Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[FaviousM]

Considering he did meticulously plan this out, the one thing I cannot get past is why did he load her with blood dripping? Soon as she was in the vehicle blood is now in the vehicle. If he spent 40+ minutes at the site what was the rush to load someone bleeding?

I think he was only inside the home for 15/16 minutes though

Also if he did as much preparation as some of us think he did, he probably had the trunk lined with something to catch blood IMO

 

[nousernameimagination]

I have been lurking on this thread since the start. I think the scariest thought about it for me is if she was taken based on who her daughter is, then how will SG ever be able to live her life with a sense of freedom again. Knowing there is potentially a sick stalker out there that has probably killed her mother. How different will her kids lives be now with that fear and unknown.

My other thought since probably the second week has been, it's a very real possibility he could have taken his own life by now. It seems a likely possibility that this has turned into something much bigger than was ever planned that night. And if he has killed himself, then the chances of ever finding her body are slim. I've honestly given myself nightmares over keeping up with this thread in bed late at night!

 

[UsernameRequired]

Interesting that Luke and his mother have been unable to view the search warrant. Hopefully that warrant gets unsealed. Curious what LE had for probable cause. Guessing Luke's phone must have pinged in Nancy's neighborhood around the time she went missing. JMO

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028551888736796706

 

[moonglow123]

I thought it could be LD, I was hopeful when the raid first happened, now I don't know since it's been 2+ weeks. He is a repeated criminal, he lives close to Nancy, he resembles Porch Guy imo, but if he did it I feel like they probably could've determined it by now.

I understand why someone would've called in on a tip on him, he's a good guess and so many puzzle pieces seem to fit, but would it take this long for them to find evidence implicating him? Would he be able to cover his tracks this seamlessly? Idk.

We've had many conversations about how the homes are too dark to capture decent footage at night, but if LD had done something shady, I feel like investigators could at least piece together his movements from neighbors' Ring footage... homes are closer together and less far back from the road in his neighborhood, it seems.

 

[FaviousM]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028551888736796706

I can't be the only one who thinks he looks a bit too... chunky to be the perp, right? JMO

 

[SUNchips]

Interesting that Luke and his mother have been unable to view the search warrant. Hopefully that warrant gets unsealed. Curious what LE had for probable cause.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028551888736796706

He looks thick and has very thick hands. If he’s porch guy (I’m 100% convinced now, I’ll eat my words if he’s not MOO) then he probably wasn’t even wearing layers or more than one pair of gloves. And notice he’s clean shaven. I would be too if my facial hair was world famous from an abduction video.

My own opinion only. Can’t wait to see the entire video. Bet the FBI is extremely happy to see he did this interview.

 

[moonglow123]

I can't be the only one who thinks he looks a bit too... chunky to be the perp, right? JMO

Yeah.. they do resemble each other. But this is the first good look we're getting at LD's body and Porch Guy does seem to look a bit skinnier and taller than him... but idk...

 

[UsernameRequired]

FULL INTERVIEW [14 minutes]: Luke Daley opens up after being detained in Nancy Guthrie investigation-Says he is not the abductor and does not know who is involved-Explains what happened the night he was detained with his Range Rover outside Culver’s-addresses rumors about him and his alleged "girlfriend" impacting his life

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028583982703747475

 

[SUNchips]

FULL INTERVIEW [14 minutes]: Luke Daley opens up after being detained in Nancy Guthrie investigation-Says he is not the abductor and does not know who is involved-Explains what happened the night he was detained with his Range Rover outside Culver’s-addresses rumors about him and his alleged "girlfriend" impacting his life

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028583982703747475

Wow wow wow. MOO. I will sit on my hands now. But WOW.

 

[Mistermagoo]

SWAT breaks down your door

"Hmmm, how odd"

lol

 

[EyeCandy]

unreal how they treated him though

but IMHO he does favor lantana man ... thin lips

 

[Mistermagoo]

I believe her son, Luke was detained separately at the Culver's Restaurant while he was out picking up food. At the same time, SWAT and the Feds showed up at her house while he was gone.

This appears to be similar to the Carlos situation when SWAT detained him in Rio Rico while he and his wife were out Door Dashing and the Feds raided the mother's home simultaneously. JMO.

Understood, however, she states that she assumes they were there for the NG case, but had no idea that it could be for her sons involvement. Hence, the going door to door with search warrant comment.

 

[Sticksandspades]

I do agree with you about him using him seeming to display some incompetence and lack of planning in some of his choices: the bite light, the cheap holster and wierd open carry, not being prepared to cover the nest cam with spray paint or having a screwdriver in his pocket to take the nest cam off, the bizarre glove situation where it didn't seem possible to be able to use the gun or anything else requiring some dexterity, the list goes on.

And, because of all of those things, I initially thought he was bumbling, seemingly incompetent amateur and thought something seemed off-kilter with him.

In the last few weeks, though, I started thinking that he had spent a great deal of time planning this crime. The video was released of him being at the house prior to the crime and seeming to test NG's security system with the nest cam to possibly see if the police would be called. Then, the time lag between when he was initially on the porch and when movement was detected at 2:13 am suggested that he may have planned to go up to the nest cam and then wait in the bushes or somewhere to see if the nest cam alerted the police or NG. His masking seemed to be multiple layers and, if so, he masked his facial features fairly well. I inially didn't think that he had paid attention to it being a full moon but after somebody commented on how he'd be so much better able to see the area where he dropped NG off, that made sense to me and I was impressed that he thought about the moon. He had something in his pocket that I thought might be a walkie talkie but it also could have been a Wifi spammer, police scanner or something else that he had thought would be useful. He clearly left his phone at home and didn't just turn it off. And the fact that he didn't appear to leave DNA in the house also made me think he had planned much more carefully than he initially appeared to have planned.

Anyhow, while I do agree with the things you mentioned that seemed to display his incompetence, I've started thinking about the above things I mentioned and that in order to get away with this crime thus far, he did a lot of careful planning.

JMO

Let’s explore this along with the fact that there LE had not provided any information nor have appeared to act on any high value tips.

Is the guy amateurish/bumbling or deliberate/calculating/planner. Which traits go along with someone that was not recognized by his gait or style? Also, is porch guy the main character or the accomplice?

 

[LRinCA]

It's 88º in Tucson today. He's pretty padded up with what looks to be a heavy flannel shirt and something resembling a bulky wool vest. He and his mom look like they're dressed for different climates. Just observing/moo/etc.

He does look considerably different from that one booking photo where he's wearing a light aqua colored t-shirt. His face is thinner in that photo. I'm not sure when that photo was taken.

I'm just musing.


ETA: the booking photo I'm referring to is at this link along with a few other photos

Un hombre de Arizona detenido en una operación del SWAT niega tu relación con el secuestro Nancy

Dos exconvictos de Tucson son objeto de escrutinio en Internet por el caso Nancy , a pesar de que no hay acusaciones oficiales. Luke fue detenido en una redada del SWAT y puesto en libertad sin cargos.

noticias.foxnews.com

 

[SlimPickens]

I don't believe he's PG but couldn't clammy skin and other signs be related to drug use and not a conscience? I'm not convinced but I'm not writing off any involvement.

Indeed, and we haven't seen the full interview yet either. That was just my initial impression based on the short clip.

JMO.

 

[VeronicaVaughn]

Wow wow wow. MOO. I will sit on my hands now. But WOW.

When he said he went to his friend's house and sat on their patio, I was like WRONG ANSWER

That being said, you could definitely tell that he was nervous, and he openly admitted that. I have no idea what to make of him to be honest.

MOO.

 

[buffalogal]

Considering he did meticulously plan this out, the one thing I cannot get past is why did he load her with blood dripping? Soon as she was in the vehicle blood is now in the vehicle. If he spent 40+ minutes at the site what was the rush to load someone bleeding?

There are ways to carry something that is bloody/actively dripping blood and not get it everywhere especially if you aren't concerned with arriving with it alive.

 

[Mistermagoo]

unreal how they treated him though

but IMHO he does favor lantana man ... thin lips

Yea, that is a touchy subject. From our point of view everything looks extreme, however, I'm sure that the agents doing their job have seen situations turn against them really fast by not doing it a certain way. Either way, a judge had to sign off on the warrant, so there must have been SOMETHING that they felt might have tied him to the crime.

 

[Eli9]

unreal how they treated him though

but IMHO he does favor lantana man ... thin lips

+ large head. MOO

 

[Aquabot13]

I don't love that they haven't been able to see the warrant. Isn't that the point of a warrant? I guess the police have the authority to go in with or without his permission since they have a warrant, but I'm not in the business of just believing LE has the authority they say they have these days. JMO.

Also, several of these raids have resulted in nothing. Does SWAT just kick down your door, detain you for hours for questioning, introduce your name to international media, and then say "oops"?

I know tensions are running high and the true perp will likely be caught in a similar raid/manner. However, at this point we've seen numerous false starts, primarily against gig-working minorities, and it really rubs me the wrong way.

If I could describe this investigation in one word, it would be chaotic. As the weeks drag on and the "move fast and break things" mentality yields nothing, I hope they'll consider a change in approach.

MOO