Theory: The Mechanical and Environmental Inconsistencies in the Narrative
After reviewing the official reports, historical weather data, and the physical evidence regarding the disappearance of Susan Swedell, I have identified several critical inconsistencies that challenge the prevailing theory of a random mechanical breakdown. My analysis is based on verified case facts, though the conclusions drawn below represent my own theory (IMO) regarding the sequence of events.
The Probability of the Location
The prevailing theory that the car was sabotaged at Susan’s workplace relies on the assumption that a perpetrator could predict exactly when and where the vehicle would fail. Mechanical sabotage is inherently unpredictable. A loosened petcock could have resulted in a breakdown miles away on a dark highway shoulder or in a busy intersection, neither of which grants the perpetrator control over the environment.
My theory is that the location was the variable being controlled, not the mechanical failure. The fact that Susan arrived safely at a lit, populated gas station suggests she chose to stop there. IMO, the mechanical issue was likely fabricated or inflicted on-site to justify her presence at the location. This aligns with statements from Washington County Criminal Intelligence Analyst Blake Trantham, who noted that the radiator plug had been loosened in a way that would be "difficult to do just accidentally" (KARE 11 Staff, 2025).
The Pre-Existing Connection to "Dale"
We must contextualize the stop at the station with Susan’s behavior in the days leading up to her disappearance. Official reports confirm that Susan had been frequenting telephone "party lines" in the weeks prior (The Disappearance of Susan Anne Swedell, n.d.). Furthermore, Susan had received phone calls at her workplace from a man identified as "Dale," and explicitly confided in a friend that she was "planning to meet a new guy" that night (KARE 11 Staff, 2025).
IMO, the most damning evidence of a planned meeting is the discrepancy in her statements. While she told her mother she was coming straight home to watch movies (KSTP Staff, 2025), she admitted the meeting to her peer. This fits the profile of a "Surprise" scenario—she likely intended to bring him home to introduce him to her family, explaining why she maintained the "coming home" timeline to her mother while acknowledging the meeting to her friend. This pre-existing connection confirms that "Dale" was not a stranger she met by chance at the gas station, but a planned rendezvous.
Behavioral Evidence: Intent to Return
The state of Susan’s personal effects and attire further contradicts the narrative that she voluntarily left the scene for a ride home. Susan had changed into a skirt before leaving work, attire that was notably impractical for a blizzard but consistent with dressing for a planned social encounter (The Charley Project, n.d.).
Crucially, Susan left her purse and prescription glasses inside her vehicle. IMO, leaving the glasses is a significant behavioral indicator. As a nearsighted individual, Susan may have removed them to improve her appearance for a first meeting—a common behavior for someone wanting to make a good impression. However, the decision to leave them (and her purse) behind suggests she did not intend to be gone long. If she were leaving for a ride home, she would need her glasses to see and her purse for essentials. Leaving them implies she expected to return to her car.
The Mechanical Evidence of the Driver's Seat
This theory is further supported by the physical evidence of the driver’s seat. Official case files state the seat was found pushed back to a position inconsistent with Susan’s height (The Charley Project, n.d.).
The logical conclusion drawn from this evidence is that Susan was not the last person to drive the vehicle. IMO, the adjusted seat indicates a larger individual entered the vehicle and drove it to its final parking spot. If Susan had parked the car herself, the seat would have remained in the position adjusted for her height. The necessity to move the seat suggests a taller driver took control of the vehicle at the station to move it away from the pumps.
The Logical Inconsistency of the Plow Warning
According to detectives reviewing the case file, the attendant stated she told Susan to move her car from the pumps because "they're going to plow here" (Divine, 2018).
My theory is that this instruction is logically inconsistent with the behavior of a helpful witness assisting a stranded motorist. If the plow was not due until the following morning, there was no immediate operational need to force a customer with a supposedly overheating engine to restart and move her vehicle during a blizzard. IMO, this statement sounds like a reason that could be used to describe why the vehicle was found in a different location than where she initially pulled in. Furthermore, prioritizing a future plowing schedule over the immediate safety of a customer reflects a concern for site maintenance that is uncharacteristic of a standard shift attendant, sounding more like a directive from management or ownership.
Environmental Evidence and the Sport Wheels
We must also look at the environmental facts of that night. Historical weather data for Lake Elmo, MN on January 19, 1988, records Heavy Snow (+SN), Fog (FG), and Blowing Snow (BLSN) with over half an inch of liquid precipitation falling (Weather Underground, 1988).
Despite these conditions, the gas station attendant provided a specific description of the suspect’s vehicle, noting it was a "light-colored older model car with sport wheels" (Divine, 2018). IMO, identifying specific "sport wheels" on a slush-covered car through a window, through fog and heavy snow, from 30-50 feet away is visually improbable. The probability of accurately identifying rim style on a vehicle covered in road salt and snow, under canopy lighting at night, is extremely low.
The Suspect Description Shift
Finally, we must scrutinize the suspect profile. For nearly 37 years, official bulletins listed the suspect's hair color as "Brown" or unspecified, and composite sketches implied a suspect with dark hair (NamUs, n.d.). However, in January 2025, the Washington County Sheriff's Office released a new description explicitly looking for a man with "shoulder-length sandy blonde hair" (KARE 11 Staff, 2025).
IMO, this massive shift in the description after four decades raises serious questions about the reliability of the original witness accounts. If the attendant originally said "blonde," why was the public looking for a dark-haired man for 37 years?
Conclusion
My theory stands that Susan was lured to that location, not stranded there. The pre-existing contact with "Dale," her choice of clothing, and the fact that she left her glasses behind all point to a planned meeting with the expectation of returning to her car. The mechanical alibi and the physical evidence of the seat position confirm that the scene was managed by a second party. If anyone has the podcats episodes from 2018, please guide me to them, as I have been unsuccessful in finding any official statements from the gas station attendant despite being informed (by Reminder)and finding evidence (on PodBay.com) that such interviews did exist at one point, but are not accessible at this time.
References
Divine, M. (2018, January 19).
30 years later, police still hope to find missing Lake Elmo woman. The St. Paul Pioneer Press.
https://www.twincities.com/2018/01/...e-still-hope-to-find-missing-lake-elmo-woman/
Harlow, T. (2018, January 22).
Aggressive search launched for Lake Elmo woman missing for 30 years. Star Tribune.
https://www.startribune.com/aggress...ke-elmo-woman-missing-for-30-years/470143803/
KARE 11 Staff. (2025, January 21).
Investigators asking inmates for help in 1988 Susan Swedell missing person case[Video]. KARE 11 News.
https://www.kare11.com/article/news...t-description-change-susan-swedell-cold-case/
KSTP Staff. (2025, February 13).
Washington County asks for any leads on birthday of woman missing since 1988. KSTP 5 Eyewitness News.
Washington County asks for any leads on birthday of woman missing since 1988
NamUs. (n.d.).
Missing Person / NamUs #MP335. National Missing and Unidentified Persons System. Retrieved December 29, 2025, from
Missing Person / NamUs #MP335
The Disappearance of Susan Anne Swedell. (n.d.).
r/UnresolvedMysteries [Forum Post]. Reddit. Retrieved December 29, 2025.
The Charley Project. (n.d.).
Susan Anne Swedell. Retrieved December 29, 2025, from
Susan Anne Swedell – The Charley Project
Weather Underground. (1988).
Historical Weather for KMSP: January 19, 1988. Retrieved December 29, 2025, from
Minneapolis, MN Weather History | Weather Underground
kstp.com
