• #38,121
Chilling. I was leaning towards a hit on the wrong house, but this seems to be targeted IMO.
definitely targeted, there are zero other options at this point
 
  • #38,122
At this point, I trust what Brian Entin says on this matter more than the sheriff. I think we're all tired of the whiplash JMO.
The sheriff is doing the same thing he did with the cameras being busted, and there being forced entry - he's saying "that didn't come from us," but isn't denying the veracity of those details.
 
  • #38,123
  • #38,124
Agreed that Nancy will be located very close to her house. JMO.

Dramatic twist in Nancy Guthrie case as sheriffs arrive at neighbor’s home​

The hunt for Nancy Guthrie has now officially reached its fourth week. On the 22nd day of searching for Nancy Guthrie, deputies from the Pima County Sheriff's Office arrived at her next-door neighbor's residence. What they're seeking remains unknown at this point.

KVOA News first documented footage showing three law enforcement officers examining the exterior of the adjacent property. This follows revelations from a former FBI agent who disclosed a covert phrase that Savannah included in her communication to the abductors.

I don't think there is anything new, but this was recent. JMO

 
  • #38,125
Has the FBI cleared anyone or would that lead come strictly from the Sheriff department?
 
  • #38,126
This to me is completely unacceptable as far as, was anyone watching her cameras? Why would she have cameras and NOT have them connected to the service? We have cameras and we will look to see every day what showed up , animal or delivery etc. WAY TOO MANY homes in that Neighborhood have had people on their porches in the MIDDLE of the night! I’d move out of that neighborhood if I lived there! This is nutts!
Personal preference. Concern about misuse of personal data by tech giants.

There are lots of reasons someone may chose to install security cameras and analyze them daily, as you do. Not installing cameras or installing cameras but not uploading data are equally reasonable choices.
 
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  • #38,127
He didn't necessarily go over there in the same costume twice. Mission accomplished between late sat nite and early sun morning. Maybe or not, lurking and saw NG brought home near 10 pm. Waited for her to go to bed, then entered the house. We don't know how long he was there. jmo...or who else, was. Porch man may never have gone in house, if accomplice DID.
 
  • #38,128
Let’s hope she IS alive. Wonder if they will be able to search? Not much water right around there.
Edited to add: their primary mission is to search for live victims
<bbm>

If Nancy is still alive, there is no reason they can't be providing proof of life. Maybe they have and it's not been publicized, but unless they can provide it, they aren't operating in good faith and expecting to get one red cent.
 
  • #38,129
He didn't necessarily go over there in the same costume twice. Mission accomplished between late sat nite and early sun morning. Maybe or not, lurking and saw NG brought home near 10 pm. Waited for her to go to bed, then entered the house. We don't know how long he was there. jmo
We also don't know what date the first footage is from.
 
  • #38,130
Notice: AI Usage (because this is what it's good at!)

I requested Claude.ai to compare moon phase and cloud cover for January, 2026.

Notes:
BRIGHT nights: Jan 2, 9, 10, 30, 31, and Feb 1
DARK nights: Jan 7, 17–24, and Jan 28

Data sources:
Cloud cover: Historical Weather API | Open-Meteo.com
Moon phase: Python library astropy


View attachment 647882View attachment 647881

As always, this must be double-checked with the data and corroborated with other sources.
Jan 3rd was a full moon so a few days before, and after, if the sky was clear- bright.
The full moon in January 2026 (the Wolf Moon) reaches peak illumination on Saturday, January 3, at 5:03 a.m. EST. This event is also classified as a supermoon, meaning the Moon will appear larger and brighter than usual as it is at its closest point to Earth.
  • Date: January 3, 2026
 
  • #38,131
The intent was a rape and murder of a vulnerable female. As I've posted many times, I've followed a retired FBI Profiler for quite some time. Before NG was taken, the profiler had stated that when an elderly female who lives alone is raped/murdered, it's more often than not, a neighbor's teenage son.

Since we learned today that the 2 photos of the porch perp were taken on separate nights, I'm more persuaded than ever that this is the case here. This dude lives close to NG's home. He has been able to conduct surveillance easily because of this. Who knows how long he watched her?

I'm going to get a bit graphic here, so please don't read any further if you'd rather not.

I believe that he went inside NG's home and raped her. She knew him because he was one of her neighbor's sons. This is why he wasn't going to leave the house with her still alive, and he certainly wasn't leaving her body behind, which contained evidence.

By the time NG was reported missing, she was no longer alive. He has disposed of her body in the desert. When/if her remains are recovered, she won't be far from home. And it's all so very, very sad.

MOO.
What water sources are nearby? Pond?
 
  • #38,132
well... it certainly has instigated a lot of chatter... good distraction imo
 
  • #38,133
  • #38,134
I have a question for the sleuthers. Let’s just pretend for a moment that there is NO ransom ( faux or real)

If we look at this from the angle that there is nothing else known other than NG last seen approximate timeline, potential POIs raids , recovered Nest doorbell video, and the immediate family being publicly cleared …. What do you see, believe, or feel? Take away motive… what’s the intent?
  1. Robbery by someone known to NG. Thought they could get money/other things they could sell while she slept, but she woke up. Bad things ensued.
  2. True abduction because they wanted her for whatever reason. Not as likely, but possible especially if she reminded them of someone or they wanted to "punish" a family member (if they knew who she was).
  3. SA either gone wrong (she fought too much, got hurt, etc), or went the way planned (no plan on letting her live)
  4. Outright murder because they just wanted to kill someone thinking an elderly person would be easy. Could be someone who worked on the property, or targeted her some other way (family member of someone who knows NG, store worker, gas station attendant who help pump gas in car, anything) . Probably didn't even know who she was. Might be the beginnings of a serial killer.
  5. Outright murder because NG reminded them of someone. Rage killing. Also might be the beginnings of a serial killer.
Those were my first thoughts, but granted I had no idea who Savannah Guthrie was (still mostly don't). I may come up with a few more thoughts if I somehow magically get some extra time for more research.

All of the above is JMO.
 
  • #38,135
It's interesting that the photos were taken on different days. In his tweet, Kash Patel said that all the photos were taken on the morning that NG was kidnapped.

But them being taken on different days might explain the lack of shadows in one of them, (It also appears to be a thumbnail). I trust Brian Entin's sources.

JMO
Definitely the more reliable source, IMO.
 
  • #38,136
If true, this leaves little doubt that Nancy was in fact the intended victim and that it wasn't a 'wrong house' type of scenario. As such, we can throw the 'gem show neighbor' theory out.

This also confirms that the house was cased at least sometime in advance, so likely not some druggie or impulsive type looking for a quick fix. Rather, it gives credence to the idea of careful planning, which makes a stronger case for kidnapping for ransom or kidnapping for revenge (i.e. an aggrieved fan of some sort).

It may even mean he knew about the camera ahead of time but thought a Wifi jammer or something disabled it.

This also means that the appearance by him with gear on isn't necessarily after the crime had already been committed.

This also means that he could've committed the kidnapping alone and wasn't necessarily opening the door after the fact. (Although still some logistical and potential strength hurdles to overcome if solo).

I'm sure there are lots of other things it means once we parse it out, but still significant news is true.

JMO.
It means he was stalking her. Jmo
 
  • #38,137
Jan 3rd was a full moon so a few days before, and after, if the sky was clear- bright.
The full moon in January 2026 (the Wolf Moon) reaches peak illumination on Saturday, January 3, at 5:03 a.m. EST. This event is also classified as a supermoon, meaning the Moon will appear larger and brighter than usual as it is at its closest point to Earth.
  • Date: January 3, 2026
Interesting, thanks. It looks like the date would be more likely to be later in January, around the 20th or later. That's if the dark image is a reflection of low moonlight and/or high cloud cover and not an anomaly caused by the camera's shortcomings.
 
  • #38,138
I don’t know, good thought tho. I just remembered there were conversations about the bump possibly being a ring on his finger. Now in my case it’s possible one of my arthritic knuckles would look odd in a glove. But I don’t think the perp is afflicted with gnarly fingers yet.
I guess it all depends if what’s shown behind him is in the correct order.
 
  • #38,139
If true, this leaves little doubt that Nancy was in fact the intended victim and that it wasn't a 'wrong house' type of scenario. As such, we can throw the 'gem show neighbor' theory out.

This also confirms that the house was cased at least sometime in advance, so likely not some druggie or impulsive type looking for a quick fix. Rather, it gives credence to the idea of careful planning, which makes a stronger case for kidnapping for ransom or kidnapping for revenge (i.e. an aggrieved fan of some sort).

It may even mean he knew about the camera ahead of time but thought a Wifi jammer or something disabled it.

This also means that the appearance by him with gear on isn't necessarily after the crime had already been committed.

This also means that he could've committed the kidnapping alone and wasn't necessarily opening the door after the fact. (Although still some logistical and potential strength hurdles to overcome if solo).

I'm sure there are lots of other things it means once we parse it out, but still significant news is true.

JMO.
Gem show neighbor?
 
  • #38,140
With my phone, if I don't open the notifications for X number of days, the security app is put into "deep sleep" and I no longer receive notifications until I re-open the app on my phone. I usually remember to do this pretty quickly; however, my elderly mother has called me several times asking why her cameras aren't working anymore and I've had to remind her to open the app on her phone to keep getting notifications.

Just pointing that out. Entirely possible she wasn't seeing notifications.
I got the impression NG wasn’t really paying attention to the door cams. She had let the subscription lapse ( which would have saved videos), and likely wasn’t even looking at alerts, live shots. I don’t think we heard how long her subscription had lapsed. Maybe she put in cameras with the first “ free” month( of revording), then never paid subscription after that, was not aware cameras were not working as they could. For instance, the ability to immediately and easily pull up videos.

JMO
 

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