IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 #33

[Mahouston69]

This is where I feel like we're staring right at the main clue and can't see it. CR wakes up and can't remember anything after being hit... there's no video or witness to place LS at his apt, with MB or JR after Kilroys. If they're asserting a "story" and really no amnesia why volunteer the other two into the story at all?

 

[CoolJ]

We also have another eye witness, however, saying that Lauren and CR arrived at his place, CR went to bed, and Lauren then left under her own power, after trying to convince the witness to go out partying with her. So if we presume CR is guilty it seems like this other person must have been involved to some extent.

Occam's Razor is often misunderstood and misquoted. For one thing, William of Occam never said the most simple explanation was more likely to be correct, but rather that it was easier to evaluate/analyze. And he was specifically referring to the interpretation of scripture (being a theologian), not the interpretation of evidence in a criminal investigation.

Also, if we presume CR to be guilty we have to assume the last person to report seeing her to carry some guilt as well.

Thanks for the history lesson on William of Ockham. But in 2014 and the past 500 or so years the term Occams Razor has many different applications and the way I used it above was not misunderstood. Even you understood me.

 

[AbbeyR]

We also have another eye witness, however, saying that Lauren and CR arrived at his place, CR went to bed, and Lauren then left under her own power, after trying to convince the witness to go out partying with her. So if we presume CR is guilty it seems like this other person must have been involved to some extent.

That was, ftr, only one of Mike Beth's stories. The last we heard, he wasn't home when CR and Lauren arrived, was concerned about her well-being because she was so out of it, and carried her over to JR's where they made calls to try to find someone to take her home.

But yes, between the amnesia and changing / conflicting stories of the other 2 'persons of interest' to last see Lauren, I presume they are all, at the very least, withholding information, as the private investigators have claimed.

 

[AbbeyR]

Actually someone once told me about a case in which someone was serving a long sentence for selling heroin that caused an overdose. Such cases do happen, just not often.

yes, there are also cases where people who were with people who overdosed who did not call for help were charged with manslaughter and/or held responsible under a 'duty of care' claim.

 

[Ixchel13]

would like to throw 2 questions out for everyone:

Why do you think the Bloomington Police Dept hasn't formally cleared
the 10 or so POIs in Lauren's case?

and

Why do you think they haven't named all of the POI's?

 

[Ixchel13]

We also have another eye witness, however, saying that Lauren and CR arrived at his place, CR went to bed, and Lauren then left under her own power, after trying to convince the witness to go out partying with her. So if we presume CR is guilty it seems like this other person must have been involved to some extent.



Occam's Razor is often misunderstood and misquoted. For one thing, William of Occam never said the most simple explanation was more likely to be correct, but rather that it was easier to evaluate/analyze. And he was specifically referring to the interpretation of scripture (being a theologian), not the interpretation of evidence in a criminal investigation.

we should remember this is a POI as well as an "eye witness" giving a version of a story that makes him look good and puts the victim in a bad light.

 

[Ixchel13]

Quote, TB Rhine
"Occam's Razor is often misunderstood and misquoted. For one thing, William of Occam never said the most simple explanation was more likely to be correct, but rather that it was easier to evaluate/analyze. And he was specifically referring to the interpretation of scripture (being a theologian), not the interpretation of evidence in a criminal investigation."

Also, if we presume CR to be guilty we have to assume the last person to report seeing her to carry some guilt as well.

Thanks for the history lesson on William of Ockham. But in 2014 and the past 500 or so years the term Occams Razor has many different applications and the way I used it above was not misunderstood. Even you understood me.

The term Occam's razor refers to the philosophical idea or scientific principle that of any given set of explanations for an event occurring, it is most likely that the simplest one is the correct one. Occam's razor does not seek to offer complete and absolute proof, but to find the simplest probable answer to a question of why an event happened.

At least in The Name of the Rose, he was investigating murder....
http://examples.yourdictionary.com/examples-of-occam-s-razor.html

 

[TB Rhine]

But in 2014 and the past 500 or so years the term Occams Razor has many different applications and the way I used it above was not misunderstood. Even you understood me.

I understood how you were using it... I simply pointed out that you were using it incorrectly. If you're going to refer to Occam's Razor as a truism -- presumably, in so doing, relying upon the wisdom and reputation of the man who created said truism to bolster your own arguments -- you should at least state it correctly. The oft-quoted formulation of Occam's Razor is neither what Occam said, nor is it used to express the idea that Occam meant to express. It's just a figure of speech, a thing people say, with no more factual or intellectual weight behind it than that nonsense people constantly quote about how we "only use 10% of our brains."

RE: Why Bloomington police haven't eliminated the POIs as suspects.

They haven't eliminated them because they haven't been eliminated. That's a far cry from saying, "They haven't been eliminated as suspects, therefore they MUST be involved."

 

[CoolJ]

So, TB Rhine. Out of curiosity. What do you think happened?

 

[Ixchel13]

So, TB Rhine. Out of curiosity. What do you think happened?

So, TB Rhine. Out of curiosity. What do you think happened?

seriously, CJ? coz I know what's going to happen to this thread if we continue on down this road, lol.

Besides not being eliminated because they haven't been eliminated, natch,
IMO they haven't eliminated any POIs because nothing has come up to rectify the lies they told (not being where they said they were) or the mismatched stories. Not having enough evidence to win a trial and not having ANY evidence
is not the same thing, IOW. Since some of the POIs lived at 5N, some at 10th and College Apts, and some on Grant Street, IMO, they must have some sort of info, read, evidence, that the scope exceeds 5N. LE hasn't even said a peep after the civil trial was dismissed, for that matter, they didn't say a peep when it was announced, leading me to think they have other charges in mind when they get the break they need.

Why they haven't released the names of the other 6 POIs, while still branding them as such makes me wonder if they're still not holding out for some sort of plea agreement if not amnesty in case someone comes forward with the crucial info they need. JMO That, and the fact that the 5N POIs were flushed out by HT and various MSM, iirc, they weren't even that forthcoming with CR's name. I don't think this was because of any fear of defaming them or lawsuits, IMO they didn't want the POIs to know they were POIs right away, and IMO, this is how LE received all of the stories that didn't add up. JMO

 

[akh]

Until law enforcement releases transcripts of their initial conversations with the 5N PsOI I'm not convinced their stories have changed or been conflicted. We've never heard directly from the 5N PsoI in anything of length or note either. Maybe the stories have changed, but we can't confirm that, and if they have it's certainly not been enough for LE to act or gain leverage in any obvious ways. Plus, the civil filings don't speak to any conflicts. They simply don't match with what the early (and very spotty) reporting told us. And even then, it could be that the civil filings were just more detailed than the spotty reporting, not that they actually show conflict with what is in LE's files.

This whole case, as far as the public goes, IMHO, after all this time is simply still at square one. Anyone who thinks they have it figured out by the info that is in the public domain is either kidding themselves, lucky (if they turn out to be right), or actually privy to info the rest of us aren't.

 

[AbbeyR]

Well, I still always think of what the private investigators said a year after Lauren went missing, after they had interviewed the POI:

The Spierers’ private detectives, who have interviewed more than 100 people, have questioned nearly all of the “persons of interest” since they were hired by the family, with the exception of Rossman.

But they’re not satisfied with the ones who have talked. All of them have retained lawyers.

“A lot of those stories don’t line up, and there’s a lot of conflicting statements,” Dietl said. “Absolutely they were holding back information.”

Gain leverage how? I don't think there will be movement forward in this case until Lauren is found. That doesn't speak to how much evidence LE does or does not have.

 

[AbbeyR]

would like to throw 2 questions out for everyone:

Why do you think the Bloomington Police Dept hasn't formally cleared
the 10 or so POIs in Lauren's case?

and

Why do you think they haven't named all of the POI's?

Well, I think the second question is the answer to the first. They haven't cleared any of the POIs, because no one else was named, so there isn't anyone else to 'clear'.

The "up to 10 persons of interest" was stated in the first couple of days after Lauren went missing. When asked again a few days later, LE said the number was fluid, and changes as they interview people and gather more information (or something along those lines), which makes sense.

It's tricky though because on the one hand, it seems obvious that the key POI in this case are those who have been named in the media and the civil suit. LE did go out of their way to say the (named) POI had not been cleared, and they did clear strangers, issuing statements that the driver of the white truck and the crazy guy with the guns were not involved. The Spierers have been pretty clear about who they consider to be persons of interest as well.

But, I'm still confused about a few other people, like the out of town guests and the role that they did or didn't play that night. Did they just luck out by not having their names in the media? But then why weren't they a focus of the Spierers or the lawsuit either? Were they not around late that night?

No one claims to have figured this all out. There are still so many unanswered questions!

 

[AbbeyR]

Until law enforcement releases transcripts of their initial conversations with the 5N PsOI I'm not convinced their stories have changed or been conflicted.

You say this often, but whether or not their statements to LE have changed, the accounts they gave to witnesses, friends and the public are still relevant. Especially, I would think, the very first accounts told to friends and neighbors before lawyers were involved. How likely is it that these stories are different than what they told LE? And if they are, why?

 

[akh]

Well, I still always think of what the private investigators said a year after Lauren went missing, after they had interviewed the POI:



Gain leverage how? I don't think there will be movement forward in this case until Lauren is found. That doesn't speak to how much evidence LE does or does not have.

But the PI's were not exclusively talking about 5N PsOI in that comment. They also included JW specifically.

 

[akh]

You say this often, but whether or not their statements to LE have changed, the accounts they gave to witnesses, friends and the public are still relevant. Especially, I would think, the very first accounts told to friends and neighbors before lawyers were involved. How likely is it that these stories are different than what they told LE? And if they are, why?

We don't actually or accurately know what accounts they gave to witnesses or friends. That's my point. There have been enough inaccuracies in the reporting that it would be very easy to see how what you are hanging your hat on is nothing more than equal parts 'the phone game' and a confused reporter still trying to sort out who is who in the early days. It's not like the stories are wildly conflicting. They are fairly close. Nothing has someone miles away or totally uninvolved with the events of the night. They are close enough a tiny misheard, misremembered, or misreported part could explain away the difference and suddenly it's consistent with the narrative. We know there were a lot of mistakes in the early reporting and confusion about CR and JR and a mixing of the two. And it's not like there are piles and piles of these quotes and witness statements in the press that we're dissecting and comparing. There's really very, very little so the margin of error is huge for a tiny mistake to infiltrate the narrative and lead to a false conclusion if you put too much weight on a lone report. If you had 10 witnesses saying "He told me this" and another says "He told me that" while others continue telling these differing accounts to the press then it would hold more weight. Everyone can't get it that wrong in that case. But when it's only a quote or two from extremely limited sources, and when a tiny change would make all the difference in the world to making the statement consistent then I just don't see trying to hammer on the point and saying they've given conflicting and changing stories. I don't see how that advances the cause at all. Even taking the PI's at face value, it's not like they seem to think the smoking gun is in the statements. They aren't explaining what they have a problem with and how it relates to the narrative per se'. They don't say, so we don't know. So to come to any conclusions is speculation.

And very importantly, they aren't only talking about 5N when they say it anyway. They are talking about others as well.

So....
I am not comfortable saying their stories are conflicting and changing nor I am comfortable not countering when it's said as an absolute. It's simply impossible to say that based on what we actually know. If LE ever releases transcripts that could change. But until we know what they told LE at moment one then we're simply in the dark. In fact, you could just as easily say their stories have been amazingly consistent based on what little we know and think we know.

I hope LE has a good reason for keeping the public this much in the dark.

 

[Mahouston69]

Exactly and whole lot of what was "said" was supposedly repeated accurately by HT. We haven't heard statements from JR, CR, MB, Or JW directly have we? Difficult to say if their stories changed or if they were changed for them.

 

[AbbeyR]

Well, the private investigators had a year before they made that statement to figure out if there had been simple miscommunication in the accounts given by the POI and witnesses. I'd like to hear from the POI too, but I'm not going to discount every account we have because we haven't heard from them directly. They have spoken only through friends and lawyers, or not at all. This obviously allows them to not fully commit to a single story, and to allow room for interpretation and doubt about where the conflicting information is coming from. That is likely their strategy. They could make their own statements. They have also been free to challenge or correct any misinformation out there. They have chosen not to.

 

[Ixchel13]

I'm tending towards the idea that there remains POI besides the 5N and JW. The little LE has given us includes that they haven't been either named or released. We saw names given as witnesses by both the 5N POI and the Spierers in the civil suit, but LE didn't bite on that and acknowledge that any of them were POIs, nor did they comment on the civil suit.
During the lengthy and many press conferences, LE had plenty of time to say they have vetted these POIs and released them. As well as two years hence. They said the number of POIs and the POIs changed fluidly, but remained around ten or so.
Although "the focus" seems to be on only the 5N POIs and JW, I agree that this may seem like that because of HT and MSM outed them and IMO LE has seen fit not to out any of the others.
To go along with their story, which is a bare bones, CR to MB to JR and out the door, of course saying not a word more would be the best strategy. CR not remembering anything from the last 15 minutes of Kilroys until the next day then ices the cake, because it eliminates him having to say who else was around, aka, the other POIs. IMO, this is his trade off for getting to bow out of the story and not be the last
to see Lauren. It also eliminates him from having to say what the altercation was about, and possibly who they might have met at Kilroys. Somehow, though, and IMO it was the hours of footage they viewed, others came into play, and when questioned, IMO, they lied and were then part of the fluid six or so POIs.
IIRC, they viewed both inside and outside camera footage of 10th and College and Villages. ZO, the attacker ( I'm not going with ZO the hero propaganda, even if the PIs say it) lived at 10th and C, and was banned from SW just like CR was. I'm guessing that he probs left SW after the altercation, so he maybe would be seen entering his bldg and then in the hallways or going up to a party somewhere else in his bldg, etc.
As Vidocq will attest, the cameras are many at 10th and C, and people will have been seen coming and going. People who were also involved during the evening at various parties and the altercation, and then being seen coming in 10th and C or leaving 10th and C, during the time after Lauren was last seen would be of interest, and also where they seem to be heading.

Using the Occam's theory (oh-oh), because there seems to be no forensic evidence at JR's, IMO it happened somewhere else, her actual death. But, IMO, it doesn't let anyone from 5N off the hook, in a perfect scenario built by very, very expensive criminal lawyers, 5N would be the decoy simply because it's clean.

Anyone in this timeline who could offer info besides the POIs was discounted (bartender) or asleep (CR, DB, JW and ZC) Notice ZC was wide awake when it comes to saying she saw Lauren do shots but asleep when Lauren needed her.

Don't really feel up to debating the number of POIs remaining, as this has been debated and cannot be confirmed or denied until LE says so.:truce:

 

[Dogface]

I have always followed this case but sadly have never had anything to really add. I just hope as these people get older and start families and understand the love you have for your child they will be overcome with guilt and finally give the family the answers they deserve!