AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[BigCityAccountant1]

There are often many fake ransom notes in a high profile national kidnapping case (the famous Lindbergh baby case had 5 fake ransom notes) and we've already had an arrest for one in this case.

The kidnapping procedure here is highly atypical. The initial email to TMZ uses two crime scene facts as "proof" the broken flood light and "location" of the apple watch. These are strange and not that conclusive, and "after the fact" observations rather than a unique initiated indicator. Any person that had access or leaks to the crime scene could obtain this info (leaked, hacked, observed on scene).

Proof of Life for a medically compromised elderly woman would seem obvious to any professional kidnapper whose goal was to actually get a swift ransom, if that's the goal here.

So at the very least--and yes there are no clean cut rules among criminals--this seems amateurish (along with the awkward lines of indirect contact). Gives me vibes of the blundering Daniel Lugo 90s Miami extortion ring and a kidnapping scheme that goes terribly wrong.

More definitive proof of life is even more important in an age with AI where POL scams are an actual thing with an FBI PSA warning for missing persons, and SG actually alluded to this in her video where she implores the kidnappers for contact and proof that her mother is alive.

I think an important detail is being overlooked. How many people sleep with their watch on? How did THIS PERSON know the watch existed in the middle of the NIGHT with all the lights off? HOW did this person know she even owned an apple watch? WHY didn't Nancy use the watch to call 911?
So either one of two things.
1. The perp knows Nancy well enough to know she has an apple watch.
2. This was a home invasion gone wrong--the perp was looking for valuables and stumbled across it.

But seems to me there thoughtfulness involved here. Enough sense to know she could be tracked with that watch on. So, not taking a chance made sure to leave the watch behind. Adreneline going, etc etc---I don't see a home invasion perp thinking that clearly.

To me---this is someone who knows Nancy somehow, someway.

The first Apple watch was released in 2015, IIRC. I'd be looking at any photos of Nancy after 2015 to see who is around her. They are somehow, someway lurking in the background.

Of course, all just my opinion.

 

[Kemug]

Interesting that they missed them - I'd hope that LE would know exactly where everyone is......

Probably all down in the basement!

 

[TheDinks]

lots of folks, for example, involved in affairs, have a burner phone that others don't know about. easy enough to send a message to a media contact line from a burner. just my opinion, fwiw. but you'd be surprised how many folks are leading secret lives, affairs, etc. Much more common than Folks are willing to admit, in MOO.

Just because it's technically a burner phone, it can still be traced to the location... no electronic devices, registered or not, will be able to be used by any POI without FBI knowing exactly where it's coming from.

 

[NervousNellie]

So we are all clear. This was the post Luna20 was referring too. Nothing about Tricia. She was referring me back to an article that had already been posted multiple times yesterday.

Please for the love of dogs, stop.

 

[TheDinks]

I think an important detail is being overlooked. How many people sleep with their watch on? How did THIS PERSON know the watch existed in the middle of the NIGHT with all the lights off? HOW did this person know she even owned an apple watch? WHY didn't Nancy use the watch to call 911?
So either one of two things.
1. The perp knows Nancy well enough to know she has an apple watch.
2. This was a home invasion gone wrong--the perp was looking for valuables and stumbled across it.

But seems to me there thoughtfulness involved here. Enough sense to know she could be tracked with that watch on. So, not taking a chance made sure to leave the watch behind. Adreneline going, etc etc---I don't see a home invasion perp thinking that clearly.

To me---this is someone who knows Nancy somehow, someway.

The first Apple watch was released in 2015, IIRC. I'd be looking at any photos of Nancy after 2015 to see who is around her. They are somehow, someway lurking in the background.

Of course, all just my opinion.

They turned on the light and saw the watch. on the charger, on the bedside table a little after 2am

 

[KonaHonu]

I can definitively answer this with... it depends.

I have had three of these systems. In two of them, there was a sensor on the door itself which detected opening (on my current one, it's a magnetic switch. On my other one, it was a tilt sensor on the door). In one, the open/close status is controlled by the position of the drive mechanism of the opener, so if that was disengaged from the rope, it would not record the open. Upon re-reading, edited to add clarity: on the two systems with a sensor on the door, it absolutely did record the opening even if the rope was pulled and it was opened completely manually. On the third system which sensed it from the opener itself, manually opening the door by hand did not trigger a notification or log anything.

In none of these systems would the open be recorded if power was out. Also I have never seen one of these things give any obvious indication or notification of a restart. And there is no clock in the opener to reset (I think I saw someone mention that). Any timestamps for notifications are from the time on the server, not the opener.

I don't want to argue with you but I have garage door sensors and they do not work as you describe. Mine sense distance from ceiling to object. They determine opening and closing (and car presence) based on distance threshhold state changes. Manually opening the door with the rope is no different than any other operation. The sensors can close a dry contact on the opener to trigger open/close.

There is no outside server involved. The timestamps are based on the sensor's own clock, which can be altered but by default (in my case) is set by ntp.

Mine are on a small UPS so they do record during power outages, at least for a while. I doubt an 84 year-old woman had this setup but the son or son-in-law could be very tech savvy.

I don't think it makes much sense to speculate on the garage door openings/closings except to note that the time seems to corroborate what the sherrif said about when the son-in-law dropped her off.

 

[ab01]

I have a feeling when its all said and done, The Circle K video is going to end up being the thing that broke things wide open. Just the timing of the press release with the searches and seizures.

It makes sense to me and how I would expect things to progress

 

[Raccoon]

My opinion, SIL set this up without wife's knowledge. Bad marriage, etc. Hope I am wrong but not sure what else makes sense.

 

[KonaHonu]

They turned on the light and saw the watch. on the charger, on the bedside table a little after 2am

My partner has a google watch and sleeps with it on to record biometrics. It's actuall one of the selling points!

 

[Absoluterubbish]

Please for the love of dogs, stop.

No worries I just wanted to show what I was referring to as it got misconstrued.

 

[TheDinks]

Regarding the garage door opening when Nancy arrived home...I had a thought that it's possible, if she was being walked from garage though the internal access door, someone could have entered the garage and hidden there.

 

[Cindizzi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2020000800127209524

 

[Charlot123]

Agree, but the second letter is the nail in the coffin for the idea this was a close family member. There’s just no way they are living through this while secretly writing the second ransom letter on the side. And they’d have no motivation to write a second letter. It wasn’t close family. It wasn’t SIL.

Agree. 100%. I already made a post a couple of days ago in the context of: being kinder to the family members, if possible?

It is normal that the last one who saw the victim are the first one to be suspected. It is logical that since the SIL dropped NG off, his/family car would be checked. It is good police work. But we don’t have any information pointing at the family.

 

[Mayor Perk]

HOW did this person know she even owned an apple watch?

Nancy appeared multiple times on The Today Show wearing an Apple Watch on her wrist. But also, as others have said, it was probably very obviously sitting on the nightstand beside her charging.

 

[truecrimel]

I have so many thoughts.

1. Local PD never should’ve released that scene. Not only did they do it once, but twice. I have to wonder what they were looking for, especially up on her roof.

2. I find it very interesting that they towed the daughter and SIL’s car before they towed Nancy’s from the crime scene.

3. The vehicle of interest seen at the Circle K: did they ever specify when that vehicle was seen? Today? Before/after the crime? Apologies if this has been answered, there’s just SO much information.

4. The second note, if sent by the same person and is legit, seems to rule out family IMO. They couldn’t have sent it with the FBI overseeing all of their devices or else we’d likely already see an arrest.

All of this is so bizarre and I cannot think of a case to compare it to (except maybe baby Lindbergh)

 

[TheDinks]

I have a feeling when its all said and done, The Circle K video is going to end up being the thing that broke things wide open. Just the timing of the press release with the searches and seizures.

It makes sense to me and how I would expect things to progress

Would you kindly tell me what the Circle K video is please...am sorry, I just haven't been able to catch up on everything.

 

[Charlot123]

I'm thinking about motive. What motivates someone to kill someone they know. What would drive someone who doesn't have a violent past (that we know of) to kill a vulnerable person they know very well? Greed? For the money? Revenge? They screwed you over in a big way? Or, do you want to shut them up forever, because they found out your secret? A secret that you believe will destroy your whole life. What if this person gave you an ultimatum - you tell her, or I will. I hope NG is returned to the people who love her. I really hate to think she was harmed by someone close. Very sad to think about.

Well, I know one story. Meth. Anger. A murder. Served only a few years. Got out. Meth. Anger. Thought that someone “dissed” him. Violence again.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

Two reasons why kidnappings happen. Revenge and ransom

I find it hard to believe a professional gang would go to the trouble to kidnap an 84-year-old woman and risk getting caught etc..

Why aren't the ransom notes directed to the family? But only to the media?

Interestingly, a dark SUV was also towed from the garage of the home, with Friday's searches marking the third time investigators returned to the crime scene since Nancy was reported missing on Sunday.

There has been no direct confirmation from the police whether this was a forced entry, and if any blood has been inside, especially around her bedroom.

The only drops of blood that have been reported have been outside her front door

Which makes me think, there could be some ambush or struggle before she went inside

I think this will be solved fairly soon.

My prayers and thoughts are with you, Nancy, to be still hanging in there alive

Major developments in search for Nancy Guthrie as cops raid her home

Forensic teams were seen scouring the roof of Nancy's home in Tucson, Arizona, reportedly finding a camera mounted to the property that had been missed in previous searches.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[ab01]

Would you kindly tell me what the Circle K video is please...am sorry, I just haven't been able to catch up on everything.

 

[Strangeworld]

I am still trying to catch up, but possibly AB worked with LE and/or FBI to put pressure on the kidnapper to communicate by appealing to his ego and fear of not getting his ransom

What if AB's ID of SIL as prime suspect was a coordinated effort and AB was selected as the media person to do it because of her close and trusting relationship with SG

AB kept repeating the prime suspect details and that it came from a high level LE...over and over. Other news outlets were hesitant to report this because ME denied it, but it may have been enough to scare the kidnapper into reaching out

That could have helped to push the kidnapper to give more evidence of the validity of the ransom demand