Let's talk about the letters

[LINative13]

I wouldnt belive a word that snake says. He lies as much as CPH.

 

[fred&edna]

I wouldnt belive a word that snake says. He lies as much as CPH.

I concur.

And... where's that rumor info? Wasn't there s'pose to be "news" today of something?

 

[mysterymom7]

I concur.

And... where's that rumor info? Wasn't there s'pose to be "news" today of something?

"Patience, Daniel San."

 

[Justiceforever]

"Patience, Daniel San."

Couldn't you just post it in the Rumor Mill Thread for now?? Pwetty pweeze?

 

[inspctrgadget]

Inspector, I tend to believe that there is some order in the universe and that events that happen are related in some way. I also believe in mathematical probabilities.


You or I for an example. We may end up dead tomorrow as a result of an accident. That is life. No big issue. But if you called 911 today and said somebody is trying to kill you, what is the chance you would die by an accident the next day? The probability becomes astronomical. Not many people who call 911 in fear for their lives, dies by an accident the next day.

You can say SG died by accident, there was no foul play involved and her death has nothing to do with the LISK. But real life is not like that.

Here is the statistical proof, in the hundreds of years that records have been kept for Oak Beach, how many people have died in marsh land area? Was SG the first and only? I think so.

If SG died climbing Mount Everest, that would be a tragedy, but understandable because 200 others have died in that mountain. How many people have died in the Oak Beach marsh? I believe the number is zero prior to SG.

So look at it statistically, a woman calls 911 in fear for here life, and her body is found where nobody else has died of natural causes before. What is the probability she died of natural causes?

You can accuse us of having 'confirmation bias' but the reality is as it appears.

SG called 911 in fear for her life; she died, her body was found where nobody else has died, it could have been an accident, but not likely.

If you ask a Vegas bookmaker, what are the odds that SG died naturally, he would be happy to take your money.

MOO

I respectfully disagree. You're basically proving my point. I would suggest some research on coincidences in probability theory.

The likelihood that she died of accidental causes is actually quite high. I believe that you and other subscribers to the SG theory have the type of tunnel vision that fails to consider alternate theories.

Consider this:

How many people do we need in a room to guarantee a 50 percent chance of at least one birthday match? The answer is 23.

If we want a 50 percent chance of finding two people born within one day of each other, we only need 14 people, and if we are looking for birthdays a week apart, the magic number is 7.

You state that you believe in some order in the universe, and I think inherent in that statement is that you discount coincidence and randomness as part of the universe. This is not the case.

Consider this: 3 of our first 5 presidents died on July 4th. Why? I would suggest that this was random.

How about these coincidences?
http://www.school-for-champions.com/history/lincolnjfk.htm

Also, consider:

"September 11 (9/11) for instance. 911 is the number used for emergency cases. The twin towers looked like the number 11. So perhaps all the things that happened had something to do with the number 11. Let us look at a few of these. First: 9 + 1 + 1 = 11, the first flight to hit the twin towers was flight 11 with 92 people on board, 9 + 2 = 11. September 11 is the 254th day of the year 2 + 5 + 4 = 11 (also 365 – 254 = 111), there are 11 letters each in “New York City”, “Afghanistan”, “the Pentagon”, and “George W. Bush”. Also, New York was the 11th state admitted to the union, 119 (1 + 1 + 9 = 11) is the area code to both Iraq and Iran and flight 77 that crashed in Pennsylvania had 65 people on board, 6 + 5 = 11. Finally, recall the March 11 (2004) attack in Spain. There are exactly 911 days between this and the September 11 (2001) attack. These are all interesting, but do they mean anything?"

The alternate theory that you haven't considered is:

- Shannan called 911 in some mental state of medication/psychologically-related medical distress, and she ran into dark swamp and died of hypothermia or drowning after getting hopelessly lost.

- Some guy called her mother in the days following her disappearance (CPH) to offer his assistance. He got her number because he happened into two people looking for her, her driver and her pimp/BF.

- SG's mother, desperate to have police focus on her theory, said some things to police and then publicly about this guy's phone call in an effort to put additional pressure on police to investigate her theory.

- Given that all this happened in a remote location, there was a fairly high probability that other bodies would be discovered in the area, which they were. Note that 900,000 people go missing each year in the U.S. Sure not all go missing because of death, but a large number do. Where are all the bodies? You say that nobody was ever found in the area of OB prior? How about 10 different victims found along a 10-15 mile stretch of that road? In retrospect, it does not seem uncommon at all that this area would be used as a dumping ground for a serial killer.


I'd also note that police have in fact said that they believe Shannan's death was an accident, not a homicide.

So I go back to my request. Consider for a minute that you're wrong, and I'm right. How would you approach the case of the Long Island Serial Killer, starting with the little evidence that we have related to the GB4, Manorville and the other victims that were clearly homicides?

 

[WINDSOR]

I respectfully disagree. You're basically proving my point. I would suggest some research on coincidences in probability theory.

The likelihood that she died of accidental causes is actually quite high. I believe that you and other subscribers to the SG theory have the type of tunnel vision that fails to consider alternate theories.

Consider this:

How many people do we need in a room to guarantee a 50 percent chance of at least one birthday match? The answer is 23.

If we want a 50 percent chance of finding two people born within one day of each other, we only need 14 people, and if we are looking for birthdays a week apart, the magic number is 7.

You state that you believe in some order in the universe, and I think inherent in that statement is that you discount coincidence and randomness as part of the universe. This is not the case.

Since there is only 365 days in a year (plus leap year) there is a finite number of birth dates. The fact there is a probability of an event taking place does not mean it will or will not. Flipping a coin has a 50-50 of being heads, but that does not mean it will be heads for sure the next time.

Consider this: 3 of our first 5 presidents died on July 4th. Why? I would suggest that this was random.

Most people die on or near a date that is significant to them in their lives.
The first five presidents were 18 years or older when the Declaration of Independence was signed. July 4 was a very significant day in their lives.



How about these coincidences?
http://www.school-for-champions.com/...lincolnjfk.htm

Also, consider:

"September 11 (9/11) for instance. 911 is the number used for emergency cases. The twin towers looked like the number 11. So perhaps all the things that happened had something to do with the number 11. Let us look at a few of these. First: 9 + 1 + 1 = 11, the first flight to hit the twin towers was flight 11 with 92 people on board, 9 + 2 = 11. September 11 is the 254th day of the year 2 + 5 + 4 = 11 (also 365 – 254 = 111), there are 11 letters each in “New York City”, “Afghanistan”, “the Pentagon”, and “George W. Bush”. Also, New York was the 11th state admitted to the union, 119 (1 + 1 + 9 = 11) is the area code to both Iraq and Iran and flight 77 that crashed in Pennsylvania had 65 people on board, 6 + 5 = 11. Finally, recall the March 11 (2004) attack in Spain. There are exactly 911 days between this and the September 11 (2001) attack. These are all interesting, but do they mean anything?"

The alternate theory that you haven't considered is:

- Shannan called 911 in some mental state of medication/psychologically-related medical distress, and she ran into dark swamp and died of hypothermia or drowning after getting hopelessly lost.

- Some guy called her mother in the days following her disappearance (CPH) to offer his assistance. He got her number because he happened into two people looking for her, her driver and her pimp/BF. Big difference between offering assistance and saying you treated her

- SG's mother, desperate to have police focus on her theory, said some things to police and then publicly about this guy's phone call in an effort to put additional pressure on police to investigate her theory.

- Given that all this happened in a remote location, there was a fairly high probability that other bodies would be discovered in the area, which they were. Note that 900,000 people go missing each year in the U.S. Sure not all go missing because of death, but a large number do. Where are all the bodies? You say that nobody was ever found in the area of OB prior? How about 10 different victims found along a 10-15 mile stretch of that road? In retrospect, it does not seem uncommon at all that this area would be used as a dumping ground for a serial killer.


I'd also note that police have in fact said that they believe Shannan's death was an accident, not a homicide. Well in that case it must be true NOT!

So I go back to my request. Consider for a minute that you're wrong, and I'm right. How would you approach the case of the Long Island Serial Killer, starting with the little evidence that we have related to the GB4, Manorville and the other victims that were clearly homicides?

Okay I agree I may be wrong about SG's death but that has yet to be proven. I also am not sure there is linkage between SG's death and the other bodies found by the highway. Time will reveal more

MOO

 

[inspctrgadget]

Most people die on or near a date that is significant to them in their lives.

Respectfully, that's false. The fact is that people do in fact die on certain dates, and that sometimes those dates happen to be on or near dates that may be significant in their lives. Some people may see this as being significant. It is not. It is coincidence. Those that choose to use anecdotal evidence to suggest otherwise are mistaken. I would challenge you to find any reputable study that shows a higher incidence of people dying on "significant" dates in their lives. You won't.

 

[inspctrgadget]

Big difference between offering assistance and saying you treated her

You mean SG's mom "said" that he "said" that. What if he never said that? What if he said something to the effect of "maybe she's being treated at a rehab facility and be home in the morning?" And this was recalled incorrectly by Mari, who understandably was under s great deal of stress. Listen, if she lied, I can't blame her. She was just trying to do what she thought was right at the time. If she remembered CPH's statements wildly incorrectly, I can't blame her, because of the incredible stress. I'd like to believe her, but its just not credible given the rest of the information we have.

In a criminal investigation, a common mistake is to start with your personal suspicion about a certain "suspect" and try and find evidence to support your theory. Chances are, you'll find it. I mean, I could look at my grandma long enough and have her pinned as the SK. I know we've done this a lot here at Websleuths. Rather, what you want to do is start with the evidence and find the perp. Unfortunately, in this case, the only evidence we have is:

- burlap
- unique locations (Manorville & Cedar Beach, NYC)
- phone calls to MB's sister
- certain "pings" from cellphones

Obviously the police may have more electronic or other evidence, which hopefully one day soon will lead to an arrest.

 

[truthspider]

I'd like to believe her, but its just not credible given the rest of the information we have.

"just not credible" ?

You have absolutely no reason or evidence to suggest MG isn't credible and doing so is very offensive. On the other hand we have all seen the overwhelming evidence that illustrates CPH's history of pathological lying.

CPH's credibility is completely shot and has been since the mid 90's. There are only 2 people who know what was said during those calls, MG and CPH. You have shown us all exactly how biased you are by trying to discredit MG when CPH is a bankrupt, confirmed pathological lying fraud. Your time of taking poor people for fools has ended.

Good day sir.
:liar:

 

[mysterymom7]

I respectfully disagree. You're basically proving my point. I would suggest some research on coincidences in probability theory.

The likelihood that she died of accidental causes is actually quite high. I believe that you and other subscribers to the SG theory have the type of tunnel vision that fails to consider alternate theories.

Consider this:

How many people do we need in a room to guarantee a 50 percent chance of at least one birthday match? The answer is 23.

If we want a 50 percent chance of finding two people born within one day of each other, we only need 14 people, and if we are looking for birthdays a week apart, the magic number is 7.

You state that you believe in some order in the universe, and I think inherent in that statement is that you discount coincidence and randomness as part of the universe. This is not the case.

Consider this: 3 of our first 5 presidents died on July 4th. Why? I would suggest that this was random.

How about these coincidences?
http://www.school-for-champions.com/history/lincolnjfk.htm

Also, consider:

"September 11 (9/11) for instance. 911 is the number used for emergency cases. The twin towers looked like the number 11. So perhaps all the things that happened had something to do with the number 11. Let us look at a few of these. First: 9 + 1 + 1 = 11, the first flight to hit the twin towers was flight 11 with 92 people on board, 9 + 2 = 11. September 11 is the 254th day of the year 2 + 5 + 4 = 11 (also 365 – 254 = 111), there are 11 letters each in “New York City”, “Afghanistan”, “the Pentagon”, and “George W. Bush”. Also, New York was the 11th state admitted to the union, 119 (1 + 1 + 9 = 11) is the area code to both Iraq and Iran and flight 77 that crashed in Pennsylvania had 65 people on board, 6 + 5 = 11. Finally, recall the March 11 (2004) attack in Spain. There are exactly 911 days between this and the September 11 (2001) attack. These are all interesting, but do they mean anything?"

The alternate theory that you haven't considered is:

- Shannan called 911 in some mental state of medication/psychologically-related medical distress, and she ran into dark swamp and died of hypothermia or drowning after getting hopelessly lost.

- Some guy called her mother in the days following her disappearance (CPH) to offer his assistance. He got her number because he happened into two people looking for her, her driver and her pimp/BF.

- SG's mother, desperate to have police focus on her theory, said some things to police and then publicly about this guy's phone call in an effort to put additional pressure on police to investigate her theory.

- Given that all this happened in a remote location, there was a fairly high probability that other bodies would be discovered in the area, which they were. Note that 900,000 people go missing each year in the U.S. Sure not all go missing because of death, but a large number do. Where are all the bodies? You say that nobody was ever found in the area of OB prior? How about 10 different victims found along a 10-15 mile stretch of that road? In retrospect, it does not seem uncommon at all that this area would be used as a dumping ground for a serial killer.


I'd also note that police have in fact said that they believe Shannan's death was an accident, not a homicide.

So I go back to my request. Consider for a minute that you're wrong, and I'm right. How would you approach the case of the Long Island Serial Killer, starting with the little evidence that we have related to the GB4, Manorville and the other victims that were clearly homicides?

The numbers thing was very interesting.

I can only speak for myself... When I came to this case, I had no preconceived notions at all.

You say to take SG out of the mix, and see the conclusions you come to. How 'bout trying the same with the other victims and only think about SG's case.

There was a case in FL of a 28 yr old jogger who was found dismembered on the side of the road. The press report from the police states, "We believe an alligator stalked her, and dismembered her." If you know anything about alligators, they don't run quickly on land, and it would be rare that an alligator would hunt a person down. If she were jogging, it would probably be difficult for an alligator to even catch up to her in the first place.

I don't buy that theory in FL, just as I don't buy the theory of SG accidentally drowning in ankle deep water knowing how difficult it is to drown when a person is able to lift his/her head. In both cases, the question is then asked, "Why lie?"

 

[Justiceforever]

Truthspider... I don't know which of your avatars creep me out more this one or the last one!! It should be easy to say as I hate spiders. In this instance I think I prefer the spiders!

 

[Justiceforever]

"just not credible" ?

You have absolutely no reason or evidence to suggest MG isn't credible and doing so is very offensive. On the other hand we have all seen the overwhelming evidence that illustrates CPH's history of pathological lying.

CPH's credibility is completely shot and has been since the mid 90's. There are only 2 people who know what was said during those calls, MG and CPH. You have shown us all exactly how bias you are by trying to discredit MG when CPH is a bankrupt confirmed pathological lying fraud. Your time of taking poor people for fools has ended.

Good day sir.
:liar:

Truthspider is right. What evidence do you have that makes MG not credible? There is plenty of evidence that CPH is NOT credible. If I were on a jury I would take her word over his ANY day. Unless you have evidence that MG is a liar or slow to understand what is being said to her in times of stress than you have no reason to doubt her account of the phone call. This whole idea that she misunderstood what was being said because she was under stress (I think) is a load of crap!

 

[Justiceforever]

Here is a mother who like any mother would be listening VERY closely to what was being said about her missing daughter. I would think. As far as her trying to further her own theory. I doubt that any mother would want ANYTHING but the truth about what happened to her daughter even if it disproved her own theory! JMHO

 

[Justiceforever]

If (God forbid) My child died inexplicably. I would much rather believe they drowned than were murdered! I don't think I would be so insistent on further investigation unless I had good reason to believe that they didn't drown. JMOO

 

[LINative13]

If I were a mother of someone who died unexplicably (God forbid) I think I would much prefer to believe she drowned than was killed by a homicidal serial killer. I wouldn't be insisting on further investigation unless I had good reason to believe otherwise! JMO

I do not think MG is the pick of the litter either. We all have skeletons in the closet.

 

[Seajay]

And we have to remember that it was VERY early in the disappearance. Mari had no reason to believe her daughter met with foul play so it would be hard for her to come up with any theory. She didn't know CHP for Adam, she had no idea he was a doctor or what type of doctor unless he had called her and TOLD her. She had no idea her daughter was laying dead behind CHP's house, to be found 18 months later, after 10 other bodies had been found under the guise of "looking for Shannan."

So what possible motive could she have had this early on for making up this phone call or the contents of it???

 

[Seajay]

I do not think MG is the pick of the litter either. We all have skeletons in the closet.

Yeh, we do have that little misrepresentation about her daughter's body being held by the ME, don't we???

 

[Justiceforever]

PB! You're back! Nice to see you again sir!

 

[To Kill a Mockingbird]

All this talk about CVS and prescriptions is far off base.

For starters, there is zero proof that CPH ever met SG. There were no prescriptions written by CPH for SG. If there were, the investigators could easily know this without even stepping foot or calling CVS or any pharmacy because since around 2005 all of the prescription pads (or software that prints them) are regulated and distributed by New York State. They include bar codes and serial numbers.

Likewise, If CPH was involved in some sort of prescription drug ring he would have been outed by now because there is an easy electronic trail for the investigators to follow.

As far as the run to CVS, let's get the facts straight. There was never actually any mention by anyone of CVS. We only know of CVS of West Islip because of some very short entries on SG's cell phone records provided by her mom to the public to see. Pak did say that SG hung up on him because he refused to drive to a drug store to purchase playing cards & personal lubricant. We can assume she was thinking he could go to CVS just as we can assume that maybe she only called CVS to find out if they were open that late at night/early morning. But that's all we can do is assume.

Sample of an official NYs prescription;

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT SLUG?

<modsnip>

there is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT PROOF that cph met shannan.
oh yes
right out of the horses mouth.

<modsnip>

<modsnip> wrong on the good doc meeting shannan.

<modsnip> the good doc has shoved his foot in his own mouth




:great::great::great::great::great:

 

[Justiceforever]

To kill a mockingbird...is there? Did he meet SG before? What proof? Are you referring to his statement that he did or is there additional proof?