Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[factseeking]

what if he had no idea who lived there, I have seen too many terrifying creeper videos from that area, lots of men seem to be wandering around in the middle of the night, trespassing onto property, trying doors, looking for stuff to steal, NG house was ideal for a creeper burglar, set back from the road, not overlooked, plenty of trees, foliage and bushes to hide in, and her house does look wealthy, its huge, so the burglary/assault/murder theory has always fit better than the taking of an 84 year old woman in poor health, having to keep her well and alive for however long ransom negotiations went on for, plus it would help if you actually worked out how to ransom her before taking her,

Anything's possible but why would a random burglar not pick a time when someone's not at home? If it's random and he has no idea who lives there how would he know it wasn't some able bodied man or woman or both with a gun?

It just makes more sense to me that burglary wasn't the objective unless he was really dumb and if thats the case why hasn't he been caught or NG found? A random burglar wouldn't be prepared to kill/abduct someone IMO. I think as others have theorized that either it was an abduction for ransom that went horribly wrong and she died therefore no proof of life available OR it was some kind of targeted revenge plot. Again JMO.

 

[FaviousM]

OR it was some kind of targeted revenge plot. Again JMO.

It could be targeted and not be a revenge plot. Just some deranged obsessive, stalker or serial offender

 

[joe jones]

IMO though, if the kidnapper had no idea who NG was, he wouldn’t have sent the alleged ransom note to TMZ or to Savannah.

IMO they weren't sent by any kidnapper, they have nothing to do with this case, proof of life was the first requirement to get any money and not one of those notes provided that, surely a kidnapper would have worked out how to get the ransom as that is the whole point of kidnapping,

 

[factseeking]

I agree. Luck usually only gets you so far. But seemingly robust investigative techniques - CCTV footage, Walmart records, phone pings, etc. - have not brought a swift conclusion.

I often think back to Luigi Mangioni, and how his bicycle and multi-train escape from heavily surveilled NYC seemed like something only a trained pro could get away with. But he got caught eating hash browns in McDonald’s not too much later. The genius plan only went so far.

Only time will tell if we see something similar here.

Great point

 

[Katrinepa]

I can’t even imagine what its like trying to mother through this never ending heatbreak. When my baby brother died (from a fentanyl laced pill) I spent weeks in shock seriously questioning how I would ever be a mother to my own children again. Friends and family mothered them until I was physically capable of doing it again. But I at least knew where my brother was. And we got to bury him.

This limbo is truly unimaginable.

Sharing only to say - whatever she does is admirable and incredible given the situation. And speculating on this serves no one other than our own curiosity.

I do hope she returns- only if that means she is well enough to again participate in her own life again. Humans do this all the time- I have read many case studies on this return to “normalcy” but my lived experience makes this hard to imagine. I hope her faith shows her a way through the uncertainty.

Everyone deals with death differently. I hope the Guthrie family is supporting each other through all this.

 

[factseeking]

It could be targeted and not be a revenge plot. Just some deranged obsessive, stalker or serial offender

Yes I agree, I couldn't find the right wording on that thank you!

 

[Rick7788]

Interesting what he says about the RR guy's hand.

Agree.

I've listened to about the first 40 minutes and he goes into detail about the porch suspect beginning at about the 24:30 mark.
For about the next 5 minutes he has some interesting observations about the suspect and his use of his hands etc.

 

[warp3dwing]

So if it was a single perp, I wonder if the sequence of events went something like this:

• Perp parks vehicle somewhere in the neighbourhood
• Perp walks to NG's house, gets there somewhere around 1:40am and scouts the place out until we see him at the front door at approx 1:47am
• Perp disables the camera
• Perp retrieves his vehicle and parks it out on the street, waits for a little bit to make sure there are no lights on etc as a result of him disabling the camera
• Perp enters the house by unknown means sometime around 2:12am when a camera detects a person
• Perp subdues NG by some means - threat with gun, ligatures etc
• Perp looks around the premises for whatever he was there for IF he wasn't solely there for NG
• Perp finally pulls vehicle up in front of the door
• Perp then leads NG out front door to vehicle
• Perp drives away with NG somewhere around 2:28am when NG's pacemaker disconnects

I think he would have parked elsewhere first for a few reasons:

• We don't see the car out front in the camera footage but the blood trail suggests it was parked in a spot the camera would have seen it when NG was removed from the house
• Even with its lights off, a car pulling into that gravel driveway in the middle of the night would potentially be loud enough to wake the occupant of the house
• The gap between 1:47am and 2:12am seems a bit too long to be skulking around outside the house IMO

Obviously, with multiple perps this sequence of events becomes much simpler and I'm basing this on the assumption the removal of NG was planned from the get-go

Thoughts? Was the vehicle already in the driveway off to the side at 1:47am?

I'll put this out there. A couple other people and I measured the suspect's shadow in the video footage and used the ratio of suspect height to shadow length to determine the time. All three times - calculated independently - averaged to just about 02:12 on the dot (times ranged from 02:06 to 02:20).

If the calculations are correct, even roughly, the video footage is from 02:12 (or thereabouts) and not 01:47. The caveat here is the calculation is very rough, but it definitely pointed more toward the 02:12 time than the 01:47 time. I did try to get more people to test this out themselves, but I only got two volunteers.

 

[Katrinepa]

Profiling Evil, on YouTube.
Very interesting take, and a must see, as a different perspective from retired LA, CA detectives, one being a professor now. Very interesting take! MOO

Just a comment on the Dr Phil reference in this podcast. "Dr' Phil is not affiliated with any professional psychological org, and hasn't been for many years, and I take what he offers with a grain of salt.moo

 

[joe jones]

Anything's possible but why would a random burglar not pick a time when someone's not at home? If it's random and he has no idea who lives there how would he know it wasn't some able bodied man or woman or both with a gun?

It just makes more sense to me that burglary wasn't the objective unless he was really dumb and if thats the case why hasn't he been caught or NG found? A random burglar wouldn't be prepared to kill/abduct someone IMO. I think as others have theorized that either it was an abduction for ransom that went horribly wrong and she died therefore no proof of life available OR it was some kind of targeted revenge plot. Again JMO.

have you not seen all the creeper videos, where men are wandering round peoples properties in the middle of the night, they have no idea that somebody is not going to come out and shoot them but still they carry on creeping at will, and as I have posted numerous times most criminals are dumb which is why they get caught, some are lucky and dumb and he is in this category, whether by luck or design (and I wouldn't be surprised if he lives within the area of NG house, or has some knowledge of the road system) he chose an area which is very very dark at night, most homes set back from roads thus less chance of being caught on camera in his vehicle, numerous ways to enter and exit the area on roads, no ANPR cameras to catch his car and numberplate, NG house set back from road,
he has been very lucky and LE may have no evidence of who he is due to the list above, lucky does not make you smart, but so far with all the resources thrown at this case IMO LE is so nearer to catching him than day 1, I hope to be proven wrong

 

[emigrate]

A 1.1 million dollar reward for a week or so now and still no arrest. Most would sell out their first born for that kind of cash. Only someone who doesn't need it and/or isn't interested in it would balk at such a life changing amount of cash. A small time criminal would probably even convince his own family to turn him in for that kind of windfall.

But nothing. Headshaking nothingness.

JMO.

1.1 isn't that life changing in 2026 especially after giving the govt their share. It should have been higher from day one and it would have been had it been me.

 

[submarine7]

1.1 isn't that life changing in 2026 especially after giving the govt their share. It should have been higher from day one and it would have been had it been me.

No government share required. No way of tracking

 

[FaviousM]

I'll put this out there. A couple other people and I measured the suspect's shadow in the video footage and used the ratio of suspect height to shadow length to determine the time. All three times - calculated independently - averaged to just about 02:12 on the dot (times ranged from 02:06 to 02:20).

If the calculations are correct, even roughly, the video footage is from 02:12 (or thereabouts) and not 01:47. The caveat here is the calculation is very rough, but it definitely pointed more toward the 02:12 time than the 01:47 time. I did try to get more people to test this out themselves, but I only got two volunteers.

How do you reconcile that with LE's narrative saying the camera was disconnected at 01:47am?

 

[submarine7]

How do you reconcile that with LE's narrative saying the camera was disconnected at 01:47am?

Do they specifically say the door camera?

 

[emigrate]

No government share required. No way of tracking

That is fine and all and I suppose any found money is good to get but Ithink it should be higher for Nancy since it is possible. Maybe someone is sitting on info waiting for it to go up a bit, people are like that. I wager 98% of us here wouldn't give a damn about a reward. To think you have to pay someone to help a missing elderly lady, it is sickening.

 

[FaviousM]

Do they specifically say the door camera?

Multiple outlets report it was the doorbell camera

FBI moving command post in Nancy Guthrie investigation from Tucson to Phoenix, source says

The investigation into the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie is still running at full speed, a law enforcement source familiar with the investigation told CBS News.

www.cbsnews.com

The crucial, digital clues Nancy Guthrie’s abductor may have left behind: forensic expert

Nancy Guthrie’s abductor could be captured using crucial cell phone data — the same tactics law enforcement used in the Bryan Kohberger case, according to a forensic expert who analyzed the I…

nypost.com

Nancy Guthrie abduction: The full timeline

A more detailed timeline is emerging as the search intensifies for 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie, the mother of "Today" show host Savannah Guthrie.

abcnews.com

 

[warp3dwing]

How do you reconcile that with LE's narrative saying the camera was disconnected at 01:47am?

I believe the camera did disconnect at 01:47 as reported, perhaps due to a WiFi jammer being used. However, the Nest doorbell cam will record to an internal buffer and upload the video when connection is reestablished. So, my guess is that the camera wasn't connected at 02:12 but it did record. Sometime later, it reconnected, uploading the video.

 

[submarine7]

That is fine and all and I suppose any found money is good to get but Ithink it should be higher for Nancy since it is possible. Maybe someone is sitting on info waiting for it to go up a bit, people are like that. I wager 98% of us here wouldn't give a damn about a reward. To think you have to pay someone to help a missing elderly lady, it is sickening.

The way the reward is set up leaves room for the perp to tell where Nancy can be found. The reward is solely for recovery of NG.

 

[SMK777]

IMO they weren't sent by any kidnapper, they have nothing to do with this case, proof of life was the first requirement to get any money and not one of those notes provided that, surely a kidnapper would have worked out how to get the ransom as that is the whole point of kidnapping,

The only possibility for the notes to be related is if they had intended to show proof of life, but she unexpectedly died and they had to abandon the ransom idea.

 

[submarine7]

Multiple outlets report it was the doorbell camera

FBI moving command post in Nancy Guthrie investigation from Tucson to Phoenix, source says

The investigation into the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie is still running at full speed, a law enforcement source familiar with the investigation told CBS News.

www.cbsnews.com

The crucial, digital clues Nancy Guthrie’s abductor may have left behind: forensic expert

Nancy Guthrie’s abductor could be captured using crucial cell phone data — the same tactics law enforcement used in the Bryan Kohberger case, according to a forensic expert who analyzed the I…

nypost.com

Nancy Guthrie abduction: The full timeline

A more detailed timeline is emerging as the search intensifies for 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie, the mother of "Today" show host Savannah Guthrie.

abcnews.com

Thank you. I couldn't remember.