MO - Lisa Irwin, 10 mos, Kansas City, 4 Oct 2011

[Razz]

DB killing theories vs BL snatched theories
0 3

I' m not trying to be....irreverent, or obnoxious. Sometimes one needs to find a little humor among all this awfulness. :laughcry:

 

[Razz]

Oops. That was supposed to read DB Killing Theories: 0 vs BL Snatching Theories: 3

That's what I get for being a smart you know what :freakedout:

 

[Razz]

And very tired.fftobed:

 

[MzOpinion8d]

<mod snip> please explain how an overweight, slightly/very drunk woman can run down to the river carrying a chunky but dead baby, (whether the baby is 5 or 20 pounds) throw her down the embankment and then run back home all before her boys know she's missing! Oh, and all this in the dark. And no witnesses! And before her husband returns home from work. If put out for a vote on this probability, it would probably come back at......1%! Unless she is super athlete extrodinaire.
In which case it might bump it up to 5%. :-0,

I don't think DB was nearly as impaired as she would like everyone to believe.

The little boys were asleep. Super easy to leave and come back and they wouldn't have any idea because they're sound asleep.

Plus, I think she had assistance.

 

[Razz]

Can you expound on your theory? From start to finish. Much like askfornina laid her theory out. Who gave her assistance? How did she contact thethem? When did baby Lisa die? No fair giving bits and pieces.

 

[redheadedgal]

this is not a thread for theories (that one has been locked like most of this forum -- am confused why this one is even open) but even if it were, no poster must lay out from "start to finish" what they believed occurred in KC that night. seems like more info is desired for the mere opportunity to dismiss / criticize / etc.

the amount of pushback against a DBDI (deb bradley did it) position within this thread lately is quite illuminating for me. and no, i won't elaborate.

 

[nova1998]

Here are some general notes that I jotted down for myself, if anyone might be interested:

Decline in infant abductions from hospitals vs. An Increase in Abductions From Homes and Other places
In 2008, just a few years before LI's disappearance, NBC News reported on a recent study by the American Journal of Nursing. Between 1993 and 2006, the number of newborns and babies abducted from hospitals and health centers by non-family individuals fell by nearly half compared to an earlier period. Conversely, abductions from homes, parking lots, shopping malls, and other public places, had almost doubled.

The decrease in the number of abductions from hospital settings were most likely due, the study said, due to increased security measures, training, and protocols at hospitals.
(Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26532421/...htmare-babies-stolen-their-beds/#.VLbLCdLF-Sp)


Number of infant abuctions per year
In the same report, data was included from the National center for Missing and Abducted Children which stated that the number of infant abductions by non-family members had fallen from about 14 a year to fewer than 10. They are very few in number, but they do exist.

Prices for Babies
According to one site, the street value of kidnapped babies can range from $60 to $120,000.
(Source: www.amfor.net/StolenBabies/html)

A figure from a another source ("In the Market for Babies") reflected a $1,000 to $50, 000 cost for a black market baby. An earlier figure from a Los Angeles Times report in 1996 had the potential street value at $80,000. The baby brokers are believed to retain the majority of the transaction fee.

Private Adoption Agencies in Missouri
I was just curious and wanted to read up about them to about the demand for adoptions in this particular state. Some received very poor reviews in part to the high pressure tactics by agency reps to the parents who were considering giving up their babies, a lack of promised resources to parents both adopting and giving up their babies, allegations that they were all about the money, and so forth.

The Two Possible Sightings and "Blink" (by Malcolm Gladwell)
Years ago, I read a book by Malcolm Gladwell called Blink. In it he talks about his theory called "Thinsplicing" whereby snap judgements (gut instinct or intuition) by people are often very usual and even correct. Assuming that the two men who saw the 12:15 AM possible sighting and the 4:15 AM possible sighting were telling the truth, they seemed to be going by their gut instincts (the first wanted his wife to call the police, the second wanted to go back and give the man and baby a ride; both thought something was quite wrong).

The 12:15AM Possible Sighting of a man in a t-shirt
With the weather being cold and the man in a t-shirt, I wonder if someone may have been watching the home not from outside, but from within a home nearby, and made an impromptu decision to enter the home and take the baby at the time when they did. Basically, they'd thought about taking this child, and made a spontaneous decision to leave their home when they did...They were focused on committing this crime, that they did not stop to put on a jacket or sweater.

We know quite a bit about people living next door on either side and a couple houses down, but who may have been living across the street from them to the north and to the south, let's say three or four houses in each direction?

 

[Deleted member 39678]

The affidavit also revealed that "On October 17, 2011, an FBI cadaver dog was brought into the residence upon consent of (Jeremy) Irwin and Bradley. The cadaver dog indicated a positive 'hit' for the scent of a deceased human in an area of the floor of Bradley's bedroom near the bed."

BBM

This is why I think Cyndy Short made a good point about LE failing to remove carpet from the bedroom. The affidavit clearly says that the "hit" was made in an area of the floor and did not mention that the alert was made on any object laying on the floor.

Even if the dog did alert on something laying on the floor wouldn't it be wise to take a sample of the carpet to check it at a lab for evidence? What about scent transfer from the floor to the object. Or vice versa. Hard to tell when you don't collect a carpet sample. JMO.

http://www.kmbc.com/Lisa-Irwin-Search-Warrant-Reveals-Cadaver-Dog-Hit/12264286

 

[Razz]

this is not a thread for theories (that one has been locked like most of this forum -- am confused why this one is even open) but even if it were, no poster must lay out from "start to finish" what they believed occurred in KC that night. seems like more info is desired for the mere opportunity to dismiss / criticize / etc.

the amount of pushback against a DBDI (deb bradley did it) position within this thread lately is quite illuminating for me. and no, i won't elaborate.

Thank you. For not elaborating.

 

[Razz]

Here are some general notes that I jotted down for myself, if anyone might be interested:

Decline in infant abductions from hospitals vs. An Increase in Abductions From Homes and Other places
In 2008, just a few years before LI's disappearance, NBC News reported on a recent study by the American Journal of Nursing. Between 1993 and 2006, the number of newborns and babies abducted from hospitals and health centers by non-family individuals fell by nearly half compared to an earlier period. Conversely, abductions from homes, parking lots, shopping malls, and other public places, had almost doubled.

The decrease in the number of abductions from hospital settings were most likely due, the study said, due to increased security measures, training, and protocols at hospitals.
(Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26532421/...htmare-babies-stolen-their-beds/#.VLbLCdLF-Sp)


Number of infant abuctions per year
In the same report, data was included from the National center for Missing and Abducted Children which stated that the number of infant abductions by non-family members had fallen from about 14 a year to fewer than 10. They are very few in number, but they do exist.

Prices for Babies
According to one site, the street value of kidnapped babies can range from $60 to $120,000.
(Source: www.amfor.net/StolenBabies/html)

A figure from a another source ("In the Market for Babies") reflected a $1,000 to $50, 000 cost for a black market baby. An earlier figure from a Los Angeles Times report in 1996 had the potential street value at $80,000. The baby brokers are believed to retain the majority of the transaction fee.

Private Adoption Agencies in Missouri
I was just curious and wanted to read up about them to about the demand for adoptions in this particular state. Some received very poor reviews in part to the high pressure tactics by agency reps to the parents who were considering giving up their babies, a lack of promised resources to parents both adopting and giving up their babies, allegations that they were all about the money, and so forth.

The Two Possible Sightings and "Blink" (by Malcolm Gladwell)
Years ago, I read a book by Malcolm Gladwell called Blink. In it he talks about his theory called "Thinsplicing" whereby snap judgements (gut instinct or intuition) by people are often very usual and even correct. Assuming that the two men who saw the 12:15 AM possible sighting and the 4:15 AM possible sighting were telling the truth, they seemed to be going by their gut instincts (the first wanted his wife to call the police, the second wanted to go back and give the man and baby a ride; both thought something was quite wrong).

The 12:15AM Possible Sighting of a man in a t-shirt
With the weather being cold and the man in a t-shirt, I wonder if someone may have been watching the home not from outside, but from within a home nearby, and made an impromptu decision to enter the home and take the baby at the time when they did. Basically, they'd thought about taking this child, and made a spontaneous decision to leave their home when they did...They were focused on committing this crime, that they did not stop to put on a jacket or sweater.

We know quite a bit about people living next door on either side and a couple houses down, but who may have been living across the street from them to the north and to the south, let's say three or four houses in each direction?

Good point about the guy in the t-shirt. But I can't help but think these t-shirt guys are not very bright and haven't changed from their "day job" or they have no place to change.

 

[askfornina]

Can you expound on your theory? From start to finish. Much like askfornina laid her theory out. Who gave her assistance? How did she contact thethem? When did baby Lisa die? No fair giving bits and pieces.

I definitely wouldn't expect anyone to post their entire theory from start to finish. If someone did, I'd love to read it- but it took me many, many hours to articulate my thoughts on what I believe may have happened that night. Not everyone has the time or desire to write as much as I did. I don't mind bits and pieces. Those are very good questions you are asking, IMO. Here are some more questions- did Deborah call Megan Wright? Why? Who was the man carrying the baby?

I, for one, don't want this thread to be shut down like the rest of the forum. I really dislike the hostility between "sides." I think this case can and should be discussed civilly. Discuss- not argue.

 

[Razz]

Some answers to my questions:

Megan was living in a house 0.4 of a mile north of the BP gas station on N. Brighton.

When dating, she advised she and Tanko would go to the neighborhood in question to visit
Tanko's friend, DENNY on Chelsea. She denied knowing Irwin or Bradley.

The Craig's list ad was in reference to a GPS Megan was trying to sell. (Can't nail this down but some wondered where she came up with a GPS and that perhaps it was stolen out of Irwins car when it had been broken into.

When the Police arrived about BL, Jeremy asked if they thought it could be connected to the car break in.

MW's phone was "floating around" in the household but stated that Dane Digglar Great house had it most of the time on the 3rd and 4th of Oct. When it was returned to her, MW said all the message logs had been deleted.
DDG has admitted to having the phone on those days but was using it to looking for help among his friends to help him get moved into an apartment. He said he was in no way connected to the disappearance of BL. However, DDG was missing the week following BL but stated he was on a hunting trip.

If there was no DNA left behind at the IRWIN home, why did police take samples from Brando and Beagly?

Some observations: This is a neighborhood where, I would think, most people know who each other is. It's a tad hard for me to think that they all weren't aware of each other. Why would Jeremy ask about the car break in along with missing BL to police. Did he suspect it was Tanko and MW who broke into his car? And if so, was he legitimately concerned the two may be related or was he conspiring to shift blame on MW and Tanko from the beginning.
Who is/was Denny on Chelsea? Was he ever looked into. I suspect this is the home the unidentified man with baby was walking to.

If you google earth, it is interesting to see the makeup of the surrounding area. Am still trying to figure out the exact location where the man came out of the woods caught on video.

Am still looking for a map that I can put this all on. I don't mind paying for it so could someone recommend. They have tons in the playstore but can't really find what I'm looking for. Suggestions?! no

 

[nova1998]

Some answers to my questions:


If there was no DNA left behind at the IRWIN home, why did police take samples from Brando and Beagly?

For different places in the house, but also to possibly cross check with any DNA found on a body along with any items found with it at a crime scene ...which they never did find.

 

[tlcya]

Having a viewpoint or opinion that differs is pushback. Interesting.

 

[Razz]

Have just finished reading askfornina's collection of newspaper articles regarding this case. It took 2 1/2 days. I have not yet gone through all the videos. Just some questions:

1. Somewhere I read that MW had gone to a Waffle House early in the am of Oct. 4. Anyone know where that Waffle House was located?

2). I am uncomfortable about Mr. Thompson and his "sighting" of the man holding the baby. His description of how the baby was being held and what she was wearing was identical to the couple's description who saw the man walking with the baby on Chelsea. The only difference was the description of the man holding the baby.

3) Did Mr. Abeyta's quest to help find BL, infuence Thompson's selection of Brando? Abeyta's profile matched Mr. Brando
to a tee. Where did Mr. A get the pictures for the "line up? Was Thompson's background explored at all? Would he have had an interest in coming up with sighting and or his selection of Brando?

4) Det. Zink mentioned that she couldn't believe how many kids Lisa's age go through the Wal Mart lines. I wonder if they pulled tape to verify Brando's alibi.

5) KCPD searched behind Stroud's chicken restaurant twice. Where was this located and why search there.

6) Amy and David ( last name unknown) of Johnson County KS were visited numerous times by the police about their 11 month old daughter who looked surprisingly like Lisa. Was a photo of this child ever shown to Bradley and Irwin? Seems it would have saved time and aggravation had they done so.

7) I can't recall where I read it ( possibly Ruen's interview with MWposted on his blogs labeled 2011) where she mentioned she and Tanko used to visit a friend of Tanko's by the name of DENNY on Chelsea St.


8) Picerno says that Bradley never took a lie detector test but Bradley said she did. (?!!)

I am technically impaired. I don't know how to paste and cut articles. I'm tense writing this as I keep hitting the wrong button and all sorts of options pop up. I'm afraid it will erase all I've written.

 

[MzOpinion8d]

Can you expound on your theory? From start to finish. Much like askfornina laid her theory out. Who gave her assistance? How did she contact thethem? When did baby Lisa die? No fair giving bits and pieces.

I'll be honest with you...about 50% of my "theory"is based on my personal interpretations of both verbal and body language and behavior, and around another 25% is based on info that I can't link because it's considered rumor.
I don't think I'm allowed to say who I think assisted her, but it's not Jeremy and it is a family member. Hopefully that's vague enough to be allowed under TOS.

I think Lisa most likely died accidentally. I think DB knew she'd get a lot of attention and concern being the mom of a missing baby whereas she'd get a lot of criticism and condemnation as a negligent mom. She's appears to have narcissistic tendencies. Example: refusing to speak with local media, insisting on only national media. If one's helpless infant daughter is missing, you would think one would want to speak to every media outlet that asks, to get as much coverage as possible.

I found it strange that the pics chosen for the missing poster were several months old and there weren't many recent pics available. I found it strange that Lisa's reported height and weight were clearly not accurate. I found it strange when DB was quoted saying she had no comment because they were grieving. To me grieving occurs when there's a death or permanent loss. I think parents would grieve a missing child when it's clear there's not much hope, but soon after the child goes missing it's a bizarre term to use.

The refusal to be interviewed separately by LE is huge for me. There is no excuse for that. They had an attorney - a free one at that - who would have been present during the interview. People with nothing to hide, hide nothing, as Dr Phil says.

My initial thought when this happened was that Lisa had been sold. I still feel that's a small possibility, but think accidental death is more likely.

 

[Deleted member 39678]

According to Picerno, Jeremy and Deborah were interviewed separately by police, without an attorney, for a total of 19 hours on Oct. 4. Two days later on Oct. 6, police interviewed them again separately for a total of nine hours without an attorney. On Oct. 8, the parents were interview again for approximately three hours. It was during this third interview that, according to Picerno, things turned “nasty.”

This is why any refusal to be interviewed separately doesn't bother me at all. Lisa's parents had already been interviewed separately for many hours before there was a breakdown in communication between them and police.

Often I see it stated that Jeremy and Deborah "refused to be interviewed separately" without any acknowledgement that they did in fact willingly undergo multiple hours of separate interviews.

That gives the uninformed reader the impression that they were trying to hide something. I like to look at the LE interviews as a whole and not just one minor part. The fact that they immediately cooperated with LE and underwent multiple interviews (when it matters most) means a lot more to me then following a lawyers advice later on to terminate a hostile interrogation. JMO.

http://fox4kc.com/2011/11/11/baby-lisa-family-attorney-accusations-of-noncooperation-‘fantasy’/

 

[askfornina]

Razz, you are doing a really great job catching up on the past 3 years. I've been slowly writing a response to you for the past few days re: Megan Wright/Dane but it looks like you've already come across much of the information included in my post. Here it is, anyway. Sorry if it's a bit 'all over the place'...

What was the Craig's List Ad all about?

Police called Megan's phone at 8:30am the morning of Oct. 4th. Megan said several days later after her initial police interview, Dane admitted to answering that call from detectives. He told her he gave the detectives a fake name, they talked for like 20 minutes and he thought the whole thing was a joke. At some point (not sure if it was before or after Oct.4th) Megan listed a GPS for sale on craigslist with her phone number as the contact number. The FBI saw this ad and set up a meeting with Megan attempting to buy the GPS. Megan said that was on October 8th. That was her first meeting with LE. They took her phone at that time. She said the GPS was a given to her by Jersey in July 2011. He told her it was a gift from a friend who was concerned about their financial situation. She said she later found out it was stolen. Dane spoke with police again on the lawn in front of Megan's house at some point- Megan thinks it was around Oct. 12-14th. She didn't see him again after that day. In late November 2011, police said they wanted to speak with Dane. Since then, KCPD said they have "moved on" from Dane, the same language they used regarding Tanko and SB's (ex) husband.

Megan lived about a mile away from Lisa's house. I don't have the exact address. She lived there with 5 adults and 3 children. The homeowners regularly took in people who were down on their luck. Megan said a roommate told her they saw Dane sitting on the side of the road one day and offered him a ride. They talked and ended up bringing him back to the house where Megan met him and they all got to know each other. He had his own phone but the service was off. Megan told him he could use her phone. He said he might use it to get a ride from his parents. He stayed for a day or two, and then left for about a week. He then returned needing somewhere to stay while he waited for an apartment. Megan and Dane were acquaintances. She said she doesn't think Dane and Jersey knew each other.

The last time Megan spoke with Jersey was a few days before Lisa went missing, a week after they broke up. He came to the house she was staying in. He tried to talk with her. She said he was drunk and belligerent so she locked herself in her room. He ended up getting into a fight with a friend of hers and was thrown out. She was told that he came back to the house 4-5 days after Lisa's disappearance in a stolen minivan looking for her.

FYI, Jersey will get out of jail within the next two years.

Some video links re: MW/Dane/Jersey...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrhpQcTUq_E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pis9cV0EFNw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVHflG0zAdo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsguDBAmUeI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiN-XO7DdDA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT_NHC2JexU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC9Dvi4kUzA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQXfOAmFD-A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn5tKNr04jw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMXYFCs-uFc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziyC_gckGyw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFPoo9KVax8

The Craig's list ad was in reference to a GPS Megan was trying to sell. (Can't nail this down but some wondered where she came up with a GPS and that perhaps it was stolen out of Irwins car when it had been broken into.

Megan said that Jersey gifted her the GPS in July 2011. The Irwin car was broken into in August. I don't know if a GPS was stolen from the Irwin car- the item/s stolen have not been publicly disclosed, AFAIK.

When the Police arrived about BL, Jeremy asked if they thought it could be connected to the car break in.

Do you have a link for that info? I don't believe it is accurate. I know the police dispatcher mentioned the break-in on the morning of the 4th. From what I understand, the police dispatcher was informing the responding officer of a previous call for service at the Irwin residence. Apparently, it is common for a dispatcher to inform a responding officer of other recent calls for service from a residence. I went back and read through info about this just now and it seems like there was a lot of poor reporting on the subject of the car break-in, so it's a bit confusing, but I'm almost positive Jeremy wasn't the one who brought it to the attention of LE that morning.

If there was no DNA left behind at the IRWIN home, why did police take samples from Brando and Beagly?

Police reportedly collected DNA from many people. I'm sure they collected DNA from anyone who had been in the house close to the time of Lisa's disappearance. As I understand it, police collect swabs from all over the home- points of entry, etc. and cross-check them with DNA taken from people who were supposed to be in the home. If there are any unmatched DNA swabs, those could possibly be from a intruder.

1. Somewhere I read that MW had gone to a Waffle House early in the am of Oct. 4. Anyone know where that Waffle House was located?

7401 Northeast Parvin Road.

5) KCPD searched behind Stroud's chicken restaurant twice. Where was this located and why search there.

Stroud's restaurant is located at 5410 NE Oakridge Rd.

7) I can't recall where I read it ( possibly Ruen's interview with MWposted on his blogs labeled 2011) where she mentioned she and Tanko used to visit a friend of Tanko's by the name of DENNY on Chelsea St.

Denny is the man who lived at the house Jersey was staying in/rotating sprinklers. According to neighbors, he/his family was out of town at the time of Lisa's disappearance. The footprint casts were taken from his yard.

8) Picerno says that Bradley never took a lie detector test but Bradley said she did. (?!!)

"?!!" is right. He stated this on a radio show but I don't believe I've ever heard the audio, only saw a short article with little context. Maybe he was mistaken? I don't know. I wish Picerno had been asked to clarify after it was reported. Like you said, Deborah said she took one. Tacopina never indicated that she didn't take one. I don't believe police have confirmed/denied either way. I'm not sure what that was about. It's definitely a statement I'd like Picerno to be asked about.

 

[Jewels53]

When it comes down to the facts of things that happened with Lisa Irwin, we the public actually don't know anything. LE is the ones with all of the true information in the case.

As far a Deb and Jeremy talking with LE in the early hours of the case that is true, we just don't know how many more question needed to be asked as they investigated. It is a shame they refused in the early days to not continue the talks.

Just because Deb said something doesn't make it true, IMO.

Moo :moo:

 

[Deleted member 39678]

When it comes down to the facts of things that happened with Lisa Irwin, we the public actually don't know anything. LE is the ones with all of the true information in the case.

As far a Deb and Jeremy talking with LE in the early hours of the case that is true, we just don't know how many more question needed to be asked as they investigated. It is a shame they refused in the early days to not continue the talks.

Just because Deb said something doesn't make it true, IMO.

Moo :moo:

I think that LE had plenty of time to ask all the questions that they needed to. In my opinion it got to the point where they weren't asking questions but making accusations in an attempt to get a confession out of Debbie.

We did hear this from KCPD Chief Forte.

Question:"Chief Forte, has Lisa Irwin's age progression image generated any promising leads? Does KCPD still want to question Lisa's mother one-on-one?"

Chief Forte: "Yes, we've gotten leads- we got quite a few leads when the photo came out, and no, we don't want to talk to the mother again. There is no need to talk to the mother again."

It appears to me that KCPD has, pardon the pun, "moved on" from asking Debbie any more questions. Probably because they already asked all the questions that need to be asked. JMO.

Thanks for the video Askfornina.

http://s1066.photobucket.com/user/L...213ChiefForteKMBCthewrap_zps1c32f582.mp4.html