Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[wibbleflea]

I'd be curious to know if there are nearby cameras that normally or frequently capture random cars but captured nothing around the time the suspect is likely to have fled.

Say there are three houses with cameras on a given street. Each camera is triggered by traffic 60% of the time. So, there's a 40% chance each camera does not capture a car driving by.

That means the probability that none of the cameras capture a car driving by is: 0.40 x 0.40 x 0.40 = 0.064 (6.4%).

Therefore, there's a 93.6% chance that at least one of the cameras captured a car driving by. So, if none of them captured a car, there's a pretty good chance that a car did not drive that way at that time.

I'm not saying LE could know the specific chance a camera would capture a car on a given night, but if a road has several cameras that sometimes capture cars, the chances that at least one of them captures a car driving by is quite good. If none of them captured a car, then there probably wasn't a car.

Extrapolate this to an entire neighborhood, and I find it quite surprising there isn't a clearer understanding of egress (unless there is behind the scenes).

My guess is that the cameras capture nothing at night, being too far from the road and set to detect motion. The location of the camera at N Camino Real seems like the exception to the rule. But it would be good to see that kind of analysis!

 

[No it's not]

View attachment 649563

I took a photo of this beautiful post at the banner last Tuesday and thought about sharing it here, given all the grimness of this case. Seems like a relevant moment in the conversation.

Do you have

Let me add, the sorrow is palpable. They may never have a gravesite to visit. It really does seem they are really coming to grips with this. If you can ever really do that. How will this visit to the memorial by SG and family affect the perp? Can we expect some new communication? MOO

I believe SG (we ?) will hear from or about the perp in some shape or form. From him, if he has further revelations or demands. About him, if he was not able to live with it.

ALL IMO

-Nin

 

[snoopy100]

I'd be curious to know if there are nearby cameras that normally or frequently capture random cars but captured nothing around the time the suspect is likely to have fled.

Say there are three houses with cameras on a given street. Each camera is triggered by traffic 60% of the time. So, there's a 40% chance each camera does not capture a car driving by.

That means the probability that none of the cameras capture a car driving by is: 0.40 x 0.40 x 0.40 = 0.064 (6.4%).

Therefore, there's a 93.6% chance that at least one of the cameras captured a car driving by. So, if none of them captured a car, there's a pretty good chance that a car did not drive that way at that time.

I'm not saying LE could know the specific chance a camera would capture a car on a given night, but if a road has several cameras that sometimes capture cars, the chances that at least one of them captures a car driving by is quite good. If none of them captured a car, then there probably wasn't a car.

Extrapolate this to an entire neighborhood, and I find it quite surprising there isn't a clearer understanding of egress (unless there is behind the scenes).

i think it's possible that some neighbors' cameras did pick up a car that night, but due to how dark the area is anything useful like make/model/license plate is indistinguishable so it wouldn't be helpful for LE to release those details. IMO

 

[MadeinSweden]

When they say her pacemaker disconnected from the phone, could it also disconnect if she passed away at that time? Or is it only if she is far away from the phone?

 

[FaviousM]

When they say her pacemaker disconnected from the phone, could it also disconnect if she passed away at that time? Or is it only if she is far away from the phone?

It would stay connected when she passed, hence the 'sniffer' helicopter they employed early on.

I would expect, but don't know for certain, that if she had passed before it disconnected from the phone that LE would have been able to tell

 

[Sakura2Sophia4Lucia]

@OldPueblo Do you have any thoughts on the Pantano Wash in Tucson? Wondering if it's easily accessible and if there is a significant amount of water flowing there with the additional rains from January. Thanks for your time!

The problems with washes is that even if some of the washes had water flowing in them in January, most of the time they are fairly dry and used by a lot of dog walkers. They are flat and have scrub bushes and some cactus but generally wouldn't have good hiding points, IMO.

 

[Sakura2Sophia4Lucia]

I'd be curious to know if there are nearby cameras that normally or frequently capture random cars but captured nothing around the time the suspect is likely to have fled.

Say there are three houses with cameras on a given street. Each camera is triggered by traffic 60% of the time. So, there's a 40% chance each camera does not capture a car driving by.

That means the probability that none of the cameras capture a car driving by is: 0.40 x 0.40 x 0.40 = 0.064 (6.4%).

Therefore, there's a 93.6% chance that at least one of the cameras captured a car driving by. So, if none of them captured a car, there's a pretty good chance that a car did not drive that way at that time.

I'm not saying LE could know the specific chance a camera would capture a car on a given night, but if a road has several cameras that sometimes capture cars, the chances that at least one of them captures a car driving by is quite good. If none of them captured a car, then there probably wasn't a car.

Extrapolate this to an entire neighborhood, and I find it quite surprising there isn't a clearer understanding of egress (unless there is behind the scenes).

Agree. We just don't know which houses had ring cams that captured the road, how many of the houses had cams facing the road and what footage LE has. But, I'd be fairly certain that they have some footage from that night that they aren't sharing with us.

IMO

 

[VeronicaVaughn]

The problems with washes is that even if some of the washes had water flowing in them in January, most of the time they are fairly dry and used by a lot of dog walkers. They are flat and have scrub bushes and some cactus but generally wouldn't have good hiding points, IMO.

Thanks!

 

[korncrasy]

Tucson, AZ-Jewelers’ Security Alliance Offering $10,000 Reward for Tip That Solves Guthrie Case

Tuscon, AZ- Jewelers' Security Alliance Offering $10,000 Reward for Tip That Solves Guthrie Case.

Tuscon, AZ– As the search for Nancy Guthrie enters its third week, the Jewelers’ Security Alliance (JSA) is offering a reward of up to $10,000 for any information that leads to the capture of her kidnapper. Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of Today show coanchor Samantha Guthrie, was last seen...

jewelerssecurity.org

-Nin

Jewelers..isn’t NG’s neighbor in the gem business? Sometimes I consider if the perp got the wrong house.

 

[Sakura2Sophia4Lucia]

i think it's possible that some neighbors' cameras did pick up a car that night, but due to how dark the area is anything useful like make/model/license plate is indistinguishable so it wouldn't be helpful for LE to release those details. IMO

The full moon on the streets that night would have provided a significant amount of light which will hopefully be helpful. JMO

 

[pitbull]

Excellent point....the perp/s could have very well targeted the wrong home....

 

[SaraSmile]

Do you have


I believe SG (we ?) will hear from or about the perp in some shape or form. From him, if he has further revelations or demands. About him, if he was not able to live with it.

ALL IMO

-Nin

Your last line. About him,…not able to live with it. Take his own life? That’s an interesting idea.

Maybe if he was really a loner, not much of a job, not missed for a while.

If he was part of a family or friends group, and disappeared, l would think LE would look into a possible connection, because of the timing to the NG case.
JMO

 

[LakeRat55]

Respectfully, I disagree. Rose Canyon Lake is just over an hour from NG's home. It is part of Coronado National Forest, though, and the gates are closed during the winter months so access would be more difficult, but probably not impossible. The forest itself is 1.7 MILLION acres.

https://www.fs.usda.gov/r03/coronado/recreation/rose-canyon-lake

https://www.fs.usda.gov/r03/coronado

While anything is possible at this point, I respectfully feel it is unlikely that the perp would drive 36 miles through mountainous paths with a body in the car in the middle of the night and risk going into a closed park. While the park is huge, Rose Canyon Lake is more of a pond vs a lake, at only 6 acres and the road in is very curvey and not something most people would want to drive in the dark with incriminating evicence in your car. IF she was dropped someplace, there are literally thousands of places much closer with much lower risk. The longer the drive, the greater the chance of something going wrong. The thread I was responding to was regarding was her body in a nearby lake.

 

[Napoli]

Do you have


I believe SG (we ?) will hear from or about the perp in some shape or form. From him, if he has further revelations or demands. About him, if he was not able to live with it.

ALL IMO

-Nin

Yes WE as in WE will be informed by HL or LE if another note comes in or through another communication to SG. We as in the general public. The perp not being able to live with it is a remote possibility in my mind. jmo

 

[warp3dwing]

One-on-one with Luke Daley.

In his first sit-down interview since being detained and released in the Nancy Guthrie investigation, Luke Daley addresses it all...including that people believe it's him on the surveillance video.Full interviews with Luke and his mom Mary posted soon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028541232985862576

I was wondering when we'd see LD speak out.

He says that's not him in the camera footage, so I believe him. But he doesn't say he has nothing to do with the abduction, only that he "has nothing to do with this case," which isn't the same thing. I'm not saying this implies guilt, but if I were BW, I'd push that a bit more. (Hopefully, she did.)

I'm not sold that he's involved, but I'm looking forward to watching the whole thing. Hopefully, they haven't cut out him answering initial softball questions.

 

[SaraSmile]

While anything is possible at this point, I respectfully feel it is unlikely that the perp would drive 36 miles through mountainous paths with a body in the car in the middle of the night and risk going into a closed park. While the park is huge, Rose Canyon Lake is more of a pond vs a lake, at only 6 acres and the road in is very curvey and not something most people would want to drive in the dark with incriminating evicence in your car. IF she was dropped someplace, there are literally thousands of places much closer with much lower risk. The longer the drive, the greater the chance of something going wrong. The thread I was responding to was regarding was her body in a nearby lake.

Thank you for the local info. How far from NG’s house to a nearby cliff area next to road, or desert area with drive in, (dirt road), drop off spot? Any ideas?
JMO

 

[Rick7788]

Jewelers..isn’t NG’s neighbor in the gem business? Sometimes I consider if the perp got the wrong house.

I would say highly unlikely only because the perp surveiled it weeks before. Likely Jan 11.
If you think they got the wrong house.....twice in actuality, that would be hard to fathom.

 

[templeton]

This is so incredibly upsetting. How could someone knowing anything about this not crumble and help them. It just blows my mind that someone hasn’t caved and decided to do the right thing.

 

[SaraSmile]

Yes WE as in WE will be informed by HL or LE if another note comes in or through another communication to SG. We as in the general public. The perp not being able to live with it is a remote possibility in my mind. jmo

I agree, perp is likely basking in all the media attention, he is watching from his safe spot ( so far…). He feels very clever. JMO

 

[FaviousM]

I agree, perp is likely basking in all the media attention, he is watching from his safe spot ( so far…). He feels very clever. JMO

I much prefer the thought of the perp being riddled with anxiety waiting for the police to bust down his door any second