Manorville Butcher ** ONLY **

[Peter Brendt]

I first asked myself Seaslug's original question when news broke that Shannan may have died of an accident. I realized that all of my previous theories were flawed since I was putting too much weight into Shannan's circumstances and the area of Oak Beach. I looked at the entire case differently, and started with Jessica Taylor and JD#6. From there, I was quickly able to identify a POI based on some logic which I'll share with you now. I've stopped posting in the last 6 months or so because it seems nobody here has any interest or valuable contributions to my theory, and prefers instead to focus on Shannan, conspiracy theories and "old hat".

So here's my take, Seaslug:

1) JT and JD6 were found in a remote area of Manorville and were found in such close proximity to each other that the killer had to have previously frequented the area to re-locate the area 3 years after initially dumping JT.

2) If the above is accepted as being a true statement, then it follows that there are a relatively small number of (reasonable) reasons why someone would have frequented that particular area, including:

a) They live nearby or grew up in the area
b) They are a hunter (since the area is used by hunters and JD6 was found by pheasant hunters)
c) They are a landscaper (since JT was found on a pile of sticks presumably dumped illegally by a landscaper)
d) They are avid 4-wheeler/dirtbike rider (since there are trails in these woods evidenced by ATV barriers and nearby ATV "pits")
e) They are active in nature hiking or outdoor activities (i.e., fishing on the Peconic, hunting, birding)
f) They work nearby
g) They regularly attend events at nearby (within 1 mile) locations (such as the Peconic River Sportsmans Club shooting range where the waterfowl hunting association SSWA.org holds their regular shooting practices)
h) They perform illegal dumping, as the Pine Barrens have had this issue
i) They have (or had) friends or family that live in the area

3) Since it is a fact that human remains from JT and JD#6 were also found in Cedar Beach and Gilgo Beach within 1000-2500 yards of each other, we can posit that the killer was also intimately familiar with the specific area of Ocean Parkway.

4) If #3 above is accepted as being a true statement, then it follows that there are a relatively small number of (reasonable) reasons why someone would have frequented that particular area, including:

a) They live nearby or grew up in Gilgo Beach
b) They use the Cedar Beach or Gilgo Beach facilities (beach access for fishing/swimming, boat ramp, volleyball)
c) They are a hunter (since the area is used by a waterfowl hunting club SSWA.org for an annual Duck Boat Show)
d) They attend (or attended) events at Cedar or Gilgo Beach
e) They have (or had) friends or family that live in the area

In #2 and #4 above, I've tried to limit the (reasonable) reasons why someone would be familiar with those specific areas. If we juxtapose the two lists, we see quite clearly that many of these things can be eliminated (i.e., no ATVs at Cedar Beach, etc.) and can infer that the serial killer:

a) Probably didn't grow up, live near or have friends living in Gilgo Beach (Cedar Beach doesn't have houses) because the population density is so small at Gilgo and therefore likely lives, works or has friends in Manorville
b) Possibly is a waterfowl hunter
c) Possibly is a member of the SSWA.org and was so in or prior to the year 2000
d) Attend (or attended) events at Cedar, Gilgo Beach and Manorville (within 1 mile of where victims found)
e) Possibly is into fishing (since fishing both the Atlantic and Peconic is a possibility), although this is less likely since saltwater and freshwater fishing are completely dissimilar)
f) Possibly is a landscaper
g) Probably lives in Manorville since the larger, more difficult to transport body parts (torso) were deposited there whereas easily transportable, identifiable body parts (teeth, fingerprints) were taken to a remote area.

My take: there's a waterfowl hunter that lives in Manorville (3-5 minutes from the scene) and was active in 2000 in the waterfowl club that operates in Cedar Beach and Halsey Manor Rd. in Manorville. He's the only one I could identify that has the right characteristics, including primarily (a) a landscaping company in Manorville, and (b) the fact that he had a traumatic experience during his youth (involving a female relative that killed for money) that could easily have led to a subconscious hatred of women.

You know, the duck hunter sounds a lot of better to me after AC is out of that theory?
And of course, Manorville is local. To know, where the locals illegally dispose of their trash, walk their dogs or in which corner the go for pheasant hunting demands more than just geographic knowledge. It demands knowledge about the community.
Opposite to that, the dump sites on Cedar Beach and Gilgo demand no special knowledge about the people living there, just a little area knowledge.

 

[Peter Brendt]

I have never seen the pics of where JT was found. That appears to be a very isolated area.. He/They almost seems like they go out of his/their way to place the torso there. You said there is no exit ramp at that particular spot? Someone who isn't a locale or wasn't raised there would have no idea where that place is. If it was a simple dump and go, why not do it in a more convient place? The reason why I say that, is because I have heard people say it was a dump and go. I haven't heard MSM really say it was staged, just that she was dumped there. But if it was a simple dump, why go onto that little area, especially when it is known as an illegal trash dump, and their would be locales going through that area?

What about the area where the rest of their body parts were found, so you have pics of those areas? Is it just as isolated from view, but still was an area frequented by passerbys? Also I read somewhere(maybe this thread) that one victims foot still had nail polished toe nails. Does that indicate he kept the bodies, somewhere hidden? I think it was PB who mentioned they were possibly dumped in the area they were, just to in a way give the finger to LISK? Almost like a dog marks its terratory, like Manorville saying back off?

The areas where the body parts were found, did the police end up searching the area? Only to have them appear there in March? Do i have that correct?

MSN didn't use the word "staging". But then, how would you call placing a packet with a torso on a pile of sticks right near to a path where somebody walks his dog daily and locals go to dispose illegally of their trash (as in area with pretty much traffic for the general circumstances in Manorville)?

 

[Peter Brendt]

Fyi, a member of my extended family was the prosecutor in the Cottingham case.
Anorher extended family member [same side of the family] was one of Ted Bundy`s defense lawyers ~not too proud of that one. My brother worked with a detective in warrants and this detective turned out to be a serial killer who is now on death row. Those are a few reasons why I am so interested in SKs. That and that these creatures just seems so alien and demonic to me, but many appear too damn normal.

Normally, I don't do it, but this calls so loud for it. So, as an exception, I quote one of my own books :blushing:
"Also monsters have reasons. That we can't see them or would think of those reasons as crazy and insane, doesn't mean, those reasons don't exist"
(Inside Mind)
What makes them so creepy is, that we don't understand their reasons. Only, those reasons are often not really hard to understand, we only try not to think too much about them. But if we see their reasons, we know where to find them.

 

[Seaslug44]

THat is what concerns me. Just one faulty assumption (such as whether it was a staging ---intentional placement for a desired reaction, or someother reason-- can snowball and roll us in the wrong direction.

And it is not uncommon for LE to intentionally release misinformation for a legitimate purpose such as to avoid copycats, etc., and I wouldnt put it passed them to ask witnesses to cooperate in their efforts.

True for some law enforcement agencies but not Suffolk County. I challenge you to show examples of how Suffolk County Homicide has ever used such tactics in connection with any case.

It is my understanding that Suffolk County has strict rules prohibiting any department from releasing false information to the media or public (even if it is for a good purpose).

 

[Peter Brendt]

True for some law enforcement agencies but not Suffolk County. I challenge you to show examples of how Suffolk County Homicide has ever used such tactics in connection with any case.

It is my understanding that Suffolk County has strict rules prohibiting any department from releasing false information to the media or public (even if it is for a good purpose).

Ot in other words, all the misleading as of yet was in their conclusions and political bias. Like Dormer when he first said, there is no SK. :floorlaugh:

 

[LINative13]

You know, the duck hunter sounds a lot of better to me after AC is out of that theory?
And of course, Manorville is local. To know, where the locals illegally dispose of their trash, walk their dogs or in which corner the go for pheasant hunting demands more than just geographic knowledge. It demands knowledge about the community.
Opposite to that, the dump sites on Cedar Beach and Gilgo demand no special knowledge about the people living there, just a little area knowledge.

Hmmm....I would re read my post about the GB4 location if I were you in the GB4/SG thread. You might rethink this statement about how one would need very intimate knowldege of the location where the GB4 were found.

 

[Peter Brendt]

Hmmm....I would re read my post about the GB4 location if I were you in the GB4/SG thread. You might rethink this statement about how one would need very intimate knowldege of the location where the GB4 were found.

I read it. But then, I don't need to agree? And since this GB4 and not GB5 related, why we are discussing this here. LISK and Manorville are anyway NOT the same guy.

 

[LINative13]

I would take my word about the area if I were you. In fact I would be happy to answer any questions you may have about the other sites along OP. I have spent my entire life down there; hell I have even had sex on ocean parkway. I know it....better than anyone on this board, and probably better than our serial killers. You wanna utilize an asset? Or do you wanna talk down to me? Either way; I dont care. I was surfing the beaches along ocean parkway while our killer was still getting turned down by civilian girls before he switched to prostitues.

 

[Peter Brendt]

I would take my word about the area if I were you. In fact I would be happy to answer any questions you may have about the other sites along OP. I have spent my entire life down there; hell I have even had sex on ocean parkway. I know it....better than anyone on this board, and probably better than our serial killers. You wanna utilize an asset? Or do you wanna talk down to me? Either way; I dont care. I was surfing the beaches along ocean parkway while our killer was still getting turned down by civilian girls before he switched to prostitues.

Oh, I don't doubt your knowledge of the area. That is not the point. I think, you overestimate the knowledge needed to pick such a place. But I find it very intriguing, that now, a year after I gave up begging for the help of locals repeatedly, you offer your assistance. Thanks a lot for that. Here is, what I wanted for a long time:

- photos of the access to Hemlock Grove (as in how to get there)
- positions of traffic cams including the bridge area where the expressway leads onto the island.
- information about the ground conditions on Cedar Beach (we got a lot about the marsh and Gilgo, but would you need a 4WD at Cedar Beach? Would a normal SUV do or would you need high end gear?)
- what are the currents right off the beaches? Going South all the day or shifting?
- how far goes the shallow water from Gilgo, Cedar and Jonas Beach (in other words, how near could a boat come to the beaches).

and that's only what comes from the top of my head. I have to dig out my list I abandoned a year ago.

 

[LINative13]

I was not on this site a year ago. Happy to help:

Hemlock COVE: Accessed on the Bay side by boat only. A channel branches off the state channel guiding boaters into the cove. From the ocean side you can either (now assuming we are not following laws): walk from gilgo or cedar, access it by 4 x 4 through the NY state land or 4 x 4 access from the sore thumb (just east of OB)
Cedar Beach: its a beach. I could drive my jeep on it no problem. You are not going to get away with a Subaru station wagon though.
Currents: they run east, west and south dependind on wear you are in relation to sandbars and the wave height.
How far could I brinng a boat there?: well it depends on the conditions and the size of the boat. If I took my little 25 footer on a calm day, I could run it right onto shore and just push it back out into deeper water when I wanted to leave.

Traffic cams: Hmm let me research that on chief.

 

[Samantha Spade]

True for some law enforcement agencies but not Suffolk County. I challenge you to show examples of how Suffolk County Homicide has ever used such tactics in connection with any case.

It is my understanding that Suffolk County has strict rules prohibiting any department from releasing false information to the media or public (even if it is for a good purpose).

_______________________
Seaslug, I am not familiar with any and not from the area, so i'd take your word for it over my speculation, but it is possible that their tactics may have been revamped once they utilized the services of the FBI's behavioral analysis team.

 

[Peter Brendt]

I was not on this site a year ago. Happy to help:

Hemlock COVE: Accessed on the Bay side by boat only. A channel branches off the state channel guiding boaters into the cove. From the ocean side you can either (now assuming we are not following laws): walk from gilgo or cedar, access it by 4 x 4 through the NY state land or 4 x 4 access from the sore thumb (just east of OB)
Cedar Beach: its a beach. I could drive my jeep on it no problem. You are not going to get away with a Subaru station wagon though.
Currents: they run east, west and south dependind on wear you are in relation to sandbars and the wave height.
How far could I brinng a boat there?: well it depends on the conditions and the size of the boat. If I took my little 25 footer on a calm day, I could run it right onto shore and just push it back out into deeper water when I wanted to leave.

Traffic cams: Hmm let me research that on chief.

So, it is possible, that Manorville brought in partial remains at night? I suspected him to have them stored away somewhere else and only transferred them to the island when all media hell about LISK broke lose. But I would have assumed, police would patrol a little more, at least for some time, after the first bodies were found. Now I'm not sure whether I overestimate SCPD here or underestimate Manorville's nerves. Thanks a lot for the descriptions!

 

[scandi]

I first asked myself Seaslug's original question when news broke that Shannan may have died of an accident. I realized that all of my previous theories were flawed since I was putting too much weight into Shannan's circumstances and the area of Oak Beach. I looked at the entire case differently, and started with Jessica Taylor and JD#6. From there, I was quickly able to identify a POI based on some logic which I'll share with you now. I've stopped posting in the last 6 months or so because it seems nobody here has any interest or valuable contributions to my theory, and prefers instead to focus on Shannan, conspiracy theories and "old hat".

So here's my take, Seaslug:

1) JT and JD6 were found in a remote area of Manorville and were found in such close proximity to each other that the killer had to have previously frequented the area to re-locate the area 3 years after initially dumping JT.

2) If the above is accepted as being a true statement, then it follows that there are a relatively small number of (reasonable) reasons why someone would have frequented that particular area, including:

a) They live nearby or grew up in the area
b) They are a hunter (since the area is used by hunters and JD6 was found by pheasant hunters)
c) They are a landscaper (since JT was found on a pile of sticks presumably dumped illegally by a landscaper)
d) They are avid 4-wheeler/dirtbike rider (since there are trails in these woods evidenced by ATV barriers and nearby ATV "pits")
e) They are active in nature hiking or outdoor activities (i.e., fishing on the Peconic, hunting, birding)
f) They work nearby
g) They regularly attend events at nearby (within 1 mile) locations (such as the Peconic River Sportsmans Club shooting range where the waterfowl hunting association SSWA.org holds their regular shooting practices)
h) They perform illegal dumping, as the Pine Barrens have had this issue
i) They have (or had) friends or family that live in the area

3) Since it is a fact that human remains from JT and JD#6 were also found in Cedar Beach and Gilgo Beach within 1000-2500 yards of each other, we can posit that the killer was also intimately familiar with the specific area of Ocean Parkway.

4) If #3 above is accepted as being a true statement, then it follows that there are a relatively small number of (reasonable) reasons why someone would have frequented that particular area, including:

a) They live nearby or grew up in Gilgo Beach
b) They use the Cedar Beach or Gilgo Beach facilities (beach access for fishing/swimming, boat ramp, volleyball)
c) They are a hunter (since the area is used by a waterfowl hunting club SSWA.org for an annual Duck Boat Show)
d) They attend (or attended) events at Cedar or Gilgo Beach
e) They have (or had) friends or family that live in the area

In #2 and #4 above, I've tried to limit the (reasonable) reasons why someone would be familiar with those specific areas. If we juxtapose the two lists, we see quite clearly that many of these things can be eliminated (i.e., no ATVs at Cedar Beach, etc.) and can infer that the serial killer:

a) Probably didn't grow up, live near or have friends living in Gilgo Beach (Cedar Beach doesn't have houses) because the population density is so small at Gilgo and therefore likely lives, works or has friends in Manorville
b) Possibly is a waterfowl hunter
c) Possibly is a member of the SSWA.org and was so in or prior to the year 2000
d) Attend (or attended) events at Cedar, Gilgo Beach and Manorville (within 1 mile of where victims found)
e) Possibly is into fishing (since fishing both the Atlantic and Peconic is a possibility), although this is less likely since saltwater and freshwater fishing are completely dissimilar)
f) Possibly is a landscaper
g) Probably lives in Manorville since the larger, more difficult to transport body parts (torso) were deposited there whereas easily transportable, identifiable body parts (teeth, fingerprints) were taken to a remote area.

My take: there's a waterfowl hunter that lives in Manorville (3-5 minutes from the scene) and was active in 2000 in the waterfowl club that operates in Cedar Beach and Halsey Manor Rd. in Manorville. He's the only one I could identify that has the right characteristics, including primarily (a) a landscaping company in Manorville, and (b) the fact that he had a traumatic experience during his youth (involving a female relative that killed for money) that could easily have led to a subconscious hatred of women.

Thanks Inspctrgadget, I remember seeing a slideshow here on the forum with pic's of him at a big BBQ or picnic. Do you know where that can be found? It is amazing how he fits all of your points. Good to see you again.

 

[Baily]

I was surfing the beaches along ocean parkway while our killer was still getting turned down by civilian girls before he switched to prostitues.

My first thought with the remains location was an OBI connection, how many "civilians" turned him down at the OBI?

 

[LINative13]

So, it is possible, that Manorville brought in partial remains at night? I suspected him to have them stored away somewhere else and only transferred them to the island when all media hell about LISK broke lose. But I would have assumed, police would patrol a little more, at least for some time, after the first bodies were found. Now I'm not sure whether I overestimate SCPD here or underestimate Manorville's nerves. Thanks a lot for the descriptions!

The conditions of the remains would answer SOOOOOOOOOOO many quesitons

 

[LINative13]

Dude,
If I had a skull in my freezer and drove down ocean parkway when there were cops everywhere....unless one was behind me...I could easily chuck it out my window.

Just west of Hemlock Cove is another cove. We all call it the coast guard station because there used to be a coast guard station but they knocked it down. This one is less frequented by boaters. Im gonna check this ***** out as well.

 

[Seaslug44]

So, it is possible, that Manorville brought in partial remains at night? I suspected him to have them stored away somewhere else and only transferred them to the island when all media hell about LISK broke lose. But I would have assumed, police would patrol a little more, at least for some time, after the first bodies were found. Now I'm not sure whether I overestimate SCPD here or underestimate Manorville's nerves. Thanks a lot for the descriptions!

Peter, so you are thinking that the Manorville Butcher was lured to Ocean Parkway after the GB4 were found to place JT's and Jane Doe #6's remains there after the fact at night while the police were still investigating during the day? Also possibly Jane Doe #7 bag of bones (Davis Park)?

 

[Seaslug44]

but that would not apply to Jane Doe #8 and her baby because it was reported that Jane Doe #8's skull was there long enough for tree roots to grow through.

 

[LINative13]

Davis Park by the way is a pretty exclusive neighborhood.

 

[sean62185]

but that would not apply to Jane Doe #8 and her baby because it was reported that Jane Doe #8's skull was there long enough for tree roots to grow through.

Interesting.. I was always under the assumption, the body parts were placed there only after LE had searched those areas already. So atleast 2 of the victims body parts had been there all along and were missed?