AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Katrinepa]

Your observations add to my comment number 36185 on page 1810, shown below with some additions shown in italics.

The odd behavior of the front porch intruder can be explained by assuming that a change had to be made to the kidnapper’s original plan to exit the house by the same path used to enter the house; namely, by the back door. The following paragraphs explain this further.

The first figure shows the first frame of video from the front door camera that shows the intruder approaching the front porch. Notice that the intruder is stepping onto the front walk from a position to the left, and not from the right or from straight ahead. Therefore, it is unlikely that he came up the front walk steps where the hand rail is located. So, where could he be coming from? The answer can be found by looking at the second figure, which shows an aerial view of the front of the house. This view shows the intruder’s position with a red rectangle. It is immediately in front of a white circular stepping stone that can be seen in both the door camera video and the aerial view of the house. Now, this position is approached most easily by a clear path to the corner of the house as shown by the red dots in the aerial view. It is unlikely that the intruder entered this path from any point short of the corner of the house because he would have had to climb over a two-foot high pile of rocks to reach the path as shown in the third figure – something not impossible, but a hassle that one would have preferred to avoid especially at night. Therefore, it appears that the intruder came to the front door from a point beyond the corner of the house. This point was most likely the point of entry into the house, which we are told by authorities was the door to the back porch because they found this door wide open when they arrived after the kidnapping. If this is the case, then most likely the intruder came from inside the house before he approached the front door.
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Now, let’s assume that that the original plan was to for the kidnapper(s) to exit the house by walking out the back door with their victim walking beside them to their vehicle located somewhere down the street. This would have been their safest option to avoid other cameras. And parking the vehicle on the street would have made it easier for a fast getaway than parking in the driveway, where they could have been blocked in. Unfortunately, while they were inside the house it became apparent to them that it was impossible for Nancy to walk to the vehicle where it was, either because Nancy told them she couldn’t walk that far or because they could see for themselves that she couldn’t walk that far (they could have spotted the walker she used inside the house). Therefore, they were forced to make a change in their exit plan and to bring the vehicle closer to the house so Nancy wouldn’t have to walk as far. The front door was decided to be the best option for doing this.

Therefore, while one of the kidnappers remained with Nancy to ensure that she didn’t call the police, the other kidnapper exited out the back door to get the vehicle. While on his way to get the vehicle, he remembered that there was a front door camera that could see the vehicle approach the front of the house, watch them enter the vehicle, and make their getaway. He knew this camera existed because of his reconnaissance of the house a few weeks earlier, when he was spotted unknowingly by the front door camera. Therefore, he had to either cover up the camera or remove it entirely before bringing the vehicle to the house. So, he went directly from the back porch to the front porch to disable the camera.

One can see on the camera video that he knew the camera existed because he held his head down while approaching the camera from the side. When he was unable to remove camera easily, he decided to temporarily cover it up with something so that it could not see the vehicle, assuming he could find a tool later in the vehicle or in the house that would help him remove the camera while they were exiting through the front door. So, he decided to use some nearby vegetation to disable the camera. While covering it with vegetation appears to most people to be a sign of gross incompetence, it actually served his purpose quite well because the camera was unable to see him later bring the vehicle to the front steps, get out, and approach the camera once more to remove it, either by approaching it from outside the house or from the inside. Then, after the camera was removed, no one could see them take Nancy down the front walk, put her in the vehicle, and then leave in the vehicle. And we know that they exited this way because of the blood on the front porch that wasn’t there when the intruder approached the camera the first time.

This sequence of actions also explains the camera alert posted at 2:12 AM, which was definitely from one of the cameras on the guest house because the sheriff said the alert may have been caused by an animal. This means the camera was an outside camera and not an inside camera. One of these cameras looks at the driveway and the garage door while the other looks at the rear yard and patio with its door. This is the rear door that was found to be wide open by the police when they first came to the house after the kidnapping. I believe the alert was caused not by an animal, but by the "porch perp" either going from the inside of the house to get the vehicle after blinding the front camera on the way, or from the vehicle in front of the house after he brought it there to the inside of the house via the rear door (probably the latter, because it is closer to when they exited the front door with Nancy). The front camera would have been removed while taking Nancy out the front door.

So this change of exit plan explains the following:

1) The front door video occurs while leaving the house and not while entering the house.
a. The intruder at the front door was inside the house prior to going to the front door and was likely the driver of the vehicle.
b. This explains the full backpack used by the intruder at the front door. It contains objects taken from inside or outside the house like possibly cameras, and other objects of value, and not just tools for entering the house.
c. It explains why covering the camera with vegetation was an effective action and not a sign of gross incompetence.

2) The intruder on the video at the front door likely had an accomplice.
a. Someone had to guarantee that Nancy would not call the police while the intruder was at the front door.
b. Someone had to guarantee that Nancy would not call the police while someone else disabled cameras and flood lights before exiting the house, which could have caused sounds that Nancy might have heard. (Nancy was hard of hearing and used hearing aids, but the kidnappers likely did not know this ahead of time).
c. The intruder appears to not have full use of his right hand, right elbow, and right leg, making it difficult for him to climb to the roof to remove cameras.
d. If the intruder did not have an accomplice, then he had to ensure that Nancy could not call the police while he was absent by tying her up with tape or cord. But it still would have been risky to leave her alone.

3) It explains the camera alert at 2:12 AM as being caused by the “porch perp” either going from the inside of the house to get the vehicle after blinding the front camera on the way, or from the vehicle in front of the house after he brought it there to the inside of the house via the rear door (probably the latter).

4) Change of exit plan does not depend upon how Nancy entered her house prior to her kidnapping.

5) Change of exit plan does not depend upon how the kidnappers entered the house.
a. Either Nancy left the back door unlocked, or
b. Someone else had left the back door unlocked, or
c. The kidnappers picked the lock on the back door. (There was no forced entry).
d. The kidnappers could have entered the house via a sliding door to the bedroom. In this case they would have still planned to exit via the back door because exiting via the sliding door would have required the victim to climb over a low brick wall. The rear porch did not have a sliding door.

6) The camera removed by the FBI from the roof of the guest house would have seen all entry and exit movements by any intruders via the back door. This camera was overlooked by the kidnappers because it was not on the roof of the main house. At this time only the FBI knows how much of this video data was stored within this camera, stored onsite in the house, or transmitted to the cloud. Perhaps some data was stored. Perhaps none was stored.

It is not known if the kidnappers took anything from the house. They did not take Nancy’s wallet, Apple watch or iPhone. The latter two items can read Nancy’s pacemaker using Bluetooth communications. One source said that they smashed all the security cameras inside the house, which suggests they knew ahead of time where they were or else forced Nancy to tell them where they were. They also removed all the security cameras outside the house except for the two wired security cameras on the guest house they may have overlooked (which required at least a screwdriver). These cameras were probably carried in the backpack seen on the intruder at the front door. No ladder was found outside the house, so access to the roof had to be gained some other way.. They also smashed two flood lights, one at the side of the rear garage people door and one at the corner of the patio away from the door to the house. (Interestingly, no one mentioned seeing any glass on the ground under the smashed flood lights). There was no sign of forced entry anywhere. So how did they know that the back door would be unlocked, or what was their alternative method of entry if the back door was locked? It had to be very quiet in case Nancy heard them and called the police.

Not to add to the pile, and disregard if already mentioned, but years ago, I had a friend whose family was very well off, and one day, when the family was not home, burglars came with a van and took a ton of electronics, jewelry, etc from the house. Come to find out, that her sister told some guy she was dating, and he and his buddies had a field day. Soo, what if one of the 'help' has a friend or family member they told about the home and valuable inside, perhaps left a door unlocked... the robber enters the house, not knowing she'd be there, they get into a scuffle, he kills her, and is diverted from his original intended robbery? Doesn't sound plausible to me, as the backpack looks full of something, and I would think a robber would bring an empty sack/backpack to fill with loot. Just throwing it out there, and can be removed if too far out. Just a possibility?

 

[TIGER0822]

their outfits look sombre to me. Just my opinion.

 

[SRWCF]

The lady with the dark hair could be Maribel Goodman, if the consensus is that they are from the Pima County Attorney's Office.

 

[Katrinepa]

United Cajun Navy begins assisting Arizona volunteers as search continues for Nancy Guthrie

United Cajun Navy begins assisting Arizona volunteers as search continues for Nancy Guthrie

www.wbrz.com

A fantastic group, with much success in other cases. Highly regarded!

 

[aamillaa]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026722570247221607

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026723188986798242

 

[iamshadow21]

Unless it was one of those burying inside basement cement walls type of thing, in which case the body can go undiscovered for years---but there wasn't time or the means for that, presumably.

It's been discussed that there are virtually no basements in houses in the area because of the geology. The caliche is like concrete, and people who want an inground swimming pool often have to resort to blasting.

MOO

 

[GussiedCanoodler]

The lady with the dark hair could be Maribel Goodman, if the consensus is they are from the Pima County Attorney's Office.

I think you’re probably right!

 

[LAhiker]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026720673578823984

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026721361138430355

Maybe they're considering how the kidnapper or kidnappers got in? I've long wondered whether he/they went over the wall into that little enclosed patio and then did something with the sliding door there. In my experience, sliding doors can be hard to secure unless they're shut and locked, and sometimes the locks have problems.

On the other hand, at times I have also thought he/they might've gotten in through the back...

JMO

 

[Sessiebo]

What if they covered her with lime?

They would have found something the first go around i assume. I mean, did they dig a hole in middle of night in her own backyard? I don't believe so. In her own walls? Don't you think her fam would notice such a thing?
What about the blood trail on her porch and driveway?
She is not in that house - JMO

 

[LadyL]

With the violence in the world, there is never a good or perfect way to handle things. On one hand, there is a dire need to find an 84 year old who was abducted and then on the other side there is a child who also becomes a victim or at the very least fearful of law enforcement. I wish we were living in a world of kindness and not so divisive.

how does the 6 year old become fearful of law enforcement? parents sent him to grannies when they saw all the idiots converging on their street

 

[LadyL]

I wonder if these are prosecutors getting a look at the scene in preparation for charges.

let's hope so

 

[aamillaa]

Hmmm…. Maybe attorneys corroborating a confession? MOO

 

[Eli9]

Is SG's offer of 1 million dollars to bring her mother home completely separate from an arrest and conviction of suspect? Her mother is returned, they are eligible for the reward money? MOO

View this content on Instagram

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NOTE: Family reward of up to $1 million will be paid only for recovery of Nancy Guthrie, consistent with FBI criteria for payment of its reward in this case: NANCY GUTHRIE | Federal Bureau of Investigation

FBI Reward: Nancy Guthrie | Federal Bureau of Investigation

The FBI is offering a reward of up to $50,000 for information leading to the recovery of Nancy Guthrie and/or the arrest and conviction of anyone involved in her disappearance.

www.fbi.gov

information leading to the recovery of Nancy Guthrie and/or the arrest and conviction of anyone involved in her disappearance.

 

[Not Funny]

I'm thinking back to the beginning of this crime. The homicide team was called in. To me, there is evidence we don't know about that leads them to believe something horrific happened in the house.

I don't read much into a homicide team being called in initially. This is a quiet area that mostly gets theft/burglary cases, so their homicide team may handle more than just homicide. I think they were called in because the homeowner was missing and there were signs of a struggle.

 

[detectivewannab]

One person we don't see is the sheriff.

 

[warp3dwing]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026722570247221607

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026723188986798242

Huh. Perhaps LE still isn't 100% sure how the suspect entered the home. Maybe they're removing locks for examination by a forensic locksmith. Seems like that'd be one of those things they'd pin down early, but who knows.

 

[NoseyRecluse]

They would have found something the first go around i assume. I mean, did they dig a hole in middle of night in her own backyard? I don't believe so. In her own walls? Don't you think her fam would notice such a thing?
What about the blood trail on her porch and driveway?
She is not in that house - JMO

Well, my comment was mainly replying to the comment about the possible smell. I was offering an idea that some people have been known to use different things to affect the rate of decomposition and cut down on the smell of a decaying body. On would hope they would have found something on the first go round. How many times have they released the house, again?

 

[raja]

One person we don't see is the sheriff.

Let’s hope he is busy interrogating someone.

 

[penguinface]

I think people are really overestimating the 'smarts' it takes to use bitcoin.

Agreed, and depending on who you bank with, it can even be easily accessible directly within your banking app as one of the investment options. That’s not to say this is what the perp has done, obviously, as it wouldn’t be anonymous, just mentioning it to demonstrate how mainstream bitcoin specifically, and crypto on the whole, have become since ten/fifteen years ago when it was more of a tech geek thing.

JMO

 

[LadyL]

The lady with the dark hair could be Maribel Goodman, if the consensus is that they are from the Pima County Attorney's Office.

looks very similar IMO