AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[TheDinks]

Maybe she met them years ago through their practice? Grief counseling? Also, LDs father was very religious so it stands to reason so is his wife. Perhaps through church?

Father was pastor at some time, I believe, so they easily could have come across one another.

 

[Onlyguessing23]

I still feel that this was a targeted operation by a semi-organized group/faction. They needed a stage and a megaphone (NG, SG, TMZ) to announce their grievances and demands. The careful wording of any released information from the demand notes by the selected media outlets seems to support this theory. I don’t think the demands were for currency only. Nor do I believe the “or else” was directed toward NG or any one person. It follows that the FBI knows who the perps are. It has certainly garnered and held some high level attention. I am still hopeful that NG is being cared for. All my speculation only.

 

[OldCop]

My dudes. How in the holy h*ll did LD ever end up the way he did with his extensive criminal record??? I mean, by reading his father's obit, the doctor was amazing and beloved in the community and his mother is/was also a medical professional. I am STILL so confused.

After many years in LE, I have seen some of the worst kids come from the best homes and some of the best kids come from the worst homes. Of course you never know what goes on behind closed doors. A well to do family that seems to want for nothing may be hiding behind a secret of drug use or mental health issues. Or there are those few kids that are just bad; attention seekers, psychopaths. Then you have the run down house with the broken down car in the yard. Inside it’s neat and clean, housing the most loving family, not seeming to have much but each other. Their kids go to school every day with clean clothes, (even if they are hand-me-downs), and clean faces.
I have never forgotten participating in a raid at a drug house. The place was filthy, people passed out on the floor, drugs and drug paraphernalia everywhere in full view, disgusting bathrooms and bedding that hadn’t been washed in months.
I came around the corner into a kitchen that was piled with dirty dishes, half eaten containers of fast food, a nearly empty fridge, and a kitchen table covered with remnants of past meals that lay spoiling and many empty beer and liquor bottles. The table had been cleared in one small area. There sat an eleven year old boy, school books piled in front of him, oblivious to his awful surroundings, patiently working on his arithmetic homework. The scene stopped me cold. What on earth gave this child the tenacity and inner strength to look ahead and see his way out of the hell he lived in? I’ve thought of him often over the years. I wonder how he made out in life.

 

[AggieLou]

70.00

Posting from several hundred pages back (Had to take a break for a few days). I feel like something was majorly fumbled in this investigation. It seems way too slow and messy for something of this scale. MOO

I think it has a lot to do with the huge following, national interest and 10s of thousands of tips. They have to review, assign a priority, assess urgency, etc. There likely is a team that does this. Think back to the murders of Abby and Libby. They received the tip that solved the murders 5 months prior to when it surfaced again.

 

[SlimPickens]

Building further, LD, LD's Mom, and Nancy all appear to be deeply rooted in Tucson and for many, many years (decades). And not just in Tucson, but it seems in that particular area of Tucson and within a couple of miles of one another. It then follows that there could very well be an established connection of some sort somewhere down the line, whether personal, professional, or otherwise. It has been reported that Nancy either worked at or volunteered at a Tucson hospital at one time (and for years it seems), so coming into contact with medical providers and those working in affiliated professions would've likely been a regular occurrence for her. I imagine she has probably established many longstanding relationships within the medical community there.

Indeed, if LD, LD's Mom, and other detainees are responsible in some way for this, either directly or indirectly, then the motive could be personal in some way.

JMO.

Building even further, with the report earlier that the image of Lantana man in the doorway without backpack/gun was from an earlier date (assuming 1/11 since LE put out a statement looking for more video from that date), then one can reasonably infer that a perpetrator casing the scene of an eventual crime 20 days beforehand is an indication that he knows who he is casing and that he likely lives fairly close by.

We also need to remember that LE only released a single blurry image from that day, and it was probably a video still. That means they probably have a lot more footage either in hand or incoming.

JMO.

 

[Ghostwheel]

I don't believe the sheriff. You don't recover video files/images without recovering the associated metadata. Metadata would be preserved as it's embedded within the image- it's not something stored separate from the file. This metadata would include timestamps.

JMO

It is possible to lose the metadata associated with an image video, profile, what have you. If these were saved normally, there is no way they couldn't find the metadata from a backup somewhere, IMO. However, I have seen metadata get written over on profiles in space that is marked as delete, so I, personally, can't rule out that that really bad image without the backpack may be missing it's metadata.

You also have to listen to what was said, I think.
“There is no date or time stamp associated with these images." My translation: We haven't associated any date or timestamp to the images at the moment, but the VIDEO likely has some kind of timestamp associated with it. Notice it wasn't mentioned.

"Therefore, any suggestion that the photographs were taken on different days is purely speculative.” My translation: We aren't going to confirm if we know these were taken on different days, or deny they were taken on different days so you have no choice except to speculate with suggestions.

People say a lot when they think they are saying nothing, imo.

 

[Andreee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026143597868015976

<Modfix: I think this is the link desired>

 

[LRinCA]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026172803469500923

Link to article:

Excerpt:

Nanos also addressed questions about whether the masked suspect may have returned on a different day.

“It could be accurate,” Nanos says about the masked suspect returning on a different day, because he’s not wearing a backpack or gun holster with a weapon in one of them. “We just don’t have evidence to support when each image was taken… There is no date or timestamp and we are still investigating it.”

Sheriff In Nancy Guthrie Kidnapping Case Says There Is 'No Evidence' Suspect Came to Her Home on a Day Prior to Abduction

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos tells PEOPLE there is "no evidence" that the suspect in the disappearance of Savannah Guthrie's mother Nancy went to Nancy's home before she was last seen on Jan. 31.

people.com

 

[submarine7]

This entire event is surreal.

Do people think that if LD is involved, the motive was financial?

 

[Spectrix]

The masked man who is suspected of the abduction of Nancy Guthrie appears to have been at her front door earlier than Feb. 1, the night police believe she was kidnapped, sources familiar with the investigation told ABC News.

I posted about this last week, questioning if the No-Backpack image was from a different night.
There are various clues in videos and images released.

Nancy is thought to have been taken in the early hours of February 1st, which was a clear night with a very bright full moon. For reference Moonrise was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m.

In the No-Backpack image:

• The image is cropped and very low resolution (possibly a thumbnail image which may not have metadata showing the time/date that the original image was captured)
• No shadow from moonlight
• Sky looks completely black (if it was a random cloud covering the moon, surely we'd be seeing the clouds illuminated by the bright moonlight)

I grabbed a frame from one of the videos to compare (on the right) note that I cropped and resized it to match the no backpack image shown on the left:

 

[Arkay]

After many years in LE, I have seen some of the worst kids come from the best homes and some of the best kids come from the worst homes. Of course you never know what goes on behind closed doors. A well to do family that seems to want for nothing may be hiding behind a secret of drug use or mental health issues. Or there are those few kids that are just bad; attention seekers, psychopaths. Then you have the run down house with the broken down car in the yard. Inside it’s neat and clean, housing the most loving family, not seeming to have much but each other. Their kids go to school every day with clean clothes, (even if they are hand-me-downs), and clean faces.
I have never forgotten participating in a raid at a drug house. The place was filthy, people passed out on the floor, drugs and drug paraphernalia everywhere in full view, disgusting bathrooms and bedding that hadn’t been washed in months.
I came around the corner into a kitchen that was piled with dirty dishes, half eaten containers of fast food, a nearly empty fridge, and a kitchen table covered with remnants of past meals that lay spoiling and many empty beer and liquor bottles. The table had been cleared in one small area. There sat an eleven year old boy, school books piled in front of him, oblivious to his awful surroundings, patiently working on his arithmetic homework. The scene stopped me cold. What on earth gave this child the tenacity and inner strength to look ahead and see his way out of the hell he lived in? I’ve thought of him often over the years. I wonder how he made out in life.

Beautifully expressed, @OldCop

When it comes to how LD could be such a mess when he had loving parents, well, we’ve all seen this all over Websleuths and in the news.

As a NYC teacher of 8th graders for 25 years, I truly appreciate this post.

Although I didn’t enter their homes, I did meet with parents constantly.

Some of the most obstreperous kids had the most loving and well-off parents, with excellent careers.

Conversely, some of the students who most prized their education came from homes of full neglect.

That’s when the school would send men or women like you to their homes.

One of my favorite students at 13 years old was an awesome child, but in his 20s was involved in the George Smith murder on a cruise ship.

You just never know.

JMO and experience.

 

[Gr3yW0lf78]

Neither the PCSO nor the FBI has any obligation to the public to provide truthful information if obfuscation advances investigatory strategy. They must believe that this was targeted and that the public is not in danger of this criminal. I believe they have almost enough to charge someone. Patience.

 

[cathathorse]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026172803469500923

Link to article:

Excerpt:

Nanos also addressed questions about whether the masked suspect may have returned on a different day.

“It could be accurate,” Nanos says about the masked suspect returning on a different day, because he’s not wearing a backpack or gun holster with a weapon in one of them. “We just don’t have evidence to support when each image was taken… There is no date or timestamp and we are still investigating it.”

Sheriff In Nancy Guthrie Kidnapping Case Says There Is 'No Evidence' Suspect Came to Her Home on a Day Prior to Abduction

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos tells PEOPLE there is "no evidence" that the suspect in the disappearance of Savannah Guthrie's mother Nancy went to Nancy's home before she was last seen on Jan. 31.

people.com

The sheriff should just be quiet. From that same People magazine interview above:

“There is no evidence to support that… and there is no evidence to support it was all on the same day,”

No evidence. A defense attorney will have a field day with that. I think his ego has gotten the better of him and is hurting the case. Every interview he gives is contradictory and he refuses to hold press conferences or have a public information officer speak for him in order to ensure information is delivered clearly; instead, he has one-on-one media interviews with hand picked media outlets where his disdain for something (I'm not sure what) can't help but seep through. I feel so bad for the Guthrie family.

 

[SlimPickens]

“It could be accurate,” Nanos says about the masked suspect returning on a different day, because he’s not wearing a backpack or gun holster with a weapon in one of them. “We just don’t have evidence to support when each image was taken… There is no date or timestamp and we are still investigating it.”

"We don't have evidence to support when each image was taken" is not an accurate statement. Perhaps he is naive to their retrieval processes, but the fact that Google techs were able to decipher these images at all indicates that time stamps are known and present.

The real question is did these Google engineers follow chain of evidence procedures to ensure that their brilliant discoveries are admissible in court? Maybe. Maybe not. But evidence that isn't admissible is still evidence.

Me thinks the good Sheriff is being a bit coy.

JMO.

 

[Sessiebo]

But now this tonight from the sheriff...

I'm sorry but the Sheriff is, eh, incompetent let's say.
It's very obvious from the moment they released those images that these are taken on different dates. That's clearly seen from the darkness of the sky.
Also stating that there are no timestamps on the images or video's is him taking everybody for a fool. Ofcourse there is some sort oata attached in some of these files. If there is not, why is he stating the video with backpack is from the day Nancy was taken? How he know..? Come on now, i'm really fed up with this man, honestly

 

[LRinCA]

"We don't have evidence to support when each image was taken" is not an accurate statement. Perhaps he is naive to their retrieval processes, but the fact that Google techs were able to decipher these images at all indicates that time stamps are known and present.

The real question is did these Google engineers follow chain of evidence procedures to ensure that their brilliant discoveries are admissible in court? Maybe. Maybe not. But evidence that isn't admissible is still evidence.

Me thinks the good Sheriff is being a bit coy.

JMO.

My takeaway from all that was kind of Schrödinger's Images (versus cat). Might be, might not be.

 

[wibbleflea]

Purely speculative post here about things the perp could easily have done, but apparently avoided in order to lower risk. No individual thing is remarkable but together, the list suggests a careful but bold thinker.

No direct contact
As far as we know, he didn’t use NG’s phone to obtain SG’s or AG’s contact details. (Given the hoaxer’s texts, AG’s number is presumably easy to find online, but SG’s isn’t.) As far as we know, he didn’t contact either of them directly by text, phone call or some other messaging app. He didn’t issue direct ransom demands, threatening the family with consequences if they contacted LE.

He had a gun, so could have got NG to unlock her phone using a fingerprint or face scan. As far as we know, he didn’t do it. Direct communication would have been a more traditional route for a kidnapping, and a faster one, but way riskier. He chose to avoid the risk.

Car
Assuming he used a vehicle, he either got lucky (unlikely) or knew that the ubiquitous home-surveillance cameras in that part of Tucson wouldn’t be able to record decent footage of vehicles on the street at night, given the local lighting code. (No streetlights, and houses far from the streets.) There are also local protests against Flock cameras that record car license plates – I think he knew all this, and felt he wasn’t at high risk of being identified.

Gear
If he’d gone to the nearest Walmart and bought all his kidnap gear in a single transaction shortly beforehand, I think he’d have been identified by now. Or if he’d chosen unusual, more expensive stuff, perhaps. He did neither. He selected from widely available items, and apparently adopted a purchase strategy smart enough to have blended in, so far. There are Walmarts everywhere – not just in the US but in Mexico and Canada. I’ve seen reports claiming that that specific ski mask is only available online. I don’t know if the claims are valid, but if so, that fact hasn’t led to the perp’s identification.

Writing
We haven’t seen the ransom note, but Harvey Levin, a licensed attorney (for what that’s worth), praised its structure and writing quality. I think it’s safe to say HL was impressed and surprised. (See his interview with Chris Cuomo on Newsnation.) If the ransom note came from the perp, Levin’s observations are significant. Whatever you think of his business choices, Harvey isn’t dumb. (And the note did reportedly describe a non-obvious location for the watch and the destruction of the rear floodlights.)

Online anonymity
If the ransom notes are the abductor’s, he has managed to send one or two of them electronically without being traced. Perhaps three, if the third note was genuine. That isn’t as easy as it sounds, for most people. Despite Levin’s casual use of the term ‘email’, I think (speculation) that all the tips were submitted using web forms. That’s actually a smart choice. (There isn’t a published email address for the tip line on the TMZ website and Levin said “the letter” came through to the tip line, which is fed by a web form. TMZ receives each submission as an email.) Sending real email anonymously is direct and fast, but harder. The perp’s decision to avoid it is another sign of risk management. If he used VPNs and/or anonymisers, he did it well.

Patience
When KOLD and KGUN didn’t publicise the first note, the perp waited and went to TMZ a day later. He didn’t panic and switch to direct contact with the family. TMZ doesn’t seem like an obvious choice, but it worked.

Disguise
No one has identified the perp from the video clips that have made headlines. Whatever he did to disguise himself – possibly even modifying his gait – has been effective enough to prevent identification for a couple of weeks. The photos and videos have been viewed widely. But there has been no cluster of tips around a single name, leading to an arrest.

Unthinkable
Video aside, no one among NG’s family or friends has had a strong enough suspicion about someone within their social circles for that person to have emerged as a leading candidate, and then to have been investigated and arrested. Did the perp know he was safe? That no one would ever dream it would be him? Or is he just distant enough to be out of mind?

Electronic trails
So far, LE hasn’t traced him using electronic or written records – phone pings, vehicle GPS, highway cameras, hotel bookings, gun sales, holster sales.
———-

In a case like this, with so much public interest and hundreds of officials involved, each point is an achievement. Taken together, they seem like more than luck.

There’s a lot of guesswork and speculation above, because we don’t know the state of the investigation or even whether the ransom notes are real. We don’t know if fortune has just been on the perp’s side. But it’s possible that he is very good at thinking, planning likely outcomes, and managing the downsides. That lantana business made him look amateurish, but perhaps he didn’t care because knew that it didn’t raise his chance of failure, and that’s all he cared about.

More than that, he’s also comfortable carrying out an ultra-high-profile, unusual crime without panicking or arousing the suspicion of anyone in a position to report it. No report of a suspect husband, son, brother or colleague has led to an arrest.

Bold, smart (or very lucky) and callous.

Note: I have a solid track record of overestimating criminals.

 

[Bodhi]

So the Sheriff is saying that they don’t know when the no backpack image was from? Did I get that right?

The sheriff's statement does not address whether LE knows the date or time.

The Pima County Sheriff's Department is clarifying that the images and video released by the FBI director do not include date or time stamps. Therefore, any reporting that the images are from different days is speculation.

In other words, outlets are drawing a conclusion that is not in the evidence officially released. It's reminding journalists and the public that speculation not supported by the facts hampers the investigation.

The dates and times are not apparent in the released videos or the stills. It's my opinion that the sheriff's office and FBI know that information from other data. We know from the timeline that another camera detected motion because it triggered a notification. We don't know if video of that event was overwritten or recovered. But the notification itself, the date, and time have been in the official timeline since early on. That indicates LE also knows the dates and times the kidnapper triggered the doorbell cam separately from the footage itself. MOO.

I believe investigators deliberately held back the dates and times the doorbell cam recorded the footage for investigative reasons. And that's why the sheriff promptly knocked down conjecture reported as "news." IMO. The strong statement reminds media outlets that extrapolating can be detrimental to the investigation.

 

[Falling Down]

I posted about this last week, questioning if the No-Backpack image was from a different night.
There are various clues in videos and images released.

Nancy is thought to have been taken in the early hours of February 1st, which was a clear night with a very bright full moon. For reference Moonrise was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m.

In the No-Backpack image:

• The image is cropped and very low resolution (possibly a thumbnail image which may not have metadata showing the time/date that the original image was captured)
• No shadow from moonlight
• Sky looks completely black (if it was a random cloud covering the moon, surely we'd be seeing the clouds illuminated by the bright moonlight)

I grabbed a frame from one of the videos to compare (on the right) note that I cropped and resized it to match the no backpack image shown on the left:

Great analysis.

I'd like to add some moon and meteorological data to this. It looks like there was no significant cloud cover that night. I attached the moon data for 1:47 AM on the 1st of February, as it related to Tucson, AZ. It was a full and bright moon that night. The New Moon had been on Jan. the 18th.

 

[mrjitty]

The sheriff's statement does not address whether LE knows the date or time.

The Pima County Sheriff's Department is clarifying that the images and video released by the FBI director do not include date or time stamps. Therefore, any reporting that the images are from different days is speculation.

In other words, outlets are drawing a conclusion that is not in the evidence officially released. It's reminding journalists and the public that speculation not supported by the facts hampers the investigation.

The dates and times are not apparent in the released videos or the stills. It's my opinion that the sheriff's office and FBI know that information from other data. We know from the timeline that another camera detected motion because it triggered a notification. We don't know if video of that event was overwritten or recovered. But the notification itself, the date, and time have been in the official timeline since early on. That indicates LE also knows the dates and times the kidnapper triggered the doorbell cam separately from the footage itself. MOO.

I believe investigators deliberately held back the dates and times the doorbell cam recorded the footage for investigative reasons. And that's why the sheriff promptly knocked down conjecture reported as "news." IMO. The strong statement reminds media outlets that extrapolating can be detrimental to the investigation.

View attachment 647947

Agreed.

I also doubt there is 9D chess going on here. If they knew 100% for sure it was different days, they would say that IMO, now it's leaked. Especially I doubt they would try to muddy this information now, if they knew one way or other for sure.