From one Californian to another, HC: great, thoroughly sensible post!
We live 30 miles or less from the San Andreas fault. We're not running for Wisconsin, but we did stock up on water and can goods, and made sure there was a full tank of gas in the car.
I appreciate Bergland's open mind and willingness to consider that there may be interrelationships between tides, the moon, tectonic plates, etc. But as you point out, his track record isn't something on which we need bet the farm.
Rather, simple, common-sense precautions seem in order. And we should be doing those anyway.
Jim Berglund is an interesting character. I've followed his theory, used to get his newsletter and he's pretty decent in terms of forcasting. however, he's not 100%. The "scientific community" tends to poo-poo him, but I don't think that's smart...he's been right enough for me. But remember, just because he said it, doesn't mean it will happen. It's just more likely than not. Living in EQ country, though, makes it more likely that not, too. KWIM?
2.5 isn't big though right??
So...has the extension cord been tested yet?
I have a feeling that for a few hours they will tell us that it is working, that the water is beginning to fow, and then they will tell us that it has stopped working. I personally doubt that it will work in the first place, but we and the Japanese public will have a chance to let the stock markets breathe for a few before they tell us that.
And I don't think we have any idea how much damage has been done up until this point, and that won't be undone by any length of "Cable."
The 3.6 we had here in DC last summer was just a window rattler kind of quake (ok, a tiny bit of damage did happen, but nothing super serious)... so 2.5 is around that.
More smoke rises from Japan's crippled nuke plant
AP 21 mins ago
Smoke billowed from a building at Japan's crippled nuclear power plant Friday as emergency crews worked to reconnect electricity to cooling systems and spray more water on overheating nuclear fuel at the tsunami-ravaged facility
The last one to get my attention was a 7.something last Easter.2.5 is really, really small...so small, in fact, that I can't even feel them, even if they're right under my feet. It's nothing.
A 3.6 is small; I'd probably notice it, but it also might go unnoticed. You might've felt it more in DC, where you're not set up for EQs, or "used to" them, if that's a way to say it...
And just for the record, each number on the richter scale is something like 10 times the strength of the lower number. So, if one only slightly noticed a 3.5, a 2.5 is ten times less power/energy/movement. Same the other way - if you barely felt a 3.5, you'd probably feel a 4.5 quite a bit more.
http://www.buzzle.com/articles/richter-scale-formula.html
Here is some light reading about how the Richter scale is used, and an explanation of how often a quake will occur. Interesting, but somewhat simplistic, but it's fairly accurate.
As for energy released, each whole number up indicated a 31x increase in energy released. Thus, the energy released at a 2.5 is 31x less than a 3.5, and the difference between micro (2 or less) and great (8 or more) is 186 orders. I don't know what energy level is measured, nor how, but it's definitely a different way to measure quakes, and I kinda like it.
There is also the Mercali (sp) scale, which indicates the amount of shaking felt. This is dependent upon where you are when the quake hits; sand will conduct the energy differently than will, say, granite. Sand can actually liquify, which is a terrifying thing...whereas granite does not. That just breaks and splits and builds mountains.
Just a bit of info for everyone. Hope this helps explain why we don't get too excited over a 2, or even a 4 for the most part.
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Herding Cats