Very good theory. You mentioned that you were surprised that they went back to LSs at SW first. Didn't DR also live at SW? If so they could have been going to DRs.I have often thought about that. I really think a rape/sexual assault scenario would have two possible scenarios:
1) Stemming from a planned sexual assault (spiking her drink); or
2) LS willingly took some combination of drugs and these boys took advantage of her.
I think 2 possible outcomes are possible:
1) ONE of these boys planned to do it; or
2) This was a gang rape scenario where all the boys are involved. The one qualifier though is that I think it is plausible that one of JR OR DB might not have initially been involved but would have assisted in a cover up if their start-up business partner was worth the risk to them. Unlikely but possible.
Personally, I DO think this started with her drink being spiked and some level of awareness on all parties. I think she presented very obvious symptoms that are on par with date rape drugs (although, again, they are also common with other drugs, including alcohol alone):
drowsiness or light-headedness
difficulty concentrating
feeling confused or disorientated, particularly after waking up (if you have been asleep)
difficulty speaking, or slurring your words
loss of balance and finding it hard to move
lowered inhibitions
paranoia (a feeling of fear or distrust of others)
amnesia (memory loss) or a "black-out" of events (when you can't remember large sections of your evening)
temporary loss of body sensation (feeling like you are floating above your body, or having an "out of body" experience)
visual problems, particularly blurred vision
hallucinations (seeing, hearing or touching things that aren't there)
nausea and vomiting
unconsciousness
Date rape drugs also work quickly.
"within 20 minutes of being taken"
They can have some serious, scary symptoms that might even spook the one who gave the victim the spiked drink:
convulsions
loss of consciousness
loss of coordination
potentially fatal respiratory failure
seizures
coma, death
http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Drink-spiking/Pages/Symptoms.aspx
http://www.idph.state.il.us/about/womenshealth/factsheets/date.htm
oh, and remember that really disturbing rumor of LS foaming at the mouth? Not too uncommon with GHB. If you Google it, you'll see a lot of personal accounts with people have foamed at the mouth after ingesting GHB. Although that is disturbing, I think it would be a disservice not to mention that some people DO take GHB willingly so even though LS presented symptoms of this sort of drug, it doesn't make it 100% certain she took it unwittingly (although I personally find that unlikely due to the effects on the respiratory system). Here's an article from what appears to be a legitimate source about a girl who is believed to have been drugged.
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/nort...s-warning-to-guard-your-glass-72703-19839294/
Just curious, those who think that there was an a sexual assault beyond anything drug-related, are you of the theory that this was a case of gang rape? I've been doing some basic Google searches and although I could find a lot of statistics on rape itself, it seemed that there wasn't much out there on gang rapes in college?
http://www.crisisconnectioninc.org/sexualassault/college_campuses_and_rape.htm
I DO think this might have began with a spiked drink situation. They weren't at the bar very long, but they were there long enough that the effects should have started happening. From the link above, I was shocked to see that the victim's residence is used predominantly, but that actually fits given that they attempted to go back to LS' place first.
If true, I highly doubt murder was planned.
If her drink was spiked, that would be in line with her symptoms AND what her friends/parents have said --> LS did NOT do hard drugs. It also fits with the idea that LS would be unlikely to use harder drugs given that she KNEW she had a potentially serious health condition.
However, I still think, for others to be involved, that it would have to move beyond CR and somehow involve MB and AT LEAST DB or JR. That could be done in a couple different scenarios:
1. CR spikes drink. CR initially tries to take her home, has a run-in with boys who either a) recognize how badly off she is, b) recognize the symptoms, and/or c) CR has a reputation for this and these boys know it. They tell him to take her home, he mouths off, fight and drama ensue, and CR decides to peace out rather than deal with potential security/police when he has a very incoherent, not-21-yet LS that may or may not have had her drink spiked.
2. Some kind of sexual assaults happens.
- CR does it: (MB is aware that CR spiked her drink and now he has brought her home). LS becomes worse. He goes to get MB for help. MB goes to JR's because it is late, LS is in bad shape, and he doesn't necessarily want to involve LE. JR, who has DB over, and they argue about calling police because they are culpable in some way too (maybe they provided CR with the drug.). For whatever reason, they decide not to call or she dies in the process, leaving them with a body and rape evidence.
-MB does it: CR really was put to bed. Same scenario, minus CR. CR will go along with their decisions because he created the situation.
- MB/CR AND JR/DB - same scenario, just JR/DB are more culpable.
- MB/CR/JR/DB - all equally culpable.
Definitely leaves evidence. All would be culpable (to different degrees) if a situation presented itself where some provided drugs, some assaulted her, and all decided to not call for help.
I'm not sure if I necessarily think a sexual assault is totally necessary though. I think intent would suffice, regardless if it happened or not. For example:
DB visits. He brings the drugs with him.
JR and DB are talking to CR & CR buys then with both of them present. They are aware of what he is likely to use it for. Maybe they don't know it is for LS specifically, but whatever. There it is.
CR mentions it to MB.
As I've said before, I can definitely see the panic if she were to die during something like that. If you haven't, look up "Joey Upshaw"
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/upshaw-329167-joey-students.html
Fraternity Brother at OSU. Took GHB VOLUNTARILY at a frat party and showed symptoms very similar to LS, crashing into walls, unable to talk or walk, lips turning blue. They put him to bed to "sleep it off." When they realized something was wrong, they argued about calling the police because they were scared. They did, eventually, but he died. The tragedy? Had they called earlier, he might be alive today.
I see no reason to think that LS differs much in that respect. I think it is very questionable whether her behavior was due to drugs she voluntarily or involuntarily took (although, at least some were of her own choices, such as alcohol, I wouldn't argue that point).
I think it is certainly possible, and her behavior definitely makes me think she might have had something slipped into her drink, I'm not sure if it was even possible to progress to that point, depending on if she passed on before, or they recognized that she was reallyyyyyy badly off.
I really do wonder if there was a reputation/rumors about one or several of them spiking drinks because THAT is something I can see JW thinking, "omg, this might be really bad. I need to report her missing ASAP." It would explain why everyone was so worried very early on after a night of partying where it wouldn't be unheard of to lose your phone or sleep elsewhere (I do draw the line at her shoes ---> I think that IS extremely abnormal, even drunk. Maybe if she had had heels on and her feet hurt, but they were flats, right?)
CLUE: The Calls and conversation that didn't happen.
If you were JR (and taking what you know he observed, said and did up until 4:30 am that night) After supposedly watching LS barefoot it towards N. College from his narrow balcony, what would you do next, and what should have been the last thing you said to LS?
VV, you have very logical, strong opinions and get support from people.
Try to be a little more respectful when you disagree. By saying 25%, I actually think that's a good chance. In the 2.5-3 block square radius from where she disappeared, there are 5 or 6 half way houses and group homes for sexual offenders and drug addicts.One of them, Amethyst House, islocated right across from the turn in to that alley leading to House Bar. Anyone looking out of the west windows there could also see LS turn the corner towards SW. Not blaming anyone there, IMO When you add the XX rated videos and sex toy shops (2) and the late night lingerie modelling club to the mix in the same exact area, there is a possibility that someone was there right when she was, just like Mickey. Not going after that seedy night
life for suspects is a mystery, maybe they are. See, not accusing the kids at the House Bar, it's that I'm wondering if any regular weirdos stopped in there. since they're so close to both the sex clubs and the half-way houses, maybe they have seen people casing the alley leading to the back patio. If
I were a desperate junkie I could wait for these privileged kids to score dope and then mug them right in the alley, or just figure they had money/dope on them anyway. Also, if I were a would be abductor I could watch these alleys for a lone victim.
so IMO if I were a detective I would get a list of men staying there
and the other places although I'm sure they already have. I looked up the area on Neighborhood Watch and it was literally peppered with sex offenders.
So yes, everything points to the friends, thus the 75%, but you cannot convince me that it's a done deal. Because they at the very least abandoned her.
Please poke holes in theories, this is how we get closer to substance.
First of all Random Stranger abduction is Rare, it's not 25%. In this case, there is a very small window of opportunity decreasing those already small odds to something on the order of less than 1 in 10,000.
But of course there are 320 million people in the USA so that does leave it as a possibility, it DOES happen. Now the type of perps you are suggesting seem to fall into 2 categories. 1) Street thugs and 2) Kidnapper Sex offenders / Serial Killers
For category 1) Street Thugs they rarely go to great lengths to dispose of a body. If someone mugged her, like if this were an alley in El Paso, Sunset Strip or 45th St. in Chicago... they would just fling her into a ditch or leave her right there. Someone looking to score a quick fix, is very much focused on the fix, and not spending protracted amounts of time hiding bodies.
For category 2) Sex Offenders, then you open up a whole other can of worms. There are those that rape'm and ditch'm much like a junkie needing a fix. As rare as this behavior is, and as small of a window that existed, the bodies are usually discovered. And there is usually a pattern that LE follows for these sorts of things. The more calculating abductor, who is watching and waiting for such an opportunity, who might keep her as a sex slave, rape or kill and then very carefully dispose of the body, is exceedingly rare. Unfortunately not as rare was winning the powerball. Odds are on the order of 1 in 3 Million.
when comparing the odds of the likelihood of these events against the inconsistent stories of those at 5N, and her known condition (including the last video footage of her falling face down) I'm more like 98.8% suspecting those at 5N(including JR's guest / DB), 1% non-stranger not at 5N, and .02% random stranger junkie / rapists and .00001% or less for calculating stranger abduction / serial
killer / sex slaver, etc.
For a criminal jury, they have to decide on "beyond a reasonable doubt"
For a civil case, they decide on "preponderance of evidence"
Since WS'rs don't have access to LE facts (and hopefully they really know more than we do) a real case could go much differently.
But if I were sitting on a Jury in a civil trial, I'm way past the point of preponderance of evidence if all of what we think to be true were verified as actual facts and were admissible. I'm not sure where "beyond a reasonable doubt" line exists... for you there is a great deal of doubt, for me, there is little doubt it involves those at 5N (but I would have trouble convicting anyone specific at this point) And so if you and I were on the same Jury in a criminal case, if the only evidence is what we know now were the truth, they would all get off. For me there would have to be some compelling evidence that narrows down more precisely what happened, where she died and who took care of the body. What we have right now is more like a game of Clue. We have a number of POI's, and a high degree of certainty that one or more of them is involved. We just don't know which ones, where and how.
I don't think we are going to get any closer than this, because if LE has anything that could zero in on the specific individuals and what they did, they would probably only reveal it after making arrests. (not that I'm giving up)
the point of a polygraph is to see if someone is lying and get an idea of what is going on. If they asked a rhetorical question like that, a person could object and simply say, we never fought, or there was no violence... and then the polygraph would indicate LIE or NO LIE.
It's true LE does TRICK the truth out of people. And the TRUTH is what we need here.
been a long time since I posted anything in connection with Lauren Spierer.
all I can say is that I personally find it hard to believe that a group of college kids, who were up all night "partying", could do in a friend, somehow dispose of her body without leaving any forensic evidence behind, and then by the next day all manage to keep it together and keep quiet.
looks to me like the work of a stranger who had a vehicle and got out of town with Lauren.
1) Why did JR NOT tell LS to call him when she got back to SW?
He made a point to say that she had her SW keycard, so she would not need to call anyone to gain entry to the building, but would need entry to her apt.
So if he had told her to call him, and then she didn't call, he should have then started calling to find out what happened right away. Starting with HT, LS's roommate. But, no such calls occurred. Then he would have discovered that she didn't make it and could have called 911.
After polling people, the answers that I got where similar.
1) Why did JR NOT tell LS to call him when she got back to SW?
all I can say is that I personally find it hard to believe that a group of college kids, who were up all night "partying", could do in a friend, somehow dispose of her body without leaving any forensic evidence behind, and then by the next day all manage to keep it together and keep quiet.
looks to me like the work of a stranger who had a vehicle and got out of town with Lauren.
Trying to make a liar out of someone based on the snips of conversation reported in the media and the hearsay from the attorneys and other people around the situation is just an impossible task. For every certainty we think we have arrived at in someone's story, there is muddled detail and drunken logic that is just too tough for us to go back and assign intent to now.
"Rosenbaum said he finally let Spierer leave after she demonstrated she could walk without stumbling. As she was walking away, he said, he urged her again to stay, then told her to text him if she retrieved her phone." -pg. 5 of the same ol Lohud one year later story.
As to some of the other points, I think this is another case of trying to apply logic to the situation in hindsight. Of course he isn't going to call 911 after not hearing from her, especially if she didn't find her phone. In hindsight, of course it wasn't the correct decision to let her leave. In hindsight, pieces of conversation such as "we should get together tonight", get replayed over and over in the minds of those that it haunts even though at the time, there may have been nothing strange at all about not being in contact.
Trying to make a liar out of someone based on the snips of conversation reported in the media and the hearsay from the attorneys and other people around the situation is just an impossible task. For every certainty we think we have arrived at in someone's story, there is muddled detail and drunken logic that is just too tough for us to go back and assign intent to now.
qft. any theory that involves that group makes me question how lucky people could be to leave absolutely zero evidence in the commission of a homicide wherein they, as the perpetrators, were reportedly all blitzed on booze or drugs.
Pharm Parties
Not sure if someone posted on this before. While there has been reports of various drugs
a) some reports of LS talking at Kilroy's about what she'd taken (including Xanax and Opiates)
b) some reports (or rumors?) of DR admitting to using Klonopin that night with LS.
c) the commonness of cocaine in this type of evironment
A recent phenomenon has been occuring heavily in the East Coast: Pharm parties.
Where people bring various random pills and capsules... they throw them together on a table or hard surface, crush and mix them together sometimes with coke, meth, X or heroin into a powder. Then they snort this pharmaceutical cocktail. extremely risky!
Has this been going on in Bloomington? Has anyone who posts ever been to a party at JR's or was there the night LS vanished? If so, was there some Pharm blending going on? These pharmacuetical coctails also fit the symptoms.