AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Diddian]

The question is, why didn't it happen?

IMO, because the ransom-demander doesn't have it (NG's body) OR because the ransom-demander knows that release of NG's body would likely provide evidence that might lead back to identifying who they are.

Facts are stacking up against the ransom-demander being the same criminal as the burglar-abductor:

Ransom was not demanded immediately, it was demanded Monday, Feb 2 while NG was apparently taken in the very early morning hours of February 1. (This suggests that the ransom-demander developed the idea of ransom demand because NG is the mother of a known-wealthy individual AND the ransom-demander learned some facts through early - Feb 1 or morning of Feb 2 - leaks via LE and/or media that he/she then used to "prove" he/she had been in the NG home.)
Ransom was not demanded through communication sent directly to family or to LE; the communication was sent through media outlets. (This seems designed to gain the use of the public and their shared fear that NG is currently at risk of greater injury or even death as leverage.)
Ransom demander gave two deadlines (first Thursday after NG disappeared and then second Monday after NG disappeared). And more recently, established another, a third deadline. (When has this EVER happened - one, no... two, no... three deadlines? EVERY communication is a piece of evidence that further informs very skilled LE in development of a profile that fits the ransom demander. IF SG's recitation of what appear to be "scripted" lines is based on the ransom-demander's instructions, this is even more so.)
Ransom demander has accompanied the latest demand with a reportedly graphic threat if the deadline passes without payment; yet at no point has ransom demander provided ANY proof of life to back up their claim that they in fact have NG. (They cannot provide proof of life because they do not have NG; and if they DO have NG but she has already died, then their threat is empty and they are just still trying to leverage the public's shared fear that NG is currently at risk of greater injury or even death.)

 

[Napoli]

I just hope it's not a calm before a false alarm storm. Or a lull that goes on and on such as when cases grow cold.

Until the DNA comes in , if it even matches anyone, the case is cold. IMO. Remote matches may occur. Then build a tree..so that's awhile. BK's father had done DNA testing, likely Ancestry but anyway, when they got BK's DNA it made an instant parent / child match. That would be great in this case but more likely there's a cousin of a varying degree in the data base. Gedmatch depends on being tested on another DNA platform then you uploading your results to Gedmatch so their base is smaller. That, at least, has an opt in for LE. With Ancestry.com, LE has to subpoena them first to avail themselves of their vast subscribership.

Ok..really odd question. LE has said perp is male between 5'9 and 5 '10. Are they saying male because that's the only outlier DNA they have? Many, both here and in the media have remarked the perp has female features. Pretty eyes.. I myself thought the bridge of the nose looked female....slender. Thin eyebrows. Mustache could just be fake.. I know that would kill my stalker theory but, REALLY? How do they know the perp isnt a tall female? Just because they have male DNA of anunknown person doesnt mean it's THIS unknown person! JMO

 

[SMK777]

This is such a great video and makes so much sense. I think she was kidnapped for ransom, subcombed to her injuries so no proof of life and their plan was now foiled. Now where did they put her is the question. Sad to.say i think she is no longer with us. Thank you for posting this

And if the above scenario is true, the perp may have committed suicide or left the country.

 

[SMK777]

Until the DNA comes in , if it even matches anyone, the case is cold

Yeah, pretty much.

 

[Serononin]

Magnets on a telescopic tip are used to pick up ammo/bullet/shotgun cartridges at shooting ranges, bird shoots. Called a “cartridge collector” (solid brass or aluminum not magnetic ). Building trades use for spilled screws/nails.

I have a telescopic flashlight with a magnet at both ends. I've only used it to pick up dropped pins while sewing, but I think the magnets would also be strong enough to pick up larger objects

 

[warp3dwing]

Part 3 (again, JMO, etc. … thoughts and perceptions after the conversation)

What was happening between 1:40 and around 2:20?

Kidnappings of strangers for ransom are not typically done by one person. But this abduction does not have hallmarks of organized crime, so it may be one person. The post-abduction period has been chaotic. As we’ve all noted, the delay in the ransom demand and the lack of proof of life have not followed the script at all. Nor does the kidnapping seem to have hallmarks of an ideological basis or revemge, because usually kidnappers are fast to get their political message out once the person is abducted, in those cases.

So what likely happened on arrival?

It seems likely Lantana man arrived at the scene and needed to set up carefully before the actual abduction began. Being calm and methodical in the lead-up is what a criminal aims for with this kind of complex criminal act. While wearing normal clothes and a reflective backpack seems amateur, it may have been about blending in if a neighbor happened to glimpse something from a distance. A guy in trainers and a reflective backpack might not trigger the suspicion, even at 1-2 a.m., that a glimpse of a figure in black would. (This is assuming the mask was not yet on or was not apparent at the distance.)

Taking the abductee out the fastest and simplest route from home to vehicle is ideal, especially when the abductee has physical limitations. That step is about speed of getting in and getting away. It would be unsurprising to break in to the side or back of the house, out of sight, through the easiest route, but leave through the front, given the apparent arrangement of the house.

But especially if Lantana Man were working alone or with one other person, having a methodical set-up before the abduction would be key. So it is possible an early step that night was to set up/secure the exit, knowing he would not have the chance to do that well while also paying careful attention to managing NG. He may have cut the wifi off or jammed it or believed he had. Upon entering the porch and seeing the Nest light come on, he probably tried to remove it. As there likely had been no contact with Nancy then, it may have quickly occurred to him in those moments to improvise so that as he was working on the camera, if Nancy got a notification, she would not see his masked face but instead flowers–which maybe would be weird to her but less instantly terrifying than a masked face (and keep in mind he was not seeing what the lantana looked like on the camera, only knowing he should not he seen by her while removing the camera). Again, what looks amateur actually seems to be someone who is managing the stress remarkably well and improvising when something goes wrong. Many people may have been underestimating how well the guy managed this part. He seemingly removes the camera and takes it around 1:50.

But from here, there are two key possibilities. He may be questioning whether NG got an alert and saw him with the Nest camera, or he may not be sure if the Nest lighting up meant an automated call to police. If so, he may be retreating to a safe distance to observe whether police arrive. Ready to abort the abduction, and waiting to see if he needs to. Getting his nerve up, possibly. It would be understandable to wait 15-30 minutes before initiating the main action, if that was his mindset.

Or he may just take a few minutes more to quietly set up the scene. Once the camera is taken care of and he’s checked for others, he can pull the car up to the porch to be ready to move NG and go quickly when they have her. He may be setting up the scene at the back of the house, taking out floodlights, preparing tools, whatever. Just being very methodical for the highest likelihood of getting in, getting NG, and getting out quickly.

….

It’s midnight central European time, so I’m stopping there for now with my notes/thoughts/altered viewpoints from talking to a criminologist. This is taking me forever to type up, so I hope it’s useful to others, too, amidst the chaos of the situation. If my kids are recovered enough tomorrow from the flu, I will try to write up the last few parts.

This is great, thank you! Hearing from actual experts is a privilege. Looking forward to the next installment.

 

[shonyakay]

IMO, because the ransom-demander doesn't have it (NG's body) OR because the ransom-demander knows that release of NG's body would likely provide evidence that might lead back to identifying who they are.

Facts are stacking up against the ransom-demander being the same criminal as the burglar-abductor:

Ransom was not demanded immediately, it was demanded Monday, Feb 2 while NG was apparently taken in the very early morning hours of February 1. (This suggests that the ransom-demander developed the idea of ransom demand because NG is the mother of a known-wealthy individual AND the ransom-demander learned some facts through early - Feb 1 or morning of Feb 2 - leaks via LE and/or media that he/she then used to "prove" he/she had been in the NG home.)
Ransom was not demanded through communication sent directly to family or to LE; the communication was sent through media outlets. (This seems designed to gain the use of the public and their shared fear that NG is currently at risk of greater injury or even death as leverage.)
Ransom demander gave two deadlines (first Thursday after NG disappeared and then second Monday after NG disappeared). And more recently, established another, a third deadline. (When has this EVER happened - one, no... two, no... three deadlines? EVERY communication is a piece of evidence that further informs very skilled LE in development of a profile that fits the ransom demander. IF SG's recitation of what appear to be "scripted" lines is based on the ransom-demander's instructions, this is even more so.)
Ransom demander has accompanied the latest demand with a reportedly graphic threat if the deadline passes without payment; yet at no point has ransom demander provided ANY proof of life to back up their claim that they in fact have NG. (They cannot provide proof of life because they do not have NG; and if they DO have NG but she has already died, then their threat is empty and they are just still trying to leverage the public's shared fear that NG is currently at risk of greater injury or even death.)

Can they even offer proof of life without risk of being caught though?

I wished this ransom author was as stupid as Dennis Rader who believed LE when they told him a floppy disk couldn't be traced.

 

[Diddian]

I wrote earlier on that I had given up faith in his ability to lead this investigation. The former sheriff is outraged at his handling of the case and he does not have the support of his department from what the previous sheriff said in the video I posted.

Nanos has only been sheriff since 2021 and was immediately embroiled in controversy.

This act shows his gross incompetence in my opinion

ALL of this can wait until after the perpetrator(s) are captured, prosecuted, and convicted. In the meantime, all this public analysis of the PCSO supposed incompetence, wrong decision making, etc. potentially DEVALUES any evidence that is gathered, collected, analyzed, evaluated, etc.

And if this goes on for an extended time and the perpetrators are not captured, it can come out then.

 

[Napoli]

Ransom was not demanded through communication sent directly to family or to LE; the communication was sent through media outlets. (This seems designed to gain the use of the public and their shared fear that NG is currently at risk of greater injury or even death as leverage.)

Or it is designed to get maximum coverage and publicity? Family directed ransom demands stay quiet. This perp wanted notoriety. The use of an entertainment station.....TMZ, makes me think this is someone who wants maximum social exposure. In show business, as they say, No such thing as bad publicity, right? JMO MOO

 

[Diddian]

Can they even offer proof of life without risk of being caught though?

I wished this ransom author was as stupid as Dennis Rader who believed LE when they told him a floppy disk couldn't be traced.

One would think the ransom-demander would have considered that and come up with something when making plans.

I'll wait to dismiss the possibility that the perpetrator(s) are as stupid as Dennis Rader until the perpetrator(s) is/are identified. Bryan Kohberger likely thought he was smarter than DR but BK used his own vehicle, traveled to the area of the crime many times prior to the crime, had his phone on while traveling to - then turned it off while approaching Moscow, then turned it back on after leaving Moscow via a different direction, and he left the sheath of his knife (with his own DNA on the snap closure) in the bed of one of his victims. And he acted like a psychopath in his PhD program for months before he committed the crime.

ETA: Hoping digital analysis of phones/vehicles in the area over the course of last month or more produces something of value.

 

[armchairagatha]

This is FAR from being a cold case. There are hundreds of investigators working thousands of leads. Perhaps the right one is number 1999 and they are working on number 1300. Everyone is becoming impatient, understandably, because a beloved mother's life is at stake. Personally, I'd rather the media backed off, let everyone do their jobs and waited for an official announcement. Dozens of fluff stories are not helpful. MOO.

Hundreds of investigators working for how much longer? Would they have done it for anyone else? How many hours/days are dedicated to other kidnapped or missing folks, heck even murdered folks? While I certainly hope NG is found alive, it is also frustrating that she is getting all this attention from LE and FBI only because she is the mother of a TV celebrity.

 

[shonyakay]

Hundreds of investigators working for how much longer? Would they have done it for anyone else? How many hours/days are dedicated to other kidnapped or missing folks, heck even murdered folks? While I certainly hope NG is found alive, it is also frustrating that she is getting all this attention from LE and FBI only because she is the mother of a TV celebrity.

Nancy deserves every bit of it but I concur that all missing people deserve the same.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

A United Front needs to happen here between the Sheriff and the FBI

This needs to stop what is happening at the moment

And a Media Conference should be scheduled for a particular day, then mention that we will have another update scheduled for next week, etc.

Obviously, they can't talk about specific police intelligence, but they can give a rundown on what has happened

At the moment, there is NO United Front, and too many discrepancies

 

[Napoli]

MORE OF THIS TYPE OF IN DEPTH ANALYSIS, PLEASE!!!

You say:

He was spotted unknowingly by the front door camera? I haven't heard that, unless you are talking about the "other" video where the perp is shown without the backpack and gun and LE told us all the video was taken from the same night.

Even if Perp managed to obscure camera with lantana, chances are neighbors had cameras. He couldn't disable them all. Maybe a vehicle parked on the street will emerge from one of those. JMO

 

[Silverstorm]

Thank you Shony. It was in 1991, Middlesex, NJ. Still on the internet. Mom's name was Anita Hoynes, and she was murdered in her home, by a former foster child she and my dad took in. It was horrible, but we had great support from everyone. He got a Life sentence, but just came up for parole a month ago, and thankfully can't apply for parole for another 3 years. A Life sentence is not a life sentence in NJ for the killer, but only for the family. No good deed goes unpunished. I hate that phrase, but it applied in my family's case. Hoping for the best in Nancy's case.

I’m so sorry for the loss of your mom.

 

[nycpizzaparty]

Even if Perp managed to obscure camera with lantana, chances are neighbors had cameras. He couldn't disable them all. Maybe a vehicle parked on the street will emerge from one of those. JMO

But it's pitch black with IR cameras that weakly capture distant objects, and houses are far apart. And if perp had a brain he turned the lights off on the car. Pop on some infra goggles.

 

[Diddian]

this post from SanFrancisco Investigates .. are those teeth in this photoView attachment 647042

It's hard to say. Could be his teeth, but there is far too little definition to be sure. It could be that what is seen between the masked person's lips is one of those small keyring lights that need just be compressed to light.

Hoping he/she drooled. And that it was picked up by swab.

 

[warp3dwing]

Can they even offer proof of life without risk of being caught though?

I wished this ransom author was as stupid as Dennis Rader who believed LE when they told him a floppy disk couldn't be traced.

I suppose they could’ve sent info only known to Nancy and her family in the ransom emails. It wouldn’t even have to be a photo. Would’ve been better than nothing. (Unless they did do that, and that’s why LE thinks she is - or was - alive.)

 

[thefragile7393]

I haven't met a Sheriff that isn't controversial or that had'nt had a faction against him.

It's political, imo. It's more overt when it used to be covert. Even in the middle of a active investigation they can't accept its his job and he is working it as elected.

Further It's condemning the deputies and the whole team working hard at their jobs when they need support the most. They have lives that need attention too as this draws on.

Even sort of conceding the SO succeeds in some way sounds so reluctant!


Imo

No....it's....more then that. Not political IMO. If you're local, you know.

 

[Gunther Toody]

ALL of this can wait until after the perpetrator(s) are captured, prosecuted, and convicted. In the meantime, all this public analysis of the PCSO supposed incompetence, wrong decision making, etc. potentially DEVALUES any evidence that is gathered, collected, analyzed, evaluated, etc.

And if this goes on for an extended time and the perpetrators are not captured, it can come out then.

And you are what...the hall monitor? I posted direct commentary from the previous sheriff, and it reflects on the current sheriffs ability to lead this investigation.