Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #9

[tedtink]

I don't think the pink thing in the westfalia was MM - why would he stay local? Keep her in the van give her lollies, meals, let her out to pee etc? It's nonsense imo. He didn't have time to groom her, there was an international search party out for her.
MM would have been killed very soon after imo.
However, after having taken MM and possibly abusing her, his fantasies, (in the chatroom) would have been even more developed, sick and enduring. - hence, talking about taking something small and using it for days.
If he knew he had done it once and had got away with it and had been sexually gratified by it, then his fantasies could go to the next level. (Fritz style)


JMO

 

[MENDEL]

IMHO:

1. They entered through front door with a key (1a and 1b) and may have passed child through window to someone outside. Perhaps this was the only task for abductor de facto.

2. Abduction probably occurred much earlier than stated because this was a quite well planned abduction. So they had apartment controlled under the slightest detail. So when would they act? Just after parents left or would they wait 1 hour or more?

(1a) Many years after abduction a retired OC's employee told a set of keys for entire block 5 was lost the week before abduction. He never told that before because he was afraid of the guy who trusted the keys, and left them in safe. This guy was fired because he was involved in thefts in OC. In:

Apartment key theft cover-up by resort staff in Madeleine McCann case

(1b) Of course they could have used patio door. But they didn't for a reason: this was a very well planned abduction, so they had no guarantees in advance about patio door and it was much safer and smooth to have a font door's key.

After analyzing apartment plan it's nonsense patio door was ever used in such a well-planned abduction in which they likely used a key.

Why would abductor use such a long path to leave home if he could leave directly through front door? Front door was just next to children's door.

ETA: it's interesting McCanns had a camera on dining room's table at the time of abduction and was left there. Wouldn't CB, a well formatted thief steal it if he ever was there?

 

[tedtink]

After analyzing apartment plan it's nonsense patio door was ever used in such a well-planned abduction in which they likely used a key.

Why would abductor use such a long path to leave home if he could leave directly through front door? Front door was just next to children's door.

I agree - I don't believe any keys were used.
I think the #keygate can be explained away.
If you're responsible for a heap of keys it really isn't impossible to lose sets all the time. It's just human nature to mislay things - especially keys and the TV remote control, pens and socks!
That doesn't mean to say the keys have been stolen imo

 

[MENDEL]

I agree - I don't believe any keys were used.
I think the #keygate can be explained away.
If you're responsible to a heap of keys it really isn't impossible to lose sets all the time. It's just human nature to mislay things - especially keys and the TV remote control, pens and socks!
That doesn't mean to say the keys have been stolen imo

Well thought, but I still keep #keygate. The guy who kept keys was latter fired for theft in OC. It's a big set of keys, all block 5 apartments, which are kept in a safe and only used when strictly needed. Something easily found if forgotten somewhere.

A well-planned abduction must have a sure way to enter apartment. Patio door wasn't as no one could know in advance about it. A key allows entering in a second and discreetly. If window was used, then someone was waiting outside to leave immediately. Maybe abductor was left behind because that was his only task in the plan.

 

[redplanet]

After analyzing apartment plan it's nonsense patio door was ever used in such a well-planned abduction in which they likely used a key.

Why would abductor use such a long path to leave home if he could leave directly through front door? Front door was just next to children's door.

ETA: it's interesting McCanns had a camera on dining room's table at the time of abduction and was left there. Wouldn't CB, a well formatted thief steal it if he ever was there?

Also the passports in a drawer in the parent's bedroom, easily findable, remained unstolen.

 

[tedtink]

After analyzing apartment plan it's nonsense patio door was ever used in such a well-planned abduction in which they likely used a key.

Why would abductor use such a long path to leave home if he could leave directly through front door? Front door was just next to children's door.

ETA: it's interesting McCanns had a camera on dining room's table at the time of abduction and was left there. Wouldn't CB, a well formatted thief steal it if he ever was there?

Yes I agree about the camera, passports were there too and he had hundreds of them allegedly.
It was either CB going in specifically to take MM or possibly not him at all. (Not a burglary gone wrong and a quick decision to take MM instead (as a abduction would have been fantasy driven and at least planned imo) CB is predatory imo, not opportunistic.
That's just based on his usual M.O

 

[tedtink]

Yes I agree about the camera, passports were there too and he had hundreds of them allegedly.
It was either CB going in specifically to take MM or possibly not him at all. (Not a burglary gone wrong and a quick decision to take MM instead (as a abduction would have been fantasy driven and at least planned imo) CB is predatory imo, not opportunistic.
That's just based on his usual M.O

OR as you think,

Well thought, but I still keep #keygate. The guy who kept keys was latter fired for theft in OC. It's a big set of keys, all block 5 apartments, which are kept in a safe and only used when strictly needed. Something easily found if forgotten somewhere.

A well-planned abduction must have a sure way to enter apartment. Patio door wasn't as no one could know in advance about it. A key allows entering in a second and discreetly. If window was used, then someone was waiting outside to leave immediately. Maybe abductor was left behind because that was his only task in the plan.

So do you think CB may have gone in appt for someone else or someone else went in for CB?
I guess that's possible but why do LE have him on murder charge and not just abduction?

 

[MENDEL]

You have nice M.O., Ted. Sure a burglary gone wrong is absolute nonsense. Yes, planned for sure, but as we know CB wouldn't be capable of such meticulous plan. He could have had a role, but couldn't be the head.

 

[MENDEL]

OR as you think,


So do you think CB may have gone in appt for someone else or someone else went in for CB?
I guess that's possible but why do LE have him on murder charge and not just abduction?

Yes, I do. [ETA: he couldn't use window without someone outside]

It's hard to know what evidence German LE have in hand and what they're thinking about. HCW even admitted once MM might be alive.

If this was his role, then he can't be charged but for abduction, even if she was later murdered.

Problem here is that HCW is too slow investigating this as he may have only the tip of iceberg with him and couldn't just get [enough?] evidence for this after 3 years.

 

[tedtink]

After analyzing apartment plan it's nonsense patio door was ever used in such a well-planned abduction in which they likely used a key.

Why would abductor use such a long path to leave home if he could leave directly through front door? Front door was just next to children's door.

ETA: it's interesting McCanns had a camera on dining room's table at the time of abduction and was left there. Wouldn't CB, a well formatted thief steal it if he ever was there?

ETA: it's interesting McCanns had a camera on dining room's table at the time of abduction and was left there. Wouldn't CB, a well formatted thief steal it if he ever was there?[/QUOTE

If the abduction was sexually motivated, as opposed to financially motivated, then he wouldn't have taken valuables imo.
That's presuming he acted alone.

If the abduction was financially motivated / for payment by another, then no need to take other valuables either.

 

[MENDEL]

If he acted alone, he wouldn't lose time with camera and passport perhaps because he was enough busy with child. But if he used window to pass child and left through patio door he would take camera and passport, something he's formatted to do.

If he didn't act alone, his motivation might be money and not sex.

 

[redplanet]

Thanks.
Was the apartment treated at all with luminol?

And did the McCanns hire that car for many months then?

And was the car treated with luminol?

In 5A the forensics team used special UV illumination, and the fingerprint expert used something called "dragon blood", I don't know about luminol.

 

[tedtink]

Well thought, but I still keep #keygate. The guy who kept keys was latter fired for theft in OC. It's a big set of keys, all block 5 apartments, which are kept in a safe and only used when strictly needed. Something easily found if forgotten somewhere.

A well-planned abduction must have a sure way to enter apartment. Patio door wasn't as no one could know in advance about it. A key allows entering in a second and discreetly. If window was used, then someone was waiting outside to leave immediately. Maybe abductor was left behind because that was his only task in the plan.

So why use the window if you have a key? Unless it's just to open the window from the inside to detract from having keys in the first place?

 

[redplanet]

Thanks.
Was the apartment treated at all with luminol?

And did the McCanns hire that car for many months then?

And was the car treated with luminol?

Car rental was 27 May to 23 Sept IMO

 

[MENDEL]

Good question, Ted. Kate said window was open and shutters up. Just to consider that. Doesn't make a lot of sense indeed as front door was just next to children's room.

IMHO it would take as much time open window as leaving at once through front door.

 

[Dlk79]

If he acted alone, he wouldn't lose time with camera and passport perhaps because he was enough busy with child. But if he used window to pass child and left through patio door he would take camera and passport, something he's formatted to do.

If he didn't act alone, his motivation might be money and not sex.

With the stakes so high, the focus would have been on speed and leaving no clues, not petty theft. Taking items from the apartment would have slowed him down and just given the police extra clues about who may have done it and opportunities to trace the perpetrator. What's he going to do with passports of the family afterwards? Massive red flag if he tried to move them on. Same with the camera, why risk it when it could be potentially tracked down at some point and traced back to you?

 

[MENDEL]

With the stakes so high, the focus would have been on speed and leaving no clues, not petty theft. Taking items from the apartment would have slowed him down and just given the police extra clues about who may have done it and opportunities to trace the perpetrator. What's he going to do with passports of the family afterwards? Massive red flag if he tried to move them on. Same with the camera, why risk it when it could be potentially tracked down at some point and traced back to you?

DLK, that's correct from the point of view of plan's head, not CB's. Unless CB was clearly told he couldn't touch anything all we know he would do it impulsively.

What to do with passports? I don't know. They said he had hundreds. What for I've never seen anyone talking about it.

 

[MENDEL]

Good question, Ted. Kate said window was open and shutters up. Just to consider that. Doesn't make a lot of sense indeed as front door was just next to children's room.

IMHO it would take as much time open window as leaving at once through front door.

ETA: unless he used patio door. Then window makes sense, but that's not a well-planned abduction and it seems to be so.

 

[Dlk79]

Good question, Ted. Kate said window was open and shutters up. Just to consider that. Doesn't make a lot of sense indeed as front door was just next to children's room.

IMHO it would take as much time open window as leaving at once through front door.

Depends though. Lets assume he had got hold of the front door key somehow using a connection at the Ocean club. If he just went in through the front door and back out again it leaves the police with a huge clue, especially as he may not have known about the patio door being unlocked as you point out. So as the patio door can only be unlocked from the inside, the only way of getting into the apartment is through the front door. So now the police know, there must have been some inside influence to the job as the perpetrator must have had a key to get in. A good way to put the police off that scent would be to open the window once inside, making it look like someone has used that as the access point to get in.

 

[MENDEL]

That's a good point, DLK