting.
But what is even more interesting is that it could be both. A predator might have a sort of plan lined out, and still act when the opportunity arises. IOW, he is prepared, but he does not know the exact moment his opportunity will present itself. When it does, he acts on impulse but in a calculated manner.

I guess my question to those who think it was planned would be: HOW did he know when or if the girls would be at the spot where they were taken? They probably did not ride their bikes at the same time every day, nor did they have a specific route they took every day. So how could someone KNOW where they would be at that moment? It had to be random in that respect. If he targeted one or both of them, and had an elaborate plan in place, then that means he knew they were always in a certain place at a certain time, every day, and I don't think this was the case. So, IMO, it was halfway planned but also random. Maybe he knew which girl he wanted and he got a bonus when the other one was there, too.

IMO, the girls were there because they were meeting the abductor(s) there. It was prearranged, although probably not all that far in advance because one of the girls might have told someone about it. I tend to think this person made contact with at least one of the girls directly rather than online. I also think this person is well known to at least one girl's family. By well known, I don't necessarily mean "known" in a close friendship way, maybe a person who is generally well known in the community.

Again, JMO, and subject to change without notice

 

[passionflower]

After reading about a 49 year woman molester, using drugs on children, selling drugs, child , child abuse in a thread I started..........now I see how easy it is to trust a neighbor woman with children!
Poor children!
IMO, this is what could of happened to Lyric and Elizabeth.
and then this was on the site..........
Police told KDKA-TV at that time that Ms. Smallis used her juvenile children during drug deals.Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories...with-child-sexual-abuse-653847/#ixzz26pM4phR8

 

[Marilynilpa]

After reading about a 49 year woman molester, using drugs on children, selling drugs, child , child abuse in a thread I started..........now I see how easy it is to trust a neighbor woman with children!
Poor children!
IMO, this is what could of happened to Lyric and Elizabeth.
and then this was on the site..........
Police told KDKA-TV at that time that Ms. Smallis used her juvenile children during drug deals.Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories...with-child-sexual-abuse-653847/#ixzz26pM4phR8

Hi, passionflower, we must live in the same area. I'm in Pittsburgh.

It's hard to understand how anyone can do those awful things to children, but when I read about a mother doing that to her own children, it's totally incomprehensible to me.

 

[Jax49]

After reading about a 49 year woman molester, using drugs on children, selling drugs, child , child abuse in a thread I started..........now I see how easy it is to trust a neighbor woman with children!
Poor children!
IMO, this is what could of happened to Lyric and Elizabeth.
and then this was on the site..........
Police told KDKA-TV at that time that Ms. Smallis used her juvenile children during drug deals.Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories...with-child-sexual-abuse-653847/#ixzz26pM4phR8

Here's another article about the same 'person'.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49062043

snipped

McCarthy said Smallis was arrested at an apartment upstairs from her child care business in North Fayette that is now closed, but he told Channel 4 Action News’ Bob Mayo none of those children are currently part of the investigation.
“Absolutely not. There's no inference of that whatsoever,” said McCarthy.

 

[Anna1964]

Yes, it is interesting.
But what is even more interesting is that it could be both. A predator might have a sort of plan lined out, and still act when the opportunity arises. IOW, he is prepared, but he does not know the exact moment his opportunity will present itself. When it does, he acts on impulse but in a calculated manner.

I guess my question to those who think it was planned would be: HOW did he know when or if the girls would be at the spot where they were taken? They probably did not ride their bikes at the same time every day, nor did they have a specific route they took every day. So how could someone KNOW where they would be at that moment? It had to be random in that respect. If he targeted one or both of them, and had an elaborate plan in place, then that means he knew they were always in a certain place at a certain time, every day, and I don't think this was the case. So, IMO, it was halfway planned but also random. Maybe he knew which girl he wanted and he got a bonus when the other one was there, too.

BBM

I agree. IMO it was planned to some extent, but also may have been sort of impulsive. I can imagine just some everyday, normal guy that may/ may not casually know the girls or family. He could be anyone..... teacher, preacher, coach, delivery guy, postman, or anyone. IMO, he was known to the girls maybe only well enough for them not to consider him a stranger. He may have had a fantasy, plan, or whatever it would be considered, for a what if scenario. Did he target one of the girls? I think probably, but they may also just have been there(where ever there may have been) when the opportunity to actually abduct a child presented itself.

 

[CHERIE.T]

You are so right, statistically their chances of being found are reduced with every day. And you could also be right that they don't have a POI, we just don't know. But the only way they are going to narrow it down is to keep investigating, and I believe that's what they're doing.
When there is nothing they can tell the public, they aren't going to say anything. I hope this turns out like the Mickey Shunick case and all of a sudden they announce they've got their perp in custody.

I wish the same thing. To come here and read that a perp is arrested and the girls are found ..... That will be a wondrous day.