Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #21

[mrjitty]

Meaning?
You don't think CB was the person who removed MM from 5a and HCW is only looking at what happened after CB allegedly came into contact with her?
Or that it's irrelevant because they do have concrete evidence that CB murdered MM?
Interested to know your thoughts.

Well for example, abductions often have up to 3 crime scenes. Indeed it is usually the place where the body is dumped that is called the crime scene. So if he is able to link CB to a murder somehow, in the time after the 3rd, then all of the 5A folklore matters not much to his case.

That is what I believe he is working on.

 

[mrjitty]

In the oz podcast HCW does not know whether it was the PJ or SY or the BKA which interviewed the Irish family. But could it be that HCW being IMO prosecutor (not head of investigation) is insulated from all the mechanics of the investigation itself, and is told only the broad results?

I got the impression he simply has no interest in that stuff.

 

[mrjitty]

Maybe, but then again he seemed to know very little about the detail behind the signal from the mast, which you'd think would be very relevant to his case.

I think he was on the most part just being cautious not to give anything away. On the dogs for example, it wasn't that he didn't know anything about them, but he just said he would not comment on these investigations from the past.

I think the specific location of CB is not that important to him. Rather it is merely important to show he was in the locale, and discussing something of interest to the case.

 

[Newthoughts]

Well for example, abductions often have up to 3 crime scenes. Indeed it is usually the place where the body is dumped that is called the crime scene. So if he is able to link CB to a murder somehow, in the time after the 3rd, then all of the 5A folklore matters not much to his case.

That is what I believe he is working on.

I agree with your opinion that whatever HCW has isn't necessarily linked to what went on when MM was taken in 5A and that will form only a minor part of the case.

But, surely, at some point he will have to work backwards to that night? He will need to place CB somewhere near PdL? And I think that could be what FF can and will use. He only needs to knock Beyond all Reasonable Doubt

Just my opinions

 

[mrjitty]

I agree with your opinion that whatever HCW has isn't necessarily linked to what went on when MM was taken in 5A and that will form only a minor part of the case.

But, surely, at some point he will have to work backwards to that night? He will need to place CB somewhere near PdL? And I think that could be what FF can and will use. He only needs to knock Beyond all Reasonable Doubt

Just my opinions

Yes - i said that some weeks ago.

FF will use the "Some other dude did it" defence - in which case 5A is the perfect rabbit hole. I mean even JT identifying RM as the abductor is the kind of free gift that a defence seldom gets ....

HCW needs a magic bullet to short circuit all of that, IMO, otherwise it would be hard for the prosecution to prove that none of the other potential perps are a reasonable possibility, or add up to a reasonable possibility all together.

 

[Dlk79]

I think the specific location of CB is not that important to him. Rather it is merely important to show he was in the locale, and discussing something of interest to the case.

I think a specific location is very important. Certainly if whatever data they had, places him very close to the apartment, as opposed to a much larger radius. And despite HCW's vague answers to the specific questions asked, as the lead Prosecutor, you can bet he knows exactly how close (or to what area) they can currently place CB's phone relative to 5A.

But, revealing that information is not likley to help their investigation, it only helps CB by allowing him to tailor an alibi/explanation to suit. IMO, I think HCW was just being cautious not to reveal too much, on this and the other questions, rather than necessarily having no interest in those aspects of the investigation. Of course, you may be right, but couldn't say that was definitely the impression I had.

 

[redplanet]

I got the impression he simply has no interest in that stuff.

Does HCW actually work actively hour by hour in the CB investigation?

 

[redplanet]

I think a specific location is very important. Certainly if whatever data they had, places him very close to the apartment, as opposed to a much larger radius. And despite HCW's vague answers to the specific questions asked, as the lead Prosecutor, you can bet he knows exactly how close they can currently place CB's phone to 5A.

But, revealing that information is not likley to help their investigation, it only helps CB by allowing him to tailor an alibi/explanation to suit. IMO, I think HCW was just being cautious not to reveal too much, on this and the other questions, rather than necessarily having no interest in those aspects of the investigation. Of course, you may be right, but couldn't say that was definitely the impression I had.

 

[mrjitty]

I think a specific location is very important. Certainly if whatever data they had, places him very close to the apartment, as opposed to a much larger radius. And despite HCW's vague answers to the specific questions asked, as the lead Prosecutor, you can bet he knows exactly how close they can currently place CB's phone to 5A.

But, revealing that information is not likley to help their investigation, it only helps CB by allowing him to tailor an alibi/explanation to suit. IMO, I think HCW was just being cautious not to reveal too much, on this and the other questions, rather than necessarily having no interest in those aspects of the investigation. Of course, you may be right, but couldn't say that was definitely the impression I had.

As far as we know, the cell data doesn't contain enough information to establish location.

From the public disclosures there is no ping data. Only connections for calls/SMS. I believe there may be directional data. i.e Azimuth

To establish a position, we'd really need ping data from multiple towers, not just the vodafone tower connection - and we don't know if PJ have that info

 

[tedtink]

Well for example, abductions often have up to 3 crime scenes. Indeed it is usually the place where the body is dumped that is called the crime scene. So if he is able to link CB to a murder somehow, in the time after the 3rd, then all of the 5A folklore matters not much to his case.

That is what I believe he is working on.

So if we're saying what happened in 5a is irrelevant and HCW has no interest in that. should we presume that he does indeed have some very strong evidence to link CB to murder, that is not just the testimony of HB?

 

[redplanet]

In the oz podcast:
On the sighting by S family, HCW talks about it, revealing IMO that he has limited knowledge of it, and careful listening indicates even that he does not distinguish it fully from the sighting by JT. From that I deduce both sightings play zero part in his solution IMO and the concept of carrying a child visibly along a street has no relevance IMO.
But very different are these following responses which I abbreviate:
Q. Brit dogs? A. Unable to comment.
Q. Death in apartment? A. Unable to comment.

 

[Dlk79]

As far as we know, the cell data doesn't contain enough information to establish location.

From the public disclosures there is no ping data. Only connections for calls/SMS. I believe there is directional data. i.e Azimuth

Yes, the key part to that is "as far as we know". It's possible there is more information available to them though that might help pinpoint a narrower location. Possibly through Azimuth or other info which isn't public knowledge etc.

The point is, the police "do know" what kind of area they can narrow the phone down to, and I'd be astounded if HCW didn't know that information. So rather than he didn't know the answer in that interview, I think it was more a case that he didn't want to reveal what they know. JMO.

 

[tedtink]

Yes - i said that some weeks ago.

FF will use the "Some other dude did it" defence - in which case 5A is the perfect rabbit hole. I mean even JT identifying RM as the abductor is the kind of free gift that a defence seldom gets ....

HCW needs a magic bullet to short circuit all of that, IMO, otherwise it would be hard for the prosecution to prove that none of the other potential perps are a reasonable possibility, or add up to a reasonable possibility all together.

So lets say it was CB, and they know they have their man, but HCW doesn't find the 'smoking gun' evidence he needs to short circuit all the 5a stuff then what?
Push ahead and risk a not guilty charge or just sit down with all involved and say this is situation, we know we have our man, but it won't hold up in Court, but at least you have your answer and you won't have to be dragged through a trial?

 

[SuperdadV8]

This is how I see it

I do not see a possibility for a sitting person/child in that place in the campervan (from Minute 1:00).

 

[mrjitty]

So if we're saying what happened in 5a is irrelevant and HCW has no interest in that. should we presume that he does indeed have some very strong evidence to link CB to murder, that is not just the testimony of HB?

It's my read of his statements - I think he believes has something that comes after 10pm on the 3rd

 

[mrjitty]

So lets say it was CB, and they know they have their man, but HCW doesn't find the 'smoking gun' evidence he needs to short circuit all the 5a stuff then what?
Push ahead and risk a not guilty charge or just sit down with all involved and say this is situation, we know we have our man, but it won't hold up in Court, but at least you have your answer and you won't have to be dragged through a trial?

I think nothing can happen without a piece of evidence that ties CB directly to the murder.

My guess is they have a theory of the case based on CBs confessions to friends, and as they have investigated, that have found more circumstantial evidence.

But nothing that ties him directly.

 

[redplanet]

As far as we know, the cell data doesn't contain enough information to establish location.

From the public disclosures there is no ping data. Only connections for calls/SMS. I believe there may be directional data. i.e Azimuth

To establish a position, we'd really need ping data from multiple towers, not just the vodafone tower connection - and we don't know if PJ have that info

If one looks at the earlier phone locating work documented in the files (some is rather amusing hypothesising impossible driving speeds!) it is clear that, as you correctly say, they harvested only the most basic active connection data; no passive connection data, no signal strength data, none of the data required for triangulation.

 

[tedtink]

It's my read of his statements - I think he believes has something that comes after 10pm on the 3rd

Well let's face it, in a nutshell, HB's statement, CB's psychological profile, past crimes and that he was said to be in PDL that evening, has put him in the frame. That's it, as far as WE know.
BKA felt that was strong enough to justify a worldwide media fishing expedition.

 

[redplanet]

To illustrate the limited nature of the phone data available to track CB, here from the police files is an attempt to understand another phone connecting within 2.5 minutes to two masts very distant from each other
"Lagos is a distance ... from Aljezur ... 34 km by road. To cover this distance in about two and a half minutes one would have to travel at a speed of 816 km/h, which is impossible to be achieved in any terrestrial vehicle produced up to this time"

 

[SuperdadV8]

According to german tabloid "BILD", CB will be moved today to JVA Wolfenbüttel, near Braunschweig to serve his rape sentence in lower saxony.

IMO it's a little bit unusual, as his conviction in JVA Kiel would finish in january and his transfer seems a bit too early.

But who knows, maybe they are looking for some geographical distance between FF and CB.

Christian B. tritt 7-jährige Haft an: Maddie-Verdächtiger zieht in neuen Knast