I know many here believe that this was a planned kidnapping, as does the sheriff apparently, but from a behavioral standpoint, this does not look like a carefully designed and executed kidnapping. The person on camera approached alone, carried a backpack like someone expecting a quick theft, and awkwardly tried to block the doorbell with weeds instead of disabling it properly. He could have just as easily spray painted the camera, as anything else.
That points to an opportunistic, low-level offender, not a coordinated abduction team. There was no ransom note at the scene, no organized extraction, and no visible counter-surveillance. Everything about the approach appears improvised rather than strategic, suggesting someone who expected a fast in-and-out situation.
A professional kidnapper would typically plan in advance, avoid obvious cameras, coordinate transportation, control the scene quickly, and minimize exposure time. They would operate with discipline and precision, not hesitation. It is very possible Nancy was targeted, but not for ransom.
A more plausible explanation is that the offender had some prior familiarity with her, felt comfortable approaching her home, and intended a burglary. When she confronted him, fear of being recognized may have triggered panic. Inexperienced offenders often make impulsive decisions in that moment, focused on immediate self-preservation rather than long-term planning.
That kind of chaotic escalation fits the known behavior far better than a calm, mastermind-style kidnapping.
Of course...MOO