• #31,101
  • #31,102
Yes but I think after seeing the lantana man video, we would agree that this guy is not an experienced highly successful professional.

We seem to agree that we have both viewed a 30 second snippet of an approx. 20 minute crime that is as yet unresolved, we both have viewed media coverage of a crime that has had two overwhelming SWAT interventions with no arrests thus far (3 counting Culvers), and - if Harvey Levin's FBI source is correct and the FBI is treating it as one and the same - that we both are considering the nuance of a crime that likely facilitated two untraceable ransom demand emails and an entirely anonymous account in which to deposit.

We disagree on how we have extrapolated and intuited that information, and how it impacts our views on the intellect and/or experience of the criminal or criminals who orchestrated the crime.

JMO.
 
  • #31,103
I don't believe they believe that. Saying and believing are not the same. Perhaps it benefits them for whoever did this to believe they believe it's a burglary gone wrong. IMO
Burglary gone bad is not the sane as a robbery gone bad. Burglarizing a home is intention to commit a felony. it may not be a robbery.
 
  • #31,104
  • #31,105
Former CNN and NewsNation presenter Ashleigh Banfield has said she stands by her report that TC is being treated by authorities as an alleged "prime suspect" in her disappearance. Banfield made the claim on her podcast, Drop Dead Serious, citing a source who told her that investigators had seized a vehicle belonging to Nancy Guthrie's daughter, AG.

AG is the sister of Today co-host Savannah Guthrie. According to Banfield, the source alleged there was a connection between the vehicle and TC, and that police may be treating him as a "prime suspect" in the case. At the time of the podcast, Banfield said "these are just musings and not evidence," adding that it is routine for family members to be vetted in missing persons investigations.

from: Why Ashleigh Banfield Believes TC is still a prime suspect
Question for @tricia or other mods - I thought I remembered reading earlier on this thread that Newsnation is not an approved WS source? If you could clarify, I would be grateful. Thank you in advance.
 
  • #31,106
Pretty much nothing about this case makes sense to me. Why her, why take an old lady and nothing else, the weird, random, oddball "ransom" notes when kidnapping for ransom is super unusual here in the US in general...
What if she saw something???? As in she witnessed something in hern
I'm with everyone who's having trouble reconciling "burglary gone wrong" with "Nancy still being alive." The likelihood of kidnapping someone on the fly and being able to contain and hide them away for two weeks without being detected is slim to none.
I agree with this. Its one thing if you had a kidnapping planned, a place to contain her, noise proof room, Silence of the Lambs lair. It another thing to happenstance, stumble, fumble robbery and after the fact whim, last minute decide to kidnap the elderly lady. It would be hard to conceive her ending up still alive in that scenario, but anything is possible.
 
  • #31,107
NEW INSTAGRAM STATEMENT BY SG
 
  • #31,108
How can a burglary go wrong? All my opinion and speculation, but I see three possibilities for what would have happened when the burglar(s) left the home:
  • Nancy is alive and the perpetrator decides he must abduct her, then decides to ransom her
    • What reason could he have to abduct her? Maybe he decides he could get more money
    • This would be a very risky gamble, and a foray into two new crimes that a burglar is unlikely to have experience with. Spontaneous kidnapping is always a bad idea, and ransom implies that NG didn't recognize the perpetrator, which would be a reason to change plans.
    • Kidnapping for ransom also brings a ton more attention to the crime, increasing the chance of getting caught.
  • Nancy is alive and the perpetrator decides he must abduct her then kill her
    • What reason could he have to abduct her? Maybe he decides he could get more money, and then changes his mind. Maybe he gets recognized, and panics.
    • On top of what I said above, murder is a big jump from the mostly non-violent crime of burglary. Comfort stealing from people doesn't imply comfort executing a person. And then they'd have to dispose of the body, which isn't particularly a fun or easy thing to do, especially if you've never done it before.
  • Nancy is dead and the perpetrator decides he must remove her body
    • What reason could he have to kill her? An accident, perhaps, in a struggle. Or he gets recognized. Or he didn't expect anyone to be home so when someone was, he decided that was unacceptable.
    • Death seems plausible, but why take her body? Doing so increases the risk of getting caught by a lot--you have to get a body you didn't plan for to your vehicle, then you have to transport it, then you have to dispose of it, all the while creating opportunities to leave evidence and be witnessed. The only thing I can think of is that NG created evidence the perpetrator did not think they could clean up, such as by scratching him, but I doubt an 84 y/o with limited mobility would fight through the layers we saw on the Nest camera, and even if that did happen,
      it would be easier to deal with hands or fingers than an entire unanticipated body

It's possible, criminals don't have to be smart people or make good decisions, etc. etc., but all of these possibilities seem implausible to me. If she was alive, it doesn't make sense to take her unless that is what the perpetrator already planned to do. If she was dead, taking her body creates a lot more risk and I don't know what realistically would be worth that risk.

To me, it seems likeliest that the perpetrator's objective was to abduct or kill NG.
 
  • #31,109
There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that electric or internet was cut. There is no evidence WiFi was disabled either. People imagine scenarios and some run with it.

Thank you, I appreciate your clarification. I’ve noticed it mentioned so often that I thought there was something to it.
 
  • #31,110
I would be cautious about infantilizing someone. The ageism in this discussion is concerning.

Just off the top of my head I (in my 60s) know people in their 70s and 80s who are maintaining rigorous schedules in the community band, who are leaders in the garden club, who still work, who maintain their own properties, who put in a lot of hours doing childcare for their family members, who drive large RVs, etc.

My former neighbor, at age 90, used to have a large vegetable garden each year and SHE would be snowblowering my driveway while I was still lying in bed. She wrote two books in her 80s, on a computer, and still drove 100 miles a few times a month to visit her sister.

There is no indication that NG had any cognitive decline, isolation, loneliness. She had mobility issues but she seemed to have a fairly active life. She still owned and presumably drove a vehicle.

Using the same old FB photo is nothing. I personally have a 20-year-old photo on LinkedIn because I don't like images of myself.

Asking how to get to the airport? Maybe she wanted to greet someone. Maybe she offered to pick up someone. Maybe she was looking that up for a friend. She didn't need anyone to "arrange a shuttle" for her.

NG is/was not a doddering, incompetent person, based upon anything I've read. It was stated when the disappearance was first announced that she was "sharp as a tack." Lots of people look up things online out of curiosity, not need or desperation.

As to the porch pirate, it didn't unnerve her too much as she didn't move, hire security guards or purchase a Ring subscription.

She may have been" sharp as a tack" but that does not change the reality she had some specific limitations. I know elderly people that have never been on medicine, don't having hearing aides, or cardiac issues. I know people much younger as myself who slow down with age (as I often caution my younger "invulnerable" friends and family).

Bottom line is she was an 84 year old with a pacemaker on "life sustaining" meds (as it's been put), with a cane and hearing aides. That's a reality and limitations. Especially in a high stress situation w/o meds.
 
  • #31,111
MOO but I feel like Savannah is speaking to someone in particular in this video.
The perps, asking them to let SG know where mom is, alive or deceased. I doubt SG knows who did it, so not a particular person.

JMO
 
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  • #31,112
  • #31,113
Welcome back @KivaloNyomozo’ !

I’m still in flux over everything as I vacillate over what I believe has happened to her.

In any event I do believe this was an attempt at profit——not some kind of obsessed SG fan, or a family member going “wilding.”

Whether the intent was initially just an “ordinary” home robbery and something went awry, or if it was always a kidnapping for millions in Bitcoin, I’ve no idea.

I want her to come home alive and in the tender loving care of her family, with the perpetrator(s) locked up.

Yet as time crawls by, even the stress on Nancy could be fatal. She’d likely be so worried for how her children are coping. Already having a pacemaker indicates heart problems and who knows if she’d even have a stroke during this ordeal.

This would presuppose that’s she’s even still alive.

JM speculations, with all wishes for a miracle.

Sadly it’s unlikely that she is still alive. Going on three weeks and refills aren’t going to happen. Unless someone has access to the medication that she needs to survive, she won’t be able to.
 
  • #31,114
Question for @tricia or other mods - I thought I remembered reading earlier on this thread that Newsnation is not an approved WS source? If you could clarify, I would be grateful. Thank you in advance.
NewsMax.

 
  • #31,115
How can a burglary go wrong? All my opinion and speculation, but I see three possibilities for what would have happened when the burglar(s) left the home:
  • Nancy is alive and the perpetrator decides he must abduct her, then decides to ransom her
    • What reason could he have to abduct her? Maybe he decides he could get more money
    • This would be a very risky gamble, and a foray into two new crimes that a burglar is unlikely to have experience with. Spontaneous kidnapping is always a bad idea, and ransom implies that NG didn't recognize the perpetrator, which would be a reason to change plans.
    • Kidnapping for ransom also brings a ton more attention to the crime, increasing the chance of getting caught.
  • Nancy is alive and the perpetrator decides he must abduct her then kill her
    • What reason could he have to abduct her? Maybe he decides he could get more money, and then changes his mind. Maybe he gets recognized, and panics.
    • On top of what I said above, murder is a big jump from the mostly non-violent crime of burglary. Comfort stealing from people doesn't imply comfort executing a person. And then they'd have to dispose of the body, which isn't particularly a fun or easy thing to do, especially if you've never done it before.
  • Nancy is dead and the perpetrator decides he must remove her body
    • What reason could he have to kill her? An accident, perhaps, in a struggle. Or he gets recognized. Or he didn't expect anyone to be home so when someone was, he decided that was unacceptable.
    • Death seems plausible, but why take her body? Doing so increases the risk of getting caught by a lot--you have to get a body you didn't plan for to your vehicle, then you have to transport it, then you have to dispose of it, all the while creating opportunities to leave evidence and be witnessed. The only thing I can think of is that NG created evidence the perpetrator did not think they could clean up, such as by scratching him, but I doubt an 84 y/o with limited mobility would fight through the layers we saw on the Nest camera, and even if that did happen,
      it would be easier to deal with hands or fingers than an entire unanticipated body

It's possible, criminals don't have to be smart people or make good decisions, etc. etc., but all of these possibilities seem implausible to me. If she was alive, it doesn't make sense to take her unless that is what the perpetrator already planned to do. If she was dead, taking her body creates a lot more risk and I don't know what realistically would be worth that risk.

To me, it seems likeliest that the perpetrator's objective was to abduct or kill NG.
This is where I am at. Had to be the plan going in. Had to have been more than one person.
 
  • #31,116
A quick Google search tells me she has worked there since 2018, has won two AP awards and was nominated for an Emmy.
Wow. Thanks for checking. Quite possible that her source was providing reliable info. MOO
 
  • #31,117
The full backpacks on the way in, make me wonder about the burglary theory? Most thieves would bring empty bags. I still think the whole thing was premed, and the backpack is a kit.
Very hard to imagine taking the occupant, most burglars just run away quickly, almost impossible to remember their features even.

I was burglarized 3 times when living in San Francisco, very common…The last time was a hot prowl, early 6 am, when I was home. She had come into a ground floor kitchen window, open for the cats. I caught her crawling across my BR floor in the direction of my purse on dresser. I woke up quickly ordered her out. It was a young woman, high, condoms in hand, she said a man was following her, bothering her( I assumed a pimp). I called my work partner, he said call cops, report they came dusted, but no way I would ever be able to identify. She left so fast.
I moved to a very safe town about a month later.

JMO
As @MassGuy pointed out a few pages back, Burglary is unlawful entry to commit a felony. Their intent didn't have to be robbery unfortunately.
 
  • #31,118
Question for @tricia or other mods - I thought I remembered reading earlier on this thread that Newsnation is not an approved WS source? If you could clarify, I would be grateful. Thank you in advance.
If so, I did not know. I’ve been in the hospital and away from WS for some time. Perhaps the rules changed. I’ll watch for Tricia or another mod to verify. Pls accept my apologies if not approved. Thanks for letting me know.
 
  • #31,119
Yes I agree, he could have thought he disabled it. But didn't do his homework on how to exactly do that. But yes he did have the wherewithal to do all the things you list. And yes he seemed fairly nonchalant about all of it.

I just posted a comment about one stupid thing he did. Put a bite light in his mouth. With DNA rich saliva and cheek cells all over the light which he pulls out with his gloves.

But yes he did some things right, made some mistakes, and perhaps had some luck.
The Perp putting the bite light in his mouth may be the thing that catches him in fact. I find it very hard to believe during the 30-40 min he was outside and in the house he did not take it out once. Automatic DNA. It would be a good hit too.
 
  • #31,120
How does one get into CODIS - it anyone that has been convicted of any crime?
I believe it depends on the state. Some states take DNA for any felony; others just for violent felonies, from what I understand. MOO
 

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