AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[SMK777]

What is your gut telling you in this case?

That someone is going to talk soon; and that the truth will be simple and fit in with Occam's razor theory.

 

[VeronicaVaughn]

With all due respect, there are LOTS of old ladies who themselves or their children that have "money to pay". SG is relatively small potatoes. Yes, SG has money.....so do a lot of famous people. SG's relative worth in the scheme of high profile people is just not that astounding and TBH, she, herself, is just not that much of a stand out celebrity to the masses, IMO. She's not Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, etc. She is seemingly a sweet, smiling, personable girl next door with a national audience who can be seen daily on NBC. and enters our homes via her program. She has discussed her life and family on the Today show and comes across as "approachable".

Ya want access to her? You want her attention? The path is through her mother. I was taught to never count other people's money. The ransom notes may have been real but that was not the primary motivation. It was a distraction, 1930's movie style. JMO

I totally understand your thought process here. The one question I have is, do you think the person (or persons?) knew NG or SG? I ask because I feel Iike it could have been someone who had a run-in with either or both, but not by the way of working at/in NG's house. I don't really have anything to back that up. It's just a gut feeling.

 

[Cassie P]

Does anyone else feel like the answer is right there in front of us? There's been so many good theories and discussions on this forum. One of them has to be right. It feels like when the pieces finally fall into place it's going to be so obvious.

I remember when the Idaho murders first hit the news. I noticed how exceptionally pretty the female victims were and my first thought was, "the killer's gonna be some loser incel mad because he can't get a girl like them." And lo and behold, it basically ended up that way.

In science, it is called parsimony. The best research theory is the one that is the most simple and explains all the data. It requires the least amount of variables and assumptions. Of course sometimes things are more complicated.

Edit to add: I think many here are thinking that there was a complication of some sort with this crime. Perhaps something went wrong and unexpected. So we would still be looking for parsimony but with a wrinkle to it, something unintended? Just a thought.

 

[SaraSmile]

RSBM
Yup. That's why I also suspect perp and NG are in his car or van at the bottom of a lake (I named several nearby ^^^) or the bottom of a cliff off a mountain side (I named nearby mountains ^^^).

IMO, that ties to what a former FBI specialist said on CNN several days ago - that the perp may have taken his life in the face of all the public and LE attention.

IMO, the perp may have committed M-S on 2/1 as some sort of deranged punishment for SG ignoring his interest in her (aka @Napoli's theories), or perhaps after NG passed away on his watch after he abducted her and there was no payout made, he was desperate for an escape hatch.

IOW, I think the lack of public response and lack of LE leads is because only the perp knows what he did and where he is - an incel type with no criminal record, no friends, and no family who care about him - dead, never to be found, along with NG.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do. My heart aches for the horror NG and her family have been through. May they find peace.

Very good post, I’m thinking ( sorry) NG is down a cliff nearby, about 5-10 miles away. Or desert is another place, In thick brush.

I know there were 400 LE at one time, and they likely didn’t show all that they were doing, but their searches seemed to be very close, within 2 miles of NG’s home. Also, what I saw( no shade on LE, I stand with them), the officers were not trained to be very thorough in desert terrain. They weren’t looking behind and under large clumps of cacti, brush, seemed to walk clear of it.

I hope the Cajon Navy will head a bit out of town, dirt roads with big drop offs, cliffs, mountain area, or out further into desert. Maybe, in water, if any nearby.

Searching Mothers, Madress buscadores, are very good, should be encouraged, taken out to lunch. I can’t believe the sheriff wanted them to leave. They know what to do if a body or evidence is found. They could do close in search. They are used to desert terrain.

No shade on anyone looking, I know it’s a vast area to search, hot, and very tough terrain.
This is all just my sleuthing from afar, I could be wrong about what has already been done.

JMO

 

[girlhasnoname]

After going back and reading more, it sounds like there is a low likelihood that the partial DNA is even related to the perp. imo

I don’t believe DNA is going to be of much use in this case. moo

They definitely are in need of a huge break

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026355925410566652

I hope against hope for a big break daily. Prayers for Nancy and the entire Guthrie family. The clip from SG really tore my heart out. They are all suffering so terribly it's made it hard for me to post without seeming cruel.

This perpetrator video clip still terrifies me, poor dear Nancy.

I can't help but think this was done for 'maximum scary effect' while disengaging the Nest camera in order to get her out of the front door? I think he got in another way. I have guessed his age around 25-35ish, he's displaying a weird type of swagger IMO.

I also wonder if he had already been inside the home at this point? Maybe that's why his backpack is full.

JMO

 

[VegasGirl35]

In science, it is called parsimony. The best research theory is the one that is the most simple and explains all the data. It requires the least amount of variables and assumptions. Of course sometimes things are more complicated.

Thank you, I learn something new every day!

That someone is going to talk soon; and that the truth will be simple and fit in with Occam's razor theory.

Agreed. People who hurt an elderly woman can't be counted on to have a crisis of conscience where they'll do the right thing. The only remaining solution is to appeal to their greed. Like I said previously, 100k was never going to be enough to tip the scales, but a million just might do it.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

That it's somebody connected to Nancy. Either a worker who spent time at the property or a relative of a neighbor/acquaintance. The people who directly knew Nancy may not even have intentionally set her up. I could see a roofer shooting the breeze with friends after work, telling them they were at the house of someone with a famous daughter. It wouldn't take much to get the wheels turning.

What I can’t connect is a roofer with bitcoin savvy. At least no roofer I’ve known. (Metaphorically speaking.)

 

[ab01]

I hope against hope for a big break daily. Prayers for Nancy and the entire Guthrie family. The clip from SG really tore my heart out. They are all suffering so terribly it's made it hard for me to post without seeming cruel.

This perpetrator video clip still terrifies me, poor dear Nancy.

I can't help but think this was done for 'maximum scary effect' while disengaging the Nest camera in order to get her out of the front door? I think he got in another way. I have guessed his age around 25-35ish, he's displaying a weird type of swagger IMO.

I also wonder if he had already been inside the home at this point? Maybe that's why his backpack is full.

JMO

I’m wondering if there were things taken out of the safe and then the safe relocked?

I know initial reports were nothing of significance missing.

But could that have been the significance of the video we saw of investigators bringing a locksmith in?

Maybe the “we got it” quote that was heard the gentleman say to LE on one of the reporters videos was him saying we got the safe unlocked?

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

I hope against hope for a big break daily. Prayers for Nancy and the entire Guthrie family. The clip from SG really tore my heart out. They are all suffering so terribly it's made it hard for me to post without seeming cruel.

This perpetrator video clip still terrifies me, poor dear Nancy.

I can't help but think this was done for 'maximum scary effect' while disengaging the Nest camera in order to get her out of the front door? I think he got in another way. I have guessed his age around 25-35ish, he's displaying a weird type of swagger IMO.

I also wonder if he had already been inside the home at this point? Maybe that's why his backpack is full.

JMO

I've thought for a while that the perp or an accomplice was already hiding out in NG's home that night. He/They knew that NG was out for the evening and broke in (or let themselves in) through the sliding door in the back of the house.

Since we can't be with the Guthrie siblings to offer comfort and support, I hope everyone hear remembers the family daily in their thoughts and prayers. SG has repeatedly asked for the public's prayers, and I know that the family appreciates it.

 

[FaviousM]

So I went to write out what my current theory is and quickly realised I wasn't really sure. So below is more my thought process than anything. All just opinion of course

I believe the ransom demands are not the from the person who abducted NG. From what we know, they were too vague and they gave up too easily IMO but this is more a gut feeling than anything else.

Now this bit is very much just my opinion but the ransom emails/letters may be from some member of LE that had inside info on the case or even someone related to the family that decided to try and take advantage of the situation, essentially someone who had access to enough info to make the demand not be outright dismissed but otherwise has no connection to the crime itself. Could even just be some random person making educated guesses that made it seem at least a little plausible

So if the ransom demand turns out not to be from the perp, then what actually happened?

• Burglary gone wrong? As far as we're aware nothing of value (aside from NG) was taken, why take NG but not take the valuables
• A vendetta against SG? Then I'd expect additional "taunting" by some means, especially with TMZ being so open about being contacted about the case
• Targeted at random? There are no reports from other neighbours of prowling and NG's house is hardly the easiest to access or the fanciest house in the neighbourhood
• Still a kidnapping for ransom that went wrong but the perp has stayed silent? Plausible but extremely rare in the US, the cartel angle is even less likely IMO they'd at least be "professional" about the ransom demands
• Life Insurance/Inheritance? This was my early theory but LE has been pretty clear that family are not involved and I'd imagine removing NG from the scene would work against this goal
• Stalker/Obsessive? This is where I end up by a process of elimination. It wouldn't be my first thought but its the option that has the least negatives against it in my mind, given the information that's been made public.

Am I missing any main angles?

 

[girlhasnoname]

With all due respect, there are LOTS of old ladies who themselves or their children that have "money to pay". SG is relatively small potatoes. Yes, SG has money.....so do a lot of famous people. SG's relative worth in the scheme of high profile people is just not that astounding and TBH, she, herself, is just not that much of a stand out celebrity to the masses, IMO. She's not Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, etc. She is seemingly a sweet, smiling, personable girl next door with a national audience who can be seen daily on NBC. and enters our homes via her program. She has discussed her life and family on the Today show and comes across as "approachable".

Ya want access to her? You want her attention? The path is through her mother. I was taught to never count other people's money. The ransom notes may have been real but that was not the primary motivation. It was a distraction, 1930's movie style. JMO

Yes, Nancy and SG had done that TV segment which showed them both in and around the area around November IIRC. Nancy would have been so easily accessible and vulnerable as we have learned.

A deranged mind, local to the area, might think of terrible things from robbery, kidnapping to SA.

JMO

 

[SaraSmile]

That's assuming NG was targeted for ransom and not some other reason

I think she was targeted, but the perp just wanted NG gone for some reason.

I agree the person may have been to NG’s house for home maintenance, NG saw something she shouldn’t have( maybe NG didn’t even realize), maybe drugs. Or overheard something.

Perp got paranoid, afraid NG would talk, ( but why take body? Afraid of DNA?)

Ransom was just separate opportunists.

I agree the motivation is important to finding the perp.

JMO

 

[Chypre]

My semi-daily theory has changed again. No longer believe it was connected to a ransom. Not to family. Not directed by someone. Not a robbery. Not to punish SG.

How about "just because?" Maybe a mentally deranged person who wanted to get away with an abduction or murder? Hard to fandom a criminal mind, an amoral person, but they exist. And, with many outsiders in town for the "shows" his presence would not have raised concern.

This person did not suddenly become a prowler because of SG. Whomever, the person was likely a peeping tom early on.

 

[FaviousM]

I think she was targeted, but the perp just wanted NG gone for some reason.

I agree the person may have been to NG’s house for home maintenance, NG saw something she shouldn’t have( maybe NG didn’t even realize), maybe drugs. Or overheard something.

Perp got paranoid, afraid NG would talk, ( but why take body? Afraid of DNA?)

Ransom was just separate opportunists.

I agree the motivation is important to finding the perp.

JMO

I had a weird idea when typing up another post trying to get to "my theory".

I vaguely remember something being mentioned about NG only recently joining that online church group. Did she recently stop attending physical church? Maybe some deranged person she met there thought she abandoned them or something like that?

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

Thanks @Marie A. Good answers imo, and as sophisticated as a criminal may be nothing is perfect and human beings don’t always act according to plan. That’s why adaptibility (grabbing lantana) to me is a mark of intelligence. JMOO

My only disagreement is that the gang may be shooting above their heads. That they are not as smart as they think. ie They’re more gamers than criminal minds. Young, maybe drug users, and treating it like a caper. JMOO

As to why NG? A kidnapper has to know that a ransom will be paid — that a family cares enough and that they have the means. NG and SG fit that bill just by their public display of closeness. And SG has the means. Six million would have been doable if conditions were met.

 

[Lamima]

I still think it was someone with a beef, an injustice collector. Someone who NG and/or the other daughter complained about or gave bad reviews or posted on social media about. Probably wasn't recently either. Maybe 3 years ago. Could be a mechanic who bungled her car repair or an EMT who came to the house for a medical situation and messed up somehow or a pool company who resurfaced the pool badly or a hair stylist who messed up her hair or a server at a restaurant who gave bad service or....so many things. Could be they saw such a person doing something they shouldn't and reported him and got him fired. But I think this is someone who has been stewing for a long time and blaming one or more of the G family for their crappy life. And doing this was punishment. JMOO.

 

[Love Never Fails]

I think it depends on motive. If it was truly a kidnapping for ransom, then Savannah factors in because she's the only family member with that kind of money to pay. If it was a serial killer looking for vulnerable prey, Nancy was an easy target.

I was thinking of the motive last night. I thought of ransom at first, then revenge, then SA and finally it came to me it could have been a serial killer. I wonder how many are in the Tucson area?

But what serial killer would abduct the victim from the home with no one there on a dark night? That’s a lot of trouble if they just wanted to kill. I mean she wasn’t picked up off tre street. But it could be I guess.

And we don’t personally know if CH or A are wealthy. Investments can make you very wealthy. It’s not that hard to make $1M now.

So I think it’s revenge. But why?

 

[britinsussex]

With all due respect, there are LOTS of old ladies who themselves or their children that have "money to pay". SG is relatively small potatoes. Yes, SG has money.....so do a lot of famous people. SG's relative worth in the scheme of high profile people is just not that astounding and TBH, she, herself, is just not that much of a stand out celebrity to the masses, IMO. She's not Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, etc. She is seemingly a sweet, smiling, personable girl next door with a national audience who can be seen daily on NBC. and enters our homes via her program. She has discussed her life and family on the Today show and comes across as "approachable".

Ya want access to her? You want her attention? The path is through her mother. I was taught to never count other people's money. The ransom notes may have been real but that was not the primary motivation. It was a distraction, 1930's movie style. JMO

Taylor Swift reportedly has 25 bodyguards at all times. Several are former FBI agents. When she is at one of her homes, guards work in shifts to patrol the property. When she is in public, they blend right in with the public. She pays over 3 million a year for security! Her parents also have security. Personally, this gives me anxiety just thinking of living like this.

 

[SaraSmile]

Yes, Nancy and SG had done that TV segment which showed them both in and around the area around November IIRC. Nancy would have been so easily accessible and vulnerable as we have learned.

A deranged mind, local to the area, might think of terrible things from robbery, kidnapping to SA.

JMO

You are right that whole series in Tucson really spotlighted NG and SG in Tucson!
Some local thugs may have dreamed up an idea. JMO

 

[girlhasnoname]

I had a weird idea when typing up another post trying to get to "my theory".

I vaguely remember something being mentioned about NG only recently joining that online church group. Did she recently stop attending physical church? Maybe some deranged person she met there thought she abandoned them or something like that?

I believe Nancy and a group of ladies started gathering together at someone's home to watch the streaming service from SG's church in NY during Covid.