AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[LivvyL]

Take a look at Annie’s breathing in the video.

I saw that right away too. You could almost see her heart jumping out of her chest.

 

[PacoElFlaco]

To me the blood drops look like a drip, not a spray/high velocity from a blow. But I'm not an expert. JMO.

I saw a zoomed-in pic with lots of little tiny drops, as from a spray. There were larger drops as well but spray was definitely present.

 

[Diddian]

I saw a zoomed-in pic with lots of little tiny drops, as from a spray. There were larger drops as well but spray was definitely present.

Earlier in the thread, Tricia linked to a Tik Tok post by a person who formerly did crime scene blood spatter analysis and that person described that when blood drops into blood drops that are already on the ground, it splatters those drops such that it looks like a spray.

 

[clearskies1]

I saw a zoomed-in pic with lots of little tiny drops, as from a spray. There were larger drops as well but spray was definitely present.

Agree, I just deleted my comment because I realized there did look like some spray in there.

 

[Diddian]

Earlier in the thread, Tricia linked to a Tik Tok post by a person who formerly did crime scene blood spatter analysis and that person described that when blood drops into blood drops that are already on the ground, it splatters those drops such that it looks like a spray.

Replying to my own post to add link to that post by Tricia:

Normally we don't allow random TikTok accounts we will allow this TikTok video. Not all of their videos but this one is fine.

 

[Bodhi]

The kidnappings for ransom that people are mentioning are from 40 or more years ago. Nothing recent in the US. With modern technology much easier to track people. But now we have this (if it is a kidnapping).

I can think of 2. One is Charlotte Sena, the 9-year-old kidnapped from a campground in New York state in 2023. The kidnapper delivered a ransom note to the family's home, which helped law enforcement identify him and rescue the child. Ransom was not the kidnapper's primary motivation but he did demand money from her parents.

The 2nd is Denise Huskins, who was kidnapped for ransom by serial rapist in California in 2015 and released.

The Huskins case is a cautionary tale for this investigation. The victim's boyfriend reported the home invasion and kidnapping but police did not believe him. They felt he'd killed her, so they discounted emails from the kidnapper and a proof of life recording.

The victim was released and reported being kidnapped. But police didn't believe her either. Within hours, they held a press conference announcing it was a hoax. On national TV, Nancy Grace characterized it as an obvious hoax.

The kidnapper was irate. He emailed demands to retract the hoax accusations and apologize to the victims or he'd strike again. And he followed through. Two weeks later, he committed a similar home invasion/kidnapping. The ransom was paid, and he released the woman. This time, however, the victims did not report the crimes the home invasion, kidnapping, and rape to police. Two months after that, the kidnapper struck again. But this time the victims fought back, and he fled. He left his cell phone behind, however, which lead to his arrest.

It turned out that police had had evidence identifying the perpetrator in the Huskins case all along, but they'd written off the home invasion and kidnapping first as fake and then as a hoax. Could subsequent crimes have been prevented by a thorough investigation? Did the public derision of the first victims influence the second victims' decision not to report the home invasion/kidnapping/rape? All things to keep in mind as we discuss the investigation into Nancy Guthrie's disappearance and why investigators are not closing off any avenues prematurely.

 

[Cardgame]

The pacemaker would stop transmitting as soon as she got a certain distance away from her Apple Watch (like 30 feet from what I can gather). Blood can be there even if she was carried out badly injured, or even dead.

I've seen law enforcement say "we believe so and so is alive" in countless situations, despite their actions telling us that they believe someone is dead.

In no universe do I personally believe she is alive.

Ok how about this though: Last night I was imagining the kidnap in my mind.

I was thinking about the cameras.

Thinking how unlikely that perps would make a plan that involved her answering the door, and the alleged amount of time the perp was in the house (45 mins).

Breaking in via that protected front door, or knocking on the door, gives the person inside time to press a panic alarm, or dial 911. Too high risk.

It makes much more sense to sneak up on her while she is sleeping.

Speculating that it could in fact have played out more like this, FYI my theory requires more than one perp:

1.47 am perps disable front door cam (because they know they will be removing Nancy via front door and want to protect their vehicle)

1 perp goes to bring vehicle up to the house while other perp(s) begins breaking and entering via back door (lighter security, quieter)

2.12 am by this time perps are inside the house, either they are not aware of further cameras but they got lucky - no footage retained, or they removed other cameras (this info is unconfirmed by sheriff)

They enter Nancy's bedroom and disable her in her sleep, carry her out to a vehicle. She is on blood thinners and frail, and the act of removing her causes her to bleed.

2.28am by this time she is out of the house and at least 30 ft away in a vehicle

That would mean potentially a window of only 16 mins, not 45 mins as suggested by media.

I'm remembering the sheriff mentioning her being removed from her bed early on, and wondering if this was a slip of accidental information revealed that the FBI didn't want the public to know, so they walked it back.

ETA: actually one perp could achieve this with planning

ETA: perhaps they knocked her head on the doorframe while exiting

 

[Cassie P]

I can think of 2. One is Charlotte Sena, the 9-year-old kidnapped from a campground in New York state in 2023. The kidnapper delivered a ransom note to the family's home, which helped law enforcement identify him and rescue the child. Ransom was not the kidnapper's primary motivation but he did demand money from her parents.

The 2nd is Denise Huskins, who was kidnapped for ransom by serial rapist in California in 2015 and released.

The Huskins case is a cautionary tale for this investigation. The victim's boyfriend reported the home invasion and kidnapping but police did not believe him. They felt he'd killed her, so they discounted emails from the kidnapper and a proof of life recording.

The victim was released and reported being kidnapped. But police didn't believe her either. Within hours, they held a press conference announcing it was a hoax. On national TV, Nancy Grace characterized it as an obvious hoax.

The kidnapper was irate. He emailed demands to retract the hoax accusations and apologize to the victims or he'd strike again. And he followed through. Two weeks later, he committed a similar home invasion/kidnapping. The ransom was paid, and he released the woman. This time, however, the victims did not report the crimes the home invasion, kidnapping, and rape to police. Two months after that, the kidnapper struck again. But this time the victims fought back, and he fled. He left his cell phone behind, however, which lead to his arrest.

It turned out that police had had evidence identifying the perpetrator in the Huskins case all along, but they'd written off the home invasion and kidnapping first as fake and then as a hoax. Could subsequent crimes have been prevented by a thorough investigation? Did the public derision of the first victims influence the second victims' decision not to report the home invasion/kidnapping/rape? All things to keep in mind as we discuss the investigation into Nancy Guthrie's disappearance and why investigators are not closing off any avenues prematurely.

This is called threshold bias, a form of cognitive bias on the part of LE officers when investigating a crime scene. They make up their mind immediately at the scene and then reject all evidence to the contrary.

 

[vereb]

Hadn't seen this posted (sorry if I missed it), but here's a link to Harvey Levin from TMZ talking to CNN about the ransom note TMZ received. Saw chatter about it but not a video link. It doesn't appear to be the full interview, but at least a significant portion.

Notes about the alleged ransom letter and its contents: the deadline on Monday being 'far more consequential', that it was very detailed in regards to the placement of the apple watch/damaged floodlight, the ransom note reiterating there will be no other form of contact, Nancy is aware of the letter and the demands and 'okay but scared', Harvey has the impression the person is local to Tucson.

Really makes me wonder about where the Apple Watch was claimed to be. It would be safe to say it was on a bedside table, so maybe they claimed it ended up in an unusual spot?

If the ransom note is a hoax from someone not connected to the kidnapping at all, and, as Levin believes, from someone from Tucson, it could be from someone who is somehow loosely connected to the family/their associates and has heard gossip about what was found in the house. I'm personally leaning towards it being an opportunistic hoax, and I was assuming that details about the watch and the broken floodlight were gleaned from media and videos of the outside of the house. But if the description of the watch location was more specific than what has been talked about publicly (on the charger) or what could be somewhat safely assumed (by the bed, bedside table, or generally in the bedroom), then maybe there's some inside info involved.

 

[rosesfromangels]

This is called threshold bias, a form of cognitive bias on the part of LE officers when investigating a crime scene. They make up their mind immediately at the scene and then reject all evidence to the contrary.

It’s an interesting human behavior that you see in our threads as well. The reality is that crimes don’t fit in to tidy patterns. The mind of a criminal is diseased, and deviates erratically from the norm.

Amateur opinion and speculation only