IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 - #14

[goodgirl65]

Maybe i missed the answer to this many pages ago, but why isnt the JR friend from MI who was supposedly in his apt that night, why isnt HE a named POI? He was there wasnt he? He has eyes, i presume. Unless he was sleeping and has been cleared by LDT? What gives on that? I dont recall if his name has ever been printed, etc?

 

[sueC]

Just popping in with a possible scenario posted on the TG blog this morning (in comments to TG’s witness story). Click links for full comments. In a nutshell:

LS leaves CR’s apt, goes to JR’s, parties with JR and mystery hometown friend. LS leaves with JR’s friend around 3:30. He may not have known about the alley so they walked down College- no cams there. She’s so drunk she can’t even tell him where she lives. She’s losing it...they sit down on steps at Tenth & College. The witness sees them there at 3:38. He lifts her and carries her back to JR in a panic. Bad things happen- they call DR but he doesn’t answer. Alibi: I’ll say she left at 4:30- let’s say LS made the phone call.

http://tonygatto.wordpress.com/2011...at-tenth-and-college-at-338-a-m/#comment-2199

http://tonygatto.wordpress.com/2011...at-tenth-and-college-at-338-a-m/#comment-2200

http://tonygatto.wordpress.com/2011...at-tenth-and-college-at-338-a-m/#comment-2220

 

[cluciano63]

Maybe i missed the answer to this many pages ago, but why isnt the JR friend from MI who was supposedly in his apt that night, why isnt HE a named POI? He was there wasnt he? He has eyes, i presume. Unless he was sleeping and has been cleared by LDT? What gives on that? I dont recall if his name has ever been printed, etc?

He may well be a POI; it is not the police who have named names, it is the media. Who knows why they have not gotten hold of his name and published it.

 

[PlainJaneDoe]

Yes, it seems JR goes out of his way to make it appear that he was concerned for LS's welfare. I think that this is clearly a sign that he feels responsible in this matter.
Responsible for what though?

Let's keep in mind that there are a lot of reasons to feel guilty that something happened to a friend or companion. It could be that he did something to harm her. On the other hand, he might believe, correctly or otherwise, that something he did or failed to do allowed her to come to harm.

 

[cluciano63]

Just popping in with a possible scenario posted on the TG blog this morning (in comments to TG’s witness story). Click links for full comments. In a nutshell:

LS leaves CR’s apt, goes to JR’s, parties with JR and mystery hometown friend. LS leaves with JR’s friend around 3:30. He may not have known about the alley so they walked down College- no cams there. She’s so drunk she can’t even tell him where she lives. She’s losing it...they sit down on steps at Tenth & College. The witness sees them there at 3:38. He lifts her and carries her back to JR in a panic. Bad things happen- they call DR but he doesn’t answer. Alibi: I’ll say she left at 4:30- let’s say LS made the phone call.

http://tonygatto.wordpress.com/2011...at-tenth-and-college-at-338-a-m/#comment-2199

http://tonygatto.wordpress.com/2011...at-tenth-and-college-at-338-a-m/#comment-2200

http://tonygatto.wordpress.com/2011...at-tenth-and-college-at-338-a-m/#comment-2220

This could work...at least at first glance. Anyone?

 

[Alliecog]

Does anybody have a link to a video of today's press conference? I missed it.

 

[elmomom]

Maybe i missed the answer to this many pages ago, but why isnt the JR friend from MI who was supposedly in his apt that night, why isnt HE a named POI? He was there wasnt he? He has eyes, i presume. Unless he was sleeping and has been cleared by LDT? What gives on that? I dont recall if his name has ever been printed, etc?

The only source of names so far has been HT. She barely mentioned the friend, and as far as I know never mentioned his name. LE has never given us names for any of the POIs AFAIK.

 

[bunnyesq.]

This could work...at least at first glance. Anyone?

Absolutely in the realm of possibility, thanks!

 

[Frogzilla]

Father of missing IU student makes appeal to parents- Friday PC
http://www.wthr.com/story/15010660/robert-and-charlene-spierer-to-speak-at-1100-o-clock-this-morning
During most of the interview, Mr. Spierer seems very focused and is thanking everybody for their help so far, but when he begins to speak of LS friends and their parents, his tone and demeanor quickly change to frustration and helplessness. After Mr. Spierer says, " Help your children find the courage to come forward" , he seems ready to completely break down during the long pause and he then continues, " Help them find their moral compass". That sent chills down my spine and I feel sooo bad for the Spierer family.

 

[cluciano63]

Just popping in with a possible scenario posted on the TG blog this morning (in comments to TG’s witness story). Click links for full comments. In a nutshell:

LS leaves CR’s apt, goes to JR’s, parties with JR and mystery hometown friend. LS leaves with JR’s friend around 3:30. He may not have known about the alley so they walked down College- no cams there. She’s so drunk she can’t even tell him where she lives. She’s losing it...they sit down on steps at Tenth & College. The witness sees them there at 3:38. He lifts her and carries her back to JR in a panic. Bad things happen- they call DR but he doesn’t answer. Alibi: I’ll say she left at 4:30- let’s say LS made the phone call.

http://tonygatto.wordpress.com/2011...at-tenth-and-college-at-338-a-m/#comment-2199

http://tonygatto.wordpress.com/2011...at-tenth-and-college-at-338-a-m/#comment-2200

http://tonygatto.wordpress.com/2011...at-tenth-and-college-at-338-a-m/#comment-2220

And maybe LE did not have a photo of JR's friend to show the witness? And LE said no one was a "mystery man" to them, that there was not anyone they were not aware of...this could fit...still thinking about it. Wish we knew who this friend was and what he looks like.

 

[bx2]

I did ask for people to show me otherwise, but you have NOT done so. I used real published data not my "feeling" about what I see reported on TV.
The odds of being abducted and murdered by a stranger are at least 1,000 times higher than dying from prescription medication. So, while either is POSSIBLE, which is most PROBABLE?

The odds of being abducted by a stranger are much much higher if you have been abducted in the first place. We are in agreement that the act of being abducted by a stranger is in itself an extremely rare occurrence, but, if you have been abducted in the first place, clearly the odds that it was someone random are significantly lower then when you weren't abducted.\

Edit- probably still confusing. Try coming up with the number of missing adults and then figure the odds that it was a stranger off of that rather then coming up with the odds based on the population at-large.

 

[Skigirl]

you mean a synagogue

The vigil was in a church, not a synagogue.

 

[webrocket]

There are approximately 115 stranger abductions of children, approximately half of which end in murder, which brings the total down to 57 (which is about 1 in 2 Million since there are around 100 million children under 18) . The number of adults abducted is sad to be far less(could not find exact number), so if you narrow it white, female between 18 and 21, yes it starts to increase the odds more. Then, factor in the very small window of opportunity - I think it's more like 1 in 5 billion, but raised the chance to 1 in 500 million to be conservative. Show me some better math and maybe I'll be convinced of some higher odds, but it's certainly no higher than it is for a child stranger abduction/murder and that still puts is as the least likely statistical option.

I don't think your original post was limited to just white females between the age of 18 and 21 and to limit the statistical population to that group does not make much sense to me.

for your original statistic to be accurate for the entire population, you would be talking about 2 stranger abductions every three years.

there are plenty of stranger abduction cases being discussed right here on WS, not counting those not known to be conclusively done by strangers.

unless someone is citing official statistics, I think it does the discussion a disservice to invent statistical probabilities.

 

[holly2325]

This could work...at least at first glance. Anyone?

1. I'm ok with most of this

2. A little odd that only one person sees these two rambling down the street, odd but not impossible. You would think JR's lies would cover the possibility of a sighting. Like guest took LS out for walk to sober her up.

3. What if the guest turns out to be a midget or a 6'4" Norwegian?

4. If two are involved. Consider that in the moment one had to convince the other to comply. Why would two people be equally motivated to hide LS?

 

[Skigirl]

Maybe his buddy who was visiting him at the time had his watch set to MI time. Aren't they an hour ahead?

No - both Bloomington and the Michigan are on Eastern Time.

 

[cluciano63]

1. I'm ok with most of this

2. A little odd that only one person sees these two rambling down the street, odd but not impossible. You would think JR's lies would cover the possibility of a sighting. Like guest took LS out for walk to sober her up.

3. What if the guest turns out to be a midget or a 6'4" Norwegian?

4. If two are involved. Consider that in the moment one had to convince the other to comply. Why would two people be equally motivated to hide LS?

To address #4, maybe she did die of natural causes in the presence of both of them.

 

[Blythe]

Father of missing IU student makes appeal to parents- Friday PC
http://www.wthr.com/story/15010660/robert-and-charlene-spierer-to-speak-at-1100-o-clock-this-morning
During most of the interview, Mr. Spierer seems very focused and is thanking everybody for their help so far, but when he begins to speak of LS friends and their parents, his tone and demeanor quickly change to frustration and helplessness. After Mr. Spierer says, " Help your children find the courage to come forward" , he seems ready to completely break down during the long pause and he then continues, " Help them find their moral compass". That sent chills down my spine and I feel sooo bad for the Spierer family.

Bad enough to turn your son in? (hypothetically, of course)

 

[bessie]

SueC-- when TG first posted the witness's statement, some of us speculated that she might have left JRs apt and made her way down the street, but later returned. We hadn't heard about an out of town friend yet. I hadn't, anyway. The thought was that she met the stranger but was able to break away from him, and he didn't pursue her. Or, he was someone she knew other than the known POI's and he brought/helped her back to JRs. It was a loosely put together theory, but it worked the mytery man into the story.

The mystery friend tightens up this theory. I can't think of anything that would rule it out IF there really is a mystery friend and didnt show his photo tothe witness.

I couldn't listen to the pc, but I read about it. Heartbreaking. I'm so glad her parents are determined to see this through. If they leave, Lauren's case goes cold, for sure.

 

[Skigirl]

Do the odds of winning the lottery change because someone wins it?

Sort of - after the lottery has been won, the odds that an individual won it are either 1 or 0 (did or did not). It's an esoteric quirk of probabilities.

 

[cluciano63]

Bad enough to turn your son in? (hypothetically, of course)

For me, it would be bad enough to take son and his lawyer to the station and ask for a meeting with police. I would not be able to look at my child in quite the same way again, if he had taken part in, or had knowledge of, something like this and was not willing to face up to it...