Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #11

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  • #701
  • #702
Not that easy, DLK. When alarm sounds, you can count on every police car and every police station to be informed in real time. Nothing an abductor can control and he'll expect erratic behavior by police. No abductor will feel very safe driving anywhere after those crucial 30min (If I wrote a detective story about abduction I wouldn't imagine it perfect a criminal driving more than half an hour). IMHO.

ETA: That's more likely 1h30min. as he'd more probably use as many secondary roads as possible especially to avoid Silves and Algoz (both almost a must on Google itinerary after excluding highways).
I strongly disagree. Following an alert, Police don't start randomly pulling people over half an hour or more away from the scene. The first thing they do is attend the scene, gather the facts, then carry out a local search. Like I said, the further away you are, the better really. Not saying CB did take her to Foral, but don't think you can discount it on the basis of distance. Also, I don't know where you are getting 1h30 minute drive from? It's a 46 minute drive from PDL and don't see any reason for him to take side roads, police don't set up road blocks/checks on main roads all over the country like that following a report of a missing person.
 
  • #703
I strongly disagree. Following an alert, Police don't start randomly pulling people over half an hour or more away from the scene. The first thing they do is attend the scene, gather the facts, then carry out a local search. Like I said, the further away you are, the better really. Not saying CB did take her to Foral, but don't think you can discount it on the basis of distance. Also, I don't know where you are getting 1h30 minute drive from? It's a 46 minute drive from PDL and don't see any reason for him to take side roads, police don't set up road blocks/checks on main roads all over the country like that following a report of a missing person.

Of course, DLK. But perhaps we should try to think from an abductor's point of view. I want to know where he (or they) should have taken MM to in fact and not the most palatable destination.
 
  • #704
Foral is 1h away from PDL avoiding highways. Not an ideal destination, which should be less than 30min. IMO...
Why would he avoid the highway?
Thirty mins over the highway
 
  • #705
Why would he avoid the highway?
Thirty mins over the highway

Because highways are not only closed, they have much more surveillance, including CCTV.
 
  • #706
Because highways are not only closed, they have much more surveillance, including CCTV.
What do you mean closed?
Was there cctv in 2007?
 
  • #707
Of course, DLK. But perhaps we should try to think from an abductor's point of view. I want to know where he (or they) should have taken MM to in fact and not the most palatable destination.
I am thinking of his point of view. You seem to be taking an arbitrary distance of 30 minutes away and I don't really know where you get that number from. The most logical place to take her is somewhere he knows is safe and where he's unlikley to be disturbed. It needs to be away from the immediate scene and likely search area, but not too far. And I don't think a 45 minute drive to Foral is too far. That's all I'm saying.
 
  • #708
What do you mean closed?
Was there cctv in 2007?

European highways are closed. That means in case police decides to check every single car there's no way you can u-turn or escape anywhere. That's unlike American highways. I don't know about CCTV in 2007, but many were shown especially about MM sightings. So they were there and I don't think CB would have detailed info on that.
 
  • #709
I am thinking of his point of view. You seem to be taking an arbitrary distance of 30 minutes away and I don't really know where you get that number from. The most logical place to take her is somewhere he knows is safe and where he's unlikley to be disturbed. It needs to be away from the immediate scene and likely search area, but not too far. And I don't think a 45 minute drive to Foral is too far. That's all I'm saying.

I agree 45min. at most, but a safe route seems more likely 1h30min.
 
  • #710
  • #711
I agree 45min. at most, but a safe route seems more likely 1h30min.
It should take about 40mins from Luz to Silves avoiding the highway according to anwb routeplanner.
 
  • #712
European highways are closed. That means in case police decides to check every single car there's no way you can u-turn or escape anywhere. That's unlike American highways. I don't know about CCTV in 2007, but many were shown especially about MM sightings. So they were there and I don't think CB would have detailed info on that.
we have discussed cctv a couple of times before. portugal had no public cctv in 2007, so nothing on public roads. only cctv at private areas. like petrol stations. the grounds of apartments, hotels, etc.

ETA
the only cctv in the pj files, afaik is from inside the beach side restaurant
 
  • #713
OK, thanks, maybe a good idea.
I've looked: first mention of R is in thread #3 with a link to the Olive Press; Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #3
EXCLUSIVE: Footage of property where paedophile and suspect Christian Brueckner lived in the months after Madeleine McCann disappeared from Portugal - Olive Press News Spain
No mention of him being Italian.

Then there is a mention of a certain Roman in the files: P.J. POLICE FILES: CAROLYN KISH
Who does not bare the surname Scott. So this is another Roman? And where does the surname Scott come from?

In thread #9 there is mention of a surname "Scott". Where did that come from?
Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #9


Did LS say he was Italian? Do you have a link?
from the olive press story.
"
“They left behind needles, used syringes with a spoon and bricks of hashish,” recalled Silva
"
bricks (<<plural). do you leave that behind, if you are moving house in a leisurely, planned manner?
 
  • #714
we have discussed cctv a couple of times before. portugal had no public cctv in 2007, so nothing on public roads. only cctv at private areas. like petrol stations. the grounds of apartments, hotels, etc.

ETA
the only cctv in the pj files, afaik is from inside the beach side restaurant

That doesn't make a highway a likely route for a criminal under the circumstances, IMO.
 
  • #715
from the olive press story.
"
“They left behind needles, used syringes with a spoon and bricks of hashish,” recalled Silva
"
bricks (<<plural). do you leave that behind, if you are moving house in a leisurely, planned manner?
Yes I wondered that too. A brick of hashish in the UK generally refers to a 9-bar, not sure if they mean the same in this example. It means a 9 ounce bar of cannabis resin, often cultivated and manufactured in places like Morroco. They're not as potent as the grass form but more convenient to smuggle overseas due to higher density and they cost about 2 or 3 hundred a bar wholesale. Not a massive amount to leave behind if it was just a few bricks but strange why you'd leave it.
 
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  • #716
That doesn't make a highway a likely route for a criminal under the circumstances, IMO.
I personally don't see why it makes much of a difference. Police don't throw up road checks that quickly in real life. In the last thread you were saying CB was too stupid to mastermind this crime and now you think he's meticulous enough to avoid the highways in the highly unlikely event the police are going to throw up road checks there in that time window. Seems a bit contradictory.

In reality, the PJ didn't even turn up until about 2 hours after the disappearance was reported. They then gathered information and searched the local area. That's standard procedure. It wasn't for another 10 hours afterwards that any form of road checks were put in place.
 
  • #717
Yes I wondered that too. A brick of hashish in the UK generally refers to a 9-bar, not sure if they mean the same in this example. It means 9 ounce bar of cannabis resin, often cultivated and manufactured in places like Morroco. They're not as potent as the grass form but more convenient to smuggle overseas due to higher density and they cost about 2 or 3 hundred a bar. Not a massive amount to leave behind if it was just a few bricks but strange why you'd leave it.

Especially if you have big debts to pay. And AFAIK, in the UK and Ireland at least, these things aren’t usually paid for up front. You get it “on strap” until a certain date and hope you have it all sold by then. But then if it came from abroad, I guess that would be different.
 
  • #718
I personally don't see why it makes much of a difference. Police don't throw up road checks that quickly in real life. In the last thread you were saying CB was too stupid to mastermind this crime and now you think he's meticulous enough to avoid the highways in the highly unlikely event the police are going to throw up road checks there in that time window. Seems a bit contradictory.

In reality, the PJ didn't even turn up until about 2 hours after the disappearance was reported. They then gathered information and searched the local area. That's standard procedure. It wasn't for another 10 hours afterwards that any form of road checks were put in place.

And we have to remember CB’s distain for LE - he reportedly told people the Portuguese LE were “too stupid” to catch him. And it wasn’t his first rodio, he knew how they worked.
 
  • #719
I personally don't see why it makes much of a difference. Police don't throw up road checks that quickly in real life. In the last thread you were saying CB was too stupid to mastermind this crime and now you think he's meticulous enough to avoid the highways in the highly unlikely event the police are going to throw up road checks there in that time window. Seems a bit contradictory.

In reality, the PJ didn't even turn up until about 2 hours after the disappearance was reported. They then gathered information and searched the local area. That's standard procedure. It wasn't for another 10 hours afterwards that any form of road checks were put in place.

I still think he's too silly to have done it alone and I'm not that absolutely sure he did it. Are you? Of course I consider that hypothesis like any other likely hypothesis worth consideration. Avoiding highways is something too basic. He couldn't count on information we had after abduction.
 
  • #720
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