Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #34

[enquirer6]

I think he is 100% convinced of the strength of the evidence and but for the jurisdiction issue would have been well on the way to considering laying charges against CB in the MM case.

Why on earth wouldn't he be?

'If only you knew': Chilling update on M M case​

Prosecutors insist they have substantial evidence that Madeleine McCann was killed by their German suspect but sharing it would compromise their investigations.

Lead investigator Hans Christian Wolters told the BBC he is “very confident” on eventually charging jailed sex offender Christian Brueckner over the British girl’s death.

"If you knew the evidence we had you would come to the same conclusion as I do,” he said.

“What we have so far doesn't allow any other conclusion at all.”

Wolters said it was “tactical considerations” as to why prosecutors were keeping their cards close to their chests.

“I can't give you details because we don't want the accused to know what we have on him.”

'If only you knew': Chilling update on Madeleine McCann case

The leading prosecutor in the case said if the public knew what he knew, they'd be adamant their main suspect was responsible for killing the British girl.

au.news.yahoo.com

I'm at ease with that and I don't see why the MM investigation should be compromised by the unnecessarily premature release of the information police and prosecutors hold. I am at ease with them taking the time to ensure they are able to build the best case possible based on the available evidence.

I respect the law regarding the rights of the accused and I also respect the right of victims to the appropriate conduct of their case. I think HCW has struck the balance with his approach.

Wolters said it was “tactical considerations” as to why prosecutors were keeping their cards close to their chests.

“I can't give you details because we don't want the accused to know what we have on him.”

How could it be of advantage to Brueckner to know the evidence against him?

 

[Mex]

On Dec 9 2020! The guy could waffle for England. (Or Germany)

Ok they found other offences to prosecute (assuming they can do that successfully) so they can claim success but he can't keep saying in 2023/4/? exactly what he was saying in 2020 about the original case can he?

(I know you're "at ease" with it but plenty in Germany won't be)

Sorry I would have answered all three paragraphs but only the first was available when I responded. The other two were later additions.

My opinion is that evidence gathering had been taking place regarding four of the five cases you mention and the only surprise was when HB came forward having recognised the similarity between the rape inflicted on her and that of the rape suffered by DM.

They’ve been running a tight ship of late so there may be more revelations still to come although I think what we have are the only ones supported by evidence.
I still have my suspicions about the home invasions and assaults which the Judicial police thought might be down to EM.

Is there any particular reason why you say that there may be unease in Germany. For example, are you able to provide a cite to that effect. Or is it your opinion only.

 

[Mex]

Wolters said it was “tactical considerations” as to why prosecutors were keeping their cards close to their chests.

“I can't give you details because we don't want the accused to know what we have on him.”

How could it be of advantage to Brueckner to know the evidence against him?

I can think of lots of ways in which knowledge of the case might be advantageous to a suspect. For example one which springs to mind being the names and addresses of witnesses and what their evidence consists of.
That could be fraught for the witnesses. My opinion

For me it is a strange process which I think could only work under the German system of judges and no jury.

 

[Malleux]

The certainty he was and is still expressing about his claims, because - as many of us say and will continue saying - if you're certain you should charge him

Being certain of something isn't enough. The burden of proof always falls on the Prosecutors and the principle of reasonable doubt applies in favour of the defendant.

Back in 2020, HCW stated they were 100% convinced they had the right man but at the same time admitted they did not have a strong enough case to meet the threshold for an arrrest warrant. Therein lies the gap between being certain and being able to prove it beyond reasonable doubt in a court of law.

That changed in October 2021, when HCW said they did now have enough for an arrest warrant. In Germany, the criteria for an arrest warrant is that the case against against the defendant is such that the probablity of a conviction is more likely than an acquittal.

However, just because you do suddenly have enough evidence to meet that threshold, it does not necesarily mean that "you should charge them". Conviction rates for murder in Germany are typically over 90% for cases that are brought to trial. That is the kind of benchmark a Prosecutor would ideally be looking for before laying all their cards on the table and filing charges.

For argument's sake, let's pluck a figure out of the air and say that based on the assessment of the strength of their case, the Prosecutors estimate the probability of a conviction for CB on the MM charge is currently at 70%. If you were in their shoes, would you go ahead and charge him right now?

HCW thinks it would be nonsense to charge when they have no time pressure on them and could potentially gather further evidence to strengthen their case. I fully agree with that sentiment.

Obviously there will come a point when the Prosecutors will be pressured by their superiors to make a call on whether to push ahead with a charge or to shelve the investigation. But given how much time and resource they've already put into this investigation, we're not at that stage yet... nowhere near IMO.

 

[enquirer6]

Being certain of something isn't enough. The burden of proof always falls on the Prosecutors and the principle of reasonable doubt applies in favour of the defendant.

Back in 2020, HCW stated they were 100% convinced they had the right man but at the same time admitted they did not have a strong enough case to meet the threshold for an arrrest warrant. Therein lies the gap between being certain and being able to prove it beyond reasonable doubt in a court of law.

That changed in October 2021, when HCW said they did now have enough for an arrest warrant. In Germany, the criteria for an arrest warrant is that the case against against the defendant is such that the probablity of a conviction is more likely than an acquittal.

However, just because you do suddenly have enough evidence to meet that threshold, it does not necesarily mean that "you should charge them". Conviction rates for murder in Germany are typically over 90% for cases that are brought to trial. That is the kind of benchmark a Prosecutor would ideally be looking for before laying their all cards on the table and filing charges.

For argument's sake, let's pluck a figure out of the air and say that based on the assessment of the strength of their case, the Prosecutors estimate the probability of a conviction for CB on the MM charge is currently at 70%. If you were in their shoes, would you go ahead and charge him right now?

HCW thinks it would be nonsense to charge when they have no time pressure on them and could potentially gather further evidence to strengthen their case. I fully agree with that sentiment.

Obviously there will come a point when the Prosecutors will be pressured by their superiors to make a call on whether to push ahead with a charge or to shelve the investigation. But given how much time and resource they've already put into this investigation, we're not at that stage yet... nowhere near IMO.

The one note of caution I would sound, that I'm not sure can be easily got round, is that this approach really puts the poor McCanns through the ringer.

 

[Malleux]

The one note of caution I would sound, that I'm not sure can be easily got round, is that this approach really puts the poor McCanns through the ringer.

The McCanns have been vocally supportive of the investigative efforts and haven't given any indication at being upset with the Prosecutors approach or the time they are taking. They've been waiting 16 years for answers, if I were in their shoes, I'd be content to wait a little longer if it meant a higher likelihood of a conviction and seeing justice. I'm sure they understand this is a difficult case for the Germans and they would rather see all efforts exhausted than getting it rushed through to trial.

Personally I suspect they've been kept more in the loop than what has been let on. JMO.

 

[Davieson]

The one note of caution I would sound, that I'm not sure can be easily got round, is that this approach really puts the poor McCanns through the ringer.

Is Wolters bothered about that ?

 

[Mex]

Is Wolters bothered about that ?

I think HCW may very well be bothered about the victims of crime and their families. But sentiment won't be allowed to stand in the way of him doing his duty on their behalf.
My opinion

 

[enquirer6]

Is Wolters bothered about that ?

I have no reason to disbelieve that Wolters is a humane man.

He has a difficult job.

 

[Lyall0814]

Sorry I would have answered all three paragraphs but only the first was available when I responded. The other two were later additions.

My opinion is that evidence gathering had been taking place regarding four of the five cases you mention and the only surprise was when HB came forward having recognised the similarity between the rape inflicted on her and that of the rape suffered by DM.

They’ve been running a tight ship of late so there may be more revelations still to come although I think what we have are the only ones supported by evidence.
I still have my suspicions about the home invasions and assaults which the Judicial police thought might be down to EM.

Is there any particular reason why you say that there may be unease in Germany. For example, are you able to provide a cite to that effect. Or is it your opinion only.

No it's very much my opinion only. I should remember to say so!

 

[Lyall0814]

Makes sense Malleux. Good post!

 

[enquirer6]

The McCanns have been vocally supportive of the investigative efforts and haven't given any indication at being upset with the Prosecutors approach or the time they are taking. They've been waiting 16 years for answers, if I were in their shoes, I'd be content to wait a little longer if it meant a higher likelihood of a conviction and seeing justice. I'm sure they understand this is a difficult case for the Germans and they would rather see all efforts exhausted than getting it rushed through to trial.

Personally I suspect they've been kept more in the loop than what has been let on. JMO.

I think (indeed, hope) you're right about that

 

[Mex]

I found the following snippet from Reuters of interest given recent discussion of knowledge and awareness of CB in the investigation.
The judicial police claim to have passed the name to the Brits in 2012. One wonders was that it? Or did they add context?

Taken from Reuter's article
For the first time since 2007 Portuguese prosecutors in Faro identified an official suspect in the MM investigation. The prosecutors did not clarify their reasons but said that the investigation has been carried out with cooperation from British and German authorities.

CB lived in the Algarve between 1995 and 2007 and burgled hotels and holiday flats etc, information verified by Reuters who had sight of court documents in 2020.

They also reported that “Portugal's Judiciary Police handed over documents with hundreds of names related to Madeleine's case, including CB to British authorities in 2012, according to the force.”

Portuguese prosecutors say man named formal suspect in McCann case

Portuguese prosecutors said on Thursday a man had been formally identified as a suspect in the disappearance of British toddler Madeleine McCann 15 years ago.

www.reuters.com

 

[RichardKimble]

I found the following snippet from Reuters of interest given recent discussion of knowledge and awareness of CB in the investigation.
The judicial police claim to have passed the name to the Brits in 2012. One wonders was that it? Or did they add context?

Taken from Reuter's article
For the first time since 2007 Portuguese prosecutors in Faro identified an official suspect in the MM investigation. The prosecutors did not clarify their reasons but said that the investigation has been carried out with cooperation from British and German authorities.

CB lived in the Algarve between 1995 and 2007 and burgled hotels and holiday flats etc, information verified by Reuters who had sight of court documents in 2020.

They also reported that “Portugal's Judiciary Police handed over documents with hundreds of names related to Madeleine's case, including CB to British authorities in 2012, according to the force.”

Portuguese prosecutors say man named formal suspect in McCann case

Portuguese prosecutors said on Thursday a man had been formally identified as a suspect in the disappearance of British toddler Madeleine McCann 15 years ago.

www.reuters.com

600 according to reports, so which as been argued before his name never revealed any flag of worth, he was interviewed by the BKA in 2013 it's reported, OG weren't interested in 2014, it's only because of an informant in 2017 his name came to prominence, so what did not arouse suspicion? lack of any thing of substance it could be argued like none of the descriptions resembled him? save years later in news articles.

 

[Davieson]

I found the following snippet from Reuters of interest given recent discussion of knowledge and awareness of CB in the investigation.
The judicial police claim to have passed the name to the Brits in 2012. One wonders was that it? Or did they add context?

Taken from Reuter's article
For the first time since 2007 Portuguese prosecutors in Faro identified an official suspect in the MM investigation. The prosecutors did not clarify their reasons but said that the investigation has been carried out with cooperation from British and German authorities.

CB lived in the Algarve between 1995 and 2007 and burgled hotels and holiday flats etc, information verified by Reuters who had sight of court documents in 2020.

They also reported that “Portugal's Judiciary Police handed over documents with hundreds of names related to Madeleine's case, including CB to British authorities in 2012, according to the force.”

Portuguese prosecutors say man named formal suspect in McCann case

Portuguese prosecutors said on Thursday a man had been formally identified as a suspect in the disappearance of British toddler Madeleine McCann 15 years ago.

www.reuters.com

Does mean that CB's name was one among hundreds of names given to OG in 2012 rather than singled out specifically

 

[enquirer6]

I don't think there's any doubt Andy Redwood alluded to Brueckner without naming him when he said one line of inquiry was, what he termed, a 'burglary gone wrong'.

Not sure when that was.

 

[Davieson]

I don't think there's any doubt Andy Redwood alluded to Brueckner without naming him when he said one line of inquiry was, what he termed, a 'burglary gone wrong'.

Not sure when that was.

Yet CB wasn't one of the three questioned by OG in connection with burglaries

 

[Pixie Child]

Yet CB wasn't one of the three questioned by OG in connection with burglaries

Wasn’t CB a telephone contact of one of those questioned at that time?

If so, was it to a number other than -680? Tiago da S does kind of resemble Diego Silva.

 

[Mex]

600 according to reports, so which as been argued before his name never revealed any flag of worth, he was interviewed by the BKA in 2013 it's reported, OG weren't interested in 2014, it's only because of an informant in 2017 his name came to prominence, so what did not arouse suspicion? lack of any thing of substance it could be argued like none of the descriptions resembled him? save years later in news articles.

Without putting too fine a point on it, it was pretty embarrassing for the judicial police when GA announced CB had been on police radar in 2007. The fact that was on his watch seems to have passed GA by.

Not that we will ever have access to the file because of the confidential nature of the content, methinks any notification which goes beyond the name of that one particular individual might be food for thought.
On the other hand if it was only the name and nothing else, how would investigators have been expected to check out the background.

Apparently SY passed the inquiry to Germany and yet again I believe he wasn’t at home when police called, but they did leave a request asking him to report in to them. Which he did.

The mystery for me is, if he had been cleared in Portugal in 2007, as we are led to believe he was, did passing his name include the result of that elimination being passed on?

 

[RichardKimble]

Yet CB wasn't one of the three questioned by OG in connection with burglaries

Quite, we can go around and around on this but it's known the investigative forces largely ignored CB until his name was given to them in 2017 .