Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #35

[Davieson]

re: key principles. interesting that he thinks he was never caught by the police. first time they caught him he was 17. and has been caught multiple times since.

I thought that quote about not being caught referred to carrying drugs.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

You may have a population of 200,000 in a zone and the 3, 4 or 5 people with the same mDNA profile could be restricted to a small area inside the zone.

Okay, I understand that.

I am saying that while 1:1bn gives more certainty than 1:50k, the latter would still be good if CB's mDNA profile matched one of the 42 unidentified hairs. In other words, it would rule him in if his mDNA was a match.

It would be good for the investigators to know this and to keep CB unaware of it. Do you follow my thinking?

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I thought that quote about not being caught referred to carrying drugs.

Yes, that is the correct context.

 

[Deleted member 268165]

Is that material found still available?

And it could be interesting of the police has the DNA from CB´s dog.
If CB was in the appartment, he could have lost a hair of his dog??

Yes, there were non-human hairs in 5A, but I do not know what they did with them.

From the Internet:

The use of non-human DNA typing in forensic science investigations, and specifically that from animal DNA, is ever increasing. The term animal DNA in this document refers to animal species encountered in a forensic science examination but does not include human DNA. Non-human DNA may either be: the trade and possession of a species, or products derived from a species, which is contrary to legislation; as evidence where the crime is against a person or property; instances of animal cruelty; or where the animal is the offender. The first instance is addressed by determining the species present, and the other scenarios can often be addressed by assigning a DNA sample to a particular individual organism. Currently there is little standardization of methodologies used in the forensic analysis of animal DNA or in reporting styles. The recommendations in this document relate specifically to animal DNA that is integral to a forensic science investigation and are not relevant to the breeding of animals for commercial purposes. This DNA commission was formed out of discussions at the International Society for Forensic Genetics 23rd Congress in Buenos Aires to outline recommendations on the use of non-human DNA in a forensic science investigation. Due to the scope of non-human DNA typing that is possible, the remit of this commission is confined to animal DNA typing only

ISFG: recommendations regarding the use of non-human (animal) DNA in forensic genetic investigations

ISFG: recommendations regarding the use of non-human (animal) DNA in forensic genetic investigations

cadnap.org

 

[Mex]

I disagree. Without the appeal, GA’s comments would have faded into the myriad other reports of potential suspects. I think the BKA and HCW know this. They went public to obtain the evidence they needed to charge CB; nothing to do with GA.

All just the opinion of some guy on the internet.

With respect Denis, GA had no intention whatsoever of allowing his latest revelation to fade.

He did the tv interview circuit to embellish it and he wrote a book about it!

 

[Lyall0814]

With respect Denis, GA had no intention whatsoever of allowing his latest revelation to fade.

He did the tv interview circuit to embellish it and he wrote a book about it!

A book very few have read. But GA will be delighted to know you think he's still so important.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

With respect Denis, GA had no intention whatsoever of allowing his latest revelation to fade.

He did the tv interview circuit to embellish it and he wrote a book about it!

I was in Australia when Saunok-cocoa-coconut-pina-colada (guy needs an easier name) and it received very little promotion here - just following up on the Netflix Documentary which obviously brought the case back to the full attention of the global audience.

The same level of attention was not on the case again until the public appeal in June 2020.

The point is not even to do with what GA is trying to do. It is that GA's interviews and his book were not responsible for the public appeal. The need for evidence was.

I think if you were to look at it objectively you would agree with this.

 

[frank-cole]

Maybe MM was tortured before the murder?!

I was not aware of other cars at the time. IMO it still could be VW:

I was never caught by the police because I followed a few key principles.
Where possible, only driving during the day so that my battered 'hippy bus' didn't attract attention, only driving on the roads I needed to and, most importantly never provoking the police.

Sadly I think she probably was.

I think CB’s writings have significance especially when they come at a time when something is also happening in the investigation. It’s far too calculating, polished & narcissistic. He doesn’t stick to 1 point he’s all over the place with the points he’s venting about. I think there’s a mix of self-loathing, perversion & goading.

IMO his suggestion about the hippy bus may mean he switched to his Jaguar that night. IMO he’s too calculating to claim the complete opposite of what happened.

I was hoping to ask what people thought about the timing & the content of CB’s new letters?

I think the timing is significant because he’s rattled, annoyed or excited by the searches. IMO he’s either trying to goad the investigators because he knows they’re looking on the wrong place, or he’s agitated & venting his frustration, whilst trying to suggest some type of different narrative because he’s alarmed that they’re getting warmer.

Be happy to read other thoughts.

 

[Lyall0814]

Sadly I think she probably was.

I think CB’s writings have significance especially when they come at a time when something is also happening in the investigation. IMO his suggestion about the hippy bus may mean he switched to his Jaguar that night. IMO he’s too calculating to claim the complete opposite of what happened.

Was hoping to ask what people thought about the timing & the content of CB’s new letters?

I think the timing is significant because he’s rattled, annoyed or excited by the searches. IMO he’s either trying to goad the investigators because he knows they’re looking on the wrong place, or he’s venting his frustration & some type of counter narrative because he’s alarmed that they’re barking up the right tree

Didn't the Pisa article say the letters were written and received by whoever before last week's searches were announced?

("One letter was sent just days before the start of this week's search for her at the Barragem do Arade reservoir")

 

[Malleux]

Didn't the Pisa article say the letters were written and received by whoever before last week's searches were announced?

I agree. I don't think the recent letter published is actually "new". There's a lot of talk in it about the football world cup and also his appeal to have the DM case re-tried. All of which happened the back end of last year so I would date the letter as being from around last Nov/Dec or maybe slightly afterwards if he's talking about events reflectivity.

The article in which the most recent letter first appeared wasn't actually written by Nick Pisa but yes, I'm pretty sure the letter was written to him.JMO.

ETA: just noticed he finishes the letter with "spring is coming" too, so yes, the letter is from months ago.

 

[Pitkin]

Is that material found still available?

And it could be interesting of the police has the DNA from CB´s dog.
If CB was in the appartment, he could have lost a hair of his dog??

Haven’t posted for a long time but I’ve been following this case in detail since 2007.

I could envisage a scenario where CB or (less likely imo) his dog’s hair, could be linked to apt 5a.

But I’m curious to know how you explain the blood and cadaver alerts by Eddie and Keela the UK police dogs. Do you think they made a mistake or were prompted in some way?

 

[Mex]

Yes, but CB was made public (photo and name) on June 4, 2020, by the press. Why was so easy for the press to find that info?

GA gave enough information in his first broadcast to enable the press to home in on Ney. I doubt if many of them had heard of CB at that stage.

When GA intimated that Ney was not the suspect in this instance they looked elsewhere. I don't know how many German nationals fitted the profile GA had provided but I guess not too many.

If all else were to fail there was always the close relationship GA has with the media to fall back on. My opinion. And also my opinion that the bona fide investigation must have been appalled that CB's cover had been blown in this way. They just were not ready as HCW intimated in his first media interviews.

Whether intentionally or not I think GA threw a huge spanner into the works of a very active ongoing investigation which had been handled very discretely until his intervention.

Please note that they had been concentrating on CB since 2017 without a word being said.
After untimely interruption they are now back to that stage with both the BKA and SY operating to the fact they will not be providing a running commentary.
According to SF that is not how GA handles an investigation despite the secrecy laws which bound him.

 

[sleuth-d-]

I thought that quote about not being caught referred to carrying drugs.

thanks. and he has been caught - and served time - twice on drugs offences.

 

[Lyall0814]

GA gave enough information in his first broadcast to enable the press to home in on Ney. I doubt if many of them had heard of CB at that stage.

When GA intimated that Ney was not the suspect in this instance they looked elsewhere. I don't know how many German nationals fitted the profile GA had provided but I guess not too many.

If all else were to fail there was always the close relationship GA has with the media to fall back on. My opinion. And also my opinion that the bona fide investigation must have been appalled that CB's cover had been blown in this way. They just were not ready as HCW intimated in his first media interviews.

Whether intentionally or not I think GA threw a huge spanner into the works of a very active ongoing investigation which had been handled very discretely until his intervention.

Please note that they had been concentrating on CB since 2017 without a word being said.
After untimely interruption they are now back to that stage with both the BKA and SY operating to the fact they will not be providing a running commentary.
According to SF that is not how GA handles an investigation despite the secrecy laws which bound him.

How do you know they'd been working away since 2017 without a word being said? Not a word was said publicly maybe but in all likelihood the German police and prosecutors had been in regular contact with authorities and journalists in all involved countries before June 4 2020. Just like I'm sure they all regularly chat with each other now and we know nothing about it.

 

[enquirer6]

Haven’t posted for a long time but I’ve been following this case in detail since 2007.

I could envisage a scenario where CB or (less likely imo) his dog’s hair, could be linked to apt 5a.

But I’m curious to know how you explain the blood and cadaver alerts by Eddie and Keela the UK police dogs. Do you think they made a mistake or were prompted in some way?

Mark Harrison is very clear in his report that no incriminating inference should be drawn from any reaction of either dog.

And a PJ inspector, reviewing video footage of the dogs in action, made some sage comments about the way in which the dogs were handled, casting further doubt on the veracity of the alerts.

 

[Mex]

I was in Australia when Saunok-cocoa-coconut-pina-colada (guy needs an easier name) and it received very little promotion here - just following up on the Netflix Documentary which obviously brought the case back to the full attention of the global audience.

The same level of attention was not on the case again until the public appeal in June 2020.

The point is not even to do with what GA is trying to do. It is that GA's interviews and his book were not responsible for the public appeal. The need for evidence was.

I think if you were to look at it objectively you would agree with this.

I have explained in very great detail exactly how I arrived at forming my opinion, if you disagree that is entirely fine.

But the fact remains that the very first intimation given of CB identity was made by GA in the spring of 2019. The second intimation was given in the Autumn of the same year pointing out his referral was not to Ney but to another.

Even the Bible had to have have a Genesis. The starting point for the identification of CB was GA's interview in Saunokonoko's podcast in April 2019. That is a fact.

 

[enquirer6]

GA gave enough information in his first broadcast to enable the press to home in on Ney. I doubt if many of them had heard of CB at that stage.

When GA intimated that Ney was not the suspect in this instance they looked elsewhere. I don't know how many German nationals fitted the profile GA had provided but I guess not too many.

If all else were to fail there was always the close relationship GA has with the media to fall back on. My opinion. And also my opinion that the bona fide investigation must have been appalled that CB's cover had been blown in this way. They just were not ready as HCW intimated in his first media interviews.

Whether intentionally or not I think GA threw a huge spanner into the works of a very active ongoing investigation which had been handled very discretely until his intervention.

Please note that they had been concentrating on CB since 2017 without a word being said.
After untimely interruption they are now back to that stage with both the BKA and SY operating to the fact they will not be providing a running commentary.
According to SF that is not how GA handles an investigation despite the secrecy laws which bound him.

I don't think there's too much doubt, now, that Andy Redwood, way back, alluded to Brueckner, without naming him, when he made reference to what he termed a burlglary gone wrong as one of the lines enquiry.

 

[Mex]

How do you know they'd been working away since 2017 without a word being said? Not a word was said publicly maybe but in all likelihood the German police and prosecutors had been in regular contact with authorities and journalists in all involved countries before June 4 2020. Just like I'm sure they all regularly chat with each other now and we know nothing about it.

The evidence gathered for the five cases with which CB is currently charged came as a result of the work being carried out by the international police forces.

 

[mrjitty]

Wasn't she cross with GA for giving her duff info?

I meant her speculation about fibres in her interview with HCW

That must surely have come from PJ?

 

[Malleux]

I meant her speculation about fibres in her interview with HCW

That must surely have come from PJ?

She mentioned nothing about fibres. That was just The Sun speculating afterwards. She intimated sources had told her they'd found "something belonging to MM" in his van.

HCW later rubbished the fibres story but still wouldn't comment on what, if anything, their forensic analysis of the van turned up.