AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[VegasGirl35]

Does anyone else feel like the answer is right there in front of us? There's been so many good theories and discussions on this forum. One of them has to be right. It feels like when the pieces finally fall into place it's going to be so obvious.

I remember when the Idaho murders first hit the news. I noticed how exceptionally pretty the female victims were and my first thought was, "the killer's gonna be some loser incel mad because he can't get a girl like them." And lo and behold, it basically ended up that way.

 

[SMK777]

Latest I read there were already 750 tips for the $1million reward. Obviously, they are not for the same person. People will turn on anyone, so it seems, for money.

What is needed is for that to motivate someone who really and truly knows one of the actual perps, and can give LE info and a name and location leading to an arrest.

Otherwise, it will be like in the JonBenet Ramsey case, where people were calling in ex-boyfriends and ex-husbands and just basically wasting time.

 

[FaviousM]

Does anyone else feel like the answer is right there in front of us? There's been so many good theories and discussions on this forum. One of them has to be right. It feels like when the pieces finally fall into place it's going to be so obvious.

I remember when the Idaho murders first hit the news. I noticed how exceptionally pretty the female victims were and my first thought was, "the killer's gonna be some loser incel mad because he can't get a girl like them." And lo and behold, it basically ended up that way.

Every reasonable theory has been put out there in this thread at one point or another so someone will end up being correct

 

[Cassie P]

Just catching up on the updates of this case.

Given that we now know the perpetrator(s) seem to have specifically targeted Nancy. Do we think it’s most likely due to her being Savannah’s mother or more so that Nancy was an elderly woman living alone in an expensive home ie an easy target?

It seems quite a coincidence that the older woman has a rich celebrity, well known daughter. NG as random target is less probable, but of course possible.

 

[Vaderman]

Does anyone else feel like the answer is right there in front of us? There's been so many good theories and discussions on this forum. One of them has to be right. It feels like when the pieces finally fall into place it's going to be so obvious.

I remember when the Idaho murders first hit the news. I noticed how exceptionally pretty the female victims were and my first thought was, "the killer's gonna be some loser incel mad because he can't get a girl like them." And lo and behold, it basically ended up that way.

What is your gut telling you in this case?

 

[Trino]

My semi-daily theory has changed again. No longer believe it was connected to a ransom. Not to family. Not directed by someone. Not a robbery. Not to punish SG.

How about "just because?" Maybe a mentally deranged person who wanted to get away with an abduction or murder? Hard to fandom a criminal mind, an amoral person, but they exist. And, with many outsiders in town for the "shows" his presence would not have raised concern.

 

[Angeleyes_7]

Good morning!

Interview on Arizona CBS 5 from yesterday-

Former FBI agent in interview - "no indication it is going to end soon."​

 

[ab01]

After going back and reading more, it sounds like there is a low likelihood that the partial DNA is even related to the perp. imo

I don’t believe DNA is going to be of much use in this case. moo

They definitely are in need of a huge break

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026355925410566652

 

[rebel123]

IMHO

This case was a highly planned out and most definitely targeted kidnapping for ransom in order to specifically extort big money from Savannah Guthrie who had the means to pay six million dollars for the return of her mother.

It was/ is a very sophisticated kidnapping for ransom in several ways.
It was without a doubt NOT a burglary or sexual crime.
It was not a vendetta against Savannah per se, she was simply targeted for her wealth
and for the fact that it was public knowledge that she was close to her mother who lived in Tucson.

Both NBC and Savannah realize (after the fact) that they contributed to the fact that Nancy was targeted. In Savannah’s case she will need to forgive herself for the sake of her own health and for those who love her and need her.

I think that ransom notes sent to TMZ and such were possible duplicates of the same note sent earlier to local law enforcement and/or to NBC for Savannah’s attention- just not disclosed as such.
After no acknowledgment of the earliest note(s), the kidnappers cast a wider net to be sure their important note wasn’t ignored - hence TMZ and local news stations.
The earliest note was legitimately attached to this kidnapping and these kidnappers meant business. No further contact, no negotiations for less than six million dollars.
This was definitely NOT a one man operation.

I will reiterate that it is my belief that this kidnapping was masterminded by people who may be local but definitely have connections south of the border - which is 90 minutes by car from Nancy’s home.
I think Nancy was well into Mexico many hours before the alarm was raised by her friends when she missed their get-together for virtual church worship.

Statistically Mexico has tens of thousands of kidnappings for extortion/ ransom yearly.
One could even say it has a kidnapping culture.

The original note was not written by AI but was analyzed as composed by a non native English speaker.
Thereby the original sharp focus on Savannah’s brother in law who was subsequently and rightfully fully cleared.

The biggest clue by far in this case is the porch videos.
Law enforcement should be commended for extracting those videos.
I don’t think there was any extra masking to hide features.
The facial hair in the video matches copious numbers of locals, copious numbers of gentlemen from south of the border and almost half of the US men’s hockey team that just won gold in the Olympics.
In other words, these aren’t unique features.

I don’t think Nancy had a working burglar alarm. Perps would have checked for that before breaking in the night of the abduction.

How is this kidnapping sophisticated?
1) legitimate ransom note is untraceable- very very advanced computer skills on behalf of perps
2) crypto account for ransom also untraceable - would have been abandoned after authorities deposited their “dusting” money into the account
3) no traceable vehicle that Nancy was abducted in to date
4) no mistakes like “knife sheath” left on scene
5) meticulous planning to assure perps are not identified

I don’t believe these sophisticated perps tossed their black gloves out their truck/van window. Nothing will come of any of the gloves.

I think the kidnappers have covered their tracks/ disposed of/ burned the kidnapping vehicle, disposed of/ burned all clothing and accessories seen in the porch video/ disposed of/ burned Nancy’s body. They have abandoned anything that could tie them via DNA to Nancy- possibly even burned down the remote ranch house where they were holding Nancy.

I think that in time, the FBI will determine which group planned this sophisticated, targeted kidnapping but there will be no evidence to prosecute anyone involved.

I think that the group involved in taking Nancy has carried out numerous successful extortions/ kidnappings for ransom in the past and that this one was the culmination of their past experiences and their brazenness in raising the bar to a much higher bounty.

I don’t think that this will be their last kidnapping or that they will necessarily lay low for any amount of time.

I think these kidnappers truly thought that they had a good chance of obtaining six million dollars from Savannah and that they are disappointed/ angry/frustrated that their well thought out plan didn’t bear fruit this time.

I think their wheels are already spinning towards other possible targets that may bear fruit.

Nonetheless, I’m still joining Savannah in praying for a miracle and my heart truly aches for all of Nancy’s loved ones.

This isn't criticism. If this was so well planned, then the most important part of the plan must of been to keep the 'hostage' alive. The hostage taker/s seem to have 'failed' in the most important part. When 'proof of life' was requested, none was provided. So it seems their plan was 'flawed'.

 

[FaviousM]

It seems quite a coincidence that the older woman has a rich celebrity, well known daughter. NG as random target is less probable, but of course possible.

I'm inclined to agree only because there hasn't been any reports of neighbours experiencing the same "casing" or whatever you want to call the supposed Jan 11th event.

Ignoring that though, NG is still a vulnerable person living in an expensive house and that alone could make her a target

 

[Napoli]

I think it depends on motive. If it was truly a kidnapping for ransom, then Savannah factors in because she's the only family member with that kind of money to pay. If it was a serial killer looking for vulnerable prey, Nancy was an easy target.

With all due respect, there are LOTS of old ladies who themselves or their children that have "money to pay". SG is relatively small potatoes. Yes, SG has money.....so do a lot of famous people. SG's relative worth in the scheme of high profile people is just not that astounding and TBH, she, herself, is just not that much of a stand out celebrity to the masses, IMO. She's not Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, etc. She is seemingly a sweet, smiling, personable girl next door with a national audience who can be seen daily on NBC. and enters our homes via her program. She has discussed her life and family on the Today show and comes across as "approachable".

Ya want access to her? You want her attention? The path is through her mother. I was taught to never count other people's money. The ransom notes may have been real but that was not the primary motivation. It was a distraction, 1930's movie style. JMO

 

[VegasGirl35]

What is your gut telling you in this case?

That it's somebody connected to Nancy. Either a worker who spent time at the property or a relative of a neighbor/acquaintance. The people who directly knew Nancy may not even have intentionally set her up. I could see a roofer shooting the breeze with friends after work, telling them they were at the house of someone with a famous daughter. It wouldn't take much to get the wheels turning.

 

[turaj]

Agree.

The total lack of organized searches in the first 48 hrs is odd unless they knew it was a recovery mission from the start. Even then….

The first 48 hours was key and so much not done. Also I agree I think it was always a recovery mission and much known right that first day. I think the body will be found with so many enticed by the 1M but the perp? Only if someone turns on them for the reward.

 

[ab01]

I’m assuming by now they have released the infamous Range Rover?

 

[Jade]

Hi, I think two quotes got put together as mine.
I do not lack any empathy or sympathy at all for the family.
I'm just appalled that an active crime scene was never really locked down by investigators for long enough. o that anyone can walk all over it, gave pizza and glowers delivered at such an early stage..it's still an active crime scene.

I’m sorry, Savannah’s video had me all upset yesterday.

At the time of the pizza delivery, Feb 10th, the property was no longer an “active crime scene” crime scene tape was removed; the property was turned over to the family about the 3rd.

At that point security patrols fall heavily on the representatives of the missing homeowner who are then responsible for its safety and upkeep.

Private security was supplied by the family initially BUT for some reason the family requested the SO to maintain a presence instead.

If finances were not a matter to me I would have my own security in addition to a county presence knowing how busy they are but maybe there is a reason for that request. Ransom note related? Although I can’t conceive why that would be a demand. Maybe ransom writer thinks the SO can be more easily circumvented?

PCSO still has the rest of the sprawling unincorporated county to tend to in addition to its duty to find Mrs. Guthrie and manage street safety and access for the residents in the face of the massive media presence on the narrow neighborhood streets.

Why a fence was not put to work earlier could be that it is a horrid, ugly need for the dear home and property. Then as time advanced it become obvious there was a necessity.

At least there was no other family living in the home and it could remain inside, as is, making it available for subsequent visits during the investigation there being no further contamination or activity.


...
A spokesperson for the Pima County Sheriff’s Department (PCSD) in Arizona confirmed to PEOPLE on Sunday, Feb. 8, that at the request of the Guthrie family, the department will "maintain a presence at Nancy Guthrie’s residence for security purposes going forward."

"Members of the media and the public are reminded that all traffic laws and private property laws must be followed. No trespassing is allowed on Nancy Guthrie’s property," the spokesperson added.

The sheriff's department replaced private security guards who were previously hired to monitor Nancy's Tucson, Ariz., home.
...

https://people.com/savannah-guthrie...hat at the request,Savannah Guthrie/Instagram


all imo

 

[SMK777]

After going back and reading more, it sounds like there is a low likelihood that the partial DNA is even related to the perp. imo

I don’t believe DNA is going to be of much use in this case. moo

They definitely are in need of a huge break in this case

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026355925410566652

Agreed.
I think the only way it's going to be solved is by:

1. someone ratting out an associate (such as in the Pamela Smart case, where a pizzaria worker made an anonymous call to LE stating that she'd overheard a fellow worker who was a minor, saying she knew PS and that the crime had been planned in advance by her)

2. And that leading to an arrest and interrogation, and subsequently to the disclosure of NG's whereabouts.

I believe that's the best and only hope, and that DNA and tech will not play a part at all.

 

[Katrinepa]

I believe everything you write here makes a lot of sense and is the simplest, most plausible scenario. I might argue on a few details but idea is the same. So a question @Marie A… if everything was so professional and well executed, what went wrong? If the motive were the ransom? IYO? Thanks!

Many experts, LE say the ransom notes are most likely not from the kidnapper. No proof of life from any note sender, and usually, ransom notes are either left at the scene, or sent quickly, to the family. As far as we know, none were sent to the family, but to TMZ, and days later, no proof of life. Experience/statistics matters here. OTOH, anything is possible.

 

[SMK777]

I’m assuming by now they have released the infamous Range Rover?

Last I heard [article posted upthread] it was still in possession of LE.

 

[Marie A]

I believe everything you write here makes a lot of sense and is the simplest, most plausible scenario. I might argue on a few details but idea is the same. So a question @Marie A… if everything was so professional and well executed, what went wrong? If the motive were the ransom? IYO? Thanks!

Thanks for your positive feedback @MrsEmmaPeel
IMHO the kidnappers were sophisticated enough not to be led astray to negotiate a lower bounty.
They purposefully left NO WAY to contact them for negotiations- which would have opened up the possibility of them being caught.
They clearly stated in their original note that this would be their only communication.
The family (Savannah) determined that without proof of life and without a way to contact the kidnapper, they didn’t want to pay the six million dollars. They were certainly advised not to pay for several valid reasons.
The second note could well have been legitimate too- reiterating their original demands and terms- possibly offering verbal proof of life. Again, no way to contact them.
What went wrong - not exactly sure what you mean but here is some thoughts:
1) blood on the porch and possibly in the house left doubt as to Nancy’s well being
2) medications left on scene and not mentioned in the note(s) left doubt as to Nancy’s well being
3) six million dollars was too precious a number to ask for- Savannah may have paid up to a million dollars with no way to contact/ negotiate but six million was too risky to pay

Editing to answer three other posters with questions
1) plant material- likely grabbed after a light went on/ maybe camera appeared dead before
2) IMHO my own hypothesis regarding non native English speaker writing the note
3) things aren’t always black and white- this is still a sophisticated kidnapping in my opinion in many ways- proof of life may well have been given in second note. Note contents weren’t publicly disclosed.

 

[cherryleaf]

I’m not sure what to think anymore. I believe this was preplanned, but not sure of the motive. Besides Nancy being removed from her house, it doesn’t sound like a burglary gone wrong, nothing is missing, that we know about. Whoever is involved, they don’t mind seeing the pain the family is suffering. Someone knows who is responsible and they need to make the call to LE. Maybe the perp is no longer alive, due to their own actions. But then again, I think they’re still alive and love the publicity they’re receiving.

I agree that it wasn’t an attempted robbery. I do think initially the perp enjoyed the attention in the beginning. However, IMO, given the perps level of attempted concealment and removing/destroying the cameras, etc I imagine if they’ve seen the videos and images of themselves that they caused the perp a high amount of stress, especially the first few days. He wasn’t expecting those images and videos of himself to be found, much less be seen by the world. I imagine he’s even watched what’s been released many times, looking for any possible mistake that may reveal his identity and at the same time secretly admiring himself. MOO