Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2028552436735238426

 

[stmichael]

A store with 5000+ locations in the US, that's hardly specific

I never suggested they were a pro, just someone spent more time on planning than I'd expect from a LD type criminal


What are you actually trying to get across with the holster bit? You're saying that someone experienced with firearms would buy a holster that doesn't fit the gun and carry it in a weird way on their waistband?

Overly convoluted =/= stupid. in fact, I'd argue that someone who thinks they're really clever would 'over convolute' things by over-engineering solutions for simple problems (your camera + spray paint point)

So in your theory that the perp isn't particularly clever or prepared for the crime, what's the explanation for the camera disconnecting at 01:47am as LE have stated, yet being back online around 02:12am to capture the porch footage and upload it to Google's servers?

That isn't some sort of 'gotcha' question either, it's something I'm genuinely interested in hearing explanations for

You're missing a lot of what I'm saying. I'm not making any blanket or definite proclamations either.

The backpack was Walmart exclusive. Sure, it's thousands of stores but one of the only publicized leads in this case (Walmart is providing all local receipts)., and unnecessary. Would be easy to remove or obscure the label. Why choose a backpack that has reflective strips if you're going out at night and most people know they glow big time on IR cameras. Basic stuff. Much easier quicker choices to prepare for this.

I feel a lot of data cited in this case will be revised when said and done, and there have been conflicting reports from PCSD so I can't attest to the times. You mentioned maybe he had a wifi jammer and maybe it didn't work. I posted on wifi jammers many pages back as a colleague of mine in South Africa I follow on X sees them all the time there. Wifi jammers block the signal. They do not disable the local camera and it's motion detection, so even if the wifi was being jammed a doorbell cam would go through its led glowing responses at motion detection. The masked man seemed surprised at any indication of a doorbell cam which he then fumbled to cover with latanas and clumsily removed it (allowing that to be the last forensic recording on google servers due to no sub on the service). Again, much easier ways to be prepared for this and handle it (spray paint, prying tool, etc.)

The holster is totally uncessary. It is barely functional in this pairing and circumstance. It is strange to use a pistol holster with a semi (and ineffective for a draw). It is cumbersome and ineffective to open carry on a belt loop at your crotch. Those of us who carry and our lives depond on it, don't disregard the previous points lightly--its a huge deal, but if you know your target is an elderly unarmed lady and expect no opposition then I guess it matters less, though there's always the case of being caught by LE so that's a big risk. In any case the simpler way for someone experieneced or inexperienced, would be to not have a holster at all (tuck in anywhere or in pockets, mexican carry, or just plain concealed carry on person). This is common. It's common cause it's simple and works for criminals (though I would never carry that way). Now if this was someone who bought an actual firearm and was used to using it (and doesn't have to be "experienced") would have a matching profiled holster or clip-on and conceal carry. The only reason I see for having that holster where the gun is almost falling out without the safety strap on btw, is for display (intimidation/coerecion) but even this is awkwardly achieved here, as a simple brandishing of the gun from on your person when needed would work better. Totally over-convoluted, borderline bumbling (it would fall out if he turned quickly to engage with a unexpected security guard) weird and ineffective, and poorly planned. I personally am not conviced that was a live firearm.

So it's not as simple as the skell isn't prepared, its just a string of odd and incomplete choices that to me points to a certain mindset. It would almost be easier to throw together a more effective and less conspicous outfit/rollout choices. And even a simple and inexpereinced person to go about in a simpler way to all of the points above. (even add the approximation of using PPE and yet having a "23 and me" saliva transferring bite light, yeesh). Whether this "mindset" is mental (illness, low iq, drugs) or cultural or some other disconnect I can't be sure.

 

[Napoli]

That's a really excellent point. To borrow a phrase from my sister, he stomped on a hornet's nest when he took NG. Surely an experienced criminal, who specifically targeted her, would have expected a lot of attention on the case. The massive public interest. is more difficult to predict, but IF they knew who she was, they should have expected this to get more assets assigned to the case than if someone kidnapped me. MOO

ETA: MOO

bbm Ya know, that's actually sad. I dont think more assets should have been utilized. Every organization has a mission, a vision and a protocol and procedures manual. More PUBLICITY? Yes. More assets???? Protocols, are protocols. All should be used on everyone. Reminds me of the line from Animal farm. All of the pigs in the barnyard are equal but some are more equal than others. JMO

 

[Diddian]

Not a good idea, innocent or not. Folks will parse every word, analyze every bead of sweat, ensure every blink is in sync, and every otherwise autonomic movement dissected. I imagine we'll also see photoshops of him in a mask holding lantana, and superimposed over the porch guy. Helps the slow news cycle, but not his cause.

If innocent as he insists, he should've waited until a suspect is arrested before talking.

JMO.

I agree. What’s more, this crime was likely done by a psychopath. And psychopaths lie with such ease, they can easily deceive others watching and listening to them.

So LD gains nothing with this interview insisting upon his innocence because, while an innocent person would proclaim his innocence with ease, so would a psychopathic perpetrator.

 

[Mistermagoo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028552436735238426

Really strange that she wouldn't think any of it has to do with her son. Why would they be there then in her mind? Did she think they were just going door to door with search warrants?

 

[GlobeFireCandle]

LD looks totally different in that video to the mug shot, I was suspicious before but now I don’t think it’s him (not Lantana guy anyway)

 

[maskedwoman]

The Epstein stuff. Some people have posited that her covering the victims could be motivation for some sort of 'silencing' attempt from powerful entities.

I don't buy it myself but a lot of important people are implicated and could, in theory, be capable of that sort of thing

JMO, I could accept that as a more robust theory if there had been a rash of violence or threats against numerous journalists and their families, or event journalists attacked. It would be very odd, in my view, to kidnap SG's mother at this point now that the cat is pretty far out of the bag.

 

[Rick7788]

The F.B.I keeps fumbling with the neighbors camera.I wonder if it faces NG’s garage/ driveway?

No. At least the one shown with agents inspecting was on the right side of the garage.
It doesn't catch any of NG's property.

Best case scenario for this neighbors camera is to catch anything on the street directly in front of their driveway.

 

[Trish51]

Really strange that she wouldn't think any of it has to do with her son. Why would they be there then in her mind? Did she think they were just going door to door with search warrants?

And a SWAT team? That would be alarming to anyone.

 

[Rick7788]

LD looks totally different in that video to the mug shot, I was suspicious before but now I don’t think it’s him (not Lantana guy anyway)

I think that mugshot was from his 20's. I had seen an updated photo of him so I was curious as to why they would use that photo.
It gave the impression that he is younger than he is.

 

[SMK777]

And a SWAT team? That would be alarming to anyone.

I would agree, the SWAT aspect was over the top, since this was not going to be an arrest of a suspect.

 

[wibbleflea]

[…] Trying to figure out how (he) could have pulled this off calls for creative thinking on our part, but most of us can't even imagine the why of it.[…]

It feels like one of those cases where the public can’t settle on a convincing motive till the perp is identified, probably using technology.

His behaviour and planning may allow some decent conclusions about his personality and background.

But if anyone can work out why, it would be the family. One of the siblings may think of someone and unexpectedly realise the motive. For the rest of us, I think it’s too wide open.

 

[keek]

I think that mugshot was from his 20's. I had seen an updated photo of him so I was curious as to why they would use that photo.
It gave the impression that he is younger than he is.

He's A BIT too old to be involved in the lifestyle and that of the one he was arrested with, that Kayla Day who had the fentyl and other drug. He had a gun, but I guess it's just fine there and that is because I thought he had prev charges other than the current ones. He looked like a 40 year old, which is GREAT if you are and I think he is .. I thought 20's anyway. Never too old to be involved in that lifestyle if a user and or dumbo though.

 

[maskedwoman]

There's no evidence to suggest that 'the gun' wasn't an imitation. All looks real, but if he was aware that NG was elderly he knows she would be none the wiser as to whether it was authentic or not.

There is no evidence to suggest either way, but it seems unlikely that someone kidnapping a woman from her bed and making her disappear would carry a fake gun. Especially now that it's being treated as a homicide rather than a kidnapping. Below is a link to an AZ criminal defense attorney and, according to her, in general a fake gun makes very little difference.

Can I Be Charged with a Violent Crime if the Weapon Was Fake? - Janet Altschuler

In the heat of the moment, one person may pull out a fake, yet realistic-looking weapon in an attempt to scare another individual. Although you might think that brandishing a fake weapon is harmless, the law doesn’t share this point of view. In fact, a person can be charged with a violent crime...

criminaldefensetucson.com

 

[buffalogal]

That's a really excellent point. To borrow a phrase from my sister, he stomped on a hornet's nest when he took NG. Surely an experienced criminal, who specifically targeted her, would have expected a lot of attention on the case. The massive public interest. is more difficult to predict, but IF they knew who she was, they should have expected this to get more assets assigned to the case than if someone kidnapped me. MOO

ETA: MOO

On the other hand, perhaps the person responsible wanted the publicity?

 

[Napoli]

This is so incredibly upsetting. How could someone knowing anything about this not crumble and help them. It just blows my mind that someone hasn’t caved and decided to do the right thing.

Because, they dont want to be raked over the coals and subject themselves to scrutiny from online amateur sleuths, podcasters, and weirdos. They don't want people speculating that they are inserting themselves in a crime and for what reason? Because they can never be SURE they are right and then they will be defiled and mocked. They dont want their initials all over the internet. They are letting LE handle it. I can totally understand that! They are doing what is right for them and their family. JMO

 

[NoseyRecluse]

bbm Ya know, that's actually sad. I dont think more assets should have been utilized. Every organization has a mission, a vision and a protocol and procedures manual. More PUBLICITY? Yes. More assets???? Protocols, are protocols. All should be used on everyone. Reminds me of the line from Animal farm. All of the pigs in the barnyard are equal but some are more equal than others. JMO

I agree. And having 400 agents assigned to this case??? I feel badly for all the other people with missing loved ones who get maybe 1 or 2 (maybe 5 or 6) people assigned to their case.

 

[The Zookeeper]

This is so incredibly upsetting. How could someone knowing anything about this not crumble and help them. It just blows my mind that someone hasn’t caved and decided to do the right thing.

This is heart wrenching to watch. This poor family. Whoever took Miss Nancy is a true monster. Praying for a miracle, praying for this family.

 

[warp3dwing]

Really strange that she wouldn't think any of it has to do with her son. Why would they be there then in her mind? Did she think they were just going door to door with search warrants?

Yeah, that was a really weird response. They'd break the door down to get into a room but "there really wasn't anything there." Was there not anything there or was there really not anything there?! WTH.

SWAT broke down her door and she casually thought, yeah this is probably just routine in the search for Nancy? Wow. So strange. I don't know what I'd think if SWAT busted down my door but I wouldn't be able to speculate whatsoever.

 

[rebel123]

There is no evidence to suggest either way, but it seems unlikely that someone kidnapping a woman from her bed and making her disappear would carry a fake gun. Especially now that it's being treated as a homicide rather than a kidnapping. Below is a link to an AZ criminal defense attorney and, according to her, in general a fake gun makes very little difference.

Can I Be Charged with a Violent Crime if the Weapon Was Fake? - Janet Altschuler

In the heat of the moment, one person may pull out a fake, yet realistic-looking weapon in an attempt to scare another individual. Although you might think that brandishing a fake weapon is harmless, the law doesn’t share this point of view. In fact, a person can be charged with a violent crime...

criminaldefensetucson.com

I'm merely pointing out that 'the gun' might be a fake, not on the seriousness if it were fake or real, or any difference on how the law interprets or the implications that may follow.

Interesting. I Would love a body language expert interpretation.

You don't need an expert, there's plenty of information on line. It's 'kind of straightforward'.