Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[stmichael]

Just some potential alternative explanations to what you consider evidence of them being a low-level criminal like LD

Though I doubt you'll be open to any of them

Some of these responses are as over-convoluted and silly as Latanas man.

But, sure you can find a multitude of alternative options for every detail in this case. All of your points reinforce what I was saying: that this was not well planned or well thought out (and several of these points were also isolated by former FBI and LEOs for the same reason). For example I point out that he leaves a very indicating label on a backpack that is exclusive to one store (and one of the "leads" in this case) and chose a backpack with reflective strips that glare on everyone's IR cameras at night. A pro choice? Very easy to avoid this, so that's sloppy. The holster issue as well. He's not familiar with guns you say, so instead of tucking a Mexican carry like most inexperienced people would or just concealing on his person, he goes out and buys a large frame poly cheapo pistol holster for a small frame semi auto then tucks it in loosely so it can fall out, and he decides to open carry it on a belt loop front and center in some cumbersome approximation of an appendix carry??? Yeah, that's not over-convoluted. Much easier for an inexperience person to tuck it in their waistband or carry on their person. So, sure he may be inexperienced, but his mindset even as a "low level criminal" is overly convoluted or just stupid (and many of these choices indicates that).

 

[KivaloNyomozo’]

Savannah Guthrie lays flowers outside missing mother Nancy's home

The Today show host was seen in an emotional video placing flowers at the growing memorial for her missing mother Nancy on Monday.

mol.im

 

[SlimPickens]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028525223344279710

Hard to watch for obvious reasons, but Annie's gut wrenching grief is particularly difficult to see. Between SG and Annie, the latter probably had the more intimate relationship with her Mom of late due to proximity and being designated caretaker/confidante/entertainment. I bet they were so close.

 

[VeronicaVaughn]

@OldPueblo Do you have any thoughts on the Pantano Wash in Tucson? Wondering if it's easily accessible and if there is a significant amount of water flowing there with the additional rains from January. Thanks for your time!

 

[submarine7]

None of this is rocket science. Anybody with a triple digit iq could plan any crime given the time to do so. There's a wealth of true crime sources to assist them. However, very few people would harm an 84 year old lady. That's taboo. To me, it's more about who would than who could.

 

[Angeleyes_7]

 

[rebel123]

Some of these responses are as over-convoluted and silly as Latanas man.

But, sure you can find a multitude of alternative options for every detail in this case. All of your points reinforce what I was saying: that this was not well planned or well thought out (and several of these points were also isolated by former FBI and LEOs for the same reason). For example I point out that he leaves a very indicating label on a backpack that is exclusive to one store (and one of the "leads" in this case) and choose a backpack with reflective strips that glare on everyone's IR cameras at night. A pro choice? Very easy to avoid this, so that's sloppy. The holster issue as well. He's not familiar with guns you say, so instead of tucking a Mexican carry like most inexperienced people would or just concealing on his person, he goes out and buys a large frame poly cheapo pistol holster for a small frame semi auto then tucks it in loosely so it can fall out, and he decides to open carry it on a belt loop front and center in some cumbersome approximation of an appendix carry??? Yeah, that's not over-convoluted. Much easier for an inexperience person to tuck it in their waistband or carry on their person. So, sure he may be inexperienced, but his mindset even as a "low level criminal" is overly convoluted or just stupid (and many of these choices indicates that).

There's no evidence to suggest that 'the gun' wasn't an imitation. All looks real, but if he was aware that NG was elderly he knows she would be none the wiser as to whether it was authentic or not.

 

[vereb]

Hard to watch for obvious reasons, but Annie's gut wrenching grief is particularly difficult to see. Between SG and Annie, the latter probably had the more intimate relationship with her Mom of late due to proximity and being designated caretaker/confidante/entertainment. I bet they were so close.

And she might also feel guilt. We have talked about Savannah possibly feeling awful in case this had anything to do with her profession or Nancy being featured on her show, but the other two siblings might also feel guilty for different reasons. Not because they had anything to do with it, but just the never-ending what ifs - what if I did this or that differently, should we have done this or that, should I have been there... (Not to say that they should feel this, of course not! But realistically, they probably do.)

 

[SMK777]

Have authorities indicated what race the perp most likely belongs to, it seem as though many consider him to be Latin/Hispanic?
Is this true? speculation, imo.

FBI said he was a male of average build, 5'9-10".
However Carlos P's arrest says something, as he is Latino.

 

[LRinCA]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028541232985862576

 

[rebel123]

None of this is rocket science. Anybody with a triple digit iq could plan any crime given the time to do so. There's a wealth of true crime sources to assist them. However, very few people would harm an 84 year old lady. That's taboo. To me, it's more about who would than who could.

If the plan was to kidnap NG for financial gain, then they failed.
As I've stated previously, the No1 priority would making the 'hostage' available to verify they are alive.

 

[K9Enzo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028525223344279710

Heartbreaking. I also think this clearly signals that SG is a united front with her sister and brother-in-law. IMO

 

[stmichael]

There's no evidence to suggest that 'the gun' wasn't an imitation. All looks real, but if he was aware that NG was elderly he knows she would be none the wiser as to whether it was authentic or not.

Yes, but there's no evidence to suggest that it was. The way he displayed it at specifically approach and that his get up would really be disadvantageous in using a live firearm had me suggesting it may be a replica used only for intimidation and coercion, and make him feel comfortable using a mismatched cheap pistol holster, cause it really doesn't matter for performance and he doesn't expect an armed male homeowner on the other side of the door. Otherwise it makes even less sense. But a lot of it was "lost in translation" to me. Anyway, I think we're alluding at the same thing LOL.

 

[emigrate]

Hard to watch for obvious reasons, but Annie's gut wrenching grief is particularly difficult to see. Between SG and Annie, the latter probably had the more intimate relationship with her Mom of late due to proximity and being designated caretaker/confidante/entertainment. I bet they were so close.

So glad her husband was with her, not only to support her but to show the public he isn't hiding out somewhere. All the people complaining about not seeing him support them and also them not visiting the memorial site, like how do people know they haven't visited it? They may have gone many times before and after media had come and gone for the day. I hope people don't give SG their opinions on her leaving to go home when she does. I don't think any of them can make everyone happy. If she goes back too soon "how could she, how heartless" and if she stays gone longer they would have something to say about that as well. I have yet to meet a perfect person and people need to leave them alone and let them do it their way.

 

[VeronicaVaughn]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028541232985862576

Wonder if his attorney advised him for this...

 

[wibbleflea]

None of this is rocket science. Anybody with a triple digit iq could plan any crime given the time to do so. There's a wealth of true crime sources to assist them. However, very few people would harm an 84 year old lady. That's taboo. To me, it's more about who would than who could.

That last sentence is so true. It also applies to the planning, though. People with triple-digit IQs and time still get caught (Dr Michael McKee, for example, or Luigi Mangione).

They overestimated their ability and planning skills. They underestimated law enforcement. This guy seems to have been able to deal with his risks very calmly and plan around them. He didn’t care about looking professional – he only cared about not getting caught.

 

[submarine7]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028541232985862576

Not PG.
LD looks way too big.

 

[FaviousM]

a backpack that is exclusive to one store

A store with 5000+ locations in the US, that's hardly specific

choose a backpack with reflective strips that glare on everyone's IR cameras at night. A pro choice?

I never suggested they were a pro, just someone spent more time on planning than I'd expect from a LD type criminal

The holster issue as well. He's not familiar with guns you say, so instead of tucking a Mexican carry like most inexperienced people would or just concealing on his person, he goes out and buys a large frame poly cheapo pistol holster for a small frame semi auto then tucks it in loosely so it can fall out, and he decides to open carry it on a belt loop front and center in some cumbersome approximation of an appendix carry??? Yeah, that's not over-convoluted. Much easier for an inexperience person to tuck it in their waistband or carry on their person. So, sure he may be inexperienced, but his mindset even as a "low level criminal" is overly convoluted or just stupid (and many of these choices indicates that).

What are you actually trying to get across with the holster bit? You're saying that someone experienced with firearms would buy a holster that doesn't fit the gun and carry it in a weird way on their waistband?

Overly convoluted =/= stupid. in fact, I'd argue that someone who thinks they're really clever would 'over convolute' things by over-engineering solutions for simple problems (your camera + spray paint point)

So in your theory that the perp isn't particularly clever or prepared for the crime, what's the explanation for the camera disconnecting at 01:47am as LE have stated, yet being back online around 02:12am to capture the porch footage and upload it to Google's servers?

That isn't some sort of 'gotcha' question either, it's something I'm genuinely interested in hearing explanations for

 

[Rick7788]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028541232985862576

Interesting...

 

[warp3dwing]

Normally there aren't vehicles parked on NG's street at night.

Given his planning, I'm not sure that this perk would have parked on the street. I'd be more inclined to think that, after smashing the back lights and disabling any cameras, if he was operating alone or perhaps even with a partner, he would have pulled in the straight driveway all the way up to the back yard and temporarily obfuscated the license plate.

But, somebody either saw a truck or there was a truck on somebody's ring or nest cam since LE were asking neighbors about a truck.

LE also seems interested in cars similar to SUVs but it could just be those are the vehicles driven by AG, SG, LD and possibly CP.

It would have been smart -- and since he was big into careful planning -- to have rented a a truck or vehicle that wasn't new or particularly noticeable from a private renter. Perhaps to have rented it for a week or 2 weeks so the person renting the vehicle wouldn't make the connection. He could have gotten a fake ID, paid in cash and rented the vehicle in Phoenix or a non-Tucson place.

Given his planning, I think he used a vehicle where he thought that he couldn't be traced to that vehicle.

All MOO.

I'd be curious to know if there are nearby cameras that normally or frequently capture random cars but captured nothing around the time the suspect is likely to have fled.

Say there are three houses with cameras on a given street. Each camera is triggered by traffic 60% of the time. So, there's a 40% chance each camera does not capture a car driving by.

That means the probability that none of the cameras capture a car driving by is: 0.40 x 0.40 x 0.40 = 0.064 (6.4%).

Therefore, there's a 93.6% chance that at least one of the cameras captured a car driving by. So, if none of them captured a car, there's a pretty good chance that a car did not drive that way at that time.

I'm not saying LE could know the specific chance a camera would capture a car on a given night, but if a road has several cameras that sometimes capture cars, the chances that at least one of them captures a car driving by is quite good. If none of them captured a car, then there probably wasn't a car.

Extrapolate this to an entire neighborhood, and I find it quite surprising there isn't a clearer understanding of egress (unless there is behind the scenes).