AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[whitelilac]

Burglar, a thief who wanted to take valuables or whatever in the middle of the night when she was almost certainly in the house?
I don't buy it either.

A burglar is going to break into a house when the residents are gone, may even watch beforehand or know the resident's routine to make sure they are out, especially an elderly lady living alone who doesn't work.

It happened on my street recently....neighbor was gone for 2 hours , and came back to find her house robbed. Likely he was watching while parked down the street.
Plus a burglar normally would not be all masked up and disguised to the nines. Quick in and out.

Something more here, more sinister and complicated. The motive was not a robbery imo.

 

[Gr3yW0lf78]

Where are these photos from?

 

[shonyakay]

Reasons for taking or confronting a victim during a burglary include:

Forcing Access to Assets: Victims may be held at gunpoint or coerced to open safes, provide banking PINs, or reveal the location of valuables.

Preventing Immediate Reporting: An offender may hold a resident captive to ensure they cannot call the police during or immediately after the theft.

Sexual Assault or Kidnapping: In some cases, the intruder's intent goes beyond theft, and they may target a victim for sexual assault or abduction, as noted in studies of violent, occupied burglaries.

Eliminating Witnesses: If a resident surprises an intruder, the offender may take the victim to a different location or hold them to prevent them from identifying the perpetrator.

Distraction or Deception (Distraction Burglary): Specifically targeting the vulnerable or elderly, some burglars use trickery to get inside and may physically guide or isolate a victim to keep them away from the area being robbed.

Escalation of Violence: While many burglaries involve no one being home, if a confrontation occurs, the crime may escalate to armed robbery, where the victim is intimidated or physically harmed.

 

[Gr3yW0lf78]

Seemed to be a decent amount of response initially after release of doorbell cam footage about eye makeup and eyebrows.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Thanks. Another great insider look at the dept. Well spoken and level take by the Sgt.

96 detectives and 45 are Det.1s. Most experience inside the unit 3 years of homicide.
195 deputies on patrol. Of that 101 on probation (less than a year).

He also says he feels the rift with the FBI does come from 2016 when Nanos was investigated by the feds. And he think that investigation caused a lot of the "icy relationship we see today" and he says he thinks Nanos is using this case as a way to show up the FBI.

Wow - that was some interview with the Sgt! I don't recall ever hearing anything like that before. His remarks took bravery.
He certainly appears to be the kind of fellow you'd want in charge, and most especially for his interest in working cooperatively with the FBI.

Wow.

ETA: Brian Entin is an exceptional interviewer

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[MagicalMysteryTour]

We don’t really know exactly how long he was in there. The doorbell was disconnected approx 1:47 but another camera detected motion at 2:12, then her pacemaker disconnected from her Apple device around 2:28.

I had thought earlier on it was saint 2:12 motion detection was from an indoor camera but I can’t find that source at the moment.

It doesn’t really make sense that a simple burglary would turn into an abduction though. Taking her from the house was a bigger risk to him than leaving her behind unless she saw his face or knew him by his voice.

I've been thinking about the chain of events based on the evidence we have at hand at this point in time and I think the abduction of NG may have proceeded in the manner below. This is based on there being just the one Perp.

The Perp has left his car on the roadside nearby and has walked onto NG's property and has spent some time quietly scoping out the house and neighbours houses to ensure all is quiet. If the pic of the Perp not wearing the backpack or holstered gun is real and not altered by the FBI, then the Perp stood in front of the porch entry for a moment before backing off to gear up, possibly using the intervening time to test whether NG is receiving or responding to doorbell camera alerts.

The Perp then walks up to the front door and proceeds to disable the nest camera (1:47am), taking his time because he knows that no one is responding to the alerts. He then walks back to his car and drives it onto the point in the driveway where NG's later blood trail stops. He gets out of the car and proceeds to walk down the western side of the house, past the garage and enters the back gate between the main residence and guesthouse. Here is where he may have been spotted by another camera at 2:12am (i'm unsure whether this is the same nest camera or a separate camera due to conflicting media reports).

In the backyard, he then disables both floodlights against the back wall of the residence using a heavy object, possibly a lump hammer or something similar that can fit in his backpack. He then enters the house through the glass sliding door (the easiest point of entry and apparently early reports state it was found wide open). Once inside, he has less than 16 minutes to rouse NG and bundle her out the front door and into the car so that she is beyond the reach of her pacemaker app by 2:28am.

So based on this timeline which to me, seems to fit the evidence we have so far, the Perp didn't spend much time in the house with NG and it looks less like a robbery gone wrong and more like a targeted abduction.

Anyways all the above is MOO.

 

[Bazil]

Hello everyone,

I am new to this, so please bear with me, assuming this is a robbery.

Could it be that they or he broke into her home via a window, filled his backpack with valuables, decided that he wanted money and wants to take her to an ATM.

He goes to the front of the property to disable the camera, as he is going to take her out of her home this way, she stumbles at the door and falls injuring herself, she is maybe on her hands and knees/ he may be lifting her causing the blood drops, she is then upright meaning the blood will now be dripping down her face and onto her clothing, so no more drops on the ground.

He takes her to a waiting vehicle.

When it all blows up in the morning, they then realise who they have, and realise they are in much deeper trouble.

Sorry if it’s a long winded theory, I am still clinging to hope that this lady is alive and well.

Along the way things have gone wrong, which has meant improvising and the whole thing not making any sense, trying to think and plan on the fly isn’t in everyone’s skill set

JMO

 

[PaulaDC]

Talking heads have brought up the possibility of a tarp. One said that her head might have fallen to the side causing the blood droplets. They said that the perp might have put something under her to stop the bleeding because the last thing the person is going to want is blood in their car. I’m sure the cars they’ve taken in for processing are being checked for any specks of blood.

Is that what they think was in the backpack? A tarp?

 

[rosesfromangels]

it looks less like a robbery gone wrong and more like a targeted abduction.

Respectfully snipped for focus, and BBM.

100%.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[shonyakay]

Possible drug usage by a perp shouldn't be overlooked either and how that may affect their judgement and impulse control.

 

[shonyakay]

I've been thinking about the chain of events based on the evidence we have at hand at this point in time and I think the abduction of NG may have proceeded in the manner below. This is based on there being just the one Perp.

The Perp has left his car on the roadside nearby and has walked onto NG's property and has spent some time quietly scoping out the house and neighbours houses to ensure all is quiet. If the pic of the Perp not wearing the backpack or holstered gun is real and not altered by the FBI, then the Perp stood in front of the porch entry for a moment before backing off to gear up, possibly using the intervening time to test whether NG is receiving or responding to doorbell camera alerts.

The Perp then walks up to the front door and proceeds to disable the nest camera (1:47am), taking his time because he knows that no one is responding to the alerts. He then walks back to his car and drives it onto the point in the driveway where NG's later blood trail stops. He gets out of the car and proceeds to walk down the western side of the house, past the garage and enters the back gate between the main residence and guesthouse. Here is where he may have been spotted by another camera at 2:12am (i'm unsure whether this is the same nest camera or a separate camera due to conflicting media reports).

In the backyard, he then disables both floodlights against the back wall of the residence using a heavy object, possibly a lump hammer or something similar that can fit in his backpack. He then enters the house through the glass sliding door (the easiest point of entry and apparently early reports state it was found wide open). Once inside, he has less than 16 minutes to rouse NG and bundle her out the front door and into the car so that she is beyond the reach of her pacemaker app by 2:28am.

So based on this timeline which to me, seems to fit the evidence we have so far, the Perp didn't spend much time in the house with NG and it looks less like a robbery gone wrong and more like a targeted abduction.

Anyways all the above is MOO.

TMZ stated LE confirmed to them that the nest cam footage released of the man on the porch was taken at 2:12 a.m.
That door nest camera was disconnected at 1:47 a.m. How exactly that was accomplished is not yet known.

I have thought as well that the picture of the suspect with the backpack off could have been him casing the place first before attempting to enter.
However, I do wonder why that picture was cropped as to not show the doormat area where Nancy's blood was later found.

 

[jtfolden]

I've been thinking about the chain of events based on the evidence we have at hand at this point in time and I think the abduction of NG may have proceeded in the manner below. This is based on there being just the one Perp.

…

Anyways all the above is MOO.

Yes this is pretty much how I think it went down. I do wish we had more context regarding the photo of the perp without the backpack and gun too.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Possible drug usage by a perp shouldn't be overlooked either and how that may affect their judgement and impulse control.

Good point. I keep thinking about that video with the Perp bumbling around with the door cam and grabbing weeds to cover the camera. So amateurish and odd. You'd think they'd come ready to cover the cam with a piece of masking tape. They looked clownish and bumbling in their makeshift W-mart abductor getup, and then of course the pistol pointed dangerously at their crotch. One good sneeze and this would be a different story. If this weren't so serious it would be laughable. Payaso!

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[jtfolden]

TMZ stated LE confirmed to them that the nest cam footage released of the man on the porch was taken at 2:12 a.m.
That door nest camera was disconnected at 1:47 a.m. How exactly that was accomplished is not yet known.

It doesn’t make sense and no other source has corroborated this change to the timeline so at this point I think TMZ has made a mistake by conjoining data from two different cameras.

 

[Batgirl77]

How are they interfering with what is going on. There is nothing going on.

IMO the representative wanted some coverage. Her statement wasn’t useful, informative or well written. Seems to me she just wanted some attention because as you say, there’s nothing going on.

 

[shonyakay]

It doesn’t make sense and no other source has corroborated this change to the timeline so at this point I think TMZ has made a mistake by conjoining data from two different cameras.

The only time Sheriff Nanos ever mentioned movement captured by a camera was at 2:12 a.m.

At the time of the presser before they recovered the actual door cam footage they only knew that a camera picked up movement at 2:12 a.m.
They didn't know if it was an animal or a person at that time.

Also, a common misconception is the only way to disconnect that camera at 1:47 a.m. is to physically manipulate it.

 

[PacoElFlaco]

Possible drug usage by a perp shouldn't be overlooked either and how that may affect their judgement and impulse control.

Mental illness, too. Not the hallucinatory, overt kind, but the cold calculating paranoid schizophrenic variety.

 

[jtfolden]

The only time Sheriff Nanos ever mentioned movement captured by a camera was at 2:12 a.m.

At the time of the presser before they recovered the actual door cam footage they only knew that a camera picked up movement at 2:12 a.m.
They didn't know if it was an animal or a person at that time.

Also, a common misconception is the only way to disconnect that camera at 1:47 a.m. is to physically manipulate it.

We already know there were multiple cameras on the property including those pointed at the rear of the house and the driveway.

If the doorbell camera was disconnected at 1:47am then it logically was not the camera recording or detecting motion after the fact. And we also do know that it was physically removed as only the mount was left on the door frame.

 

[shonyakay]

We already know there were multiple cameras on the property including those pointed at the rear of the house and the driveway.

If the doorbell camera was disconnected at 1:47am then it logically was not the camera recording or detecting motion after the fact. And we also do know that it was physically removed as only the mount was left on the door frame.

Nest cameras (battery or newer wired models) can record up to one hour of events locally if the Wi-Fi is disconnected, provided they still have power.

Since Nancy didn't have a subscription these recorded video events were not saved. Investigators gave FBI the digital evidence and the data was ultimately successfully recovered.

 

[Spectrix]

Big if true.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2023181112026259856

Their source tells them they think it's a burglary gone wrong and they believe Nancy is still alive.
I'm trying to understand what they think happened here?

"Okay, so I got the jewels, the cash, oh and during the rush I accidentally grabbed this random old lady. Whoops."