AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[FaviousM]

I believe Nancy and a group of ladies started gathering together at someone's home to watch the streaming service from SG's church in NY during Covid.

Ah so not as recent as I had thought

 

[girlhasnoname]

Taylor Swift reportedly has 25 bodyguards at all times. Several are former FBI agents. When she is at one of her homes, guards work in shifts to patrol the property. When she is in public, they blend right in with the public. She pays over 3 million a year for security! Her parents also have security. Personally, this gives me anxiety just thinking of living like this.

I could never live that way (TS), not for any amount of money.

Nancy seemed like a genuine, gentle, loving mother who just happened to have one daughter who has some level of media exposure. Not slighting SG, she's very smart and good at her job IMO.

 

[Derdew]

Long time reader, but I had to register to share some theories I haven’t seen much here or anywhere else online.

These deal with two main issues: cameras and the timeline (40+ minutes). IMO major possibilities are being overlooked in both cases. When something doesn’t make sense, that usually means we just haven’t found the right explanation yet. IMO the explanation I will offer below makes a lot of seemingly confusing data points fit perfectly.

This is all just my opinion based on things we have heard.

Topic #1: Cameras

First, cameras: IMO this guy WANTED to be seen. In fact, it was a key part of his strategy. Both times, but especially the first time he showed up. As someone who has these types of cameras as part of my home security system and understands them extremely well, it actually makes perfect sense that he would want to trigger them AND appear in the image.

Think of a camera as an early warning system as much as it is a camera. Some people silence them all night and rely on them to provide retroactive evidence of a crime. Others want the alerts to wake them up so they have early warning of danger. Some do both. That makes all the difference in this crime.

One of the underappreciated aspects of Blink, Nest, Ring, and the like is that in addition to being cameras and microphones, they also act as perimeter annunciators. What I mean by that is that it is practically impossible to disable them without first triggering them, which sends an immediate alert to someone’s phone (sometimes multiple people’s phones, depending on the setup). You can rip the camera off the wall and destroy it but it’s already too late: it has served its purpose and alerted the owner, who is possibly now awake and taking any number of actions. The criminal’s element of surprise is gone and their presence is known. That is, unless the homeowner silences alerts at night and just checks in the morning (as most people do because they don’t want to wake up every time a cat walks across their porch in the middle of the night).

In this scenario, he didn’t care about being filmed per se. He’s well disguised anyway and likely assumes he will be filmed somewhere by a camera he missed. IMO his concern was 100% about whether the alerts would wake Nancy up before he got inside and spoil his plan.

He needed the element of surprise. An 84 year old woman is definitely going to dial 911 if she is awakened by a break- in in progress. Even if he gets her out before police arrive, the police are now aware of a break-in/kidnapping in progress and will be swarming the entire neighborhood. The criminal might even drive past a responding officer, who will afterwards recall seeing the vehicle leaving the neighborhood as they responded. They might even call it in and have another officer stop that vehicle in case it is the perp. Risk goes way, way up if Nancy wakes up at any point before he gets inside and can stop her from calling 911.

Let’s assume this new timeline of photos is correct: he was there beforehand, likely an earlier date. I have thought since the photos first emerged that they must have been taken on different nights. Most people have focused on the shoes, lack of backpack, lack of holster… but the first thing I noticed was the distinct lack of a shadow (his shadow is clearly visible on the night he wore the backpack and holster, but absent in the photo where he is not wearing them).

This suggests a pitch black night in the earlier timeframe photo, perfect for recon. He wears his same gear that he’ll wear later because he is doing a dry run and wants it to feel as much like the real thing as possible, and he also does not want to be identified. He also wants to appear as menacing as possible for the camera as mentioned above.

He has to know what to expect, if anything, when the camera is triggered. And he would understand that triggering it is unavoidable.

Even if the criminal has a wifi jammer most systems will then alert the owner that all the modules are down. So they’re now awake at a minimum and likely to notice sounds outside or even to look out the windows to investigate, because that is suspicious.

These alerts could very well be loud and wake the person up. The person might then turn lights on in the house, go to live view to see what is going on, or dial 911 or text a family member depending on the circumstances. Or grab a firearm that they have for protection. Maybe all of the above. The criminal has no idea what is going on, if anything at all. Almost all of these systems will send an immediate thumbnail before recording so that even if the camera is disabled before the video is uploaded to the cloud you have an image of whatever set it off on your phone.

IMO this guy is almost posing for the camera on the earlier date. He needs to find out: what happens if the camera alerts AND the image in the thumbnail or on the phone is of a terrifying man in a mask and gloves? Notice he stands far enough away that you can see he looks terrifying but can’t make out much in terms of ID. It’s no good if it alerts and the image is some strange blur or nothing at all, because those of us who have these cameras see that stuff all the time. Cats, rabbits, the wind.. All cause triggers. You’re not raising the alarm so to speak, for every single time it notifies you of motion.

He needs the person inside to see a central casting bad guy so that they will react however they are going to react. That reaction will then be taken into account in whatever plans he has for the actual night of the kidnapping. Thus the need for a 2-part plan.

Now imagine you are 84. Your phone alerts and wakes you up in the middle of the night. You see THAT on your screen. You are almost certainly going to react. You likely dial 911. You turn on lights in the house because you are definitely not going to want to sit in the dark until cops come. You text or call family or neighbors for help right after 911. In short, ruckus ensues.

Or maybe your family also gets the alerts. It’s not yet 2AM on a Saturday. It’s not impossible that someone else also gets the alert who is actually still awake, watching TV, playing video games, whatever. They see that nightmare on grandma’s front door, or mom’s front door. Obviously action will be taken of some type.

So he poses to ensure that he has triggered the camera, then quickly retreats down the street into the brush somewhere to hide. Do lights come on? Do police arrive? Does a dog bark? Is there any activity at all?

Hmm, nothing. Nothing happens at all he notices. So he slinks away into the darkness, confident that the cameras are no real threat. The biggest threat of the cameras is that they wake Nancy up before he can get inside, meaning 911 is called.

So he waits a couple weeks and watches off and on. Are more visible security measures taken? Do new cameras appear?

Now, here’s the thing: he is likely feeling better in terms of not alerting anyone inside based on previous recon. But that could be a one-off. Maybe she silenced her phone that night but not this one. So he needs a quick repeat on the night of.

This is where the timeline comes in.

Topic #2: Timeline on the Night of the Kidnapping

I do not believe at all that he was inside the house for 40+ minutes as we keep hearing almost everywhere. That makes zero sense for a kidnapping, where every moment spent at the scene in contact with the victim= increased risk.

In this scenario I have described he returns a couple of weeks later, fairly confident that the cameras pose no real threat. He likely now assumes Nancy has her phone on silent so that every time a cat or other animal walks by at night she doesn’t wake up.

However, he has to make sure, just in case she woke up the next morning (from the earlier recon) and saw that image and NOW takes more security steps, such as having her alerts on loud enough to wake her up. Maybe a neighbor or someone else is also now getting them as a backup. He doesn’t know, so he goes up to the porch, knowing the camera will activate. Of course he ducks his head just in case (why over expose himself to being filmed?).

This is a test… What will happen?

The lantana also serves a purpose: it looks even more scary/wrong. If anyone is seeing someone do that they are raising the alarm 100% for sure. It escalates from a simple prowler on the porch to likely intent to cause harm.

But nothing happens. He slinks to the shadows again and waits. No lights come on. No cops show up. This could account for a solid 15-20 minutes of that 40 minute timeline we keep hearing about. Again, there is no real rush here. If he is detected he will escape into the pitch black and brush unseen. If he is not detected then it’s like he just arrived. It’s likely he has a getaway driver close by but not so close that if police suddenly come flying down the street his car isn’t sitting there parked suspiciously. It’s not like he can hop into a car and take off 2 houses down at 2:30 AM or so when the police are responding to a suspicious man trying to break into a house.

We have also heard about a second motion detection after 2, about 15 minutes or so before Nancy’s pacemaker disconnected from her watch. This could be the kidnapper(s) proceeding to gain entry into the house, meaning they would have only been inside for 10 minutes or less in total, which makes a lot more sense. One restrains her while the other goes and gets the car OR signals the getaway driver that it’s time, which obviously would not be in the driveway to begin with in case their camera test resulted in their presence being detected. So that takes a few minutes, as does getting her into the car, situated, and leaving.

If you take all that into account, we could be talking 5-10 minutes or even less in the house in total. If they were there for 40 minutes they would have cleaned up all the blood drops. Instead, IMO, they got in as quietly as possible after making sure the cameras didn’t wake anyone up, and got her out as quickly as possible, because who knows what little hidden cameras or security items they could miss. Kidnappers act fast. They don’t stick around the scene any longer than needed once the crime is in motion.

Just my theory, but I think it explains this person’s actions. Far from being a bumbling amateur, this was IMO a clever test to see what alerts, if any, would result from the camera before proceeding into the house.

Best theory I have seen yet to explain backpk guy

 

[acutename]

What I can’t connect is a roofer with bitcoin savvy. At least no roofer I’ve known. (Metaphorically speaking.)

A roofer who wants bitcoins AND who watches The Today Show. That should narrow down the field.

 

[SaraSmile]

I believe Nancy and a group of ladies started gathering together at someone's home to watch the streaming service from SG's church in NY during Covid.

Yes, I thought of that, too. Church group, NG watched services at friend’s home.
Possible perp, Maybe a tough grandson or one of grandson’s friends, just brainstorming.

JMO

 

[Donswife48]

Apparently, the LE still has the Range Rover in their custody. Why do you think they won't release it? MOO

 

[Cloudydiamond]

I had a weird idea when typing up another post trying to get to "my theory".

I vaguely remember something being mentioned about NG only recently joining that online church group. Did she recently stop attending physical church? Maybe some deranged person she met there thought she abandoned them or something like that?

She stopped going to church physically after covid.

Nancy Guthrie was expected at friend’s home, not church on day she vanished: source

Family source corrects timeline reports about Nancy Guthrie's disappearance. Missing woman wasn't scheduled for Tucson church but weekly livestream.

www.yahoo.com

 

[FaviousM]

Apparently, the LE still has the Range Rover in their custody. Why do you think they won't release it? MOO

Could still be waiting on some sort of DNA analysis and don't want to release it in case they need to re-process? JMO

 

[Charlot123]

I think she was targeted, but the perp just wanted NG gone for some reason.

I agree the person may have been to NG’s house for home maintenance, NG saw something she shouldn’t have( maybe NG didn’t even realize), maybe drugs. Or overheard something.

Perp got paranoid, afraid NG would talk, ( but why take body? Afraid of DNA?)

Ransom was just separate opportunists.

I agree the motivation is important to finding the perp.

JMO

Another version: SG was definitely a local celebrity and what's more important, a self-made woman.

I imagine a local critical mom (or dad), unhappy with own ill-achieving son, mentioning SG as the example of "a good daughter, and such a good student, and a self-achiever. I should have had the child like her, not like you".

And when it got known that SG was covering the Olympics, it would have turned into double criticism. "She had nothing going for her: no family money, no help, no connections. And yet she never brought home a B, and now look at yourself..."

For someone hearing it all for a long time, the Olympics could be the last drop in the bucket.

Or else, indeed, someone working at Nancy's small home project, and Nancy finding fault with it, and quarreling with the wrong person.

 

[VicBlazey]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026694426882617735

 

[acutename]

Apparently, the LE still has the Range Rover in their custody. Why do you think they won't release it? MOO

maybe more DNA tests and they want the full title? Wasn't it sold and resold very recently?
maybe it went to the car wash and got detailed like Kohburger's car and the car (Jeep) that Fotis Dulos borrowed from his employee? Maybe the car wash is chock full of criminals. (sorry getting sarcastic, but...)

 

[Charlot123]

I still think it was someone with a beef, an injustice collector. Someone who NG and/or the other daughter complained about or gave bad reviews or posted on social media about. Probably wasn't recently either. Maybe 3 years ago. Could be a mechanic who bungled her car repair or an EMT who came to the house for a medical situation and messed up somehow or a pool company who resurfaced the pool badly or a hair stylist who messed up her hair or a server at a restaurant who gave bad service or....so many things. Could be they saw such a person doing something they shouldn't and reported him and got him fired. But I think this is someone who has been stewing for a long time and blaming one or more of the G family for their crappy life. And doing this was punishment. JMOO.

An handyman, or a plumber, on some substances, with a prior history of getting angry when criticized? Very likely, and such a scenario is well-known.

 

[factseeking]

Does anyone know if the friends and relatives of people who worked at NG's home have been looked at? I know they haven't said they've cleared the people who worked for her yet (unless I missed it) but I've seen cases where it's not the actual person who worked for the victim but some friend or relative that was familiar with the victim because the worker talked about them. I'm pretty sure we discussed this possibility in this thread early on but I've not heard anything recently so not sure if that possibility was ruled out.

 

[Cloudydiamond]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026694426882617735

Mil dollar tip?

 

[No it's not]

Sometimes things are not as what they appear to be. If the subject from the video aka “Lantana Man” really showed up at an unknown date prior to Saturday, January 31st, he had a very specific reason IMO to stand in front of NG’s front entry caught on the Nest cam that night!

He did not come to scout out the house, because he is a local (?) and he possibly knows NG, her routines, her house. I think he came to see whether or not the cam would record him and whether NG had subscription, or would the recording just not show the next day. How would he know? Easy. As a friend/neighbor/laborer he would just ask NG the next day whether she also had a recording of a strange man on her cam like a few other locals had! He may get even more infor out of her that way. “No, I don’t have a subscription/ did not get any notifications/don’t check the cam that often”etc. MOO

More to follow

ALL IMO

-Nin

As we saw in BE’s last video - great watch! - posted earlier, the area around NG is very quiet and considered safe. Just not much going on, as the former SWAT Commander is pointing out in the video.

So, how can the dynamic change from one day to another? What happened? IMO someone emerged. Someone changed the dynamic of the community. Who?

Did someone travel to Tucson AZ, to the Catalina Foothills, to commit a crime (abducting/kidnapping extortion etc.)? A crime involving NG targeting SG, well planned in advance?

Or did someone local ( Tucson area) plan on committing a crime against NG (personal reasons) or against SG (personal reason or extortion)? The local would be more familiar with the surroundings and with the dynamics of the neighborhood and Tucson.

Or did someone living nearby, a young individual perhaps, plan on committing their (first?) crime (personal motive, SA, SG etc) involving a more convenient crime location and an easy victim thus known to them. No car needed, familiarity with the surroundings and familiar with the victim’s routine.They fit in.

I am focusing on the third option right now. It seems to offer more answers than questions IMO.

So what happened that night? I can see an inexperienced (first offender?) planning a crime (SA? Control his victim etc.)He appeared earlier to either figure out the cam (days earlier) or to see whether his appearance (a day before the crime) triggered a notification, an alarm etc. He is waiting to see whether police or family is going to show up. His next approach focuses on the cam. He is trying to either cover it or to remove it, as he does not know yet how much time he will be spending with his victim inside the house. However, his bulky hands (not well planned out) do not allow him to accomplish the task.

He gains entry through the back of the house (slider?) and locates NG. Whatever happens next, it is very possible, that NG rips his face mask off and possibly recognizes the subject. Now there is a problem. In however state NG was at that point, the subject decided to remove her/ hurts her etc..He either left and came back to remove her, or he managed to take her with him after getting his car.

Sad.

ALL IMO

-Nin

 

[VicBlazey]

Mil dollar tip?

Let's hope so! Fingers crossed that someone has been motivated by the money to speak..

 

[ab01]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026694426882617735

appears to also be some kind of work truck as well.

Probably has to do with securing the property and stopping trespassers, maybe changing locks, replacing cameras etc. We saw signs go up yesterday. moo

 

[factseeking]

maybe more DNA tests and they want the full title? Wasn't it sold and resold very recently?
maybe it went to the car wash and got detailed like Kohburger's car and the car (Jeep) that Fotis Dulos borrowed from his employee? Maybe the car wash is chock full of criminals. (sorry getting sarcastic, but...)

I was wondering about this angle as well because we did hear something about it being sold/resold recently.

 

[SMK777]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026694426882617735

Hopefully it is something significant.

 

[rebel123]

Apparently Law Enforcement has had 750 calls since the $1m reward was announced by SG. That's from AOL.