Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #4

[mrjitty]

According to Scotland Yard the child was not Madeleine. So unless people think SY made a huge blunder.....not likely.

And it is surely obvious the Met have discussed this with Tanner and she agrees

I mean the Met have access to this witness so surely took such a basic step

 

[tedtink]

But she didn’t think he was into children either. I’m not convinced she knew him well at all. She was only with him a year, and during that time, she said he was often traveling back and forth between Germany and Portugal.

I agree, of course she didn't really know him I was being sarcastic in my post - sorry should have made it clear

 

[mrjitty]

Two things;
Firstly has the Tanner sighting being disregarded as the abducter, if so why?

Secondly, the Smith sighting, how credible was he? Remember he reported to Leicestershire Police that he was 60-80 per cent sure that it was Gerry McCann carrying the child? Which was impossible as Gerry was at the ocean club eating.

I don’t think either sighting helps the investigation. Out of the two, I’d be more inclined to think that the Tannerman sighting would be more plausible.

Exactly

Like I say this logically means Tanner was confused about where she saw the 'abductor' and which direction he was walking.

How that happened I have no idea but hard to blame PJ for it.

 

[PS8800]

Madeleine McCann suspect Christian B stared at me and my girls for two hours, says Brit mum

“Lost soul”

“I’ve never forgotten those eyes. I felt as if he was looking through me and could see my sins.”

(message me if you’re interested in discussing potential spiritual issues here...)

Pm sent!

 

[PS8800]

Madeleine McCann: Parents urge German police to share evidence | Daily Mail Online

So apparently the McCanns do not know what German LE have on CB? Wow!

 

[mrjitty]

The lack of CCTV is frightening and I would bet anyone living in the vicinity would be aware of same. For an affluent area it surprises me that ocean beach never had any either. I hope there is now...

CCTV is not nearly so prevalent in many European countries compared to the UK

 

[mrjitty]

The other thing is wilkins and Gerry were talking in the alleyway for a significant period of time and neither of then saw tanner or tannerman

As the corroborate each others evidence and the unlikelihood that wilkins has it wrong, IMO tanner is wrong about both the time and place of her sighting

My personal belief is the group corrupted each others evidence by hot housing the timeline to fit the jigsaw together

 

[Tim N]

ah ok, i thought that was a list of suspects...its odd that people are still focusing on the mccanns statements..ill copy and paste my post in number4. cheers, tim

 

[tedtink]

Madeleine McCann: Parents urge German police to share evidence | Daily Mail Online

So apparently the McCanns do not know what German LE have on CB? Wow!

Apparently not, and neither should they be privy to any evidence, I realise that must be excruciating, but if it was leaked in any way it would be catastrophic in the case against him.

 

[tedtink]

The other thing is wilkins and Gerry were talking in the alleyway for a significant period of time and neither of then saw tanner or tannerman

As the corroborate each others evidence and the unlikelihood that wilkins has it wrong, IMO tanner is wrong about both the time and place of her sighting

My personal belief is the group corrupted each others evidence by hot housing the timeline to fit the jigsaw together

I've always found that rather odd too

 

[LittleRose]

Bungling local Madeleine McCann officers froze me out, says top UK detective | Daily Mail Online

damning...

 

[Integrity123]

Hi everyone I'm new so please forgive me if this has already been asked or answered. @Armchair_Defective
Blown away re the men (tapas group)searching bushes BEFORE Madeleine was declared missing by Kate. Do you have a link please? X

 

[Tim N]

OK i arrived late to this party and i got harassed out of the UK forum for being factual and not buying into their McCann conspiracy which has them hung, drawn and quartered.

Not a single theory fits and relies heavily on dubious claims.

As far as i see it, Bruckner fits the whole thing, and several more..he walked in to abduct, but his initial intent was robbery. When he realised that the family had a child, it got sinister...i think. But he'd done this before...it was still planned, and he used his contact either as an accomplice to abduction, or an unwitting accomplice that was 'only' assisting a burglary.

In 1994 he was in Germany and molested a child- he was 17.
Moved to Portugal in within a 40km radius, 2 blonde children disappeared, and a woman was raped on his beach route, which he was convicted for.
Leaving the area in 2008 for Germany, he worked 40km from a rural property he owned, which was also 40km from where Inga Gehricke disappeared in 2015.
Coincidentally he worked and a lived within a 40km radius of 3 unsolved child disappearances AND was known to be in the area in the latter two of those occurrences.

What is the probability that a person lived and worked within 40km of 2 disappearing children, and able to be in the area of a third and even fourth?..on first principles, one coincidence can be explained by chance...two can be explained by incidental coincidence, but three?...and four?. The likelihood is very low, but not conclusive of course. When you couple it with motive and criminal record though it becomes compelling.

The really scary thing is based on the limited information we have, his comments appear to allude to child trafficking. Stolen for order evil...'i have to do a horrible job tomorrow, but itll change my life'- may 2nd, 2007. ..
Could CB's paedophilia and drug running aligned him with opportunity for big $ human trafficking?..and did it AT LEAST three times?

Frightingly, if each was a big $ transaction, he seems to have run out of money almost every 10 years. Being a suspect for 1996, 2007 and 2015..
Where did he get the money to start his business in Germany from 2008 onwards?

McCann Conspiracies
Either the McCanns thought they could minimise the blame due to the opportunity their checking system gave the abductor, by hastily discussing the scenario..and it went to crap once the scrutiny arrived. Or they simply didnt recall the evening the same - thats actually a possibility. And since then there's been all sorts of suspicion due to that. That really does explain away almost everything.

There are multiple articles of drug and cadaver dogs of being only as good as chance. Many. A quick search comes up with a study in Australia that shows dogs are more wrong than right..in fact. And if a theory is based on a certainty that the dogs detected something, then its a weak theory.

 

[LittleRose]

OK i arrived late to this party and i got harassed out of the UK forum for being factual and not buying into their McCann conspiracy which has them hung, drawn and quartered.

Not a single theory fits and relies heavily on dubious claims.

As far as i see it, Bruckner fits the whole thing, and several more..he walked in to abduct, but his initial intent was robbery. When he realised that the family had a child, it got sinister...i think. But he'd done this before...it was still planned, and he used his contact either as an accomplice to abduction, or an unwitting accomplice that was 'only' assisting a burglary.

In 1994 he was in Germany and molested a child- he was 17.
Moved to Portugal in within a 40km radius, 2 blonde children disappeared, and a woman was raped on his beach route, which he was convicted for.
Leaving the area in 2008 for Germany, he worked 40km from a rural property he owned, which was also 40km from where Inga Gehricke disappeared in 2015.
Coincidentally he worked and a lived within a 40km radius of 3 unsolved child disappearances AND was known to be in the area in the latter two of those occurrences.

What is the probability that a person lived and worked within 40km of 2 disappearing children, and able to be in the area of a third and even fourth?..on first principles, one coincidence can be explained by chance...two can be explained by incidental coincidence, but three?...and four?. The likelihood is very low, but not conclusive of course. When you couple it with motive and criminal record though it becomes compelling.

The really scary thing is based on the limited information we have, his comments appear to allude to child trafficking. Stolen for order evil.
Could CB's paedophilia and drug running aligned him with opportunity for big $ human trafficking?..and did it AT LEAST three times?

Frightingly, if each was a big $ transaction, he seems to have run out of money almost every 10 years. Being a suspect for 1996, 2007 and 2015..
Where did he get the money to start his business in Germany from 2008 onwards?

McCann Conspiracies
The McCanns thought they could minimise the blame due to the opportunity their checking system gave the abductor, by hastily discussing the scenario..and it went to crap once the scrutiny arrived. They simply didnt anticipate that. And since then there's been all sorts of suspicion due to that. That really does explain away almost everything.

There are multiple articles of drug and cadaver dogs of being only as good as chance. Many. A quick search comes up with a study in Australia that shows dogs are more wrong than right..in fact. And if a theory is based on a certainty that the dogs detected something, then its a weak theory.

Thankfully, no Kate and Gerry bashing here. They’ve been made victims several times over. Most everyone here, I believe, think CB is guilty. Just no consensus on whether he was a lone predator satisfying his private sick desires or whether he trafficked MM for profit. I believe it was the later.

 

[mrjitty]

Bungling local Madeleine McCann officers froze me out, says top UK detective | Daily Mail Online

damning...

This article actually contradicts various Mail narratives about the "bungling cops"

As it states, contrary to popular belief the PJ investigation focussed too much on the abductor theory of the case and failed to full investigate the parents from the get go to eliminate them. So ironically as we have seen in recent UK abduction cases, the police are all over the family from the start and tend to drop in support/liaison officers who of course become observers and can constantly seek info. They also closely control the media relations aspect.

Secondly the post Murat theory of the case was actually developed by specialist UK police under Mark Harrison. So I agree PJ lacked these specialist resources and it would have been better had they come over in the early weeks

But of course it should hardly surprise anyone that a UK detective parachuted in by himself and presumably not speaking the language would be largely sidelined by the local team who didn't ask for him.

In any event, one always circles back to the fundamental issue for the police investigation.

Finally one can be critical of the failure to look hard enough at this guy, but we know Met also claims there were 600+ suspects and they didn't rank him as a top suspect either.

So without a single piece of evidence putting him directly in the frame, where do you go with it?

 

[Tim N]

I hope replying to your own post is not deemed weird, but suppose that:
1. CB is released in 1995 and goes to Lagos/PdL for work because of a 'friend'. (this is fact)..my thoughts are - what kind of friend is this?..a paedophile?. Why PdL? was PdL lucrative for robbery and/or paedophilia?.. given that known pedos live in that very area it seems oddly coincidental.
2. within 8 months, a young child disappears 40km away. A half an hour drive. An organised group of pedos could do this, and an individual carries it out..maybe even whisked away by accomplices.
3. CB is paid $250k-$500k which lasts him 8 years. He claims social welfare during this time and probably loots homes and holiday apartments. He doesnt need lots of cash so he can act relatively low profile..lurking the web and so on...but the years 8-11 where his money ran out made him desperate to abduct for $ again. He raped in 2005 and in 2007 he organised his opportunity for a big pay day.
4. He staked out the room and in particular noticed the opportunity for a n abduction, probably early in the week when the routine as first known. It was probably just for burglary, but turned into an abduction when he saw the occupants.
5. The next few weeks he organised to have her 'transferred to someone else for big $). she was sighted allegedly in late may still in spain.
6. Late May he headed away from the heat back to Germany. Somehow he had the $ to start a kiosk and own a property just 40 km from where Inga Gehricke disappeared 7 years later...(when the money ran out again?)..

My sincerest apologies if this is brutally condid and offends. If it is please tell me and ill censor or delete.

Tim.

 

[Tim N]

Thankfully, no Kate and Gerry bashing here. They’ve been made victims several times over. Most everyone here, I believe, think CB is guilty. Just no consensus on whether he was a lone predator satisfying his private sick desires or whether he trafficked MM for profit. I believe it was the later.

sadly it seems to point this way...but i dont think it was really p[ointing to this until recently..at least publicly..and until 2017 ..for the cops..

 

[LittleRose]

This article actually contradicts various Mail narratives about the "bungling cops"

As it states, contrary to popular belief the PJ investigation focussed too much on the abductor theory of the case and failed to full investigate the parents from the get go to eliminate them. So ironically as we have seen in recent UK abduction cases, the police are all over the family from the start and tend to drop in support/liaison officers who of course become observers and can constantly seek info. They also closely control the media relations aspect.

Secondly the post Murat theory of the case was actually developed by specialist UK police under Mark Harrison. So I agree PJ lacked these specialist resources and it would have been better had they come over in the early weeks

But of course it should hardly surprise anyone that a UK detective parachuted in by himself and presumably not speaking the language would be largely sidelined by the local team who didn't ask for him.

In any event, one always circles back to the fundamental issue for the police investigation.

Finally one can be critical of the failure to look hard enough at this guy, but we know Met also claims there were 600+ suspects and they didn't rank him as a top suspect either.

So without a single piece of evidence putting him directly in the frame, where do you go with it?

If there were 600 suspects, then the PJ was in way over their head. They should have welcomed help from the Met. It could have been a joint effort from the start with an equal division of labor.

 

[Tim N]

This article actually contradicts various Mail narratives about the "bungling cops"

....

So without a single piece of evidence putting him directly in the frame, where do you go with it?

Probability. Unless there are several other pedos that ere in each area at the time of an abduction, the likelihood is very high..pretty much certainty in fact.

But even a certainty probability isnt enough to establish guilt or eliminate doubt. Thats why they are still appealing. They know he did it, they know how he did it and they know who is involved..but they cant get that one piece of evidence that they need to meet judicial requirements.

OK, sure im taking the narrative that CB did it..but only as devil's advocate. I'm happy, and hopeful to be wrong.

(edit: maybe thats the issue- that he travelled with, and visited other suspects which could also then be implicated and therefore make it more difficult to correlate the location to the crimes..i.e. his work was always to sub contract various parts of an abduction..actually this sounds like an actual technique that would work..even if just to avoid conviction but not a charge)

 

[mrjitty]

I've always found that rather odd too

This is why witnesses need to be interviewed separately and not talk to each other.

I suspect the following sort of thing happened.

GM knows he was talking with Wilkins in the alley. Tanner thinks he left the table first so that "must have been" about 10 mins after GM that she left.

Everyone has had some glasses of wine that evening and are in a high stress situation.

Was GM gone 20 mins or 30? Did Tanner leave first or second? Is she remembering the correct evening?

IMO she saw Trottman but maybe didn't exactly remember where/when, then based on suggestion from the others, thought than was where she must have seen him

Then maybe on the Murat ID, she kind of assumes PJ must have got the right guy?

I also believe the Tapas group gave interpretations favourable to themselves of how often they went for checks when in reality, they don't all remember the details too well.

In this way, the timeline came to be structured around an incorrect sighting as people interpreted their own movements based on what timings other group members gave.