Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect #27

[Denis R Tandib]

@tedtink

Sorry for the late response!

Of course, a similar modus operandi is a strong verdict for a court. And i mentioned a possible modus operandi as a key to solve this case pretty early. Until today, we have a single case (DM) with a special modus operandi linked to CB.

IF the prosecutors could link CB to the HB rape with a legally binding sentence, it should be kind of "easy" to convince the court, that possible evidence in the MM case with the same modus operandi points out to CB as the most likely perp!

But not just if there might be existing footage, even if there are a few confessions of CB made to witnesses over the years, of having done the same with MM.

The fact is, that CB seemed to be somebody that liked to put his deeds on tape. So IF he raped and tortured DM and HB with a same modus operandi, there should be some footage of both crimes. I personally believe (not more, not less!) that he sold it on the darkweb and the web doesn't forget anything.

IF i'm right and CB did the same to children like MM, there must be footage of it somewhere around the virtual world, or somewhere dug up in shabby places.

JMO

ETA: And the virtual world has been dug up in the last 3 - 4 years with thoroughness, but that huge amount of data needs years (!) to be inspected IMO.

If there is video footage of MM’s abuse or murder, given the profile of the case, it would be very, very valuable. While I am open to footage existing, I think it is extremely unlikely that it has been uploaded to web (dark or otherwise) and remained a secret - surely someone would have opportunistically sold it, or parts thereof, to MSM?

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Are we certain he moved back to Germany himself after MM's disappearance? We know he deregistered the jaguar but him moving to Germany comes from witness statements?

There would be others - @Sharkbite or @Dlk79 with better records than me but from memory after May 3, 2007, CB spent time in:

Augsburg with AB, the the flat drying out weed;
Orgiva with MT and HB, I think at Dragonfest, perhaps August;
I think he was in Sylt selling weed;
And, he spent time with NF in Foral ... the €100k theft was in November 2007.

In short, I don’t think we can say he “moved” anywhere, he continued to live a transitory life.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I think that there was lots of unidentified mobile numbers, but I'm sure, they may of realised his number, when they was searching for IG, think his factory place, where they found the dead dog, I could be wrong on those details, but it's something like that, maybe someone can clarify for me?

There were approximately 73k calls collected from the three carriers operating in the PDL area from 2-4 May 2007.

I think it’s unreasonable to think that CB should be picked up based solely on the fact that he made a 30 minute call (and perhaps other calls) that evening. His phone was “Pay as you go” and therefore could have been registered to anyone, no detective can tell which phone belongs to a paedo by looking at the number!

I think you are correct on the box factory being the source of the phone number but I don’t think that has been confirmed. I am fairly sure that the radio station group CB took through Malaga in April 2007 would have corroborated that it was his number and perhaps ex girlfriends could have too.

 

[Lilly b]

Is it quite common for paedophiles ,who as you rightly say sexually fantasise about children , to rape both young women and old ladies ? ( CB with the Irish woman and the American lady )
Are we to accept that the paedophile while fantasising about children also actually desires sex with the young female yet to commit the act of rape on a older female must be seen as victimisation of the elderly ?

So what about his collection of pictures of children?, some taken by himself, and convicted for
He seems to prey on the vulnerable, it's not victimisation, it's rape, and they were filmed, so probably for money

 

[mrjitty]

No, they just knocked on the door, no answer and off they went, to think that mm could of been in the house with him at that time
Could also be, that as GA thought it was the parents and she wasn't abducted they never bothered to much, and also the effect of not wanting that sort of thing hitting the spotlight in pdl.
And even if he had answered, you would need a warrant or permission to look round

I was canvassed in a murder case in door to door operation. The murder police introduced themselves, handed me a flyer, and asked if I knew anything. I said no. The entire thing lasted 60s. What more can they do?

That kind of door to door can locate useful witnesses, but it is hardly likely that it would have led to CB becoming a top suspect. Indeed the reason they didn't go back is most likely because there was nothing at all to link him to the case.

 

[mrjitty]

I will put the link here saying what GA himself said.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.th...166/madeleine-mccann-cops-suspect-missed/amp/

PJ did knock on his door early on; why on earth would the Pj even have done that if they had no idea about his past? there is no qs the PJ did not know

If they did actually knock on his door (the sourcing of this is not exactly official), it might well have just been part of broader canvassing efforts.

I think the idea that investigators "missed a chance" is laughable.

You can always say in every case that investigators missed a chance to identify and target the key suspect. But without any reason to directly suspect him, that is unlikely, because police don't have resources to go on huge fishing expeditions.

 

[C.greek]

I was canvassed in a murder case in door to door operation. The murder police introduced themselves, handed me a flyer, and asked if I knew anything. I said no. The entire thing lasted 60s. What more can they do?

That kind of door to door can locate useful witnesses, but it is hardly likely that it would have led to CB becoming a top suspect. Indeed the reason they didn't go back is most likely because there was nothing at all to link him to the case.

Apologies for this but allow me to say that they had witnesses who saw blonde men behaving strangely in the days and hours prior to the disappearance, men who looked like CB if they did a proper efit. They took all of them for granted and only SY brought these witness statements to the surface years later. Had they done a house to house search more witnesses could have potentially come forward.

To say that the investigators did everything they could and did not miss a chance is laughable, given what we know about the original investigation.

Oh ETA we are not talking here initially about a murder inquiry but a probable abduction - so police even had the right to do house searches since someone's life was in danger.

 

[mrjitty]

You are using hindsight. Once you have something to tie CB to the case, you can find the other bits of evidence in the haystack. But remember they had another critical eye witness sighting (JT) with the abductor looking like someone else entirely.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

If they did actually knock on his door (the sourcing of this is not exactly official), it might well have just been part of broader canvassing efforts.

I think the idea that investigators "missed a chance" is laughable.

You can always say in every case that investigators missed a chance to identify and target the key suspect. But without any reason to directly suspect him, that is unlikely, because police don't have resources to go on huge fishing expeditions.

I’ve read on the internet (so it must be true) that ~0.5% of the male population are paedos - not necessarily convicted or acting upon their urges but attracted to kids. So statistically, of the 450k permanent population of the Algarve, there are 1,125 paedos - (450k/2)*0.005. Then, as an educated guess, there are 3m tourists per year so probably another 10k-15k paedos.

In a previous thread, I’m sure someone mentioned that there were 600 paedos identified by the PJ in the immediate PDL area - perhaps in the PJ Files.

The PJ had nothing linking any paedo to the MM case. Also remember the CB wasn’t living at the yellow house at the time of MM’s abduction.

In hindsight it’s easy to be critical but the reality is that CB was only one paedo in potentially thousands and he was only an ex-resident at the time.

I don’t think the PJ were great but I think this mistake, so to speak, is understandable.

 

[C.greek]

You are using hindsight. Once you have something to tie CB to the case, you can find the other bits of evidence in the haystack. But remember they had another critical eye witness sighting (JT) with the abductor looking like someone else entirely.

It's not hindsight that a child was abducted from their holiday apartment. The problem is that the PJ did not treat the case from the beginning as such. No cctvs collected, no road blocks, nothing. No witness statements immediately, no door to door searches at midnight, no forensics collected but let the whole apartment and outside area in the mercy of bystanders. Only when SY came did they do some searching. I am sorry but I think the whole initial investigation was a sham. With no hindsight.

 

[C.greek]

I’ve read on the internet (so it must be true) that ~0.5% of the male population are paedos - not necessarily convicted or acting upon their urges but attracted to kids. So statistically, of the 450k permanent population of the Algarve, there are 1,125 paedos - (450k/2)*0.005. Then, as an educated guess, there are 3m tourists per year so probably another 10k-15k paedos.

In a previous thread, I’m sure someone mentioned that there were 600 paedos identified by the PJ in the immediate PDL area - perhaps in the PJ Files.

The PJ had nothing linking any paedo to the MM case. Also remember the CB wasn’t living at the yellow house at the time of MM’s abduction.

In hindsight it’s easy to be critical but the reality is that CB was only one paedo in potentially thousands and he was only an ex-resident at the time.

I don’t think the PJ were great but I think this is understandable.

They did not have a list of those thousands of paedos living in PDL. and CB was a convicted paedo, who had committed actual sexual crime against kids, not just one who had images on his computer. If GA states they knocked on his door, I don't see why not to believe him and also I doubt they knocked on those 1000s doors.

Of course they had everything linking the abduction to a paedo. Not CB necessarily but who else would abduct a child?!

 

[mrjitty]

They did not have a list of those thousands of paedos living in PDL. and CB was a convicted paedo, who had committed actual sexual crime against kids, not just one who had images on his computer. If GA states they knocked on his door, I don't see why not to believe him and also I doubt they knocked on those 1000s doors

Ok so they knock on his door again, he opens it and says sorry I don't know anything.

Now what?

 

[mrjitty]

Personally I think the inability of the Met to zero in on CB - instead focussing on other people to interview and smithman shows how tough this is without some specific intel.

Ruling out Tannerman seems to have been key to have at least remove the wrong description of the abductor from the equation.

 

[C.greek]

Ok so they knock on his door again, he opens it and says sorry I don't know anything.

Now what?

They could even do a house search if they had reasons to believe that a convicted paedo had abducted her. They could also have asked him his whereabouts - this is how they found the murderer of Danielle van Dam who also did not have any criminal record

 

[C.greek]

Personally I think the inability of the Met to zero in on CB - instead focussing on other people to interview and smithman shows how tough this is without some specific intel.

Ruling out Tannerman seems to have been key to have at least remove the wrong description of the abductor from the equation.

The inability of MET has to do with the initial investigation. Look how easily CB is dismissed as suspect for crimes in the PDL that the BKA are investigating him for

 

[mrjitty]

They could even do a house search if they had reasons to believe that a convicted paedo had abducted her. They could also have asked him his whereabouts - this is how they found the murderer of Danielle van Dam who also did not have any criminal record

They can't just do an house search without cause or a warrant.

If they do an illegal search, it could lead to evidence being inadmissible.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

They did not have a list of those thousands of paedos living in PDL. and CB was a convicted paedo, who had committed actual sexual crime against kids, not just one who had images on his computer. If GA states they knocked on his door, I don't see why not to believe him and also I doubt they knocked on those 1000s doors.

Of course they had everything linking the abduction to a paedo. Not CB necessarily but who else would abduct a child?!

I am fairly sure they had a list >600.

In the bold, do you know that this information was available to the PJ at the time?

GA has stated a lot of things, do you believe everything he has said? What’s more, the only doors CB had 3 May 2007 were the ones attached to his VW WF.

“Who else would abduct a child?” Kidnappers, a desperate childless couple, someone who was insane - there are reasonable alternatives ... goodness, perhaps she left 5A of her own accord (please everyone, let’s not start another four pages of how MM exited the apartment).

Look, I’m not a PJ cheerleader but in this circumstance, it’s reasonable they missed CB in the initial investigation.

All MO and I think it’s fine if yours is different.

 

[C.greek]

They can't just do an house search without cause or a warrant.

If they do an illegal search, it could lead to evidence being inadmissible.

If someone life is in danger and especially a child's they can. By law they can. They had reasonable cause.

 

[mrjitty]

The inability of MET has to do with the initial investigation. Look how easily CB is dismissed as suspect for crimes in the PDL that the BKA are investigating him for

OK but again what evidence do we suppose CB might have left at 5A which would have led back to him?

CB had plenty of time to enter 5A, abduct the child and leave. If no one saw him, then he will have been long gone by the time the first 2 police arrive at 5A over an hour later - let alone by the time significant numbers of police can be bought to the site, and finish the initial job of sweeping the immediate area.

If as is typical for these cases, CB got clean away, then did the murder at an as yet unknown place where he would have been confident of not being disturbed (which may have been many KM away by car), then dumped the body (likely at a 3rd location) then went home - there is little way into the case

What i've seen from other cases is the break usually is

1. The body turns up

2. Human intel.

In this case, it's option 2. But my guess, is HCW still really needs the body.

I've just finished reading No Stone Unturned and it really is fascinating how even when you 'know' who did it, in most cases you really still need the body. And the body is hard to find despite knowing the perp

 

[C.greek]

I am fairly sure they had a list >600.

In the bold, do you know that this information was available to the PJ at the time?

GA has stated a lot of things, do you believe everything he has said? What’s more, the only doors CB had 3 May 2007 were the ones attached to his VW WF.

“Who else would abduct a child?” Kidnappers, a desperate childless couple, someone who was insane - there are reasonable alternatives ... goodness, perhaps she left 5A of her own accord (please everyone, let’s not start another four pages of how MM exited the apartment).

Look, I’m not a PJ cheerleader but in this circumstance, it’s reasonable they missed CB in the initial investigation.

All MO and I think it’s fine if yours is different.

The PJ did an awful job and created a mess. The more I read about the case, the angrier I get. I am not saying they could have found CB immediately but they so easily dismiss him from other cases that I have no reason to believe they did everything they could.

When a child disappears in the middle of the night an alert should be raised immediately. This was not done. Had it been done we might not have been here discussing the case.
Have to go back to work now