• #8,541
Hope your plane took off and you are not stranded!

Yes it is odd.

Why go to a 35 year old movie to make a point about humanizing NG?
When in fact it didn't actually humanize her at all. A reference to a fictional character in an old movie is distancing NG's humanity in my opinion. Why not talk about NG's role as a grandmother, mother, widow, church goer, volunteer or other info about her life.

But of course the best way to humanize someone is to talk to them directly. A kidnap victim is just an object, a money making tool. Turn them into a real person by talking to them directly. So the advice to the kidnapper to go talk to NG is good. And assumes NG can make the case herself.

But still begs the question why use an old movie to do this? Why not just tell the kidnapper to talk to NG, get to know her, etc.

Why introduce the idea of a serial killer to a kidnapper holding your mother? This goes against psychological crisis management. If you have an aggressive person threatening to harm others, you don't start talking about other killers who are famous and made a name for themselves by killing people.

Yes perhaps the kidnapper instructed SG to say this as a coded message. Perhaps it verifies that SG read the ransom note they sent. Or indicates that SG is agreeing to certain terms without publicly disclosing the specifics.

Or perhaps there was something about the crime scene and note that made the FBI profilers think it was a good idea to go in this direction. A criminal leaves their personality fingerprint on the crime scene. The crime is not a personality aberration but a reflection of their daily personality. It is a picture of who they are.

So perhaps there was something in the RN and crime scene that caught the profiler's eye.

IDK. Again just speculating of course.
The movie was released in 1991.

If the quote was a secret message to the person who sent the ransom letter, might that say something about their age? For example, someone 50 years old now would have been 16 when the movie came out.
 
  • #8,542
BBM - I think this is an interesting theory. Something like "say XYZ if you want to send us a message that you are willing to make the payment"
This is one of my theories, too. SG was very deliberate when she said that part, pausing, looking direct at the camera. It also seemed misplaced with the rest of their plea (IMO). I think there was something in that note that made reference to the movie and they were communicating back to the kidnapper.
 
  • #8,543
What could be in NG's car that shouldn't be? Someone's DNA? There'd be a plausible explanation for any family member, imo, so not looking for evidence of one of them. Data showing it went somewhere on that night?

Morning all.

Maybe Nancy's DNA i.e. blood from being transported - either alive or deceased.

If the vehicle of interest that was seen at Circle K was Nancy's, I am not understanding how her vehicle would have gotten back into her garage if the only opening of the garage was at 9:48 p.m. and the only closing was two minutes later at 9:50 p.m.

Maybe there was another opening and closing of the garage Sunday morning that LE just hasn't shared with the public.

Or the vehicle of interest seen at Circle K wasn't Nancy's and belongs to someone else.
 
  • #8,544
I am trying to catch up. This camera that they pulled yesterday, is this something that had put there for several days? One of Nancy's they missed? A camera that no one knew existed before this case?
 
  • #8,545
Hope your plane took off and you are not stranded!

Yes it is odd.

Why go to a 35 year old movie to make a point about humanizing NG?
When in fact it didn't actually humanize her at all. A reference to a fictional character in an old movie is distancing NG's humanity in my opinion. Why not talk about NG's role as a grandmother, mother, widow, church goer, volunteer or other info about her life.

But of course the best way to humanize someone is to talk to them directly. A kidnap victim is just an object, a money making tool. Turn them into a real person by talking to them directly. So the advice to the kidnapper to go talk to NG is good. And assumes NG can make the case herself.

But still begs the question why use an old movie to do this? Why not just tell the kidnapper to talk to NG, get to know her, etc.

Why introduce the idea of a serial killer to a kidnapper holding your mother? This goes against psychological crisis management. If you have an aggressive person threatening to harm others, you don't start talking about other killers who are famous and made a name for themselves by killing people.

Yes perhaps the kidnapper instructed SG to say this as a coded message. Perhaps it verifies that SG read the ransom note they sent. Or indicates that SG is agreeing to certain terms without publicly disclosing the specifics.

Or perhaps there was something about the crime scene and note that made the FBI profilers think it was a good idea to go in this direction. A criminal leaves their personality fingerprint on the crime scene. The crime is not a personality aberration but a reflection of their daily personality. It is a picture of who they are.

So perhaps there was something in the RN and crime scene that caught the profiler's eye.

IDK. Again just speculating of course.
I've thought hard about this too. I started thinking maybe the perpetrator has a fixation with the movie and wanted to recreate the specific scene in the movie. However, I'm now convinced that this is just standard language from historic FBI training based on messaging considered and tested as most effective in ransom situations. In other words, the specific language is just a hangover from past scripts and there is low tolerance from LE to deviate from the specific messaging to maximise the chances of cooperation.
 
  • #8,546
Why go through the ruse of going to the house, with the forensic stuff, if they know the house is empty? They didn't enter. I have to believe they know where everyone is.
i wonder if they also have a camera back there that they were checking
 
  • #8,547
The movie was released in 1991.

If the quote was a secret message to the person who sent the ransom letter, might that say something about their age? For example, someone 50 years old now would have been 16 when the movie came out.
Exactly my thoughts. It gives us a possible age of the kidnapper?

Unless perhaps the movie is now a cult classic that young people watch? I do not know, others will have to chime in on this point.
 
  • #8,548
AB has been saying the same thing consistently. I listened carefully, and what she says is that her highly-placed and unimpeachable source told her that TC was considered a prime suspect *at this time*. There’s the qualifier.

He may or may not be NOW. Since her source told her that, investigators may have new information that confirms it, or is exculpatory.
Actually she has the word MAY in front, MAY be considered the prime suspect.
 
  • #8,549
Hope your plane took off and you are not stranded!

Yes it is odd.

Why go to a 35 year old movie to make a point about humanizing NG?
When in fact it didn't actually humanize her at all. A reference to a fictional character in an old movie is distancing NG's humanity in my opinion. Why not talk about NG's role as a grandmother, mother, widow, church goer, volunteer or other info about her life.

But of course the best way to humanize someone is to talk to them directly. A kidnap victim is just an object, a money making tool. Turn them into a real person by talking to them directly. So the advice to the kidnapper to go talk to NG is good. And assumes NG can make the case herself.

But still begs the question why use an old movie to do this? Why not just tell the kidnapper to talk to NG, get to know her, etc.

Why introduce the idea of a serial killer to a kidnapper holding your mother? This goes against psychological crisis management. If you have an aggressive person threatening to harm others, you don't start talking about other killers who are famous and made a name for themselves by killing people.

Yes perhaps the kidnapper instructed SG to say this as a coded message. Perhaps it verifies that SG read the ransom note they sent. Or indicates that SG is agreeing to certain terms without publicly disclosing the specifics.

Or perhaps there was something about the crime scene and note that made the FBI profilers think it was a good idea to go in this direction. A criminal leaves their personality fingerprint on the crime scene. The crime is not a personality aberration but a reflection of their daily personality. It is a picture of who they are.

So perhaps there was something in the RN and crime scene that caught the profiler's eye.

IDK. Again just speculating of course.
Ah, but what if the ransom note instructed SG to read that line live on TV?
 
  • #8,550
According to this article, LE went up the roof because a neighbor noticed it looked recently redone and thought that the company which renovated it should be looked into.
Does that mean they found those cameras by chance while checking the roof? :/
As a person familiar with arizona and its homes, I have been marveling at the condition of that roof. It’s pristine and I agree, looks relatively new in its coating.
 
  • #8,551
I also noticed that SG's statement and prior Instagram written post is full of religious imagery. We know NG attended a church and this could have been aimed at her. However, it's much less likely NG will be scrolling Instagram or be shown these messages. As such, could it be that they believe the perpetrator is potentially from her church? I know that is an unpalatable thing to imagine, but the religious language is very obvious and it's puzzling me as to why this would feature so heavily in such a high stakes situation for a "bitcoin" ransom.
 
  • #8,552
  • #8,553
I am still trying to catch up, but possibly AB worked with LE and/or FBI to put pressure on the kidnapper to communicate by appealing to his ego and fear of not getting his ransom

What if AB's ID of SIL as prime suspect was a coordinated effort and AB was selected as the media person to do it because of her close and trusting relationship with SG

AB kept repeating the prime suspect details and that it came from a high level LE...over and over. Other news outlets were hesitant to report this because ME denied it, but it may have been enough to scare the kidnapper into reaching out

That could have helped to push the kidnapper to give more evidence of the validity of the ransom demand

This crossed my mind but I have a hard time believing that LE would sacrifice that man's reputation for the rest of his life, especially if there is not definitive proof of his involvement, by leading the public through AB to think that he is a "Prime Suspect" in this case just to rattle the alleged kidnapper(s).

I don't think they would do this even if they had definitive proof of his involvement.
 
  • #8,554
Do we know if the garage had one of those exterior pin code access pads and do we know who all had the code? Ex: which relatives, cleaning lady, house project contractors?
 
  • #8,555
Interesting news about damage to the car.
It’s also interesting that Nancy’s car is a blue Subaru and the car used by the two teens in Arizona in the recent crypto-related home invasion was also a blue Subaru. The combination of crypto, Arizona and blue Subaru is a curious coincidence. (Obviously, it’s not the same car – just the same manufacturer and colour.)


Investigators believe the teens were extorted into the plot; police caught the pair shortly after they fled the scene in a blue Subaru.
 
  • #8,556
View attachment 641224
What I find interesting about this flyer from Pima County Sheriff’s Department is that it said it is unknown what Nancy Guthrie was wearing when she disappeared. Surely if she was out with family for any length of time, they could describe what she was wearing.
Were the clothes she had on that evening found at her home?
It IS odd since the search of the house would likely uncover the clothes she wore to dinner, provided she went to bed before being taken. Many people only have a few different night clothes they wear each night. With the help of family they could look for the absence of those items. Nothing about this case fits.
 
  • #8,557
Link to she entered through garage please

Sheriff Nanos stated this at the presser where they revealed the timeline and he states that the garage opening at 9:48 p.m. and closing at 9:50 p.m. was consistent with someone dropping her off and her going in to her home.

So I am assuming that this is information that they were given by the family member who dropped her off which has been said to be Nancy's SIL TC.
 
  • #8,558
It IS odd since the search of the house would likely uncover the clothes she wore to dinner, provided she went to bed before being taken. Many people only have a few different night clothes they wear each night. With the help of family they could look for the absence of those items. Nothing about this case fits.
I think LE deliberately did not disclose what clothing she was wearing to minimise the chances of false leads, if they already suspect who the potential perpetrators are or are in contact with them. It's striking how little information is being given and the minimal steps to appeal to the public for information. Billboards aside, the public appeals appear to be a bare minimum activity right now.
 
  • #8,559
I've thought hard about this too. I started thinking maybe the perpetrator has a fixation with the movie and wanted to recreate the specific scene in the movie. However, I'm now convinced that this is just standard language from historic FBI training based on messaging considered and tested as most effective in ransom situations. In other words, the specific language is just a hangover from past scripts and there is low tolerance from LE to deviate from the specific messaging to maximise the chances of cooperation.
So perhaps referencing Silence of the Lambs when talking to kidnappers is part of an old FBI protocol which at one time was effective based on data? Even though on the surface it is counterintuitive?

I would think the FBI would periodically update their protocols. Something effective in 1991 may not be effective in 2026.

Also this one size fits all and outdated strategy goes agains the entire notion of psych profiling which is to understand the unique personality of the perpetrator and develop a specific response strategy based on that personality. If the strategy is old and generic, then there is no need for profilers.
 
  • #8,560
Well I missed so much overnight there is no way I can catch up on posts. The towing of NG’s car is interesting. Could someone have snuck into the garage when it was opened and tried to steal it but couldn’t and then entered the house for the keys and things went terribly wrong? Or could someone have just waited in the garage after sneaking in and LE now knows or suspects this so they are processing the garage and car more closely for evidence? Did the ransom email contain information about the garage or car showing they had been inside the garage? Did NG have service recently done on the car and the perps had access to her keys including the house? Just some thoughts.
 
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