Found Deceased JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[Interested_But_Confused]

Pattie had twice hiked the Camino de Santiago in Spain, and part of the Shikoku trail in Japan.

The Camino de Santiago is a walk in the park (albeit a long one) in comparison to the Kohechi trail. The Kohechi trail is 'a totally different league' according to someone who walked both. (I read this on a camino forum.)

IMO Patrtie could be overdoing it.

I've had a thought, but I don't want to cast any aspersions on Pattie's honesty.

To prove you have completed your pilgrimage you have to collect stamps along the trail. Most sections of the trail have the stamps located on the trail. You can't cheat. If you don't walk the trail you can't get the stamp.

But the Miura-toge Pass doesn't appear to have stamps to collect on the trail; you collect your stamp after you reach Totsukawa Onsen. That means you could collect a stamp to say you walked the trail even if you didn't.

The image I posted earlier showing where you leave Route 733 towards the trailhead (Link) is also a BUS STOP. I've been looking for the bus schedule but so far haven't been able to find it.

What if Pattie was never planning to walk the trail that day, and something instead happened when she was trying to use public transport or hitchhike?

 

[otto]

On the link I posted earlier the Minshuku Mandokoro guesthouse is where Pattie stayed the night before she went missing. The Kohechi Funawata Bridge leads to the trailhead.

The description of "multiple white banners reading "Kohechi Trail" that were hung from trees on a path directly across from the actual Kohechi Route" sounds very much like the 2.5km trail that leads back to the road. Even if Pattie went down that trail it doesn't sound like she would have gotten lost. It's a 30 minute walk back to the same road she started on.

Pattie was planning to stay at a guesthouse in Totsukawa Onsen on the evening she went missing. (Link)

Thank you! This?

 

[bettyboop]

Pattie had twice hiked the Camino de Santiago in Spain, and part of the Shikoku trail in Japan.

The Camino de Santiago is a walk in the park (albeit a long one) in comparison to the Kohechi trail. The Kohechi trail is 'a totally different league' according to someone who walked both. (I read this on a camino forum.)

IMO Patrtie could be overdoing it.



Otto, do read the thread.
As far as we know, no one saw her after her host had walked her towards the trail head.

I just wanted to say I totally agree on the fact that she might be overdoing it. I'm 61 and although I am a lazy couch potato, I do occasionally take walks, but NOTHING on this scale. I also have a lot of health problems, so this seems overwhelming to me. I hope she was in good physical health, as well as mental health , to take on something such as this, in a foreign country and on her own. That is a lot for any one of any age. JMO MOO and hoping for a miracle.

 

[otto]

Otto, do read the thread.
As far as we know, no one saw her after her host had walked her towards the trail head.

I thought she would be found quickly. I didn't think she would be found alive.

Does this look right? The trail is orange. The pin is guesthouse 2?

OpenTopoMap - Topographische Karten aus OpenStreetMap

direkt zur Karte...

opentopomap.org

 

[Snoopster]

I thought she would be found quickly. I didn't think she would be found alive.

Does this look right? The trail is orange. The pin is guesthouse 2?

View attachment 422393

OpenTopoMap - Topographische Karten aus OpenStreetMap

direkt zur Karte...

opentopomap.org

No Otto. The route you keep mapping is the road route....not the trail. (Although the trail does eventually reconnect with the road.) Your pin for the 2nd guesthouse looks a bit off. That is the center of town, but he actual guesthouse is further to the west (i.e. left).

I posted a map of the route earlier and I was trying to multi-quote that post here but failed. I'll add some info in as an edit here in a minute.

ETA:
Here is a map of the start of the trail (source: AllTrails) marked in green. The Mandokoro guesthouse is in the big fat 'peninsula' sticking down on the left of the map and on the north side of the river.

https://www.alltrails.com/explore/t...bridge?mobileMap=false&ref=sidebar-static-map

Unfortunately the trail does not show up on google maps.

Edit #2:

Here is google maps for context:
It shows the correct start and finish and also the "blue" road route that you found on google maps. Instead, the actual trail goes WestSouthWest out of the first town toward the green 'tourist site' market' and then generally south to Kawai Shrine and hooks up with route 425 (I don't know the exact spot). The trail then follows route 425 into Totsukawa.

 

[acutename]

I've had a thought, but I don't want to cast any aspersions on Pattie's honesty.

To prove you have completed your pilgrimage you have to collect stamps along the trail. Most sections of the trail have the stamps located on the trail. You can't cheat. If you don't walk the trail you can't get the stamp.

But the Miura-toge Pass doesn't appear to have stamps to collect on the trail; you collect your stamp after you reach Totsukawa Onsen. That means you could collect a stamp to say you walked the trail even if you didn't.

The image I posted earlier showing where you leave Route 733 towards the trailhead (Link) is also a BUS STOP. I've been looking for the bus schedule but so far haven't been able to find it.

What if Pattie was never planning to walk the trail that day, and something instead happened when she was trying to use public transport or hitchhike?

thought that looked like a bus stop too... but if she actually got on a bus, or even just was at the stop, wouldn't the driver or another passenger remember her?

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

thought that looked like a bus stop too... but if she actually got on a bus, or even just was at the stop, wouldn't the driver or another passenger remember her?

You'd think so. But it also doesn't sound like Pattie's disappearance really made the news in Japan, so how many people who passed through the area even know she's missing?

 

[realanastasia]

Given the excellent map analysis above, I am wondering if there is a possibility that Pattie might’ve ventured off the trail to the roadway for some reason (maybe injury, maybe hoping for better cell phone reception, maybe bathroom emergency, etc.) and been struck by a vehicle? Hoping her family, Japanese law enforcement, and SAR folks have already checked all the areas (shoulders, ditches, etc.) adjacent to the vehicular roadway(s) which may be located nearby the hiking trail.

 

[otto]

No Otto. The route you keep mapping is the road route....not the trail. (Although the trail does eventually reconnect with the road.) Your pin for the 2nd guesthouse looks a bit off. That is the center of town, but he actual guesthouse is further to the west (i.e. left).

I posted a map of the route earlier and I was trying to multi-quote that post here but failed. I'll add some info in as an edit here in a minute.

ETA:
Here is a map of the start of the trail (source: AllTrails) marked in green. The Mandokoro guesthouse is in the big fat 'peninsula' sticking down on the left of the map and on the north side of the river.
https://www.alltrails.com/explore/t...bridge?mobileMap=false&ref=sidebar-static-map

Unfortunately the trail does not show up on google maps.

Edit #2:

Here is google maps for context:
It shows the correct start and finish and also the "blue" road route that you found on google maps. Instead, the actual trail goes WestSouthWest out of the first town toward the green 'tourist site' market' and then generally south to Kawai Shrine and hooks up with route 425 (I don't know the exact spot). The trail then follows route 425 into Totsukawa.

Is the bridge the trailhead? Circled red? She might have gone North instead of East, or has that been ruled out? Were the confusing signs at the trailhead?

I apologize for not reading all pages, but when I first saw this in the news, I did not think that she was involuntarily missing. Now I think she is.

I'm curious about where she was in the 2 hours after she was last seen. I would like to have a closer look at the terrain.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

If Pattie never started down the trail, and if she didn't take a bus, I wonder if it's possible that she still intended to walk to Totsukawa Onsen, but could have taken the road route along the 733 and 168. It would have been 30km rather than 18km over the mountains, but it's a comparatively flat and easy walk and should still take 7-10 hours. Of course she'd have been seen just like if she got on a bus, which makes it unlikely.

The complete lack of sightings does make it most likely Pattie was on the trail. But she also wasn't seen on the trail, and there's no sign of her ever having been on it.

It really does feel like she disappeared into thin air, which is obviously impossible.

 

[Snoopster]

Is the bridge the trailhead? Circled red? She might have gone North instead of East, or has that been ruled out? Were the confusing signs at the trailhead?

I apologize for not reading all pages, but when I first saw this in the news, I did not think that she was involuntarily missing. Now I think she is.

I'm curious about where she was in the 2 hours after she was last seen. I would like to have a closer look at the terrain.

No. Your red circle is WAY too far to the NE. The trailhead is much, much closer to the guesthouse.In the map below I show approximately where the suspension bridge is to the trail and the general direction it heads, climbing to the Miura pass and continuing on to the 'green walking man' symbol. Your red circle was way over where the river gets really wide and splits...that's miles away.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

To add to what @Snoopster said, and using the OpenTopoMap link that @otto posted, I've marked out these maps:




The first image is Miura-guchi village where Pattie set out from. Circled in red is the guesthouse, circled in blue is the bridge and trailhead. They're only 0.7km apart. The blue dots are the short trail that leads back to the road after about 2km. The red dots are the trail Pattie was supposed to be following through the mountains.

The second image is of the entire Miura-toge Pass trail from Miura-guchi village to Totsukawa Onsen. The same colors are used as in the first image. The green dot is Totsukawa Onsen.

I hope that clears up any confusion.

 

[annpats]

The complete lack of sightings does make it most likely Pattie was on the trail. But she also wasn't seen on the trail, and there's no sign of her ever having been on it.

I only think she wasn't seen on the trail due to the sheer lack of visitors it gets.

The 4 people who were there that day (the Australian hiker and the 3 trail runners) didn't see her at all, so she must've disappeared early on in the first couple of hours.

Sadly, yes, there is no sign of her having been on the trail, any such signs would have been abandoned clothing or a bag....but they obviously stayed with her.

No signs doesn't mean she wasn't there.

Although the sniffer dogs didn't detect anything either, which I found surprising.

I think Pattie was a person with integrity, and definitely wouldn't cut the trail to take a bus to the end and get her stamp.

I also don't think she was the type to head too far into the woods exploring off the trail. If she left for a bathroom break, then I don't think the woods are so dense she wouldn't find her way back. It's not the Appalachian trail here. I don't think she'd have wandered too far, even for a bathroom break.

However, would she have needed to attend a call of nature so early on after leaving the guesthouse? We know whatever happened to Pattie, happened in the first couple of hours, otherwise the Australian hiker would have over-taken her on the trail, he was only 1-2 hours behind, I believe.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I only think she wasn't seen on the trail due to the sheer lack of visitors it gets.

The 4 people who were there that day (the Australian hiker and the 3 trail runners) didn't see her at all, so she must've disappeared early on in the first couple of hours.

Sadly, yes, there is no sign of her having been on the trail, any such signs would have been abandoned clothing or a bag....but they obviously stayed with her.

No signs doesn't mean she wasn't there.

Although the sniffer dogs didn't detect anything either, which I found surprising.

I think Pattie was a person with integrity, and definitely wouldn't cut the trail to take a bus to the end and get her stamp.

I also don't think she was the type to head too far into the woods exploring off the trail. If she left for a bathroom break, then I don't think the woods are so dense she wouldn't find her way back. It's not the Appalachian trail here. I don't think she'd have wandered too far, even for a bathroom break.

However, would she have needed to attend a call of nature so early on after leaving the guesthouse? We know whatever happened to Pattie, happened in the first couple of hours, otherwise the Australian hiker would have over-taken her on the trail, he was only 1-2 hours behind, I believe.

I believe it has been said that based on Pattie's 7:00am start time, the trail runners would have been expected to pass Pattie as she was still ascending the mountain. That would be within 2-3 hours of her start time and only 3-4km into the 18km trek. So yes, if something happened on the trail it must have happened early. I'm not sure the Australian man would have caught Pattie when she had a two hour head-start, but in any case he didn't see her--nor any signs such as dropped belongings.

If Pattie went missing from the trail, I think we can assume her belongings went with her, and that she went off into the mountains/forest for some reason. There's nowhere else to go on that portion of the trail! But the how and the why of it is still a complete mystery.

When I suggested Pattie could have taken a bus (or hitchhiked) it wasn't intended as a slight on her integrity, and I apologize if it sounded like one. I'd just been looking at the hikes Pattie would have done on the previous two days (link to my post) and it made me realize how difficult and exhausting those hikes must have been. I found it interesting that the Miura-toge Pass is one of very few sections of the trail where you can get your stamp without actually walking the trail, but of course that doesn't mean Pattie would have done it; it's just another of the many (far too many) possibilities.

The Kohechi Trail is split into four sections and on the day Pattie went missing she was on the third section. It's apparently quite common for pilgrims to only walk the final section from Totsukawa Onsen to Kumano Hongu Taisha, missing out the first three sections completely; it has been said that Pattie only decided to walk the first three sections at the last minute, because she was running ahead of schedule, so I'm presuming her original intention was also to only walk the final section.

If the trail turned out to be more tiring or difficult than Pattie anticipated, is it possible she decided not to walk the third section after all? Pattie was planning to meet with friends in Totsukawa Onsen on the night she went missing, so one way or another she had to get there.

I also wonder how common it is for pilgrims to run ahead of schedule on these trails. Most of the trails are split into clear day-by-day sections with pre-booked guesthouses at each end. You should be able to plan out exactly where you'll be on any given day. It's considered rude in Japan to walk up to a guesthouse without booking a room in advance, so it's unlikely Pattie would have veered too far off her schedule.

 

[Cedars]

It really does feel like she disappeared into thin air, which is obviously impossible.

Not entirely impossible, IMO, if you consider what happens when someone stumbles a little near the edge of a drop off. All it might take is a loose shoelace, an unbalanced backpack, a moment of dizziness: Something that has no consequence when on flat ground.

JMO

 

[slowpoke]

Is there any way to know if it was a foggy morning when Pattie headed out? I don’t recall reading anything saying so.

I was just thinking, if there was heavy fog as she walked looking for the Kohechi trailhead, it’s easier to imagine her missing it due to low visibility.

(For example, if she was confused as to which pathway to take to reach the Funato bridge you'd think she could at least see the bridge in the distance, so she’d know which way to head. If fog is thick enough, it can be hard to see ahead, as we all know—which can be disorienting.)

Just grasping. MOO

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Not entirely impossible, IMO, if you consider what happens when someone stumbles a little near the edge of a drop off. All it might take is a loose shoelace, an unbalanced backpack, a moment of dizziness: Something that has no consequence when on flat ground.

JMO

True, and if Pattie had disappeared on the previous day I could absolutely believe this. Check out this image taken from the Official Guide Book for the Obako-toge Peak that Pattie would have walked the day before:

It's a lethal drop, but there doesn't appear to be anything quite that perilous on the Miura-toge Pass. Obako-toge has multiple warnings about dangerous narrow trails and sheer cliffs whilst Miura-toge doesn't have any warnings at all.

 

[vls12345]

I am sure this has been mentioned but was the trail she walked the previous day carefully checked? Could she have (accidentally or purposefully) have gone back the way she came?

 

[Cedars]

True, and if Pattie had disappeared on the previous day I could absolutely believe this. Check out this image taken from the Official Guide Book for the Obako-toge Peak that Pattie would have walked the day before:

View attachment 422556

It's a lethal drop, but there doesn't appear to be anything quite that perilous on the Miura-toge Pass. Obako-toge has multiple warnings about dangerous narrow trails and sheer cliffs whilst Miura-toge doesn't have any warnings at all.

Yeah, I wasn't thinking of the actual trail, they're not made along dangerous sheer drops like that.

I was thinking more that people are attracted to potential viewpoints, or shortcuts, or water, and go off trail for that reason, and a fall is why they never make it back to the trail. It is pretty regularly what has happened to a missing hiker, in cases I've followed.

JMO

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I am sure this has been mentioned but was the trail she walked the previous day carefully checked? Could she have (accidentally or purposefully) have gone back the way she came?

Not accidentally, I'm near 100% sure. From the guesthouse the previous day's hike is in the completely opposite direction. Blue is section 2 (Obako) and red is section 3 (Miura):