Found Deceased JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[annpats]

I really don't know what to think of this anymore, it's all just so baffling.

I don't think it was foul play, I'm firmly in the camp that she had an accident.

It's becoming more apparent she may have gone onto another trail, got lost and then had an accidental trying to find her way back.

If she left the guesthouse at approximately 08.00h, that would have given her a good 10 or 11 hours of daylight (although with dense tree coverage it would've been a bit darker).

She obviously didn't make it back to the original trail ....which means she either:

a) had an accident on another trail early on

b) became more and more lost as the day progressed, then potentially had an accident.

Once sunset hit, it would've been pitch black out there.

Interestingly, she hasn't been found on any of these other trails, which furthers my belief she left the path for whatever reason.... a panicked short cut, maybe? Confusion? Camped down in the undergrowth for the night?

 

[slowpoke]

I really don't know what to think of this anymore, it's all just so baffling.

I don't think it was foul play, I'm firmly in the camp that she had an accident.

It's becoming more apparent she may have gone onto another trail, got lost and then had an accidental trying to find her way back.

If she left the guesthouse at approximately 08.00h, that would have given her a good 10 or 11 hours of daylight (although with dense tree coverage it would've been a bit darker).

She obviously didn't make it back to the original trail ....which means she either:

a) had an accident on another trail early on

b) became more and more lost as the day progressed, then potentially had an accident.

Once sunset hit, it would've been pitch black out there.

Interestingly, she hasn't been found on any of these other trails, which furthers my belief she left the path for whatever reason.... a panicked short cut, maybe? Confusion? Camped down in the undergrowth for the night?

I’m recalling how it was learned she messaged a family friend earlier on to say she lost her orange fleece [jacket]. Then we hear the family saying they found Pattie had left her itinerary behind at the guesthouse, and they didn’t know why, which makes it sound like it wasn’t in a waste bin and that maybe it got left behind accidentally.

These kinds of things can happen to anyone (at least, certainly to ME, lol). I guess I had this image of Pattie being—perhaps unfair and unrealistic of me to think—perfect, and these kinds of ‘mistakes’ don’t jibe with how I had begun to see her—as a planner. Experienced. Confident and capable.

Saying all this to suggest maybe it’s not out of the realm that she did err that morning and started on the wrong path In the first place.

 

[Cedars]

Now, police have spoken with three more people who were all running the trail, about 30 minutes behind Pattie. They also said they never saw her.

However, just because witnesses don't remember seeing her, does not mean she must have gone somewhere else...

It's the same as saying, just because no one remembers seeing her walking somewhere other than the trail, it means she must not have gone anywhere else and therefore must have been murdered at her guesthouse.

I don't know how anyone can be certain they would remember every person they passed on a trail, even immediately after running it, not to mention three weeks later...same with villagers looking out windows/drivers passing by when she set out that morning (and surely one would encounter far more people off the trail than on it).

People get caught up in their own thoughts or whatever, and are oblivious to their surroundings.

Also, she might have stepped off the trail to allow the runners to pass, or been on a bathroom break/little exploration/hugging a tree (whatever), and was completely missed during that crucial 30 seconds that it took to cross paths.

It's really only positive sightings that can be considered evidence, IMO ...if you want to keep an open mind ...

JMO

 

[ZaZara]

However, just because witnesses don't remember seeing her, does not mean she must have gone somewhere else...

It's the same as saying, just because no one remembers seeing her walking somewhere other than the trail, it means she must not have gone anywhere else and therefore must have been murdered at her guesthouse.

I don't know how anyone can be certain they would remember every person they passed on a trail, even immediately after running it, not to mention three weeks later...same with villagers looking out windows/drivers passing by when she set out that morning (and surely one would encounter far more people off the trail than on it).

People get caught up in their own thoughts or whatever, and are oblivious to their surroundings.

Also, she might have stepped off the trail to allow the runners to pass, or been on a bathroom break/little exploration/hugging a tree (whatever), and was completely missed during that crucial 30 seconds that it took to cross paths.

It's really only positive sightings that can be considered evidence, IMO ...if you want to keep an open mind ...

JMO

I am tempted to agree with what you write, however the trail is narrow and slippery in many places and it is not always possible to pass another walker. The guidelines state that:

● WATCH the trail surface, as it is varied and can be slippery.

● PASS other walkers in a wide and safe part of the trail.

Kumano Kodo Essential Trail Conduct
Kumano Kodo Tips & Safety｜Tanabe City Kumano Tourism Bureau

Picture from Randomwire Kohechi day 4 (google) as an example how the track might keep trail runners stuck behind Pattie if they had met her on their way up.

If a trail runner uses an app like STRAVA, they can trace where and when they had to slow down.
If they did / did not slow down in the area where they might have met Pattie, this may also indicate whether she was there or not.

 

[Unsolved]

JM, brother to Pattie’s husband:

“Upon their arrival in Japan, Pattie's family found out she'd left her itinerary behind at the guesthouse, which they found strange.

They're not sure if she left the itinerary behind by mistake or some other reason.

The family and Japanese officials are now focusing on other nearby routes on the off-chance that Pattie decided last minute to go another route. That is also not like her, Murad said.”

Interview with Pattie’s brother-in-law -KSHB 41 News

Great article for spreading awareness and humanizing Pattie for us. She has a wonderful family.

A couple of thoughts from the article. It says "The picture of Pattie at the guesthouse the night before she went missing is cropped. There are two other people in the picture with her, the guesthouse owner and an Australian tourist."

Just idly wondering if the family cropped the picture? MSM? Or did they receive it that way? The article does say LE won't give the family any more info about the others, and maybe that includes their photos?

<and>

"Apparently, Japanese officials searched for Pattie for three days around the trail and didn't find anything.

The police initially told the family they didn't contact the U.S. officials sooner because they didn't know she was a U.S. citizen.

However, the family said that information was clear as day on Pattie's registration information at the guesthouse.

"It says 'USA' written right on the card," Murad said.

Pattie even noted her passport number on the registration."

Wait a minute. LE searched for three days and didn't know she was a US citizen? How could that happen? Wouldn't the guesthouse owner tell them that? SMH.

I veer daily between foul play and accident - tonight is back to foul play. Prayers that I am wrong, and prayers for Pattie either way.

 

[Cedars]

I am tempted to agree with what you write, however the trail is narrow and slippery in many places and it is not always possible to pass another walker. The guidelines state that:

● WATCH the trail surface, as it is varied and can be slippery.

● PASS other walkers in a wide and safe part of the trail.

Kumano Kodo Essential Trail Conduct
Kumano Kodo Tips & Safety｜Tanabe City Kumano Tourism Bureau

Picture from Randomwire Kohechi day 4 (google) as an example how the track might keep trail runners stuck behind Pattie if they had met her on their way up.

If a trail runner uses an app like STRAVA, they can trace where and when they had to slow down.
If they did / did not slow down in the area where they might have met Pattie, this may also indicate whether she was there or not.

Don't know about other people or written trail etiquette, but I always step off a narrow trail to let people pass me. Otherwise it feels like being tailgated by a car, only much worse because you can hear them breathing (down your neck). I would walk a bit uphill on the trail you show and wait for them to pass.

JMO

 

[slowpoke]

However, just because witnesses don't remember seeing her, does not mean she must have gone somewhere else...

It's the same as saying, just because no one remembers seeing her walking somewhere other than the trail, it means she must not have gone anywhere else and therefore must have been murdered at her guesthouse.

I don't know how anyone can be certain they would remember every person they passed on a trail, even immediately after running it, not to mention three weeks later...same with villagers looking out windows/drivers passing by when she set out that morning (and surely one would encounter far more people off the trail than on it).

People get caught up in their own thoughts or whatever, and are oblivious to their surroundings.

Also, she might have stepped off the trail to allow the runners to pass, or been on a bathroom break/little exploration/hugging a tree (whatever), and was completely missed during that crucial 30 seconds that it took to cross paths.

It's really only positive sightings that can be considered evidence, IMO ...if you want to keep an open mind ...

JMO

I agree with what you say. But I guess I had been under the assumption (which may be wrong, of course) that there were no other hikers that morning other than the ones mentioned, so if one did encounter another person on the trail, it would be more memorable. I had read that the Kohechi route is much less traveled than the other Kumano Kodo trails, so you’d see far fewer hikers.

 

[ZaZara]

Don't know about other people or written trail etiquette, but I always step off a narrow trail to let people pass me. Otherwise it feels like being tailgated by a car, only much worse because you can hear them breathing (down your neck). I would walk a bit uphill on the trail you show and wait for them to pass.

JMO

You are obviously much braver than I am!

I get vertigo simply by looking at some of these pictures. If I was on that trail - heaven forbid - and three trail runners came up behind me, they sure would remember me because of the sheer terror on my face, and then they would probably have to carry me down to the next village.

 

[KooshBall]

I got lost once just exploring some woods in a friend's backyard. Once you are out there, everything looks the same, and I thought I was walking back from the way that I came, but ended up way out of the way. It is scary to feel that disoriented. That was a small area of woods, now I am imagining this immense forest that Pattie was hiking and I can definitely believe someone could become lost, without even meaning to be off trail. It could take one "I'm going to step off trail for a pic", and then accidentally heading the wrong way trying to get back to the trail.

 

[ZaZara]

Update by Murphy Murad on the FB Help Find Pattie page (*):

We received information on May 1 regarding three trail runners who were seen on the camera located before Mandokoro at 8am. This same group of athletes were spotted on the post office camera towards the bottom of the trail 3 hours later at 11 am (closer to Taiyo-no-yu). Based on this pace, they would have passed Patricia on the ascent to Miura peak. However, all three trail runners confirmed they never saw her.

This has led many people to believe the likelihood she made it onto the correct trail is significantly lower than we originally thought. There is a path directly across the main trail head that we have been focused on over the last 3 days. Although there is a sign that says "Not Kumano Kodo" at the beginning of this route, we also discovered multiple white banners tied around trees that said "Kohechi Trail" in orange letters. These banners were used for a trail running event back in October of 2022. Coincidentally, the day after we found these banners, two trail maintenance workers were taking them down.

After preliminary search efforts from Mountain Works and our American SAR team, it seems unlikely she would have continued down this path.

However, we have learned a handful of people have struggled finding the entrance to the Kumano Kodo in this area. Since Pattie’s disappearance, new signs have been put in place in multiple areas in Miura Guchi (where Mandokoro is located). We have asked our local team and volunteers to continue their search efforts in this region of the trail. My brother, Bryce, has also managed to procure multiple drones and drone operators in order to cover as much of this new ground as possible. We plan on putting this footage through forensic imaging software (provided by our US SAR team) with the hope to detect colors Pattie was last seen wearing.

After an extensive meeting with investigators on May 2, there is no evidence that suggests foul play occurred in Patricia’s case. However, the investigation remains open and the family still considers this as a possible explanation to her disappearance. The local police have notified the family they will continue providing search efforts on the ground and in the air (helicopters) until May 7. After this date, they will adjust to patrolling along major roads and waterways along the trail.


The bottom line is we still have ZERO leads from both the SAR & investigative side of my mom’s missing persons case and not for a lack of trying.

Again, people do not vanish into thin air.

 

[slowpoke]

I was thinking about how Pattie was aiming to fulfill her Dual Pilgrim status. In order to do that, one needs to show proof by obtaining stamps in a booklet along the way. It seems the stamping areas are little wooden stands, and at least according to one person’s blog, sometimes they are located right on the path, but other times they are a little away from the path. Could this be a reason Pattie may have veered off the main path?

To see the blog reference I am mentioning, Google
The Nomadic Vegan Kumano Kodo

This blogger found it really confusing at times to find the stamping locations. This blogger was on the Nakahechi route, not on the Kohechi, however.

 

[annpats]

I got lost once just exploring some woods in a friend's backyard.

Oh my! This is something that British and Europeans will never be able to have an understanding of.

Although I'm quite grateful of it!
Wilderness on an American, Canadian or Australian scale scares me.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

This case is so sad and there are so many possibilities.

One possibility that crossed my mind is that if Pattie began walking down the wrong trail, and continued in the wrong direction for let's say two hours, by the time she turned around and reached the beginning of the correct trail she would be running four hours late.

The Australian wouldn't see her, the three runners wouldn't see her, and it's somewhat unlikely that other pilgrims would be beginning their trek so late in the day. Pattie would be alone, and it would be starting to get dark when she was still attemping to descend a fairly treacherous trail. She would also be weary having walked miles further than she planned.

Assuming Pattie was ever on the correct trail, and that she ever made it over the Pass, darkness and weariness could definitely be a factor. JMO, of course.

 

[ZaZara]

I was thinking about how Pattie was aiming to fulfill her Dual Pilgrim status. In order to do that, one needs to show proof by obtaining stamps in a booklet along the way. It seems the stamping areas are little wooden stands, and at least according to one person’s blog, sometimes they are located right on the path, but other times they are a little away from the path. Could this be a reason Pattie may have veered off the main path?

To see the blog reference I am mentioning, Google
The Nomadic Vegan Kumano Kodo

This blogger found it really confusing at times to find the stamping locations. This blogger was on the Nakahechi route, not on the Kohechi, however.

The stamp locations of the Kohechi route are listed here:

https://www.tb-kumano.jp/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/stamplist-kohechi.pdf

IMO these are mainly hotels and guesthouses (minshuku, ryokan).
Minshuku Mandokoro where Pattie was staying is on the list.

Info from
Dual Pilgrim｜Tanabe City Kumano Tourism Bureau

 

[annpats]

This case is so sad and there are so many possibilities.

One possibility that crossed my mind is that if Pattie began walking down the wrong trail, and continued in the wrong direction for let's say two hours, by the time she turned around and reached the beginning of the correct trail she would be running four hours late.

The Australian wouldn't see her, the three runners wouldn't see her, and it's somewhat unlikely that other pilgrims would be beginning their trek so late in the day. Pattie would be alone, and it would be starting to get dark when she was still attemping to descend a fairly treacherous trail. She would also be weary having walked miles further than she planned.

Assuming Pattie was ever on the correct trail, and that she ever made it over the Pass, darkness and weariness could definitely be a factor. JMO, of course.

Good point.

If that had happened, I would've hoped she'd have gone back to the guesthouse explained what happened and stayed another night (and started again the next morning) rather that trying to rush through the trail 4 hours late.

Although my own opinion is she didn't realise she was on the wrong path until much much later on, and got stranded in the darkness on it, and possibly had an accident.

 

[annpats]

Is there anyone that could provide a map of this other trail she may have been on?

My questions are: how long is it and what kind of terrain/elevation etc.

Also, where does this other trail end?

 

[ZaZara]

Update by Murphy Murad on the FB Help Find Pattie page (*):

There is a path directly across the main trail head that we have been focused on over the last 3 days. Although there is a sign that says "Not Kumano Kodo" at the beginning of this route, we also discovered multiple white banners tied around trees that said "Kohechi Trail" in orange letters. These banners were used for a trail running event back in October of 2022. Coincidentally, the day after we found these banners, two trail maintenance workers were taking them down.

After preliminary search efforts from Mountain Works and our American SAR team, it seems unlikely she would have continued down this path.

However, we have learned a handful of people have struggled finding the entrance to the Kumano Kodo in this area.

SBM & BBM


Picture of the white banners with orange letters from Help Find Pattie on Twitter

This could have been confusing since it says Kohechi Trail, but it is unlike all the other signage. The family thinks it unlikely that Pattie would have continued on this path, I wonder why?

On the Help Find Pattie page on FB, several pictures have been posted of what looks like various trails and searches. Unfortunately FB wants me to register and turns a blank screen after a few seconds. May that bug disappear soon! I hope others are able to see the maps.

 

[annpats]

Picture of the white banners with orange letters from Help Find Pattie on Twitter

Definitely confusing. If she was lost and on the wrong trail, and saw these banners, this would've (could've?) given her the belief she was on the correct trail!

Poor Pattie.

I do think she ended up far from where she was meant to be, totally lost, confused, tired, cold and having to deal with nightfall....which, I think probably lead to her having an accident.

It seems like a perfect storm

 

[ZaZara]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654251130493214721

https://twitter.com/BrittanyTVNews
Brittany Schaefer

@BrittanyTVNews


The search for Patricia Wu-Murad is on day 24. The Storrs, CT woman vanished while on a solo hiking trip in Japan. Thousands of miles have been traced by foot, drone & helicopter. Her husband Kirk tells me he & their 3 children are distraught and hoping for a miracle
@WTNH


Short video with husband Kirk Murad at link.

 

[Snoopster]

Is there anyone that could provide a map of this other trail she may have been on?

My questions are: how long is it and what kind of terrain/elevation etc.

Also, where does this other trail end?

I had difficulty finding the specific trail on AllTrails, but now I've come across a sub-segment of the trail posted there. Interestingly, there is a caution that it can be difficult to find the trail as you come out of the village.



I presume they are referring to finding access to the bridge since they reference signboards and roads (and there are no roads across the bridge). I also noticed that immediately after crossing the bridge there is another trail that splits from the Kohechi. It isn't a very long trail (perhaps several km), but perhaps it has some difficult terrain?

View attachment 418424

https://www.alltrails.com/explore/t...bridge?mobileMap=false&ref=sidebar-static-map

I'm reposting the map image from my post a few pages ago. I believe that she might have gone on the dotted trail that heads off to the right, and then north, of the green trail (i.e. the Kohechi trail). This might be the area of 'confusion' around the trailhead. I'm not certain though.

That side trail looks like it is approximately 2km. So out and back is 4km. What if the trail runners and the Australian had passed the junction by the time Pattie found her way back to the main trail? If she continued on the original intended route, she would have been heading downhill after any other hikers and she would have hit the road to Totsukawa after other hikers, and possibly in the dark. I'm back to not know where she might have gone missing.