Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[SMK777]

It makes me pretty sad to see media gone from Nancy's house and on to whatever the next 'story' is. Genuinely thought this case would be solved pretty quickly. I can only imagine how the family feels.

I did, too

 

[SMK777]

What was the most valuable thing in that home? NG. Then take it from there. Why? JMO

If NG was the valuable thing sought, and not money, debit card, jewelry, etc. -- then it was either:
1. Failed kidnap for ransom plan
OR
2. Kidnap or murder for purpose of revenge, power plan.

 

[Old Jim]

Assuming that a Kia vehicle is not a good match to the vehicle seen in the Ring video taken at 2:30 AM on Camino Real, I have tried to find a better match for the vehicle in this video. I started by using video frames taken from the Fox News video found at web site listed at the end of this comment.

The following method was then used to attempt to identify the vehicle in the video:

1) First, the playback speed was slowed down to 0.25x by clicking on the circular icon next to the speaker in the lower right hand corner of the video.
2) Then by starting and stopping the video many times to select different frames, individual frames were captured by a screen grab using a 1920x1080 pixel display and then pasted into a PowerPoint document. Figures 1 and 2 show the cropped vehicle portions of the four best frames captured.

3) The captured frames were then inspected to identify features representative of the side view of the vehicle:

1. Tail light shape
2. Front windshield slant angle
3. Door pillar slant angle
4. Roof flatness.

4) Then a Google search was made to obtain side views of various sedans and SUV’s that matched the representative features.

1. Lists of side views of generic vehicles were searched manually and the one with the closest patch to the observed features was selected. A search was then done using Google to match the generic photo and Google identified the best match as a Toyota Avensis or Toyota Corolla.
2. Lists of side views of actual vehicles from many manufacturers were searched manually and the Toyota vehicles were found again to be a good match. But two closer matches were found to be a 2003 BMW X3 and a 2022 BMW iX1 because they had a flatter roof than the Toyotas.
3. Photos of the vehicles identified:

The best match appears to be a 2003 BMW X3 or a 2022 BMW iX1. The color is difficult to identify because an IR camera does not distinguish colors faithfully. Therefore, the vehicle may be either white, gray, metallic, or a lighter shade of blue of green. But it is likely not a dark shade of color. The two Toyota vehicles identified look similar to the BMW vehicles from the side, but have a more rounded roof that does not match as closely the flatter roof line of the vehicle in the video. The BMW vehicles look more like an SUV while the Toyota vehicles are strictly sedans.

5) Comments on results:

1. The BMW vehicles identified were the best matches to the four features, but not a perfect match to the tail light shape feature. It is believed that a more extensive search may identify a vehicle having a better match to the tail light shape feature.
2. The manual searches in this study were limited to several hours by exhaustion of the searcher. Longer manual searches and/or computerized searches could possibly identify a better match to the features obtained from the vehicle in the video.

The video frames were taken from the Fox News video at Websleuths comment number 40,458 by Templeton on page 2023.

 

[moonglow123]

It makes me pretty sad to see media gone from Nancy's house and on to whatever the next 'story' is. Genuinely thought this case would be solved pretty quickly. I can only imagine how the family feels.

I am still shocked that a case with this level of resources, scrutiny, reward etc. could go unsolved. Of course I want all unsolved cases to be solved, but it’s truly sad and shocking that one with all the resources in the world could still go unsolved for a month. And very sad for Nancy and the Guthries.

 

[stmichael]

That was very interesting, thank you. Brilliant reframing on assumption of valuables. I hadn't thought of it that way at all. One thing I'm still struggling with is the idea of someone coming to rob her while so thoroughly decked out NOT to leave DNA, then also deciding they had to get rid of the body. Possibly it really was panicked "I have to get rid of this body!!" . Personally, under those exactly circumstances, I would be desperate to get myself out of there and as far away from the body and the house as I could get. BUT, my grade school tests assure me my IQ is well above room temp, so maybe my brain just works differently from Mr. Skell.

Bite light.

The 23 and me swab saliva transferring bite light shows us that he did not have comprehensive idea of covering a DNA signature in his approximated PPE. I mean let's not look over that--it's a glaring point. Like reinforcing a submarine and leaving the hatch off.

Now I say approximated PPE because we assume that's what it is, but nitrile gloves may just be an attempt of covering fingerprints, and his mask was an open mouth variety. What exactly was DNA covering there--common disposable gloves, regular "burglar cliche" clothing (including an old school woven ski mask straight out of a rap video or movie). It's not like he had a Tyvek suit on and plastic booties over the shoes and tucked and taped his seams.

Maybe it's purpose wasn't primarily for PPE to prevent trace DNA (there would be better choices). It does seem to be thrown together with practical and Walmart available items. I have much better PPE choices to cover DNA in my garage (I do my own landscaping, pesticide applications, and do refinishing work w/ solvents, airbrushing, spray booth).

In any case the entire get up still does not compute and still leads me to being unsophisticated (not necessary lack of experience, it's possible his weird ways worked with other low level soft targets) or over-convoluted (not clear mindset/drugs/mental/low iq). Idk.

 

[Aquabot13]

I still think it's fishy that LE seems to think there isn't any threat to the family or the public, but they don't seem very close to cracking the case.

I used to think that the lack of public warning meant that LE was close to an arrest and had a good idea of who the perp was and why they did it.

After a few weeks and false starts, I'm now more inclined to believe LE isn't really certain enough to be saying that there isn't a danger.

If this was targeting SG, the family should be locked down on top of SG's existing security. If it was for ransom, vulnerable people with money should be concerned. If it was random, the community needs to be on alert.

MOO

 

[SlimPickens]

This isn't necessarily a typical scenario

Yes, most burglaries occur during the day, but then he said that he has worked several burglaries in Tucson where the brazen burglars broke in at night with occupied residents and that it does happen in the area, so it's a possibility and that NG was a soft target. (he also said that neighborhood that he knows is so dark that "you could put your hand in front of your face and not see it." That's a damning quote as to the night conditions from someone who works that area, as he further expanded on the opportunistic set up of NG and her house.


Assumption of Target's Valuables- safe combo, bank accounts, access keys, etc.

Regarding the target; whether she had a safe, a bank account, a crypto wallet, valuable jewelry or cash stashed away, it's not so much as what she actually had, it's what the skell assumed or was under the impression that she had that would motivate him. Many times such erroneous assumptions underlay an incident with a room temp IQ criminal. Maybe he worked the house and saw her paying contractors in cash from the bedroom (surely she has more being the assumption). Maybe there was a safe, but it contained boring paperwork and a will etc. Maybe he had bad intel or thought an old lady living in a $1M house alone had stuff squirreled away. But yes he could have wanted a safe combo, bank account, crypto wallet key etc. even based on wrong intel and the awkward open holstering of the gun could be just for intimidation and coercion (as someone who has worked w/ firearms for 30 years that's my conclusion on that).

Unintended Outcome with an Elderly Medically-compromised victim

Now in the commission of a crime where he trying to coerce a soft target to give up location of cash, accounts, etc. a lot could go south. Most simply an elderly lady with a pacemaker and high blood pressure on meds, could be very stressed and have a cardiac event that he did not count on. Right there, that's it. A reasonable outcome. Even roughing up someone on blood thinners bears a large risk. I don't think based on the Nest cam get up this was a sophisticated individual (though he may have experience). Once the mark is deceased then I can see the whole cliche panic "Oh man, I got to get rid of the body" scenario kick in.

Couple of issues with this theory:

1. The notion that if NG had a cardiac event or passed away during the crime that that would be reason enough to remove her from the home and that said event couldn't have otherwise been covered up rather easily without her removal. Even if she was alarmed and got out of her bed and nothing was done to her other than physically hitting/restraining her it could've been staged to appear and otherwise explained away as a fall. So why escalate it and make it far more complicated for yourself by removing her body to make it an obvious crime?

2. The feds have essentially assumed the larger parts of this case, and perhaps have taken it over altogether. Federal warrants issued by federal judges along with federal prosecutors appearing on site, no press conferences and little information flow since the FBI became involved, and the Sheriff now being managed/stifled and relegated to a mumbling sideshow, indicate that there is likely compelling evidence that this is a federal crime.

And burglaries gone wrong aren't federal crimes.

JMO.

 

[thefragile7393]

The vehicle on Camino Real has been tentatively identified as a Kia. However, this may not be the correct identification. Figure 1 shows a frame from the video taken from the Ring camera at 2:36 AM on Camino Real. It shows a side view of the vehicle with a hump on the bottom of the window line toward the rear. It is believed that this hump led to the identification of the vehicle as a Kia shown in Figure 2. However, it turns out that this hump is caused by the leaf of a cactus plant in the figure, and not by the vehicle. This can be seen by looking at the next frame of video in Figure 3, which shows that the hump remains behind at the tip of the arrow when the vehicle moves ahead in the next frame while the arrow stays at the same position. It just happens that the shade of gray of the cactus leaf is the same as the shade of gray of the vehicle, making the cactus leaf look like a part of the vehicle. In a later frame, Figure 4, one can also see a side view of the tail lights of the vehicle in the video, and they do not match the side view of the Kia tail lights. So I believe that we should not be looking for a Kia traveling down Camino Real at 2:30 AM on February 1.
View attachment 649083
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The video frames were taken from the Fox News video at the following web site:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027167218812035457

This is the same video as found in Websleuths comment number 40,458 by Templeton on page 2023.

ok I thought the vehicle was ruled out as being relevant by LE? is this accurate or did I miss something (which is easy to do)

 

[Walela]

Interestingly, if the ransom letters were either a hoax or an after-thought and if the remnants of the surveillance video had not been available, what would we really have? A missing person case only?

If NG had to be eliminated (?) why not just have her drown in the pool and therefore leave the body? The sheriff said in one of the pressers, that the inside of the house was basically untouched, looked “pristine”. He never confirmed forced entry.

Why was she removed from the house then?

Is the blood on the floor (inside? And outside) the clue? Did she accidentally run into the intruder while possibly going to the bathroom or kitchen area? Or did the intruder injure her when she possibly tried to run (as best as she could) out of the house?

With the blood on the floor we do not just have a missing person case IMO. The blood changed the whole dynamic and the intruder’s intentions IMO.

The million dollar question is, what were the intentions? Hopefully we will get a 1 million dollar answer soon.

ALL IMOO

Cheers,
Nin

IMO, hypothetically speaking, if the body were left at the scene, burial followed by the execution of a will would take place and an estate would be settled. Without a body, it takes several years for someone to be declared dead by a court. During those years, IF someone had a power of attorney for the 'missing-possibly-deceased' person, the estate could be legally drained of all its value.

 

[factseeking]

Well, yes, they can see the gps for a long period of time. They can confirm timelines, when door closes, speed, they can even get phone contacts, images, calls, text messages, all just from the infotainment system. They need the physical car to do this. It’s almost like the car is its own “cellphone”. It collects data from other cellphones connected to it, which could also be important.

https://berla.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Berla-iVe-Datasheet.pdf

Ah thank you for this info re: needing the cars for the GPS which can give a wealth of information. That's the biggest reason I could think of for why they still have both cars but I wasn't positive they needed the physical vehicle to get the information. MOO this is why they still have both cars.

 

[distracted]

Wouldn't this be risky if the case goes to trial? The defense attorney can make some good points to the jury that LE is all over the map, doesn't know what they are doing, and in fact proclaimed the perp's innocence on more than one occasion.

No. It simply means that at the time of the statement, they did not have proof. Innocent until proven guilty.

 

[submarine7]

IMO, hypothetically speaking, if the body were left at the scene, burial followed by the execution of a will would take place and an estate would be settled. Without a body, it takes several years for someone to be declared dead by a court. During those years, IF someone had a power of attorney for the 'missing-possibly-deceased' person, the estate could be legally drained of all its value.

Having power of attorney doesn't give anybody unchecked access to their funds.

 

[stmichael]

Couple of issues with this theory:

1. The notion that if NG had a cardiac event or passed away during the crime that that would be reason enough to remove her from the home and that said event couldn't have otherwise been covered up rather easily without her removal. Even if she was alarmed and got out of her bed and nothing was done to her other than physically hitting/restraining her it could've been staged to appear and otherwise explained away as a fall. So why escalate it and make it far more complicated for yourself by removing her body to make it an obvious crime?

2. The feds have essentially assumed the larger parts of this case, and perhaps have taken it over altogether. Federal warrants issued by federal judges along with federal prosecutors appearing on site, no press conferences and little information flow since the FBI became involved, and the Sheriff now being managed/stifled and relegated to a mumbling sideshow, indicate that there is likely compelling evidence that this is a federal crime.

And burglaries gone wrong aren't federal crimes.

JMO.

To point one the underlying premise is that he is an unsophisticated low IQ criminal/associate. He doesn't think like you or me, or other people. In many cases I have seen you get tweakers doing unnecessary and overly-convoluted poor choices that dig them in a deeper hole, for instance. I have said that I think his entire "mentality" in his get up more or less exhibits that. Also it was just a suggestion, as I also mentioned that he could have roughed her up on blood thinners and killed her inadvertently that way or in many other scenarios. I am also not discounting other activity that may have been done to her in such a scenario that would make the criminal think he needs to get rid of the body (SA, DNA transfer, etc.).

As for your second point we don't know any of that, but sure, maybe.. This case being so high profile along with the President's personal attention can warrant the feds (who have still not take official point on this case, and the president himself has discussed this). It is still officially just a missing person's case and had it not been SG's mom and played out in the media I think we could all agree it would get very different resources/attention.

 

[miss marble]

I see no rational reason to take NG. ( except if he had sex with her and then too much other DNA could be around besides semen). Taking NG dead or alive in any other scenario was a liability for him. A lot of work.. Ransom demand was authentic and it WAS from the perp. He never really wanted it, imo. He wanted the attention and the repartee from SG. Not money, not jewelry, not cash or credit cards. NG was his reason for being there. He went home with his trophy. Everything else was a plus in his mind. JMO

Bbm, I respect your opinion, but just wanted to correct the bolded part. Sex is an act between consenting adults, the correct term here is rape.

 

[Rick7788]

I am still shocked that a case with this level of resources, scrutiny, reward etc. could go unsolved. Of course I want all unsolved cases to be solved, but it’s truly sad and shocking that one with all the resources in the world could still go unsolved for a month. And very sad for Nancy and the Guthries.

Cameras. Or lack thereof. This case would be solved by now.

Look at the potential getaway route via google. Some of those houses are VERY close to the road once you get off of NG's street and have an unimpeded view to the road....looking at the street view I'm amazed I don't see any visible cameras. I won't name the addresses-- but I'm astounded at the lax attitude of that neighborhood if that is truly the case.

 

[GlobeFireCandle]

Just some random thoughts
1- Not a burglary or home invasion. if robbery was your goal much less risky when no one is home and she was gone for 4 hours prior.so why not do it then.
2- So that leaves murder or kidnapping so if it was murder why take her out of the house.
3- So i am lead to believe botched up kidnapping no proof of life = no ransom. Get rid of body in desert.

I don’t think any of these make sense, I think it has to be an abduction in order to assault and murder with the motive being that the perp gets a thrill out it.

 

[GlobeFireCandle]

If NG was the valuable thing sought, and not money, debit card, jewelry, etc. -- then it was either:
1. Failed kidnap for ransom plan
OR
2. Kidnap or murder for purpose of revenge, power plan.

The usual reason men hurt women, because they want to and enjoy it

 

[Walela]

Having power of attorney doesn't give anybody unchecked access to their funds.

Sorry...I should have said Financial Power of Attorney with full monetary access. It's possible, just as it's possible for a trustee to steal the money from a trust fund. one example

 

[warp3dwing]

Bite light.

The 23 and me swab saliva transferring bite light shows us that he did not have comprehensive idea of covering a DNA signature in his approximated PPE. I mean let's not look over that--it's a glaring point. Like reinforcing a submarine and leaving the hatch off.

Now I say approximated PPE because we assume that's what it is, but nitrile gloves may just be an attempt of covering fingerprints, and his mask was an open mouth variety. What exactly was DNA covering there--common disposable gloves, regular "burglar cliche" clothing (including an old school woven ski mask straight out of a rap video or movie). It's not like he had a Tyvek suit on and plastic booties over the shoes and tucked and taped his seams.

Maybe it's purpose wasn't primarily for PPE to prevent trace DNA (there would be better choices). It does seem to be thrown together with practical and Walmart available items. I have much better PPE choices to cover DNA in my garage (I do my own landscaping, pesticide applications, and do refinishing work w/ solvents, airbrushing, spray booth).

In any case the entire get up still does not compute and still leads me to being unsophisticated (not necessary lack of experience, it's possible his weird ways worked with other low level soft targets) or over-convoluted (not clear mindset/drugs/mental/low iq). Idk.

The bite light was definitely an interesting choice. I had initially assumed this was risky due to the possible depositing of saliva, but now I’m not so sure.

I can’t find a single frame in the video where we can see the bite light directly or the suspect’s mouth open, unless I’m missing something. The closest we seem to get is while he’s futzing with the lantana. In one frame, we see his lips fully closed. The next frame is too dark to see much. And the frame after that, the light is on. Not once can I see his mouth opening to a substantial extent. (I had wondered if he was wearing one of those silkscreened mesh masks, but I think that might be obvious in the IR light.)

If the suspect subdued Nancy without saying a word, the light may not have needed to leave his mouth.

Maybe he has a Tyvek suit on underneath. This wouldn’t prevent touch DNA from his clothing from rubbing off, but it would prevent things like body hair from being deposited. Considering LE doesn’t seem to have a full DNA profile of the suspect, he must’ve done something very right. Seems unusually fastidious for a casual burglar.

It’s hard to know where the line is between luck and smarts here!

 

[Data Sleuth]

LE tested blood on porch at the beginning of the investigation and they reported it was NG's blood. JMO

Thank you